Political Roundtable Part XXVI

[dobrojim]

What do you mean? It plays out the way I described it - if Congress doesn't impeach, Trump gets off scott free.

What is the authority for that assertion? Not saying you’re wrong, but I’m not familiar with that. Impeachment subjects someone to Senate trial and, if convicted there, removal from office and subject to further prosecution. It seems the end of a term would accomplish the same thing.

If you read the Mueller report, Mueller argues that he can't indict the President because the only judicial body with jurisdiction over him is Congress. That legal jurisdictional issue doesn't just disappear when you're no longer President. A crime committed while President remains under the jurisdiction of Congress no matter what day it is. Once the President is no longer President and can't be impeached there's literally no remedy left. He gets away with it. (Which in my mind is another argument why the DOJ memo saying the President is immune from prosecution is garbage)

Well, if I was a defense lawyer I'd certainly argue this. None of this has been tested in court yet, so who knows.

But as Pointgod points out there are state level crimes he's still exposed to. We'll see I guess.

[edit to add:Maybe you're right, once the immunity of being President ends you are subject to indictment. The Trump administration has argued the point my way for their justification for executive immunity on everything, so I'll guess we'll find out the answer soon enough]

I don't believe that is true. I'm no constitutional lawyer but just because the Senate may not choose
to convict does not mean the USDOJ (once a person leaves office) or state AGs cannot proceed.
Furthermore, again, if I understand correctly, there is nothing preventing state AGs right now
from proceeding with prosecutions.

The DOJ OLC opinion only pertains to federal prosecutions.

[gtn130]

No, I'm not actually sure Trump would have done that. He may have brought up a bunch of complaints and talked a big game and even released some minor details and complained about a corrupt political process and blamed the Democrats for that but I'm not at all convinced Trump would have been interested in opening the Pandora's box of prosecuting for non-profit improprieties on behalf of foundations of former presidents. He has a pretty strong disincentive to do that while also having a strong incentive to garner political points by grandstanding.

Trump has 100% tried to prosecute the Clintons but has been rebuffed for various reasons.

Mueller Report Reveals Trump’s Fixation on Targeting Hillary Clinton

Trump Wanted to Order Justice Dept. to Prosecute Comey and Clinton

The idea that Trump wouldn't prosecute the Clintons for fear of opening Pandora's box requires believing that Trump is capable of thinking multiple steps ahead. He has already set precedents in a million different ways that could ostensibly hurt him in the long run. He is literally never playing 4D chess. He's a senile, sundowning Fox News addict

[dobrojim]

I think there's fear among the billionaire set that if Trump is run out of office on a wave of progressive pols (Bernie and Warren especially but the next wave of AOC's and all) then there will be political will to prosecute all of the malefactors who have run our political body (and environment, etc) into the ground. No more free passes for monopolies and mega-corporations. They will literally pay for what has been done to this country.

Yeah that’s Progressive fairytale. These guys aren’t going to be prosecuted because a lot of what they did was either legal or just skirts the morally grey area. The only way to get some kind of restitution is to put power back in the hands of Democrats for a loooong time. That means Liberals actually have to get engaged, show up to vote and register people. It’s an uphill climb.

Prosecuted or not, even if the laws were simply enforced we would not be in the heap of **** we're in now. Way back under Ronald Reagan Ma Bell AT&T was broken up for being a monopoly and behaving as such. Today Comcast, The Walt Disney Company, AT&T, National Amusements (owns CBS Corporation and Viacom) and Fox corporation own over 90% of our media. Amazon and Walmart have killed off the mom and pop business, and American manufacturing in general. This is not the pull yourself up by the bootstraps America that people believe in. How to put the toothpaste back in the tube, who knows, but this America that cares more for shareholders than it does a guy earning a paycheck and paying bills, well, it's not the way to go.

I think putting the right person in that bully pulpit would help. Except of course that it has to be filtered through the media to reach people. On the other hand the rage and dissatisfaction that elected Trump is as strong as ever. It seems to me you can tap into that by saying: look how about this time we don't elect a billionaire businessman to look out for your paycheck. Because he's going to look out for billionaire businesses first. And then lie to you about it and tell you it's a good deal. And as he always does he will cut himself a deal and then stiff you and leave you with the bill to pay. That and bankruptcy are how he built his business. Is that the American way?

