Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[doclinkin]

Your overall point is quite true. But it seems to be me that several of his offensive foul calls
for illegal screens were pretty ticky-tack. He's going to have to be extra conscious of the fact
the zebras are on his case.

He's got jumpy feet on a pick or screen, it's true. But his guards also have to wait until his feet are set before they make their move.

[DCZards]

The Zards have a bit of an end-of-game conundrum. Wright should rightfully be on the court for his defense but Morris is the PG best-suited to take some of the end-of-game ballhandling and playmaking responsibility from Beal.

[tontoz]

He's got jumpy feet on a pick or screen, it's true. But his guards also have to wait until his feet are set before they make their move.

Yeah that is a problem league wide. I am sure it is a sore subject for bigs.

[dckingsfan]

Gaff needs to learn how to set a screen. He's got to have been called for an illegal screen in every game this year.

Your overall point is quite true. But it seems to be me that several of his offensive foul calls for illegal screens were pretty ticky-tack. He's going to have to be extra conscious of the fact the zebras are on his case.

He's got jumpy feet on a pick or screen, it's true. But his guards also have to wait until his feet are set before they make their move.

Is this the case of repetition with someone that can play well with Gafford?

[payitforward]

...the positive is that first unit over the first three games. The trio of Morris, Beal and Porzingis have been quite good...

It's early days of course, but in these 3 first games, Brad has played by far the best basketball of his NBA career. & you are right that Morris has been absolutely terrific. But, I can't see how KP has been good. Rather the opposite.

OTOH, combined those 3 guys have played only 289 minutes, so there's nothing to conclude yet.

[dckingsfan]

...the positive is that first unit over the first three games. The trio of Morris, Beal and Porzingis have been quite good...

It's early days of course, but in these 3 first games, Brad has played by far the best basketball of his NBA career. & you are right that Morris has been absolutely terrific. But, I can't see how KP has been good. Rather the opposite.

OTOH, combined those 3 guys have played only 289 minutes, so there's nothing to conclude yet.

I have liked (in this super small sample size) how this unit (specifically Morris, Beal and Porzingis) has played together in terms of running the offense. In general, it isn't helter-skelter like the second unit. They run the offense with purpose.

My (only) point being - I think that Wes is going to need to figure out the offensive schema of that second unit in a hurry.

[GoneShammGone]

Gaff needs to learn how to set a screen. He's got to have been called for an illegal screen in every game this year.

Your overall point is quite true. But it seems to be me that several of his offensive foul calls
for illegal screens were pretty ticky-tack. He's going to have to be extra conscious of the fact
the zebras are on his case.

He's got jumpy feet on a pick or screen, it's true. But his guards also have to wait until his feet are set before they make their move.

Exactly, and also... Morris did a pretty bad job of dribbling close enough to Gafford to make the screen work. He kept leaving too much space, which allowed the defender to slide by Gaff on top of the screen. When that happens is natural as a screener to try to lean and stick out your hip to gain contact, and that seemed to be what was getting called.

So its a work in progress, from both the screener and the dribbler...

[doclinkin]

Is this the case of repetition with someone that can play well with Gafford?

Russ didn't have this problem because he likes to dribble the ball and survey everything before he makes his strike. It's partly a design vulnerability because Wes wants motion on and off the ball to get defenses out of position. A lot of moving parts, Gafford is just one of them. Could be the timing issue evens out later.

[nate33]

From the Detroit game thread:

One difference between this team and past years is that we don't have the weak links on defense. Everyone in our rotation seems to be at least an average defender.

Have you seen how Rui does closeouts? He lacks basic fundamentals. Every time he jumps / does some weird movements with his legs. He lets his player go by and drive to the basket, what creates a numerical advantage to the offense. Am i the only one who sees that?

No, the coaches see it too. There is a reason why Deni starts and Rui comes in off the bench, despite Rui being older with more time in the league. Rui gets lost on defense and tunnel vision on offense. Very much a work in progress.

Yeah, I'm starting to think that they may actually move Rui. All along, I had assumed that they would keep Rui for marketing reasons, even if it meant letting Kuzma go to stay under the tax. But Kuzma has played very well, and Rui isn't really helping the team win even though the shots are falling. I shudder to think how bad he will look if he goes on a cold streak.

Given the budgetary constraints associated with Beal's contract, I really don't think they can pay all 4 of of Kuzma, Hachimura, Avdija and Kispert indefinitely. One of them will have to be let go. I think we'll be good with essentially a 3-man rotation at the two forwards spots, with a vet minimum 10th man type of guy (like Gill) to soak up 4 minutes a half as the 4th forward.

Increasingly, it looks like Hachimura will be the odd man out. I definitely like what the other 3 guys bring to the table much more.

[payitforward]

The Zards have a bit of an end-of-game conundrum. Wright should rightfully be on the court for his defense but Morris is the PG best-suited to take some of the end-of-game ballhandling and playmaking responsibility from Beal.

Interesting thought....

I wonder whether Wright, who is 6'5", could be on court at the 3 in some of those situations...?

[dckingsfan]

The Wizards' SRS ranking, which factors point differential and strength of schedule, is actually a bit better than their net differential. The Wizards rank 9th by SRS and 10th by point differential. They're doing it with defense. The Wizards have the 6th best defense in the league. The offense is pretty mediocre, ranking 19th.

Just putting this part of the really good post here... It seems to be that the defensive schemas are working for both units. Again, I think it is the offensive schemas for the second unit that are pulling down the ratings into the bottom half of the league.

