Deni Avdija

[arusinov]

Deni is puzzling me a bit (in advance, I will say he is only 21). But when he was inserted in the starting lineup he seemed to struggle (or was that just me)?

Either way he is a bright spot. But he definitely needs to continue to work on his 3 point shot and handles.

Well. Today Deni kind of explained what he thinks about his offense: ""I can tell you that I can do so much more on the offensive part - that I can be more aggressive; also driving from the left side, being more creative, but right now that's my role, and I'm currently doing what is the best for the team. My bread & butter is the defense."

Kind of: I can score much more, but don't have green light and stay disciplined

I admire the confidence, but I think the team is handling him properly. I don't really think Avdija can efficiently take on much more offensively than he currently is handling. He is doing fine right now attacking a scrambling defense, or taking open 3's when available. I do like that he is doing a little more probing of the defense when he puts the ball on the floor. He used to play hot potato with the ball like he didn't even want it.

I believe that Deni can score twice more than his current averages without doing anything fancy or unusual for him.

* A lot of times the opposite team (knowing Deni is low usage player) is trying to "hide" smallish guard or bad defender on Deni on defense. Avdija is good post-up player and the post-up play should be devised each and every time it's attempted (or when Deni just gets small guard on him after p&r on in transition like 6'1" Garland). It was very painful to see how last year someone like Lillard was "rested" while "defending Deni" whilae in fact he could defend him no more successful than he could defend LeBron. The more important thing though is: Deni can also score a lot in post against not big and not particularly good wing defenders which he got on him quite typically (like Satoransky or Oubre)

* Every time Deni gets someone like Love or Valanciunas on switch , he can and should go to the basket. They have absolutely no chance to handle him on perimeter. And once again a lot of defenders assigned on Deni aren't quick enough to stop his penetration. One typical case being... Luka Doncic (to be fair he was somewhat injured that day)

I do think it's mindset not abilities issue... and why do I believe it's the case: when I said that Deni was extremely rare case of a teenager which was considered good defender in Euroleague and among other things spoke about him carrying Israel U20 to Euro U20 gold on defense even more than on offense with 2.4 blocks per game (2nd in tournament) and 3.3 blocks per game at deciding QF / SF / Finals stretch I was continuously told that it's irrelevant and Deni just can't be quick and strong enough to defend well in NBA.

So now I'm saying same thing about his offensive abilities to post-up smaller defenders, blow slower defenders, finish at rim through contact, play p&r as ball handler, and occasionally go ISO against his defender...

[Dolevi]

Well. Today Deni kind of explained what he thinks about his offense: ""I can tell you that I can do so much more on the offensive part - that I can be more aggressive; also driving from the left side, being more creative, but right now that's my role, and I'm currently doing what is the best for the team. My bread & butter is the defense."

Kind of: I can score much more, but don't have green light and stay disciplined

I admire the confidence, but I think the team is handling him properly. I don't really think Avdija can efficiently take on much more offensively than he currently is handling. He is doing fine right now attacking a scrambling defense, or taking open 3's when available. I do like that he is doing a little more probing of the defense when he puts the ball on the floor. He used to play hot potato with the ball like he didn't even want it.

I believe that Deni can score twice more than his current averages without doing anything fancy or unusual for him.

* A lot of times the opposite team (knowing Deni is low usage player) is trying to "hide" smallish guard or bad defender on Deni on defense. Avdija is good post-up player and the post-up play should be devised each and every time it's attempted (or when Deni just gets small guard on him after p&r on in transition like 6'1" Garland). It was very painful to see how last year someone like Lillard was "rested" while "defending Deni" whilae in fact he could defend him no more successful than he could defend LeBron. The more important thing though is: Deni can also score a lot in post against not big and not particularly good wing defenders which he got on him quite typically (like Satoransky or Oubre)

* Every time Deni gets someone like Love or Valanciunas on switch , he can and should go to the basket. They have absolutely no chance to handle him on perimeter. And once again a lot of defenders assigned on Deni aren't quick enough to stop his penetration. One typical case being... Luka Doncic (to be fair he was somewhat injured that day)

I do think it's mindset not abilities issue... and why do I believe it's the case: when I said that Deni was extremely rare case of a teenager which was considered good defender in Euroleague and among other things spoke about him carrying Israel U20 to Euro U20 gold on defense even more than on offense with 2.4 blocks per game (2nd in tournament) and 3.3 blocks per game at deciding QF / SF / Finals stretch I was continuously told that it's irrelevant and Deni just can't be quick and strong enough to defend well in NBA.