So, I think the argument can be made in a clear enough way that people will get it enough to vote for the right people. The trick is can you keep their attention long enough that you can get them to vote in midterms or the next election. Because yes, there's a lot of damage to undo. And powerful forces working against, well, pretty much everybody but shareholders.

One way to keep the public attention though would be to find the fatcats who screw the little guy and publicly haul them into the light. To point out the Epsteins who get a slap on the wrist for abusing out girls, just because Billionaires and friends of Donald Trump have different rules than we do. I think there is a Let Them Eat Cake mindset in the ruling class where they don't really understand that Bread and Circus will only keep the populace confused for so long. At some point you better start living up to your ideals or yeah, Goths and Visigoths and Zealots and bombers show up in the timeline of history.

High profile legal executions of the guys who ruin life for ordinary Joes just may act as a proper release valve and caution the scumbags not to think they will get away with it.

Is that still true in the age of social media? One thing you can say about Trump is he has
shown that if you have a sufficient following on social media, you no longer need the MSM
to talk to the people.

I liken it a little to the origins of my "faith" ie Quaker.
Quakers were revolutionary in that they shook off the priesthood
and said we don't need no stinkin priest to talk to God. Of course
the priests of that time didn't care much for that.

[dobrojim]

the memo is limited to sitting presidents on the grounds that a criminal case would interfere with the president's ability to perform his constitutionally required duties. once he's out of office, that memo doesn't apply - both explicitly as well as it underlying reasoning. furthermore, the decision to adhere to that memo is discretionary, on the whims of the attorney general. i can see why an AG wouldn't want to set precedent in going after former presidents but there's nothing stopping it either.

and not for nothing, i trust the FBI/DOJ to fact-gather the requisite evidence to build a case much more than Congress to do the same for an impeachment.

Also the OLC memo touches on whether you can have, as a practical matter, the underlings
prosecuting the boss since it would be people POTUS has power over that would be bringing
the case(s) forward.

[Zonkerbl]

No, I'm not actually sure Trump would have done that. He may have brought up a bunch of complaints and talked a big game and even released some minor details and complained about a corrupt political process and blamed the Democrats for that but I'm not at all convinced Trump would have been interested in opening the Pandora's box of prosecuting for non-profit improprieties on behalf of foundations of former presidents. He has a pretty strong disincentive to do that while also having a strong incentive to garner political points by grandstanding.

Trump has 100% tried to prosecute the Clintons but has been rebuffed for various reasons.

Mueller Report Reveals Trump’s Fixation on Targeting Hillary Clinton

Trump Wanted to Order Justice Dept. to Prosecute Comey and Clinton

The idea that Trump wouldn't prosecute the Clintons for fear of opening Pandora's box requires believing that Trump is capable of thinking multiple steps ahead. He has already set precedents in a million different ways that could ostensibly hurt him in the long run. He is literally never playing 4D chess. He's a senile, sundowning Fox News addict

Of all the thousands of white collar crimes Trump has committed over his lifetime, how many times has he faced *any* consequences at all? Why would he be worried about the future? As far as he knows, he can get away with *anything*. He's said as much himself.

[pancakes3]

The FBI, DOJ, and Federal Courts, collectively representing the totality of the judicial process, is supposed to be nonpartisan. There is no Pandora's box to open. The reports that gtn linked to, wanted the DOJ to prosecute hillary for Uranium One. There's already been an FBI investigation into it, and turned up zero evidence of bribery. Trump's just mad that he can't bring charges based on zero evidence.

I'm not saying the clintons are squeaky clean (obama probably is, though) but there's likely nothing that the clintons are doing that amounts to a significant crime. However, if there was though, political comity shouldn't stop the DOJ from bringing charges.

Trump will get his when he can't hide behind Barr any more.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Trump has 100% tried to prosecute the Clintons but has been rebuffed for various reasons.

