Arenas Traded for Rashard Lewis

[TGW]

I honestly think Gilbert has worse trade value than he did when he was traded for Lewis. I think he's officially the worst contract in the league.

[JonathanJoseph]

The problem with your argument is that Gil was a 16 per PG with the Wizards.

But you seem to be missing the point, which is that given another season of playing his way through his struggles, he probably brings his PER back up to 16-18 and is only owed ~$40M, which surely raises his trade value and opens up new options.

No, you are the one that is missing the point. Gil was already a 16 per PG with the Wizards, and he had no trade value. Getting him up to 18 would not have added all that much. Furthermore, since Gil is so unproductive as a SG, the only way to get him up to an 18 per overall is to play him exclusively as a PG which means Wall languishes on the bench.

Why won't you acknowledge that keeping Gil means Wall has to languish on the bench so that Gil can play his way to an 18 per and up his trade value?

Because that's ridiculous.

1) There's no reason that Wall and Arenas couldn't have played together. It's simply a canard. Is Arenas better with the ball in his hands? Sure, but that doesn't mean that one had to be on the bench at all times. Somehow Stephen Curry and Monte Ellis play well together even though both need the ball in their hands.
2) Arenas trade value was limited MOSTLY by his health issues. If he had played 75-80 games without knee problems and another year of his contract goes away then his trade value would have gone way up.

I'm the only one who seems to be willing to acknowledge that there is all sorts of grey area here. You can't declare a winner or loser to this trade yet and I'm only suggesting that "selling low" was a bad strategy. It seems insane to me that everyone is insisting that I'm 100% wrong about something subjective in nature.

[Jimmy Recard]

Gil doesn't even look the same player out there, even in his body language. Its sad really. Never thought i'd see the day where Gil played with no confidence. He's just horrible in every aspect right now. Hope he turns the corner soon..

[Illuminaire]

Those are very interesting stats on PER after injuries, Jonathon.

I think with the Arenas situation, though, things are complicated by how fragile his psyche is right now. Gilbert is a mess psychologically. He's suffered extremes of professional, social, and romantic failure all within a three year window, and is clearly reeling from the emotional immensity of it all. I'm not sure how you quantify that, but I think it's fair to consider that Arena is still very, very injured - inside.

I don't believe you will see Gilbert "bounce back" to a respectable PER until he's experienced some healing of his mind and heart. The problem is, his current relational saga could drag out until next season, especially with three kids involved and a potential gold-digger settling in like a tick to suck out as much of his money as possible. It's hard for me to picture Gil playing with confidence and emotional clarity any time in the next two years... after which he then has to deal with the added weight of continued under-achievement and constant negative scrutiny in his profession of choice.

There is a very sad, very real chance that Gilbert will be a damaged player for the rest of his career. That sucks. That sucks a lot. But there it is.

[leswizards]

Because that's ridiculous.

1) There's no reason that Wall and Arenas couldn't have played together. It's simply a canard. Is Arenas better with the ball in his hands? Sure, but that doesn't mean that one had to be on the bench at all times. Somehow Stephen Curry and Monte Ellis play well together even though both need the ball in their hands.

Monta Ellis has a 20 plus per as a SG. Arenas had a 8.6 per as a SG this season for the Wizards, and his per as a SG for Orlando is probably even smaller. What facts do you have that Arenas could have been a capable SG? As far as, I can see there are none. His only way to raise his per and trade value was by playing PG which means Wall languishes on the bench.

2) Arenas trade value was limited MOSTLY by his health issues. If he had played 75-80 games without knee problems and another year of his contract goes away then his trade value would have gone way up.

That is false. His trade value was also limited by the fact that no team that dreams of landing Carmello is going to trade for Arenas' contract (that eliminated the Knicks and Nets). His trade value was also limited by the fact that no rebuilding team was likely to want to take on his contract (that eliminates nearly all the bottom dwellers like Golden State, Minnesota, etc). His trade value was also limited by the fact that nearly all the contenders have either a better PG (eliminating Boston, New Orleans, Utah, San Antonio, Dallas etc) or they have a more cost effective PG (eliminating Atlanta, Portland, etc). Really there were only four teams in the NBA that had a need for Arenas' services. Those teams were the Clippers (because they had a worse PG with just as nearly as bad contract in Baron Davis), the Lakers, the Heat, and the Magic. The Lakers and the Heat could never have absorbed Arenas' contract. That left the Wizards 2 options. Take on Baron Davis' contract or take on Rashard Lewis' contract. It seems to me the Wizards got the best deal possible, and another season of Gil taking minutes from Wall was not worth the hope that somehow these fundamental market problem would suddenly turn in the Wizards' favor.

