Andray Blatche - Resurgence Thread ( Merged )

[fugop]

http://bkref.com/tiny/wsDm1

[JonathanJoseph]

Look I'm always the first guy to say 'wait and see' on Blatche. He's a bit lazy but often manages to say the right thing in interviews, even pointing up his own flaws in interviews. Self-awareness is key to improvement. However, there's ample evidence that he's putting up empty stats. If you do your same sort for players 6'10" or taller with eFG% of .45 or less then Dray finds himself in company with Kwame Brown, Manute Bol, Kevin Duckworth...

http://tinyurl.com/emptydray

And if you want to drag Griff into it: check counterpart match-up:
Dray. http://www.82games.com/1011/10WAS20.HTM#bypos
Blake. http://www.82games.com/1011/10LAC14.HTM#bypos

For the majority of the minutes they play, Dray is giving up just about exactly whatever he gets for the team, or a little less, whereas Griff is destroying his opponents and holding them below the league average.

I like him, as always he has a ton of room for development, he is 'only' 24 and should be reaching his peak any day now, one of these years, but there's no way to say that Dray has ever reached his potential or accomplished much in this league. Yet.

Doc,

I've been quite clear that I think Blatche's season was awful and that he's no where near his peak. But your conclusions above only help to distort the debate. At no point did I say that Blatche was better than Blake Griffin, and 5-man lineups heavily depend on the other 4 guys, so it seems like not the best comparision.

And the comparison to Bol, Duckworth and Kwame Brown only continues to make the point that Blatche is a different case. Bol, Duckworth and Kwame were ineffective post players, whereas Blatche is a small forward in a power forward's body. Not saying that's what we'd like to see, just noting that Blatche's lower eFG results from not understanding how to harness his talent versus being too uncoordinated to make layups.

I don't think there's any doubt that Blatche could and should shoot a better percentage, but that is a mental thing. If Blatche does shoot a higher percentage the list of players who are statistically similar grows shorter and is filled with a larger percentage of hall of fame caliber players.

The ceiling is as high on Blatche as it is on McGee and he's under a reasonable contract. Most teams wouldn't give up on that and a rebuilding team is definitely not giving up on him.

[doclinkin]

Doc,

I've been quite clear that I think Blatche's season was awful and that he's no where near his peak. But your conclusions above only help to distort the debate. At no point did I say that Blatche was better than Blake Griffin, and 5-man lineups heavily depend on the other 4 guys, so it seems like not the best comparision.

And the comparison to Bol, Duckworth and Kwame Brown only continues to make the point that Blatche is a different case. Bol, Duckworth and Kwame were ineffective post players, whereas Blatche is a small forward in a power forward's body. Not saying that's what we'd like to see, just noting that Blatche's lower eFG results from not understanding how to harness his talent versus being too uncoordinated to make layups.

I don't think there's any doubt that Blatche could and should shoot a better percentage, but that is a mental thing. If Blatche does shoot a higher percentage the list of players who are statistically similar grows shorter and is filled with a larger percentage of hall of fame caliber players.

The ceiling is as high on Blatche as it is on McGee and he's under a reasonable contract. Most teams wouldn't give up on that and a rebuilding team is definitely not giving up on him.

If. If. If.

Fact is even in his best years he compares more closely with scrubs than with HOF calibre players. And most of that is on Dray. I'm personally of the mind that the majority of the issues in his game are physical not mental --ONCOURT. Sure he takes a few stupid shots and makes a boneheaded read every now and again, but those percentages would creep up, and he'd take fewer stupid shots if he was actually able to finish contested shots on the interior. That only requires a bit of commitment in the weight room and with a proper trainer/nutritionist etc.

Those aren't the offseason stories you read about Dray though. You don't hear about him working with Tim Grover at ATTACK athletics, or the IMG academy or running hills with that madman in Cali that Gil used to work with. YOu hear about him partying at local clubs basically ever night of the week

Nor in-season. He's not in the gym with Gil at 3AM shooting jumpers nor taking the first bus to practice, etc. Anecdotes from coaches and teammates say Dray is 'the laziest most talented person' they have ever seen. That's not due to the bad example of Jamison, Caron, Gilbert whomever. Frankly you got to know that argument is a crock of shutyourmouth. If Dray weren't too lazy to pass the SAT, we couldn't have drafted him at #41 or whatever, he would have played for UConn and Jim Calhoun would have blowtorched the weak from his game.