So now I'm saying same thing about his offensive abilities to post-up smaller defenders, blow slower defenders, finish at rim through contact, play p&r as ball handler, and occasionally go ISO against his defender...

I'm just waiting for next year, when he gets more key role and upgrades his offensive game in his 3rd year, he's gonna be a problem in the P&R situations, and he will shine under a playmaker role. No doubt. He was never a catch & shoot player. All his highlights are flashy passes and plays through the dribble. Mostly in transition game while he's using his speed despite his size and length. You add all that to his high level BBIQ, and you have a very rare and uniqe player.

[nate33]

I admire the confidence, but I think the team is handling him properly. I don't really think Avdija can efficiently take on much more offensively than he currently is handling. He is doing fine right now attacking a scrambling defense, or taking open 3's when available. I do like that he is doing a little more probing of the defense when he puts the ball on the floor. He used to play hot potato with the ball like he didn't even want it.

I believe that Deni can score twice more than his current averages without doing anything fancy or unusual for him.

* A lot of times the opposite team (knowing Deni is low usage player) is trying to "hide" smallish guard or bad defender on Deni on defense. Avdija is good post-up player and the post-up play should be devised each and every time it's attempted (or when Deni just gets small guard on him after p&r on in transition like 6'1" Garland). It was very painful to see how last year someone like Lillard was "rested" while "defending Deni" whilae in fact he could defend him no more successful than he could defend LeBron. The more important thing though is: Deni can also score a lot in post against not big and not particularly good wing defenders which he got on him quite typically (like Satoransky or Oubre)

* Every time Deni gets someone like Love or Valanciunas on switch , he can and should go to the basket. They have absolutely no chance to handle him on perimeter. And once again a lot of defenders assigned on Deni aren't quick enough to stop his penetration. One typical case being... Luka Doncic (to be fair he was somewhat injured that day)

I do think it's mindset not abilities issue... and why do I believe it's the case: when I said that Deni was extremely rare case of a teenager which was considered good defender in Euroleague and among other things spoke about him carrying Israel U20 to Euro U20 gold on defense even more than on offense with 2.4 blocks per game (2nd in tournament) and 3.3 blocks per game at deciding QF / SF / Finals stretch I was continuously told that it's irrelevant and Deni just can't be quick and strong enough to defend well in NBA.

So now I'm saying same thing about his offensive abilities to post-up smaller defenders, blow slower defenders, finish at rim through contact, play p&r as ball handler, and occasionally go ISO against his defender...

I'm just waiting for next year, when he gets more key role and upgrades his offensive game in his 3rd year, he's gonna be a problem in the P&R situations, and he will shine under a playmaker role. No doubt. He was never a catch & shoot player. All his highlights are flashy passes and plays through the dribble. Mostly in transition game while he's using his speed despite his size and length. You add all that to his high level BBIQ, and you have a very rare and uniqe player.

I agree. I didn't mean to imply that Avdija's offensive ceiling was that of a low usage player. I just think that's his best role at the moment. He'll continue to improve with more experience and practice. I definitely see him becoming more of an offensive facilitator down the road.

[tontoz]

I agree with Nate. I think the team is handling him fine. No need to rush him into a larger role. Keep in mind he has played only 85 games total.

I am pretty comfortable projecting him as our long term starter at the 4 but it doesn't have to happen this year.

Remember that Beal didn't even average 20 ppg until year 5 even though he had all the minutes and touches he could handle from day 1.

[dckingsfan]

I am pretty comfortable projecting him as our long term starter at the 4 but it doesn't have to happen this year.

And with Gafford penciled in as the starting C - you have a pretty solid defensive rotation going forward. Okay, now for the other 13 players...

[Dolevi]

I agree with Nate. I think the team is handling him fine. No need to rush him into a larger role. Keep in mind he has played only 85 games total.

I am pretty comfortable projecting him as our long term starter at the 4 but it doesn't have to happen this year.

Remember that Beal didn't even average 20 ppg until year 5 even though he had all the minutes and touches he could handle from day 1.

Didn't know that. Surprising.

[tontoz]

I agree with Nate. I think the team is handling him fine. No need to rush him into a larger role. Keep in mind he has played only 85 games total.

I am pretty comfortable projecting him as our long term starter at the 4 but it doesn't have to happen this year.

Remember that Beal didn't even average 20 ppg until year 5 even though he had all the minutes and touches he could handle from day 1.

Didn't know that. Surprising.

Beal was consistently awful in pick and roll situations. It was embarrassing. He settled for 2 pt jumpers too often which he sucked at. He didn't get to the foul line much and didn't shoot them well when he did get there.