I'm the only one who seems to be willing to acknowledge that there is all sorts of grey area here. You can't declare a winner or loser to this trade yet and I'm only suggesting that "selling low" was a bad strategy. It seems insane to me that everyone is insisting that I'm 100% wrong about something subjective in nature.

Yes selling low is a bad strategy, but so is throwing good money after bad. And so is investing on emotion rather than facts. You would have the Wizards continue to throw good money after bad into Gil even though it costs playing time for Wall, and you are basing your investing decision on the emotional belief that some team is going to come around to valueing Gil just as highly as you do.

[SumTingWong]

As an avowed Gilbert fan this whole mess breaks my heart but in retrospect I think the Wizards were wise to trade him to the first suitor with a reasonable offer.

He's playing like a jittery fill-in scrub on a 10 day contract that's scared he's gonna get cut any day now. There is no aspect of his game that flashes anything special.

I would love for him to come around and at least become a clutch 6th man that can occasionally take over a game late but I just don't see it in him, right now, and that really saddens me.

------

Interesting article on Gilbert's state of mind and the effect he and his contract could have on Orlando's franchise if his game doesn't improve.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=A ... agic020611

Arenas firing blanks for Magic

Gilbert Arenas(notes) flashed those bemused eyes, raised an eyebrow and let an uneasy smile curl across his lips. “I didn’t score today?” he responded to an inquisitor outside his locker on Sunday...

Once, Arenas proclaimed himself to be an alter ego, Agent Zero. Now, it was no longer the number on his back, but the one in the box score...

The future of the Magic hangs on the perilous possibility of Arenas’ ability to transform himself, his game, and make the biggest trade in franchise history something besides the biggest mistake in franchise history...

There was a time when a team would consider the risk-reward of having him in uniform, but no more. These days, Agent Zero isn’t an alter ego, nor the digit on the back of his jersey. It’s a line in his box score, and it hung over the Garden on Sunday – over the future of this Orlando Magic franchise – like an anvil.

[JonathanJoseph]

Those are very interesting stats on PER after injuries, Jonathon.

I think with the Arenas situation, though, things are complicated by how fragile his psyche is right now. Gilbert is a mess psychologically. He's suffered extremes of professional, social, and romantic failure all within a three year window, and is clearly reeling from the emotional immensity of it all. I'm not sure how you quantify that, but I think it's fair to consider that Arena is still very, very injured - inside.

I don't believe you will see Gilbert "bounce back" to a respectable PER until he's experienced some healing of his mind and heart. The problem is, his current relational saga could drag out until next season, especially with three kids involved and a potential gold-digger settling in like a tick to suck out as much of his money as possible. It's hard for me to picture Gil playing with confidence and emotional clarity any time in the next two years... after which he then has to deal with the added weight of continued under-achievement and constant negative scrutiny in his profession of choice.

There is a very sad, very real chance that Gilbert will be a damaged player for the rest of his career. That sucks. That sucks a lot. But there it is.

Right. The PER numbers speak to this being a mental thing rather than a physical thing. There's not much evidence that a player can fall off this badly.

And as you noted, he likely needs that emotional stability to regain his game and I'd bet money he's got a form of depression. But I don't think it will take him that long to rebound, I don't think the divorce will need to be finalized legally for him to get over it.

How deep and long this depression/mental issue is will be the determinant of the success of this trade. If Arenas never recovers and the Wizards had their franchise player have the biggest decline in NBA history, then it will be an almost unfathomable occurrence for a franchise that was already supposed to be "cursed". Whatever was received in return will be irrelevant.

I'm not superstitious but I am coming around to believing in the Curse of Lez Boulez.

[JonathanJoseph]

Monta Ellis has a 20 plus per as a SG. Arenas had a 8.6 per as a SG this season for the Wizards, and his per as a SG for Orlando is probably even smaller. What facts do you have that Arenas could have been a capable SG? As far as, I can see there are none. His only way to raise his per and trade value was by playing PG which means Wall languishes on the bench.

