2012 NBA Draft - Part V

[nate33]

Givony's Yahoo write-up

3. Washington Wizards

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: SF: 18, 6-7, 228, Kentucky, Fresh.


A very exciting piece in the Wizards' rebuilding process is on the way in Kidd-Gilchrist, who appears to be ahead of Bradley Beal on Washington's board according to reports we've received.

With the Wizards sporting the worst small forward rotation in the NBA this season, Kidd-Gilchrist could fill an immediate hole, bringing intensity and toughness that will immediately improve Washington's perimeter defense. He's one of the most competitive players in this draft. Still very much a work in progress offensively, he would form a formidable transition duo with speedster John Wall, as well as the hyper-athletic Jan Vesely.

Yikes, what happens when MKG, Wall, & Vesely streak down the court and then have to play in the half-court? This would make Crawford happy. I just don't see a MKG/Singleton SF rotation happening for us.

Agreed. It drives me crazy when people tout our formidable transition attack when the more important development is that there will be no notable improvement in our embarrassing half court offense. Teams average what, 8 points a game in transition?

And anyway, Wall by himself is a formidable transition attack. MKG will only provide only a marginal improvement.

I'm praying that this is an EG smokescreen.

[dandridge 10]

Darn, I think OKC is less-likely to part with their 28th pick the way this series is going.

But, if Harden continues to struggle and they get beat by the Heat, they may be willing to part with Harden to save some money if they can get a good draft pick in return.

[Floater]

If we get MKG, sure the team will improve on defense and get even better on fastbreaks (which they are already pretty decent) but this team will once again struggle in the half court offense. I would expect corresponding moves in FA and the 2nd round of the draft to fill those half court offense needs. Having said that, by taking MKG and having Seraphin progress like I expect, we are looking more and more like the Memphis Grizzles of the East, save for a Rudy Gay type player who some say makes the Grizzles a worse team when he is on the court.

[verbal8]

Darn, I think OKC is less-likely to part with their 28th pick the way this series is going.

But, if Harden continues to struggle and they get beat by the Heat, they may be willing to part with Harden to save some money if they can get a good draft pick in return.

Westbrook has played fairly well, but I still think he is the guy they move if they make a big move. It is not so much that Harden or Ibaka are that much better, but there seem to be a variety of options available at PG.

[bawizards]

We were 3rd in the NBA in fast break points per game and 2nd in fast break efficiency. If we got MKG we would probably bounce up to #1 in both those categories. But would probably be the worst half court team in the nba. I love MKG but thinking about it I think we are better off taking Beal. Even if MKG is a better prospect it isnt like Beal is a massive reach at 3, he is worth the pick.

[nate33]

Darn, I think OKC is less-likely to part with their 28th pick the way this series is going.

But, if Harden continues to struggle and they get beat by the Heat, they may be willing to part with Harden to save some money if they can get a good draft pick in return.

Westbrook has played fairly well, but I still think he is the guy they move if they make a big move. It is not so much that Harden or Ibaka are that much better, but there seem to be a variety of options available at PG.

I don't think so. Westbrook has some decision-making flaws, but he's got Top 10 superstar talent. He is truly unstoppable at times. He'll continue to get better as he matures. Harden is merely a very good player, perhaps top 20, but he doesn't have the same upside as Westbrook. Teams don't really game plan to stop Harden the way they have to game plan to stop Westbrook.

[Upper Decker]

Actually nate, the Wiz were 3rd in transition points this year at 18 per game. Denver had the most at 20 per game. The league high over the last 10 years was 24 by GSW in like 2006. The median fast break points last year was 13, the mean was 13.16. Last year the team average PPG was 95, so fastbreak points accounted for roughly 14% of all teams points. If the Wiz draft MKG and end up with the most fast break points in the last decade their half court PPG will still account for roughly 75% of their points.

While I'm crunching stats, here are the bottom 5 teams last year in half-court PPG.

