Political Roundtable Part XXXIV

[Zonkerbl]

SNIP!!!

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I've gotta nitpick this, because it's an area where Dems come off sounding pretty tone deaf. "No Americans want to do these jobs" is something the top 10% wealthiest moderate Dems who are currently in charge of the party would say. No USians want to do these jobs AT THESE WAGES. If you started offering $20/hour for these jobs there would be plenty of teenagers glad to drive to wherever and do it, make bank over the summer and then spend the rest of the year at the beach smoking weed. This is what would happen if we slam the border shut and it would not necessarily be a bad thing. What this country needs is higher wages for low skilled jobs, every rural America inhabitant understands this. Yes our cotton candy grapes at Whole Foods will become more expensive, and man do Democrats like to whine about inflation. Suck it up or lose, you guys.

I'm about halfway through the article and so far they're just talking about how if you actually penalize businesses for hiring illegal labor the problem would go away, which is true. But it's not true the Texas economy would be devastated, they're agriculture would lose market share to Chile maybe. But businesses have to stop sucking blood from US labor like they've grown accustomed to over the last 45 years. They have to raise wages.

This paragraph in particular is EXTREMELY tone deaf:

"But the industry also faces a labor-force problem it cannot address quickly simply by raising pay. For two decades, the number of U.S.-born workers entering the construction trade has nosedived. Even if tomorrow all companies raised wages high enough to lure Texans away from their laptop jobs, it could take years of training to condition these newcomers to the rigors of building."

WTF are you talking about??? So-called "laptop jobs" are MAYBE a third of overall employment. You have got to be KIDDING me. I had inner city kids coming up to me begging to mow my lawn who didn't have a BANK ACCOUNT. And you're talking about LAPTOP WORKERS??? Are you STUPID????

Lots of the kids I grew up with who ended up addicted to crack in the 90s are carpenters and construction workers now. HELL YEAH they would move to Texas for higher wages. RAZZA FRAZZA FRICKIN FRACK!!! Laptop workers. JFC.

Let me just finish by saying that my policy all along has been to make coming to the States as difficult as possible and then integrating these extremely motivated workers as quickly as possible. I am 100% FOR the most cost effective means of stemming the flow of immigration, which is to penalize the DEMAND side, the businesses who hire illegal workers. Start imposing fines on these businesses and immigration will slow down significantly.

But by far the BEST solution to this mess is to increase taxes on the wealthy and use it to fund a UBI. This is all smoke and mirrors - the biggest factor holding down wages in the US is technological advance, not immigration. There is a huge AI/machine learning revolution going on right now that we can't see because of Trump's idiotic trade wars. We experienced a taste of it during the huge boom that occurred under Biden that made inflation so bad. Trump put the kibosh on that growth as soon as he stupidly could, the ignorant demented rapist. But all that growth is going to tech company shareholders right now, and for basically no good reason. Half of the gains of the tech boom should go to a UBI, a side payment from the winners to the losers so that no one is worse off. That's not socialism, it's well executed capitalism and we need to get our heads out of the ground.

[dckingsfan]

SNIP!!!

Read on Twitter

I've gotta nitpick this, because it's an area where Dems come off sounding pretty tone deaf. "No Americans want to do these jobs" is something the top 10% wealthiest moderate Dems who are currently in charge of the party would say. No USians want to do these jobs AT THESE WAGES. If you started offering $20/hour for these jobs there would be plenty of teenagers glad to drive to wherever and do it, make bank over the summer and then spend the rest of the year at the beach smoking weed. This is what would happen if we slam the border shut and it would not necessarily be a bad thing. What this country needs is higher wages for low skilled jobs, every rural America inhabitant understands this. Yes our cotton candy grapes at Whole Foods will become more expensive, and man do Democrats like to whine about inflation. Suck it up or lose, you guys.

I'm about halfway through the article and so far they're just talking about how if you actually penalize businesses for hiring illegal labor the problem would go away, which is true. But it's not true the Texas economy would be devastated, they're agriculture would lose market share to Chile maybe. But businesses have to stop sucking blood from US labor like they've grown accustomed to over the last 45 years. They have to raise wages.

This paragraph in particular is EXTREMELY tone deaf:

"But the industry also faces a labor-force problem it cannot address quickly simply by raising pay. For two decades, the number of U.S.-born workers entering the construction trade has nosedived. Even if tomorrow all companies raised wages high enough to lure Texans away from their laptop jobs, it could take years of training to condition these newcomers to the rigors of building."

WTF are you talking about??? So-called "laptop jobs" are MAYBE a third of overall employment. You have got to be KIDDING me. I had inner city kids coming up to me begging to mow my lawn who didn't have a BANK ACCOUNT. And you're talking about LAPTOP WORKERS??? Are you STUPID????

Lots of the kids I grew up with who ended up addicted to crack in the 90s are carpenters and construction workers now. HELL YEAH they would move to Texas for higher wages. RAZZA FRAZZA FRICKIN FRACK!!! Laptop workers. JFC.