But he is. Lazy. Now one can always hope that some part of that is a byproduct of immaturity, and at some point he'll decide he really wants to focus in life on things that matter, career, family, his future, his legacy, whatever. But so far he's had what, one offseason without incident? One Seven Day Dray spasm?

If Dray had the internal fire of any of the Hall of Famers above him on that theoretical 'IF'-list well sure. If my aunt had balls she'd have a career on the internet. Or something. If Dray had the fire of his idol (Flip's boyfriend) then we wouldn't be having this conversation. So far though he hasn't shown even a glimmer of it. That's the key frustration with the cat. He doesn't need anyone making excuses for him, period. If he is to succeed, more than anything, he needs someone riding his ass and taking him to task. Making him want to do it right. That includes his biggest fans as well as teammates, coaching staff whomever. I don't want to drop him for nothing, I want to see him actually earn the loyalty that his capital 'P' potential has engendered. So far, dude, he hasn't earned your efforts on his behalf.

[Ruzious]

And as for comparing Blake Griffin to Blatche, that's so absurd, I won't even get into that.

Whether you're tired of hearing it or not, Blatche's numbers were empty numbers. His play was garbage a lot of the time. You can talk about 16/8/2 till you're blue or green or purple in the face. It doesn't matter when you're contributing to the team losing. Wins and losses are what matters. Other teams actually realize that.

Except I'm the one using facts and you are just telling me how wrong I am (and that I'm trying to be wrong) but are unwilling to offer any proof.

As you said yourself, all that matters is winning and losing. So either Blake Griffin's numbers are also "empty", or your point is moot.

Don't tell me you're using facts when you're dismissing his poor shooting percentages by saying it's a mental thing. Do you seriously believe Blake Griffin - even as a rookie - didn't play better than his opponents - thereby making his team better?

[JonathanJoseph]

If. If. If.

Fact is even in his best years he compares more closely with scrubs than with HOF calibre players. And most of that is on Dray. I'm personally of the mind that the majority of the issues in his game are physical not mental --ONCOURT. Sure he takes a few stupid shots and makes a boneheaded read every now and again, but those percentages would creep up, and he'd take fewer stupid shots if he was actually able to finish contested shots on the interior. That only requires a bit of commitment in the weight room and with a proper trainer/nutritionist etc.

Those aren't the offseason stories you read about Dray though. You don't hear about him working with Tim Grover at ATTACK athletics, or the IMG academy or running hills with that madman in Cali that Gil used to work with. YOu hear about him partying at local clubs basically ever night of the week

Nor in-season. He's not in the gym with Gil at 3AM shooting jumpers nor taking the first bus to practice, etc. Anecdotes from coaches and teammates say Dray is 'the laziest most talented person' they have ever seen. That's not due to the bad example of Jamison, Caron, Gilbert whomever. Frankly you got to know that argument is a crock of shutyourmouth. If Dray weren't too lazy to pass the SAT, we couldn't have drafted him at #41 or whatever, he would have played for UConn and Jim Calhoun would have blowtorched the weak from his game.

But he is. Lazy. Now one can always hope that some part of that is a byproduct of immaturity, and at some point he'll decide he really wants to focus in life on things that matter, career, family, his future, his legacy, whatever. But so far he's had what, one offseason without incident? One Seven Day Dray spasm?

If Dray had the internal fire of any of the Hall of Famers above him on that theoretical 'IF'-list well sure. If my aunt had balls she'd have a career on the internet. Or something. If Dray had the fire of his idol (Flip's boyfriend) then we wouldn't be having this conversation. So far though he hasn't shown even a glimmer of it. That's the key frustration with the cat. He doesn't need anyone making excuses for him, period. If he is to succeed, more than anything, he needs someone riding his ass and taking him to task. Making him want to do it right. That includes his biggest fans as well as teammates, coaching staff whomever. I don't want to drop him for nothing, I want to see him actually earn the loyalty that his capital 'P' potential has engendered. So far, dude, he hasn't earned your efforts on his behalf.