Here we go again. I'm not arguing that Arenas was playing good basketball this year. The numbers clearly indicate that he wasn't. But he also played very little alongside Wall and the Wizards team has absolutely stunk with and without Arenas. I don't have any facts that suggest Arenas could have been a capable SG. I just have common sense and know that history shows that Arenas has been a very good basketball player.

That is false. His trade value was also limited by the fact that no team that dreams of landing Carmello is going to trade for Arenas' contract (that eliminated the Knicks and Nets). His trade value was also limited by the fact that no rebuilding team was likely to want to take on his contract (that eliminates nearly all the bottom dwellers like Golden State, Minnesota, etc). His trade value was also limited by the fact that nearly all the contenders have either a better PG (eliminating Boston, New Orleans, Utah, San Antonio, Dallas etc) or they have a more cost effective PG (eliminating Atlanta, Portland, etc). Really there were only four teams in the NBA that had a need for Arenas' services. Those teams were the Clippers (because they had a worse PG with just as nearly as bad contract in Baron Davis), the Lakers, the Heat, and the Magic. The Lakers and the Heat could never have absorbed Arenas' contract. That left the Wizards 2 options. Take on Baron Davis' contract or take on Rashard Lewis' contract. It seems to me the Wizards got the best deal possible, and another season of Gil taking minutes from Wall was not worth the hope that somehow these fundamental market problem would suddenly turn in the Wizards' favor.

You're already wrong. Someone earlier in this thread indicated that, per Ed Tapscott, Charlotte was offering a package that included Stephen Jackson. So there was already a 3rd option.

I'm the only one who seems to be willing to acknowledge that there is all sorts of grey area here. You can't declare a winner or loser to this trade yet and I'm only suggesting that "selling low" was a bad strategy. It seems insane to me that everyone is insisting that I'm 100% wrong about something subjective in nature.

Yes selling low is a bad strategy, but so is throwing good money after bad. And so is investing on emotion rather than facts. You would have the Wizards continue to throw good money after bad into Gil even though it costs playing time for Wall, and you are basing your investing decision on the emotional belief that some team is going to come around to valueing Gil just as highly as you do.[/quote]

Throwing good money after bad? You've completely mixed your investing metaphors. No one is suggesting offering Arenas a contract extension, just letting his value increase before trading. These are two different things entirely.

And no, this is not based on emotion. I have VERY CLEARLY indicated that my belief is based on the FACTS that NBA players do not become bad players over night for no physical reason. I'm basing Arenas' value on what his PER should be based on historical norms. Again, based on facts not emotion. Seems that you should be looking in the mirror on that one.

[leswizards]

Here we go again. I'm not arguing that Arenas was playing good basketball this year. The numbers clearly indicate that he wasn't. But he also played very little alongside Wall and the Wizards team has absolutely stunk with and without Arenas. I don't have any facts that suggest Arenas could have been a capable SG. I just have common sense and know that history shows that Arenas has been a very good basketball player.

And here we go again, where you miss the point because you refuse to acknowledge any fact that is inconvenient to your blindly optimistic assessment of Gil. The point was and is Ellis has proven he is a capable SG, Gil never has. Furthermore, it is lacking common sense to assume that a player who has gone a half a season playing awful basketball as a SG is somehow going to be capable in the future of being a productive SG. Furthermore, whether you are willing to accept that there are legitimate doubts about Gil's ability to be a productive SG, you have to accept the fact that he is not a productive SG this season, and if the Wizards had kept him and wanted to keep giving him minutes so as to up his trade value, their only option would have been to play him at the point which means Wall languishes on the bench.

You're already wrong. Someone earlier in this thread indicated that, per Ed Tapscott, Charlotte was offering a package that included Stephen Jackson. So there was already a 3rd option.

And as someone else posted, Stephen Jackson for Gil straight up fails for cap reasons. As such, we have no idea what the actual offer was, and I can't comment on an offer that I don't know the details on.

Throwing good money after bad? You've completely mixed your investing metaphors. No one is suggesting offering Arenas a contract extension, just letting his value increase before trading. These are two different things entirely.

And no, this is not based on emotion. I have VERY CLEARLY indicated that my belief is based on the FACTS that NBA players do not become bad players over night for no physical reason. I'm basing Arenas' value on what his PER should be based on historical norms. Again, based on facts not emotion. Seems that you should be looking in the mirror on that one.

