2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[dckingsfan]

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Zaccharie-Risacher/Summary/175806
38.8% from 3 on 232 attempts from 3. How are we comparing this guy to Otto Porter? People are confusing the player Otto Porter became with the player Otto Porter was a freshman in college. The Kevin Knox comparison would be a good one, just make Knox a knockdown shooter. When Mario Hezonja was 18/19, he shot 46 3's. That is to say Risacher shot more than 5 times as many 3's as Hezonja at the same age and knocked them down at a higher percentage. Barnes shot 195 3's at UNC his first year at 34.4%. There is no realistic comparison that can be drawn between these two players.

Risacher is simply too good of a shooter for any of these comparisons to be adequate. Why does this matter? Because for those guys, the goal is to improve their shot. For Risacher, the goal is to work on counters.

Also let's look at this play at 2:50. Risacher attacks the close out, blows past the defender and then rises up for a floater. This is what he'll be dealing with in the NBA. People running him off the 3-point line and we can already see that he has counters. In addition, look at how many defenders are in/near the paint. This is why there's no real shot creation in Euro basketball. Teams just pack it in and dear you to shoot. In the NBA, when Risacher has space, life will be much easier for him.

Man, he gets to the corner fast on fast breaks...

[prime1time]

One more thing about Risacher's lack of shot creation. There isn't one player in this draft who would have been able to consistently create shots in the league Risacher was playing in. It's just not the way Euro ball is played. In the NBA with open space and it's terrible defense, Risacher will be able to shot create. He might never be elite or even good, but again the upside is his shooting. As teams try to take away that, the ability to create will be his counter move.

Hawks might be so enticed with Sarr that they pass on him. Wizards should take him, but we are the Wizards so who knows. Rockets should take him but they need a big. So that could leave him going to the Spurs. Risacher is a Spurs player if I ever saw one. Teaming with Wemby would take his game to the next level. Imagine the Spurs leaving the draft with Sheppard and Risacher. Instant floor spacing for Wembanyama. Now they can go out and find a ball dominant guard who may not be an elite shooter and still maintain great offensive flow. Then 4 years from now Wizards fans can complain about how we didn't draft Risacher lol.

Now Prime! Stop being a cynic! We are, all of us here, in recovery mode. We gotta retire that whole "so wizards" thing, man! Get with the program, dude -- start spreading those good vibes!

Ok? Got the picture? You start, & I promise I'll follow!

Tbh, it's not even a Wizards thing. It's a DC sports thing. "SoWizards" is how I cope with being a DC sports fan. Things like trading for Randy Foy and Mike Miller instead of drafting Steph or trotting out an injured RG3 late in a playoff game and blowing out his knee. I'll support whoever they draft, but the feeling that somehow things will inevitably go wrong is so deeply ingrained that the only thing that can solve it is to experience things actually go right. I apologize in advance.

[nate33]

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Zaccharie-Risacher/Summary/175806
38.8% from 3 on 232 attempts from 3. How are we comparing this guy to Otto Porter? People are confusing the player Otto Porter became with the player Otto Porter was a freshman in college. The Kevin Knox comparison would be a good one, just make Knox a knockdown shooter. When Mario Hezonja was 18/19, he shot 46 3's. That is to say Risacher shot more than 5 times as many 3's as Hezonja at the same age and knocked them down at a higher percentage. Barnes shot 195 3's at UNC his first year at 34.4%. There is no realistic comparison that can be drawn between these two players.

I'm agnostic on Risacher. I just don't know how to compare his competition to the NCAA competition. But I think it's a little disingenuous to compare Risacher's 3-point proficiency to a bunch of guys who played college in the pre-Curry era. Nobody shot 3's that much prior to 2015.

My comparison of Risacher to guys like Porter and MPJ is that he is a tall spot up shooter with good accuracy but a limited off-the-bounce game. His defense is solid because he is long, but he's not necessarily a shut down defender or anything.

[dckingsfan]

Players who have been selected that high at 22 years or older have not, for the most part, gone on to productive NBA careers. There have been 30 players who have been at least 22 on the day of the draft selected over the last 15 years. Of those, roughly three have become reliable starter-level players (Buddy Hield, Cam Johnson and Kelly Olynyk). Taurean Prince has consistently been a rotation player over his career. Corey Kispert, Obi Toppin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. seem to be on their way to getting there. The rest is a mixed bag.

NYTimes

[nate33]

Players who have been selected that high at 22 years or older have not, for the most part, gone on to productive NBA careers. There have been 30 players who have been at least 22 on the day of the draft selected over the last 15 years. Of those, roughly three have become reliable starter-level players (Buddy Hield, Cam Johnson and Kelly Olynyk). Taurean Prince has consistently been a rotation player over his career. Corey Kispert, Obi Toppin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. seem to be on their way to getting there. The rest is a mixed bag.

NYTimes

It would be interesting to see the criteria they use.