PPG Fast Break Half Court
Boston 91.30 12.00 79.30
Detroit 90.90 13.50 77.40
Phily 92.30 15.20 77.10
Washington 93.60 17.90 75.70
Charlotte 87.00 12.70 74.30

[nate33]

I would definitely trade the #3 for Harden this offseason if OKC is interested. We could throw in Booker and Crawford if OKC wants some cheap depth.

[Ruzious]

But, if Harden continues to struggle and they get beat by the Heat, they may be willing to part with Harden to save some money if they can get a good draft pick in return.

Westbrook has played fairly well, but I still think he is the guy they move if they make a big move. It is not so much that Harden or Ibaka are that much better, but there seem to be a variety of options available at PG.

I don't think so. Westbrook has some decision-making flaws, but he's got Top 10 superstar talent. He is truly unstoppable at times. He'll continue to get better as he matures. Harden is merely a very good player, perhaps top 20, but he doesn't have the same upside as Westbrook. Teams don't really game plan to stop Harden the way they have to game plan to stop Westbrook.

I don't strongly disagree with you, but I do disagree. When you have arguably the best player in the game, I want efficient players around him - as well as productive players. Westbrook's efficiency numbers aren't close to Harden's - a TS% of .53 to an amazing .65 and an EFG of just .48 to .58. And while Westbrook has the advantage in PER, the advantage isn't large, and it's caused by Westbrook shooting more. Harden produces like a star - just as much as Westbrook. He just doesn't take as many shots. Westbrook is a helluva player and phenominal talent, but if I'm OKC, I'd rather keep Harden.

[DCZards]

Crawford would be happy, but the last thing this team would need under that circumstance is a chucker like Crawford. Ernie needs to find a way to dump Crawford and Singleton and get back some value or future picks....Crawford IMO is addition by subtraction. He could have a good role but I don't think he's willing to accept what that role would be.

I'm not so eager to trade Crawford. I'm also not convinced that he won't accept a role off the bench, especially if the Zards draft Beal and Jordan understands that Beal was drafted to start. I think Crawford can be a valuable scorer of the bench...a player capable of playing both some SG and PG.

Yes, Crawford's chucking is terribly frustrating and a momentum killer at times, but you can't question his toughness and willingness to take (and often make) the clutch shot.

[jivelikenice]

I don't think the offense is all doom and gloom.

1. Chris Singleton was an absolute non-factor offensively on the break or in the half court. MKG will be an obvious upgrade on the break. In the halfcourt offense, at WORST, he'll be an upgrade just based on his ability to move without the ball alone. I think move of us have seen a the breakdown of Singleton missing cutting lane after cutting lane when he defender cheats off. (my personal opinion is that MKG will bring more to the table and be a respectable jumper but I wanted to give more of a worst case)

2. Wall and Ves will improve their shots. Will they become great shooters? Doubtful, but Wall shot well in stretches last season. Its there, but it's confidence and playing with people who won't dominate the ball (Crawford). Vesely has a decent shot, just needs to be willing to shoot the ball. Hopefully working with shooting coaches for a full offseason will do the trick.

3. You can still get enough shooting by filling the 2 guard spot via FA or a trade, and also signing good shooters to the bench (ie Meeks, Cartier, Singleton)

4. I also think a shooter at the backup 1 is important. Not a good FA like a Dragic, but a Pargo type who can light it up in stretches and could play on the court with Wall on occasion.

5. Nene and Serpahin give us a 5 (and maybe a 4 depending on what they do up front) who can both shoot comfortably out to that 15-18 ft range.

[jivelikenice]

Crawford would be happy, but the last thing this team would need under that circumstance is a chucker like Crawford. Ernie needs to find a way to dump Crawford and Singleton and get back some value or future picks....Crawford IMO is addition by subtraction. He could have a good role but I don't think he's willing to accept what that role would be.

I'm not so eager to trade Crawford. I'm also not convinced that he won't accept a role off the bench, especially if the Zards draft Beal and Jordan realizes that Beal was drafted to start. I stil think Crawford and be a valuable scorer of the bench...a player capable of playing both some SG and PG.