Mueller Report Reveals Trump’s Fixation on Targeting Hillary Clinton

Trump Wanted to Order Justice Dept. to Prosecute Comey and Clinton

The idea that Trump wouldn't prosecute the Clintons for fear of opening Pandora's box requires believing that Trump is capable of thinking multiple steps ahead. He has already set precedents in a million different ways that could ostensibly hurt him in the long run. He is literally never playing 4D chess. He's a senile, sundowning Fox News addict

Trying to prosecute without any evidence isn't necessarily the same thing. And this idea that Trump is just himself as some massive political mastermind/dictator or some infantile dunce who's incapable of thinking at all need to be rethought a bit. Trump isn't the highest watt bulb but he can also think for himself (much to his handlers' frequent dismay) and there are a lot of other people who advise Trump who guide him a bit, too, and the idea that they haven't informed him even a little bit is simply unrealistic. He may or may not ignore that advice from time to time, or take it in different directions but painting in only one color doesn't capture reality here.

[gtn130]

Trump isn't the highest watt bulb but he can also think for himself (much to his handlers' frequent dismay) and there are a lot of other people who advise Trump who guide him a bit, too, and the idea that they haven't informed him even a little bit is simply unrealistic. He may or may not ignore that advice from time to time, or take it in different directions but painting in only one color doesn't capture reality here.

I actually agree with this. Trump *does* make plans and develop strategies. They're just **** ones made by a dumb person who is typically too lazy to look more than a couple steps ahead.

Like when Trump brags about the stock market and hitches his wagon to the economy - it's a prime example of how desperate he is for short-term wins and how little thought he puts into how things could play out longer term. I'm sure he thinks it's a big win for him to take all the credit for the economy, but really he's just maximizing volatility of his presidency because he's made it so that his performance as president is interconnected with the economy's performance. I'm sure a decent % of Trump supporters will go along with villainizing Jerome Powell or whatever, but it still underscore how that type of play has very little upside and a ton of downside because he's still at ~42% approval while claiming complete and total responsibility for a good economy.

[pancakes3]

nah, Trump's definitely an infantile dunce. the serendipity of it for trump is that so long as a significant portion of the population is dumber than he is, he can get away with it. you can try and spin it by saying "well he's a genius in his own way" or "he's not book smart but he is street smart" or "he can't be that dumb - he's a billionaire" but those are just the result of rational brains trying to resolve something patently irrational.

just as a "for-instance", trump loves to speak out of both sides of his mouth and a rational audience should pick up on that.

- no, the border policy isn't inhuman - but if it is, it's an Obama-era policy.
- trade wars are good for our country, easy to win, and pumping in billions into the treasury at zero cost to the consumers - but don't worry, China will cave soon and this magic, zero strings attached stream of revenue will be no longer.
- getting dirt on the opposition isn't wrong and if approached in 2020, given the opportunity, I would absolutely take a meeting even if with a foreign government, but can you believe that Hillary was the one running oppo research with Fusion GPS? lock her up!

I would say this is textbook charlatan-speak except even con-men wouldn't dare be so transparently contradictory. even someone trying to baffle you with bullspit wouldn't dare be so blatantly nonsensical.

what he's doing is giving his base thinking points to rationalize their position no matter what their original position is. if you think the detention center policy is ok - then yeah, it's not inhuman, those people are rapists and drug dealers. if you think the detention center policy is not ok - then THANKS OBAMA.

it doesn't answer anything, it doesn't do anything, and is basically a meaningless statement.

so if you think that's smart, then sure, maybe. on a relative scale, perhaps. it's like the old joke about not needing to outrun the bear, just the next-slowest person. trump is just smart enough to be a step ahead of his base but on an objective level? he's a dummy.

[gtn130]

Trump is obviously a huge moron, but I think there is a difference between mashing buttons and coming up with dumb plans that often suck but don't always suck.

Like Trump clearly had a strategy for minimizing damage vis-a-vis the Mueller report - appointing Barr to DOJ, the Barr memo, the corresponding tweets (TOTAL EXONERATION) and media talking points, etc. He evidently had a reasonably effective plan for managing the media narrative.

It also helps that Trump is totally corrupt and a lifelong cheat. He's able to accomplish a bunch of stuff that other people can't because he can relentlessly lie about everything and create his own alternate universe - it's basically impossible that any other president could ever fade the Mueller report or all the other investigations.

[pancakes3]

i think what you're pointing out are all products of trump's enablers more than trump himself.

- the talking points are Fox News's, not his. He just parrots it. he certainly doesn't feed it to them.
- Gorsuch and Kavannaugh are Fedsoc's picks, not his. He probably doesn't even have a working knowledge of judicial activism as it relates to identity politics.
- the immigration policies were Bannon's (anti-Muslim) and passed onto Miller (anti-Hispanic)
- the tax cut was Ryan's baby.