The only thing he did well his first 4 years was make 3s and now he can't do that.

[Runner300]

Deni was 5/6 last night.
He could've been 2/6 which is not unusual for him, Wizards could've lost and we'd be sending him to G-League today.

[arusinov]

Deni was 5/6 last night.
He could've been 2/6 which is not unusual for him, Wizards could've lost and we'd be sending him to G-League today.

I would look for other things that specific game 5/6
Like:
In the December Deni plays 21.5 minutes per game scoring 8.5 ppg (which is 14.3 pts per 36 min) on 50.0 FG%, 37.9 3P%, 88.9% FT%.

Deni started the season returning from rather significant injury so there were a lot of "yips" but his scoring is improving continuously - it was:
4.7 ppg on 44.8 TS% in October,
6.5 ppg on 53.1 TS% in November
and as already said 8.5 ppg this month on 60.7 TS%
with USG% going up from 12.6 to 13.5 to 16.6

Currently Deni's EFG% of 52% is 3rd best among players in rotation behind only Gafford and Harrell (e.g. he has best EFG% among all wings and guards) and also Deni has together with KCP the best TS% of 54.5% among all wings and guards in the rotation

Speaking about advanced metrics... According to RAPTOR metric Deni is ranked 7th (among 250 with most minutes played till now) on defense and 23rd overall. He is also placed 15th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus

Also as probably already said Deni has best on/off among players in Wizards rotation with +12.3 and 2nd best (after Kispert which played just 340 min and had hm... privilege to almost never share court with Bertans which is both statistically and actually one of worst players in NBA this year ) +/- of 4.5

[arusinov]

I agree with Nate. I think the team is handling him fine. No need to rush him into a larger role. Keep in mind he has played only 85 games total.

I am pretty comfortable projecting him as our long term starter at the 4 but it doesn't have to happen this year.

Remember that Beal didn't even average 20 ppg until year 5 even though he had all the minutes and touches he could handle from day 1.

Didn't know that. Surprising.

Beal was consistently awful in pick and roll situations. It was embarrassing. He settled for 2 pt jumpers too often which he sucked at. He didn't get to the foul line much and didn't shoot them well when he did get there.

The only thing he did well his first 4 years was make 3s and now he can't do that.

Well, there's no agreement what would be best for Deni and for Wizards...
Some think that Deni should try all kinds of "funny" stuff (step-backs 3p, euro-steps finishes, whatever) even if FG will go down and there will be a lot turnovers (all the way to the opinion that it would be better to do those things in G-league than be low usage bench player). Others think that everything is just fine and no need to force any changes...

I'm quite sure that lack of improvement on offensive side and not closing tight games will stunt the player development (especially after the rookie season which was mostly lost due to horrible coaching, problematic...team's hm... playing style and injury).

On other hand the team is not DET or OKC... It tries to stay competitive. It has established star and many vets and so on.

But there's no reason to believe that using Deni in more (hopefully - in large majority) closing line-ups will harm the team as he's one of the best for the team's success players in the rotation this year.
And as explained above he can produce much more on offense without doing fancy stuff - just getting chance to execute things he already does well enough more frequently

[dckingsfan]

Deni was 5/6 last night.
He could've been 2/6 which is not unusual for him, Wizards could've lost and we'd be sending him to G-League today.

I would look for other things that specific game 5/6
Like:
In the December Deni plays 21.5 minutes per game scoring 8.5 ppg (which is 14.3 pts per 36 min) on 50.0 FG%, 37.9 3P%, 88.9% FT%.

Deni started the season returning from rather significant injury so there were a lot of "yips" but his scoring is improving continuously - it was:
4.7 ppg on 44.8 TS% in October,
6.5 ppg on 53.1 TS% in November
and as already said 8.5 ppg this month on 60.7 TS%
with USG% going up from 12.6 to 13.5 to 16.6

Currently Deni's EFG% of 52% is 3rd best among players in rotation behind only Gafford and Harrell (e.g. he has best EFG% among all wings and guards) and also Deni has together with KCP the best TS% of 54.5% among all wings and guards in the rotation

Speaking about advanced metrics... According to RAPTOR metric Deni is ranked 7th (among 250 with most minutes played till now) on defense and 23rd overall. He is also placed 15th in Defensive Box Plus/Minus

Also as probably already said Deni has best on/off among players in Wizards rotation with +12.3 and 2nd best (after Kispert which played just 340 min and had hm... privilege to almost never share court with Bertans which is both statistically and actually one of worst players in NBA this year ) +/- of 4.5

You are just being trolled here. Deni isn't going back to the G-League (you noted is +/-) any more than they are going to send KCP, Beal or Bertans to the D-League.