[dobrojim]

Your overall point is quite true. But it seems to be me that several of his offensive foul calls for illegal screens were pretty ticky-tack. He's going to have to be extra conscious of the fact the zebras are on his case.

He's got jumpy feet on a pick or screen, it's true. But his guards also have to wait until his feet are set before they make their move.

Is this the case of repetition with someone that can play well with Gafford?

no big deal but the attribution for the quotes above got messed up.

[tleikheen]

[/quote]te]Yeah, I'm starting to think that they may actually move Rui. All along, I had assumed that they would keep Rui for marketing reasons, even if it meant letting Kuzma go to stay under the tax. But Kuzma has played very well, and Rui isn't really helping the team win even though the shots are falling. I shudder to think how bad he will look if he goes on a cold streak.[/quote]

Rui isnt going anywhere ....... You don't trade young talent that is shooting 50/40 from the field and is playing on a team thats appearing near the top 5 in team defense. Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

I shudder to think how bad he will look if he goes on a cold streak.

He's a career 48 per cent shooter who shoots above avg from the 3. What cold streak ?

[Dark Faze]

I think Deni will be pretty cheap to retain due to his low usage and apparent low ceiling on offense. That isn’t to say I don’t like him, but it’s what I foresee being the case.

Kuz has the highest chance at an extreme overpay. Porzingis is very difficult to figure out in terms of future pay.

[tleikheen]

Gaff needs more motivation on boxing out and getting more rebounds and I dont want to see a trade to do that. Id like WUJ to play Kuz 6'10",Rui, 6'8" and Deni 6'9" when KP needs a break. The young guys are a big key to the surprise play of the Wiz and might as well see how good these guys jell playing together.

[nate33]

Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

Rui's on/off differential is -39.0. Let that sink in for a minute. While Rui is on the floor the team is outscored by 39 POINTS per 100 possessions. And this is from a guy who has split time pretty equally between starters and the 2nd string so the numbers are more accurate. It's not solely due to him being part of a generally bad second unit. The team is even worse when he is alongside starters.

Look at his player pairs numbers. The team plays bad no matter who he is paired with:



Caveat: the sample sizes are too small to put much stock in. But with Rui, the significantly negative on/off numbers have been true for his entire career.

[Dolevi]

Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

Rui's on/off differential is -39.0. Let that sink in for a minute. While Rui is on the floor the team is outscored by 39 POINTS per 100 possessions. And this is from a guy who has split time pretty equally between starters and the 2nd string so the numbers are more accurate. It's not solely due to him being part of a generally bad second unit. The team is even worse when he is alongside starters.

Look at his player pairs numbers. The team plays bad no matter who he is paired with:



Caveat: the sample sizes are too small to put much stock in. But with Rui, the significantly negative on/off numbers have been true for his entire career.

Wow lol
The power of numbers.

[payitforward]

From the Detroit game thread:

Have you seen how Rui does closeouts? He lacks basic fundamentals. Every time he jumps / does some weird movements with his legs. He lets his player go by and drive to the basket, what creates a numerical advantage to the offense. Am i the only one who sees that?

No, the coaches see it too. There is a reason why Deni starts and Rui comes in off the bench, despite Rui being older with more time in the league. Rui gets lost on defense and tunnel vision on offense. Very much a work in progress.

Yeah, I'm starting to think that they may actually move Rui. All along, I had assumed that they would keep Rui for marketing reasons, even if it meant letting Kuzma go to stay under the tax. But Kuzma has played very well, and Rui isn't really helping the team win even though the shots are falling. I shudder to think how bad he will look if he goes on a cold streak.

Given the budgetary constraints associated with Beal's contract, I really don't think they can pay all 4 of of Kuzma, Hachimura, Avdija and Kispert indefinitely. One of them will have to be let go. I think we'll be good with essentially a 3-man rotation at the two forwards spots, with a vet minimum 10th man type of guy (like Gill) to soak up 4 minutes a half as the 4th forward.

Increasingly, it looks like Hachimura will be the odd man out. I definitely like what the other 3 guys bring to the table much more.

So far, Kuzma is playing better this year than any overall previous season -- but... he did the same thing last year! He started the season extremely strong -- stronger than this year I think (will check).

All the same, the level of his first 4 games isn't good enough to think of him as a long-term solution. I.e. as core player on a genuinely good team. & especially not given what he is likely to get in his next contract.

I.e. the better he plays, the better it would be to trade him at the deadline. The problem with that idea, of course, is that it would also be a good to trade Rui (i.e. rather than re-sign him).

Obviously, we won't do both.
Equally obvious, alas, is the fact that we probably won't trade either of them! Kuzma, like Rui, is extreme marketable.

I.e. if any of the forwards get traded, I'm worried that it'll be Deni -- but more likely next year than this.

[payitforward]

Really stupid statement saying Rui isnt helping the team while he plays good BB,not turning the ball over and able to bounce defenders off his body when he's attacking the basket.

Rui's on/off differential is -39.0. Let that sink in for a minute....

Don't waste your time, nate: it won't sink in.

tleikheen is a Rui fan of the "true believer" type. What Rui actually does while on the floor has no bearing on his estimation of Rui's greatness.

[WallToWall]

We’re only 4 games in and it’s too early to make statements regarding the numbers. That said, as a team, we seem to be pretty bad at turning the ball over. It’s a number that I’ll keep watching as the season goes. If it is indeed a problem, I hope our stats gurus have brought it up, and coaches/players are trying to fix. We are, more or less, average will the other numbers. So fixing this could lead to more wins. As a team, we rank on the top end in blocks per game.