Just going back over the last 5 drafts, I count 8 players drafted in the top 20 at age 22 or older:

Jaime Jaquez Jr 2023 #18
Ochai Agbaji 2022 #14
Davion Mitchell 2021 #9
Chris Duarte 2021 #13
Corey Kispert 2021 #15
Obi Toppin 2020 #8
Matisse Thybulle 2019 #20
Cameron Johnson 2019 #11

I'd say the track record for these guys were pretty good, particularly once you account for the fact that they were NBA-ready almost from Day 1 so they were useful at a very low cost.

I'd say Jaquez, Kispert, Thybulle and Johnson were very good picks for their draft position.
Toppin was okay.
Duarte and Agbaji were someone disappointing but not a total bust.
Mitchell at #9 was a bust.

It looks like you want to pick these guys in the 15-20 range though. Reaching for them in the lottery hasn't panned out well.

[NatP4]

My comparison of Risacher to guys like Porter and MPJ is that he is a tall spot up shooter with good accuracy but a limited off-the-bounce game. His defense is solid because he is long, but he's not necessarily a shut down defender or anything.

This is where I’m at, although I would specifically compare him to MPJ and not Otto Porter. Otto posted 51 assists to 38 turnovers as a freshman and was an elite glue guy with high level feel for the game. Risacher has posted 58 assists to 105 turnovers in 64 games this year. He’s far more of a gunner than 3&D/glue guy.

Cam Johnson/MPJ/Barnes/Hezonja

For the record:

In 66 games, Hezonja shot 38.5% from 3 on 187 attempts in his draft year.

In 64 games, Risacher shot 38.8% from 3 on 232 attempts

[penbeast0]

The big question on MPJ coming in (and pretty much since) was his health. Risacher doesn't have that question mark yet.

[nate33]

The big question on MPJ coming in (and pretty much since) was his health. Risacher doesn't have that question mark yet.

Sure. I don't have a problem with characterizing Risacher as a "healthier MPJ". That certainly sounds like a useful NBA player. But still more of a role player and not they type of guy you hope to get at #2.

[penbeast0]

Depends on his defense. MPJ hasn't been able to play star minutes, but he's averaged close to 27.8 points/100 possessions despite health issues and shot over .600ts% with excellent range. He had a good defensive rep coming into the NBA as well. Add good health and a good attitude (don't know that much about Risacher) and that's a decent #2 pick.

[closg00]

https://basketball.realgm.com/player/Zaccharie-Risacher/Summary/175806
38.8% from 3 on 232 attempts from 3. How are we comparing this guy to Otto Porter? People are confusing the player Otto Porter became with the player Otto Porter was a freshman in college. The Kevin Knox comparison would be a good one, just make Knox a knockdown shooter. When Mario Hezonja was 18/19, he shot 46 3's. That is to say Risacher shot more than 5 times as many 3's as Hezonja at the same age and knocked them down at a higher percentage. Barnes shot 195 3's at UNC his first year at 34.4%. There is no realistic comparison that can be drawn between these two players.

Risacher is simply too good of a shooter for any of these comparisons to be adequate. Why does this matter? Because for those guys, the goal is to improve their shot. For Risacher, the goal is to work on counters.

Watch on YouTube

Also let's look at this play at 2:50. Risacher attacks the close out, blows past the defender and then rises up for a floater. This is what he'll be dealing with in the NBA. People running him off the 3-point line and we can already see that he has counters. In addition, look at how many defenders are in/near the paint. This is why there's no real shot creation in Euro basketball. Teams just pack it in and dear you to shoot. In the NBA, when Risacher has space, life will be much easier for him.

On the video, it’s hilarious that the play commentary is done as-is it were a soccer match, same style and she has little to say really.

[closg00]

I’m starting to get cold feet on Sarr/Zach , punting on the draft and taking a safer Castle/Reed/Rob/Clingan, then picking up another FRP for Kuzma, +26 would make me feel better, tank again for 2025 and hope we at-least get someone very good with one of these picks.

Yep. Both Frenchies have obvious flaws.

Despite concerns about his shot, I am quite high on Castle. A 6'6" combo guard with a 6'9" wingspan and a winning pedigree.

If SAS is enamored with whoever drops to #2, I'd be willing to consider trading #2 for #4 plus future draft compensation.

At #4 I'd select Castle. And then try to trade Kuzma for another late lottery pick.

Last year, I was quite high on Cason Wallace, and Castle's numbers this year compare very similar to Wallace. And the difference is Castle is 3 inches taller and won the NCAA tournament as a freshman.

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=stephon-castle--cason-wallace

After us, I will be waiting on the Spurs pick as-if it were ours, very curious what they will do at 4 & 8.

[tontoz]

One thing that has always bugged me about MPJ is how much he loads up to shoot a jumper. He almost looks like a guy who caught the ball under the rim and is loading up so he can jump up for a two hand dunk.

