Bradley Beal - Part III

[DCZards]

Missed this. In fact, in many aspects of his game, Brad has improved over his career year (something which Zards has mentioned btw -- & which I disputed: I was wrong). Per 48 minutes, he's gone from...

3.3 to 5.1 in defensive boards (55% better)
.9 to 1.5 in offensive boards (67% better)
4.8 to 6.7 assists (40% better)
.4 to 1.0 blocks (250% better)
1.5 to 1.8 steals (20% better)

Only exceptions are

2.8 to 3.7 turnovers (32% increase)
3.0 to 3.9 fouls (33% increase)

All in all, that's terrific development. How about scoring? He's gone from

53.8% to 54.2% in 2-pt. %
40.3% to 35.2% in 3 pt. %
82.5% to 80.1% in FT %

7.42 to 8.78 made 2s -- up 2.72 points
3.99 to 3.27 made 3s -- down 2.16 points
5.03 to 5.04 made FTs -- up .01 points

He's scoring .6 more points per 48 (31.8 > 32.4). But it's on 1.8 more FGAs & .2 more FTAs, which is why his TS% is down from 60.4% in 2016-17 to 57.3% this year. If he scored 1.7 more points per 48, he'd be back to 60.3% TS% -- infinitesimally lower than 2 years ago, but on a bit higher usage.

Brad's having his 2d best year. Close to 2 years ago, meaningfully up from last year.

…and Beal is doing this as the focus of the other team’s defense and, unlike 2 years ago, without the benefit of playing next to another all-star. That’s why I consider this BB’s best year… not his 2nd best year.

[payitforward]

It's a pretty good point, Zards -- esp. when you consider that in most areas where his numbers don't reflect being the other team's focus (rebounds, blocks, steals, assists) he's simply better.

[nate33]

Beal's numbers since Wall went down:




Gilbert Arenas' 3-year peak:



Beal has been better than prime Arenas.

[tontoz]

Props to Beal for continuing to bring it in a lost season. Hopefully one day he can play on a team that is actually a contender. It won't be here.

[nate33]

Beal has made 55 out of his last 56 free throws.

[queridiculo]

Beal has made 55 out of his last 56 free throws.

Also, only 3 turnovers on 47 FGAs since the break.

In February Beal is averaging 30.9 ppg on .522 from the field despite a relatively pedestrian .328 from three. On top of that 7.1 assists, 5 rebebounds, 1.6 steals and he's getting to the line nearly 8 times a game.

If the Wizards hadn't prematurely extended Wall they'd be in a great position to make a splash in free agency.

[Dark Faze]

Beal is probably gonna end up averaging 26, 5, and 5 this year...which is terrifying close to "could make an all NBA team" territory.

WTttttttf do we do? We can't pay two players a supermax.

[payitforward]

Beal's numbers since Wall went down... better than prime Arenas.

The result being that he's now more productive overall on the current season than he was in 2016-17. That is a very good thing, as it makes it possible to think that he may continue to improve.

Btw, I don't think prime Arenas was as good as Wall's one best season -- 2016-17 -- tho obviously Wall would come down if we added the years on either side of that to equal the 3-year stretch you're citing for Arenas. Am I right?

[nate33]

Btw, I don't think prime Arenas was as good as Wall's one best season -- 2016-17 -- tho obviously Wall would come down if we added the years on either side of that to equal the 3-year stretch you're citing for Arenas. Am I right?

I agree. I love Arenas, and he was definitely the most fun Wizard to watch in my lifetime; but I think peak John Wall was a bit better. Arenas was really disappointing on defense on a nightly basis. Wall was merely inconsistent, with bouts of exceptional defense and bouts of lazy D. But Wall would play D in important games and during the playoffs.

Arenas might be better than Wall if he played in this era though. But you have to judge a player based on the era he played.

[nate33]

Beal is probably gonna end up averaging 26, 5, and 5 this year...which is terrifying close to "could make an all NBA team" territory.

WTttttttf do we do? We can't pay two players a supermax.

Beal will have to beat out at least two of Kemba, Westbrook and Simmons (and maybe throw in Lowry in the mix). I just don't see that happening on a team that's going to finish with maybe 34 wins.