I don't disagree with any of this and the arguments are not mutually exclusive. And that's the point.

I happen to think "lazy" is a form of "immature", and something that could (could, might, if, what-have-you) correct itself with the proper leadership, internal team influences (for example if he had to guard/be influenced by Kevin Garnett in practice every day for years rather than Antawn Jamison) or perhaps just with age. I will continue to repeat that I was both lazy and immature at the age of 24 and Zack Randolph was as well.

I have never said Blatche WILL become an all-star or HOF player, but the fact is he has the talent to do so. (Full stop).

The Wizards are a rebuilding team in the "asset accumulation" portion of the process. Blatche, being 24 and yet an "unknown", is the kind of asset that has upside and thus fits in quite nicely to the Wizards current plans. If this team were the Celtics or Spurs, you could easily see a scenario where trading Blatche makes sense.

Given Blatche's age, upside and contract AND the Wizards place in the rebuilding phase there is virtually no chance he will be traded and he is currently, at a minimum, a very capable NBA starting player (if not an efficient, winning one).

[Nivek]

I think doc nailed it pretty good. When I wrote back in January that the Wiz should trade Blatche, I tried to come up with a great player with a personality similar to Blatche's. I couldn't come up with one. Lots of different personality types, but lazy, petulant and unaccountable don't translate to being a great player or reaching one's potential.

And that's the one area where I disagree with doc. I don't think Blatche recognizes or is accountable for the flaws in his game. To the contrary -- Blatche's comments about his own play are either defensive, blame-shifting or borderline delusional. At least to me.

I'm okay with giving him some time this upcoming season to see if he's making some real changes. But I'd also be perfectly happy if they traded him for something that would help the team in the long run. And that time I'd be giving him to see if he's changed -- it wouldn't be a long time. I'd need to authentic change coming into training camp. I'd need to see that sustained throughout the season. Otherwise, you gotta move on.

[verbal8]

http://bkref.com/tiny/wsDm1

I think Drew Gooden is a good comparison for Blatche's projected production. I think Blatche's defense is a little better, but his efficiency worse. Odom level production would probably be Blatche's ceiling.

[Dat2U]

I think doc nailed it pretty good. When I wrote back in January that the Wiz should trade Blatche, I tried to come up with a great player with a personality similar to Blatche's. I couldn't come up with one. Lots of different personality types, but lazy, petulant and unaccountable don't translate to being a great player or reaching one's potential.

And that's the one area where I disagree with doc. I don't think Blatche recognizes or is accountable for the flaws in his game. To the contrary -- Blatche's comments about his own play are either defensive, blame-shifting or borderline delusional. At least to me.

I'm okay with giving him some time this upcoming season to see if he's making some real changes. But I'd also be perfectly happy if they traded him for something that would help the team in the long run. And that time I'd be giving him to see if he's changed -- it wouldn't be a long time. I'd need to authentic change coming into training camp. I'd need to see that sustained throughout the season. Otherwise, you gotta move on.

So Nivek, what type of player would you like to see Blatche traded for? Do you believe we should be dumping Blatche at all costs like some do? Even if it means taking a lesser player or worse contract in return?

[Nivek]

Nah, I'm not in the "must dump Dray" camp. At least not yet. If the Wiz couldn't get some combination of young players, solid rotation guys, solid vets, draft picks and/or cap space (not all of these, but some meaningful combination), I'd hang on to him at least into the season. I think they can dump him pretty much anytime. I wouldn't take back a worse contract for him. I think there'd be an "addition by subtraction" element to trading him, but not if it actually costs the team additional assets. I think the Wiz can get something for him.

[MF23]

Stop comparing Z Randolph to Blatche. Z has played harder and more physical than Blatche during his entire career. When Zach was fat he played hard but Blatche is one to take plays off. Blatche takes plays off every game. Blatche's motor has less to do with conditioning when he's not trying. That blame rest on him and not another person. Please.