You can really see the lack of a cohesive plan when examining the environmental dismantling are so much more efficient and devastating than the other departments. if it was under a collective vision, Education, HUD, State, etc. would be equally dismantled. The problem is that DeVos is basically a PTA mom, State is run by a revolving door of dim bulbs, HUD is being ran by a surgeon, etc. and not as effective as oil/gas/coal lobbyists who actually know what to do and how to do it.

as for his competence/incompetence in his pre-presidential life, are we forgetting just how incompetent he was in his business life? he's the only person who managed to turn early investments in the manhattan real estate into multiple bankruptcies, saved by the grace of his father's fortune. The $1 million seed money pales in comparison to the $60 million cumulative in gifts that his dad funneled into Trump's pockets throughout the 70s and 80s, which pale in comparison to the 200 million dollar inheritance he saw at his father's death. putting that money into index funds would have made him a billionaire several times over, alone. i guess we're giving him kudos for being able to avoid jail while he managed to continuously bankrupt himself in his fruitless pursuit to lie and cheat?

but yeah, give credit where it's due. it's inexplicable how Teflon Don came to be Teflon Don. You're right that the scandals that plague him roll off his back in a way that requires you to say "well, I guess he's smart in some ways" but when looking at the facts available, i have a problem saying so out loud.

[Zonkerbl]

Trump's obviously an idiot savant who is really excellent at manipulating people. Very similar to Hitler in that way.

[pancakes3]

just the latest bit of news: Trump's EPA gave exemptions to fossil plants from requirements of using biofuel, which hurts farmers that grow the biomatter used in biofuel, and now the administration is flailing, trying to find a way to keep the farmers happy, but still toeing the line from big oil/gas/coal.

the lobbyists are good at what they do. trump's administration isn't.

i think i'll be willing to concede that Trump may be "good" at things like stoking fears, and finding the right lie, and setting low expectations so that very little criticism sticks to him, but I'm still not willing to concede that he's "smart"

[Zonkerbl]

BREAKING: Trump cancels trip to Denmark in a snit because they won't sell him Greenland

[montestewart]

BREAKING: Trump cancels trip to Denmark in a snit because they won't sell him Greenland

This might be a faketrumptweet.com

[montestewart]

This might be fake too

[dobrojim]

Hitler, one bad hombre. Who knew?

[Pointgod]

Trump's obviously an idiot savant who is really excellent at manipulating people. Very similar to Hitler in that way.

You guys are giving Trump way too much credit here. Trump is just acting like the terrible human being that he’s always been. It’s just that there’s a large segment of the population that likes and rewards that behavior, he has a whole right wing ecosystem that constantly lies and is used as a propaganda arm and the rest of the media is incapable of explicitly stating that he’s an immoral piece of **** instead of framing everything as political strategy.

Just imagine if Obama had the whole left wing media as a propaganda outlet who gaslit the entire nation into believing he could do no wrong. Trump tweeting that Rashida Talibs’s grandmother is happy to not see her or that Jewish voters who vote Democrat are traitors isn’t something his base gives two **** about. He’s just acting like the impulsive, evil, moron that he’s always been.

[gtn130]

Trump's obviously an idiot savant who is really excellent at manipulating people. Very similar to Hitler in that way.

You guys are giving Trump way too much credit here. Trump is just acting like the terrible human being that he’s always been. It’s just that there’s a large segment of the population that likes and rewards that behavior, he has a whole right wing ecosystem that constantly lies and is used as a propaganda arm and the rest of the media is incapable of explicitly stating that he’s an immoral piece of **** instead of framing everything as political strategy.

Just imagine if Obama had the whole left wing media as a propaganda outlet who gaslit the entire nation into believing he could do no wrong. Trump tweeting that Rashida Talibs’s grandmother is happy to not see her or that Jewish voters who vote Democrat are traitors isn’t something his base gives two **** about. He’s just acting like the impulsive, evil, moron that he’s always been.

Yeah I don't disagree with any of this. I think we're all kinda just splitting hairs here

[pancakes3]

Wednesday: Rick Perry falls for an instagram memechain hoax, Trump refers to himself as the Chosen one, and the administration at large implements another policy that ignores due process rights for immigrants that will inevitably be struck down by federal courts.