I haven't mixed any methaphors. Instead once again you refuse to acknowledge facts that are inconvenient to your blindly optimistic assessment of Gil. The trade for Rashard means that at a minimum the Wizards are no longer going to be throwing $20 million at Gil in the final season of contract. Furthermore, there is a possibility of another $10 million that the Wizards might be able to save in the second to last season of Gil's contract. Ergo, this trade has saved the Wizards $20-$30 million of good money that they would have been throwing after bad money towards Gil.

As to your emotions, you clearly have a blindly optimistic assessment of Gil's worth that at the current time no one else in the NBA shares. You are convinced that with time others will come to share your assessment of Gil. That is investing on emotions and not facts.

[tontoz]

And no, this is not based on emotion. I have VERY CLEARLY indicated that my belief is based on the FACTS that NBA players do not become bad players over night for no physical reason.

But Arenas does have physical reason for his bad play. He has arthritis in his knee.

I am no medical expert but i don't think arthritis is the type of thing that will just heal up like a broken bone. I think it is a chronic condition.

[hands11]

All I can say is wow.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/g ... ayerId=974


Those are some ugly numbers.


To bad he has such a large contract to live up to. That is only making things worse.

Imagine if he was only making like 13M which is in line with what he was making before the new contract. This is only going to get worse as his contract goes from 17.7 Mil to 19M to 21M and he is crippling this franchise.

I think before this cripples him mentally, he will walk from the money in 2012. How many Millions does a man needs if he isn't happy. If he can't regain enough form and it means playing with Howard or without him, I could see him taking the pay cut down to something like 10-12M to win the fans and to keep the team together. Hey 10M isn't bad on top of everything he already has made.

[Rafael122]

Well, he's got child support to pay and that's not going to be cheap. If I were Gil, I'd cash in on these last 3 years because after this contract runs out, he's either getting less than MLE money or retiring.

[hands11]

Caught a little of the ORL vs NO game before falling asleep. Gil looked ok out there.

Woke up and checked his line. Not bad.

Still can't hit a 3 to save his life though for some strange reason.

I also noticed how trim he looked.

[dobrojim]

IDK - if that's the statline for a good outing, ouch.

[Kanyewest]

Well, he's got child support to pay and that's not going to be cheap. If I were Gil, I'd cash in on these last 3 years because after this contract runs out, he's either getting less than MLE money or retiring.

I could see Arenas making a career in television in some capacity. But as Gilbert Arenas pointed out in his interview with CSN, he doesn't have a drinking or gambling problem so I think he will be fine.

[dobrojim]

Gil is only shooting < 70% from the FT line

about the only stat he's doing OK in is assists
where he's avg ~4 in 20 min/gm

a shadow of his former self

[JonathanJoseph]

Gil is only shooting < 70% from the FT line

about the only stat he's doing OK in is assists
where he's avg ~4 in 20 min/gm

a shadow of his former self

Right, but that speaks to the point. He's not even shooting FTs near his old self and that's not due to his knees or anything physical.

There's just no precedent for a guy to go from an elite player to a bad player very quickly. Some large % of his drop off is a mental funk. So how much and how quickly does Arenas recover?

The answer hold the key to whether or not this trade was a success, although I'd argue that the organization's handling of this contributed significantly to the creation of the problem and left themselves with nothing but bad options.

[LyricalRico]

There's just no precedent for a guy to go from an elite player to a bad player very quickly.

Hmmm, that's a interesting thought. How many guys who were All-Star caliber in their primes got injured and returned but completely fell off statistically, never to return? All before 30?

Penny Hardaway is the first guy that comes to mind as a guy who was at the top of his game, blew out his knee, and came back to play but was never the same. I don't put Grant Hill in that group because he missed so much time at an older and remarkably he's still a starter. And I left out Allan Houston because he never really came back from his injury.

Can anyone else think of anybody?

[Ruzious]

Really? A better question would be how many players miss as many games as he has over the last 4 years and come back to be the players they used to be? Just look at Portland - Roy and Oden were set to be superstars for a decade, and now - What are the odds they're going to be what they were?

[nate33]

Really? A better question would be how many players miss as many games as he has over the last 4 years and come back to be the players they used to be? Just look at Portland - Roy and Oden were set to be superstars for a decade, and now - What are the odds they're going to be what they were?

Amare comes to mind.

I don't know if Kidd counts. He came back to be a very good player, but was never quite the same caliber as the pre-injury Kidd.