[Dark Faze]

Beal is probably gonna end up averaging 26, 5, and 5 this year...which is terrifying close to "could make an all NBA team" territory.

WTttttttf do we do? We can't pay two players a supermax.

Beal will have to beat out at least two of Kemba, Westbrook and Simmons (and maybe throw in Lowry in the mix). I just don't see that happening on a team that's going to finish with maybe 34 wins.

I don't have much faith in Simmons making it. He's been getting the side eye from a lot of people this year, and Embiid is taking the lions share of the credit for their record. Agreed on Kemba and Westbrook...though Kemba or Brad is completely dependent on record. Hornets have the edge, but trusting in them to stay ahead of us is dicey.

[Illmatic12]

Beal has made 55 out of his last 56 free throws.

This is honestly the greatest development I’ve seen from him this season.

The fact that he is hitting his FTs shows me that he’s more locked in than ever and possibly achieved a higher level of mental focus.

[tontoz]

Beal has made 55 out of his last 56 free throws.

This is honestly the greatest development I’ve seen from him this season.

The fact that he is hitting his FTs shows me that he’s more locked in than ever and possibly achieved a higher level of mental focus.

Where did that come from? Foul shooting has never been a strong suit.

It always looked to me like he had a little hitch in his form when he shot free throws.

[Shanghai Kid]

Beal's numbers since Wall went down:




Gilbert Arenas' 3-year peak:



Beal has been better than prime Arenas.

25 game simple size.

Pretty sure Arenas once had a month where he averaged 35ppg and the team went something like 13-4.

Your also not listing the rest of the impact stats. For example, Arenas lead the ENTIRE league in OBM in 07.

[Shanghai Kid]

Beal has taken a next step. But his overall impact stats don't seem that impressive.

Still its nice to see he can carry the scoring load on a bad team.

[payitforward]

I don't have much faith in Simmons making it. He's been getting the side eye from a lot of people this year, and Embiid is taking the lions share of the credit for their record....

Huh??? You are so utterly off base it's amazing.

Simmons has played 2000 minutes of incredible basketball this year. He killed it last year, & he's up noticeably this year. Embiid is too, btw -- but that doesn't make Simmons any less remarkable. He's one of the top 10 players in the game -- right now, in his 2d year.

[nate33]

Beal's numbers since Wall went down:




Gilbert Arenas' 3-year peak:



Beal has been better than prime Arenas.

25 game simple size.

True. I didn't say Beal IS better than Arenas. I merely observed that over the past 25 games, he has played better than Arenas' 3-year peak (or any of his 1-year peaks, incidentally).

[nate33]

I don't have much faith in Simmons making it. He's been getting the side eye from a lot of people this year, and Embiid is taking the lions share of the credit for their record....

Huh??? You are so utterly off base it's amazing.

Simmons has played 2000 minutes of incredible basketball this year. He killed it last year, & he's up noticeably this year. Embiid is too, btw -- but that doesn't make Simmons any less remarkable. He's one of the top 10 players in the game -- right now, in his 2d year.

I still say that Beal straight up for Simmons might really help both teams.

[payitforward]

...Simmons has played 2000 minutes of incredible basketball this year. He killed it last year, & he's up noticeably this year. Embiid is too, btw -- but that doesn't make Simmons any less remarkable. He's one of the top 10 players in the game -- right now, in his 2d year.

I still say that Beal straight up for Simmons might really help both teams.

It's hard to think of a trade that doesn't help one team, so I partly agree --

I'd say that Philly w/ Beal in place of Simmons would be a .500 team or just a bit better. The Wizards w/ Simmons in place of Beal would be a .500 team or a bit worse.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

“I’m different than a lot of people, I hate change,” Beal told Yahoo Sports’ Chris Haynes. “I hate being different. You know, I hate all of that… if I can, 100 percent, I’d die in that Wizards jersey. Until that day comes, I’m going to just duke it out day by day, play out my contract. If they want me, I’m staying. If they don’t, it was great.”

Beal isn't getting traded. I'm fine with this. I don't think there's a trade out there that would bring back fair value anyway. It's just too hard to find a win-now team that has enough expendable assets to trade.