Just let this one go...

[tontoz]

Frankly i suspect that Wes has already made the decision to play Deni more. Kuzma has a TS of 47% this month and his rebounding has fallen off a cliff.

Meanwhile Deni's TS this month is 60.7% and his usage rate is climbing. There is something to be said for making young players earn their time which Deni is doing.

[dckingsfan]

Frankly i suspect that Wes has already made the decision to play Deni more. Kuzma has a TS of 47% this month and his rebounding has fallen off a cliff.

Meanwhile Deni's TS this month is 60.7% and his usage rate is climbing. There is something to be said for making young players earn their time which Deni is doing.

This. And within the context of where they can make a difference.

[nate33]

Frankly i suspect that Wes has already made the decision to play Deni more. Kuzma has a TS of 47% this month and his rebounding has fallen off a cliff.

Meanwhile Deni's TS this month is 60.7% and his usage rate is climbing. There is something to be said for making young players earn their time which Deni is doing.

Exactly. I don't see how this is even a discussion. Deni is progressing very nicely under Wes Jr. It's a welcome change from the Brooks regime. Wes is letting Deni earn his minutes, and as he does, Wes is giving him more and more. Also, by not starting him, Wes is probably helping to shield Deni from The Scouting Report, making things a bit more easier for him and building his confidence.

[DCZards]

I'm quite sure that lack of improvement on offensive side and not closing tight games will stunt the player development (especially after the rookie season which was mostly lost due to horrible coaching, problematic...team's hm... playing style and injury).

Lack of improvement on offense? I'm seeing Deni improve offensively with each passing game. He's growing more confident in his ability to take defenders off the dribble, his playmaking skills are slowly emerging and his 3 ball shooting has improved considerably.

When Wes Jr. took the Zards job one of the first things he said was that he was excited to help Deni fulfill his potential. It's pretty obvious that Deni's development of a player is a priority for both the Zards and its head coach.

[dckingsfan]

I'm quite sure that lack of improvement on offensive side and not closing tight games will stunt the player development (especially after the rookie season which was mostly lost due to horrible coaching, problematic...team's hm... playing style and injury).

Lack of improvement on offense? I'm seeing Deni improve offensively with each passing game. He's growing more confident in his ability to take defenders off the dribble, his playmaking skills are slowly emerging and his 3 ball shooting has improved considerably.

When Wes Jr. took the Zards job one of the first things he said was that he was excited to help Deni fulfill his potential. It's pretty obvious that Deni's development of a player is a priority for both the Zards and its head coach.

Code: Select all

Month      G    MP     FG%    3P%      FT%     TS%    USG%   ORtg
October     6   120   0.308   0.250   0.750   0.448   12.6    96
November   15   338   0.446   0.308   0.579   0.531   13.5   106
December   10   214   0.500   0.379   0.889   0.607   16.6   112

[tontoz]

Seriously it wasn't long ago that Deni was scared to shoot and missing routine layups.

[Dolevi]

I'm quite sure that lack of improvement on offensive side and not closing tight games will stunt the player development (especially after the rookie season which was mostly lost due to horrible coaching, problematic...team's hm... playing style and injury).

Lack of improvement on offense? I'm seeing Deni improve offensively with each passing game. He's growing more confident in his ability to take defenders off the dribble, his playmaking skills are slowly emerging and his 3 ball shooting has improved considerably.

When Wes Jr. took the Zards job one of the first things he said was that he was excited to help Deni fulfill his potential. It's pretty obvious that Deni's development of a player is a priority for both the Zards and its head coach.

Code: Select all

Month      G    MP     FG%    3P%      FT%     TS%    USG%   ORtg
October     6   120   0.308   0.250   0.750   0.448   12.6    96
November   15   338   0.446   0.308   0.579   0.531   13.5   106
December   10   214   0.500   0.379   0.889   0.607   16.6   112

Beautiful stats. Love that process. The sky is the limit for this kid. Just needs to keep his hard working method, be humble and ready to take the opportunities. He's gaining confidence from his defense for sure.

[payitforward]

So... are we agreed? Deni is doing really well. Ok, glad that's settled!

[tontoz]

Let me know if you guys can see this vid. I just had to record this off my TV. The look on deni's face was priceless.

After clicking the link I think you have to hit the image to get the vid to play.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/W1L5zYZ4A3gSTZNo9