[MF23]

DP

[dlts20]

why do so many diss Dray's percentage when he was hurt? People act like thats no factor? There is no way he shoots that percentage if he didnt miss the whole Summer and play pretty much the whole season hurt. Thats the biggest reason why his percentage sucked. I dont believe that he will shoot nearly that low if healthy

[JonathanJoseph]

Stop comparing Z Randolph to Blatche. Z has played harder and more physical than Blatche during his entire career. When Zach was fat he played hard but Blatche is one to take plays off. Blatche takes plays off every game. Blatche's motor has less to do with conditioning when he's not trying. That blame rest on him and not another person. Please.

You must be talking about some other Zack Randolph.

[MF23]

Zach is a post player. Blatche is a face up 4. Zach is a better rebounder and he's not as athletic as Blatche. Physicality and effort are prerequisites to those attributes of Zach's. So no I'm not talking about a different player.

[DaRealHibachi]

why do so many diss Dray's percentage when he was hurt? People act like thats no factor? There is no way he shoots that percentage if he didnt miss the whole Summer and play pretty much the whole season hurt. Thats the biggest reason why his percentage sucked. I dont believe that he will shoot nearly that low if healthy

He didn't shoot that great in 09-10 after AJ left either; he never was that efficient to begin with...

[montestewart]

why do so many diss Dray's percentage when he was hurt? People act like thats no factor? There is no way he shoots that percentage if he didnt miss the whole Summer and play pretty much the whole season hurt. Thats the biggest reason why his percentage sucked. I dont believe that he will shoot nearly that low if healthy

He didn't shoot that great in 09-10 after AJ left either; he never was that efficient to begin with...

His percentages in 2009-10 were marginally rather than dramatically better than the year before or after. His percentages after he became a starter in 2009-10 were marginally rather than dramatically better than before Jamison was traded. He was marginally more efficient, but the increased minutes and touches created the illusion of a dramatic leap. It was enough to give a little hope for progress, but that's all, and he backslid from there. He had a stretch toward the end of last year when he played closer to the basket, shot a bit more efficiently, rebounded better, and that gave a little hope too, but in both cases, it was just a glimmer. His career's a little frustrating.

[JonathanJoseph]

why do so many diss Dray's percentage when he was hurt? People act like thats no factor? There is no way he shoots that percentage if he didnt miss the whole Summer and play pretty much the whole season hurt. Thats the biggest reason why his percentage sucked. I dont believe that he will shoot nearly that low if healthy

He didn't shoot that great in 09-10 after AJ left either; he never was that efficient to begin with...

His percentages in 2009-10 were marginally rather than dramatically better than the year before or after. His percentages after he became a starter in 2009-10 were marginally rather than dramatically better than before Jamison was traded. He was marginally more efficient, but the increased minutes and touches created the illusion of a dramatic leap. It was enough to give a little hope for progress, but that's all, and he backslid from there. He had a stretch toward the end of last year when he played closer to the basket, shot a bit more efficiently, rebounded better, and that gave a little hope too, but in both cases, it was just a glimmer. His career's a little frustrating.

Sure. And it seems that clouds judgement.

Blatche is not the average NBA player. He has more god-given talent than most players in the NBA and his immaturity and lesser-intelligence prevents him from being able to figure out how to harness that talent.

You can't learn how to be the go-to-player seeing constant double teams without being the go-to-player and that's only been about 70-80 games.

Patience is required, despite the frustration.

[dlts20]

I disagree with those who say that Dray didnt shoot better after the trade. Again, it goes back to my same point which is health and I posted it on this board before. Remember right after the trade he had like 13 of 15 games where he shot easily over 50%. Then he badly turns his ankle against Denver and he wasnt the same again until late in the year. Its all about health

[montestewart]

^
He surely did shoot better immediately after the trade, and I'm willing to believe that some of the subsequent decline then and in the following year is related to health, but some of it comes from teams game planning for Blatche, and his drifting too far from the basket and making bad decisions. When I see him push in closer to the basket, and then score and rebound and pass and even defend better, I'm seeing a possible keeper. If he keeps drifting outside and making bad decisions, that's the Blatche I'm happy to trade for other parts.

[fugop]

Blatche's injuries aren't the result of misfortune, but poor conditioning and laziness. Using them as a rationalization doesn't fly.

I'll have a change of heart on Blatche when he walks on the court with muscle definition in his arms and without a beer belly.