Yes, Crawford's chucking is absolutely frustrating and a momentum killer at times, but you can't question his toughness and willingness to take (and often make) the clutch shot.

i love his competitiveness, but he hasn't shown an ability or willingness to harness it. Jordan also admittedly sulked after Nick Young re-signed and let that carry over to game action. I can't imagine him accepting backing up an 18-19 yr old Beal even if he's the 3rd pick, especially if Beal starts off slowly (which is likely given his transtion to the college game). It's a problem waiting to happen if you keep him around. And for every game Jordan will shoot us into, there will be 3-4 where his shooting will put us into a deeper hole.

[Ruzious]

Let me just interupt and interject - the folks just assuming MKG will be the Wiz pick are really jumping the gun.

Carry on.

[dobrojim]

Anyone think we can go non-offense with one one of our 2nd round picks. Perhaps Plumlee for front court depth if Blatche is dispatched?

I think Plumlee would be a wise choice. There is no way we get through a full season with just Nene and Seraphin at center. I like Plumlee's ceiling as a seven footer with hops and coming from a good bball program. In a couple of years I think he could be quite good.

Good point. I hadn't really thought of that but you're right. We are going to need a 3rd string center. It wouldn't hurt to keep our eyes open in the 2nd round for the right guy. We could also look for an aging veteran who will sign a 1-year vet minimum contract. Somebody like Tony Battie.

true we need to consider our options for a 3rd string C.

considering we're jsut talking about 3rd string, my choices would
be JSing and Ves. If he's not amnestied, Blatche (not that that
would be my preference, only that we are paying him).

[Dark Faze]

I've got confidence in Ernie. In the Ted era I don't know that he's made any wrong decisions, including the Ves draft pick. Who was better than Ves? Leonard? I still think Ves has higher upside. Klay Thompson? That's debatable, but I still think you can a guy 4 or 5 million per and get yourself a Klay, James Jones, Mike Miller guy pretty much whenever. It was just a bad draft. Singleton looked like a monster defender early on and fell off a bit. I still think he was a great pick. Shumpert is the only guy there that may have been better, and I'm not really sure about that. Moving Hinrich for Crawford and the 18th was a great move.

Looking forward to seeing what he does next.

[dobrojim]

We're not taking Drummond...

Drummond is the second-coming of Michael Olowokandi. I'm not worried about missing out on him.

Or the next Andrew Bynum. Bigs develop notoriously slower than everyone else. Not every stud big comes out the block like Anthony Davis. I wouldn't be so quick to write off Drummond. If our goal is to accumulate assets for a consolidation deal down the line, then drafting Drummond makes sense.

Drummond may have struggled mightily on offense all year but defensively he had made huge strides by the end of the season.

I wouldn't begrudge Ernie if he choose Drummond. It would be ballsy move if he made it, which is why I think he won't considering he's basically got two years and Drummond's best ball is probably a few years away.

[snip]
My questions are with his competitive fire. Is Drummond coachable or McGee-like in the uptake of new ideas and methods? But on McGee, Dat you are so right. Some guys just take a while to mature. The competitive fire is there with Javale. He plays Bynum better than any other big except Dwight Howard plays him. Javale has found coaches that can play him only to his strengths.

One thing I can foresee is if Drummond was the pick at 3, he would be in a great place to be mentored slowly. Wittman is direct but a good coach for developing players who are open to instruction.

Personally, I want Zeller for the Wizards because he is a grinder who knows how to play basketball. He is very intelligent, a very proficient rebounder, he knows how to run the court, he is a basketball player and NOT a great athlete. He is a better rebounder than Seraphin from what I have seen so far, despite being thin. I think Tyler Zeller is going to surprise some people. I would rather have an 80% FT shooter than a 30% shooter, but Drummond has the genetics to become a beast in time.

I continue to like Zeller (I digress) but Kevin Seraphin played Bynum WAY better than McGee
ever could. McGee has no rump to keep Bynum away from where he wants to go.
Nene almost certainly plays Bynum better as well. I continue to be wary of the idea
of picking Drummond.

[dobrojim]

Dear God, CCJ, not this argument again.