Risacher has a more compact release which should help him shooting on the move. His release isn't Klay quick but it's quicker than MPJ. I think he will be more effective shooting off the dribble.

[dckingsfan]

Players who have been selected that high at 22 years or older have not, for the most part, gone on to productive NBA careers. There have been 30 players who have been at least 22 on the day of the draft selected over the last 15 years. Of those, roughly three have become reliable starter-level players (Buddy Hield, Cam Johnson and Kelly Olynyk). Taurean Prince has consistently been a rotation player over his career. Corey Kispert, Obi Toppin and Jaime Jaquez Jr. seem to be on their way to getting there. The rest is a mixed bag.

NYTimes

It would be interesting to see the criteria they use.

Just going back over the last 5 drafts, I count 8 players drafted in the top 20 at age 22 or older:

Jaime Jaquez Jr 2023 #18
Ochai Agbaji 2022 #14
Davion Mitchell 2021 #9
Chris Duarte 2021 #13
Corey Kispert 2021 #15
Obi Toppin 2020 #8
Matisse Thybulle 2019 #20
Cameron Johnson 2019 #11

I'd say the track record for these guys were pretty good, particularly once you account for the fact that they were NBA-ready almost from Day 1 so they were useful at a very low cost.

I'd say Jaquez, Kispert, Thybulle and Johnson were very good picks for their draft position.
Toppin was okay.
Duarte and Agbaji were someone disappointing but not a total bust.
Mitchell at #9 was a bust.

It looks like you want to pick these guys in the 15-20 range though. Reaching for them in the lottery hasn't panned out well.

Article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5513010/2024/05/30/does-age-matter-in-the-nba-draft-plus-bronny-james-draft-status-and-the-nuggets-cba-problem/

[NatP4]

JL Bourg lost to Monaco today, so season over for Risacher. Had 8 points on 10 shots.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

JL Bourg lost to Monaco today, so season over for Risacher. Had 8 points on 10 shots.

Listening to Hawks podcasts...

Its funny, Wizards fans are afraid Risacher = Otto Porter & Atlanta fans are afraid Risacher = DeAndre Hunter.

[tontoz]

JL Bourg lost to Monaco today, so season over for Risacher. Had 8 points on 10 shots.

Listening to Hawks podcasts...

Its funny, Wizards fans are afraid Risacher = Otto Porter & Atlanta fans are afraid Risacher = DeAndre Hunter.

I liked Otto, he was just injury prone.

Otto was a high IQ player who seemed a step ahead of everyone else mentally. I don't see that in Risacher.

[Frichuela]

JL Bourg lost to Monaco today, so season over for Risacher. Had 8 points on 10 shots.

Listening to Hawks podcasts...

Its funny, Wizards fans are afraid Risacher = Otto Porter & Atlanta fans are afraid Risacher = DeAndre Hunter.

Lol

Seriously, an Otto Porter redux that does not get injured every other game may not be such a bad get in an underwhelming draft…

[NatP4]

JL Bourg lost to Monaco today, so season over for Risacher. Had 8 points on 10 shots.

Listening to Hawks podcasts...

Its funny, Wizards fans are afraid Risacher = Otto Porter & Atlanta fans are afraid Risacher = DeAndre Hunter.

I'm still out here on Topic island and I don't think it's all that close.

I think Sarr has a much better/safer range of outcomes than Risacher though. It's hard to think of the lower end/bust outcome comparisons for Sarr, but easy to think of a handful of solid NBA player comps that match the production/physical profile like Jonathan Isaac, Jaren Jackson Jr, Evan Mobley, Myles Turner, Nick Claxton.

Still think there's a lack of top end upside for being the top pick in the draft, but a really solid chance that he's a solid NBA player.

Risacher is a another story. His range of outcomes really does include some underwhelming pros like Hezonja, Knox, Harrison Barnes, and the top end outcomes is Michael Porter Jr I guess? I am still waiting for people to throw out any statistical/physical high end outcome comps for Risacher.

I like Buzelis alot more than Risacher. There's playmaking potential, elite athletic ability, potential to play the 4 in the NBA, and shot creation potential. Buzelis compares to guys like Franz Wagner/Gordon Hayward/Deni IMO.

[doclinkin]

“Actually watch him play”= I watched 10 minutes of YouTube highlights.

There's plenty of JL Bourg games up on Youtube. Here's his 28 point game:

Watch on YouTube

Plenty to both critique and appreciate in his game. Reasons for both doubt and hope for upside. Young guy playing in a tough league, high stakes. Mistakes made based on youth and needing strength. I still am team trade down though.

[NatP4]

Doc, we know Risacher is one of your guys in the draft, do you have any top end outcome comparisons for Risacher? Or do you think his top end outcome is the MPJ/Otto/Cam Johnson comparisons? I simply have not seen any all star level NBA comparisons even mentioned for Risacher.

Is that worth the 2nd overall pick in your mind?