Of course there are going to be steals late in the draft who end up better than the early picks. But that doesn't mean that we will be smart enough to find that steal.

It's not a complicated concept. The earlier you pick, the more likely you are to find a star talent. Decades of data prove this. On average, the 1st pick is better than the 2nd, the 2nd is better than the 3rd, the 3rd is better than the 4th, and so on and so on.

I am not talking about the average. I am talking about having skill and an eye for talent. There is almost always a player better than 3 later in the draft. Skill comes in knowing which player it is. Just because the average says 1 is better than 2 and 2 is better than, and so on, that doesn't mean my pick at 10 won't be better than a whole lot of people's pick at 3.

CCJ -- the problem w/ your argument is that there is almost always a player better than *any draft position* later in the draft. Hence if your argument is valid, we'd need to resurrect my massive trade down strategy of a few weeks ago (3 > 6 & 11; 6 > 14 & 16; 14 > 21 & 22; 22 > 33 & 34; 33 > 40 & 41.

This leaves us with #s 11, 16, 21, 32, 34, 40, 41 & 46. Six of them acquired for #3. Truth is I believe in this strategy. I think we'd be better off. What do you think?

crazy/laughable

what are we going to do, cut 3/4 of the team so we have roster space for all
our draft picks. We can do it again next year if it works OK this year.

[DCZards]

I've got confidence in Ernie. In the Ted era I don't know that he's made any wrong decisions, including the Ves draft pick. Who was better than Ves? Leonard? I still think Ves has higher upside. Klay Thompson?

I wanted the Zards to draft Leonard with the sixth pick last year. Instead they took Ves. But I agree that Ves has more upside. Ves is almost 7 ft. tall, he's long, athletic and is very smart bball player. One of the reasonns Leonard looked to good last year was that he in a perfect situation in SA where he wasn't asked to be anything than a role player. All Kawhi had to do was play good D and be available to knock down the open shot. To his credit, he did both those things very well.

I love Klay Thompson. He's got good size and is a special shooter. A lot of teams are going to regret passing on him in last year's draft.

[dobrojim]

I was a proponent of a trade down last year. I didn't think Ves or anyone else was worthy of the sixth pick. Why EG didn't figure out a way to draft the best rebounder in college for two years running is beyond me. I think he should have been fired for that oversight. Especially considering we needed rebounding and toughness to improve.

This year, I tend to agree with many on this board that Beal is worth the 3rd pick and we should keep it unless some team blows our doors off with an offer. Following are a few issues that I've been pondering.

1. James Singleton is probably better than any pick beyond 12 or so. We should sign him.

2. Why can't Booker play small forward. His outside shot was much improved last year, he has great speed, length and toughness for the nightly battles against LJ, CA, etc. Granted he's not going to score 20pts a game but he might average 14 and 7. The challenge I guess is can he spread the floor with some 3 point effectiveness as well.

3. Another option for SF is to resign Martin. Again he's probably a better shooter that most picks in the first round. His defense is not that bad either.

4. If we get rid of Blatch or if he is his usual ineffective self then we need another center. It looks like Plumlee will be available with our high second.

5. What are the odds that we can package our late second round pick with cash to move up four or five slots to grab a better player?

1. agree - We should re-sign JSing, he would be an ideal 4-5th big who might play more
depending on matchups than that description would suppose.

2. Booker would need to be a much better ball handler in order to play 3. While his shot
was MUCH better last year, he was still not a 3 pt threat.

3. I like Martin. He should be re-signed. Why is it that at the end of the year
when we make roster adjustments and bring in new/hungry guys, we get better,
but then we let those guys go and we aren't as good the next year? You've identified
the 2 best/worst examples of this IMO, JSing and Cartier Martin. We would be well
served by bringing them back. They performed reasonably well, they know the system
and would help to build chemistry.

the 2 guys I continue to like with our seconds are Crowder and Denmon. Or Dray Green.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Let me just interupt and interject - the folks just assuming MKG will be the Wiz pick are really jumping the gun.

Carry on.

Most of the time I am disappointed when the Wizards pick is announced. I expect to hear Barnes or Drummond. No others.