Let me just finish by saying that my policy all along has been to make coming to the States as difficult as possible and then integrating these extremely motivated workers as quickly as possible. I am 100% FOR the most cost effective means of stemming the flow of immigration, which is to penalize the DEMAND side, the businesses who hire illegal workers. Start imposing fines on these businesses and immigration will slow down significantly.

But by far the BEST solution to this mess is to increase taxes on the wealthy and use it to fund a UBI. This is all smoke and mirrors - the biggest factor holding down wages in the US is technological advance, not immigration. There is a huge AI/machine learning revolution going on right now that we can't see because of Trump's idiotic trade wars. We experienced a taste of it during the huge boom that occurred under Biden that made inflation so bad. Trump put the kibosh on that growth as soon as he stupidly could, the ignorant demented rapist. But all that growth is going to tech company shareholders right now, and for basically no good reason. Half of the gains of the tech boom should go to a UBI, a side payment from the winners to the losers so that no one is worse off. That's not socialism, it's well executed capitalism and we need to get our heads out of the ground.

Hey Zonk, thanks for the response - but you kinda missed the point of my post, no?

The article points out is that blue states aren't enforcing these laws because it would mean an immediate (if not short-term) downturn in their collective economies. That is the only point that the article should make. How to address those issues on immigration is an entirely different matter. As a note, if you don't address the root causes, you solutions fail as well (you will need to think that through to better understand the issue).

Note, the article doesn't address the two root causes around immigration, namely the push and pull.

The push being destabilized countries or countries where the economy sucks. That will drive people to leave. Increase tariffs and they leave faster. Of course if you are in a country where you are targeted, you are going to leave there as quickly as you can. One more little thing that is going to become the elephant in the room - climate change.

The pull being us. Gradma wants her house cleaner. Grandpa wants his gardener. Farmer Joe needs his crops picked. Builder Bob needs labor to build his houses. Etc. Etc., Etc. We aren't addressing any of the root causes. And that means that those desperate enough will come anyway.

So, reconsider a few things. The root causes, the transition times, the reticence to address immigration due to the short-term pain, the lack of a plan to both train our current workers to work in other industries and to absorb our immigrants into our society.

One more thing - no, many kids parents aren't going to let their kids drive from the city out to the rural areas to work in a meat packing plant where the hospitals are being shut down. Just sayin'

Also reminder - inflation is a good chunk of why we got Trump - so there is that...

[FAH1223]

The big layoffs at the U.S. Department of State have hit some of my friends and former colleagues. I am gutted for them.

[Wizardspride]

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?t=EoWbqS3zxR8UZTRLJCtrRQ&s=19

[dobrojim]

I hope if she's serious that she is well protected.

[Zonkerbl]

SNIP!!!

Read on Twitter

I've gotta nitpick this, because it's an area where Dems come off sounding pretty tone deaf. "No Americans want to do these jobs" is something the top 10% wealthiest moderate Dems who are currently in charge of the party would say. No USians want to do these jobs AT THESE WAGES. If you started offering $20/hour for these jobs there would be plenty of teenagers glad to drive to wherever and do it, make bank over the summer and then spend the rest of the year at the beach smoking weed. This is what would happen if we slam the border shut and it would not necessarily be a bad thing. What this country needs is higher wages for low skilled jobs, every rural America inhabitant understands this. Yes our cotton candy grapes at Whole Foods will become more expensive, and man do Democrats like to whine about inflation. Suck it up or lose, you guys.

I'm about halfway through the article and so far they're just talking about how if you actually penalize businesses for hiring illegal labor the problem would go away, which is true. But it's not true the Texas economy would be devastated, they're agriculture would lose market share to Chile maybe. But businesses have to stop sucking blood from US labor like they've grown accustomed to over the last 45 years. They have to raise wages.

This paragraph in particular is EXTREMELY tone deaf:

"But the industry also faces a labor-force problem it cannot address quickly simply by raising pay. For two decades, the number of U.S.-born workers entering the construction trade has nosedived. Even if tomorrow all companies raised wages high enough to lure Texans away from their laptop jobs, it could take years of training to condition these newcomers to the rigors of building."

WTF are you talking about??? So-called "laptop jobs" are MAYBE a third of overall employment. You have got to be KIDDING me. I had inner city kids coming up to me begging to mow my lawn who didn't have a BANK ACCOUNT. And you're talking about LAPTOP WORKERS??? Are you STUPID????

Lots of the kids I grew up with who ended up addicted to crack in the 90s are carpenters and construction workers now. HELL YEAH they would move to Texas for higher wages. RAZZA FRAZZA FRICKIN FRACK!!! Laptop workers. JFC.

Let me just finish by saying that my policy all along has been to make coming to the States as difficult as possible and then integrating these extremely motivated workers as quickly as possible. I am 100% FOR the most cost effective means of stemming the flow of immigration, which is to penalize the DEMAND side, the businesses who hire illegal workers. Start imposing fines on these businesses and immigration will slow down significantly.

But by far the BEST solution to this mess is to increase taxes on the wealthy and use it to fund a UBI. This is all smoke and mirrors - the biggest factor holding down wages in the US is technological advance, not immigration. There is a huge AI/machine learning revolution going on right now that we can't see because of Trump's idiotic trade wars. We experienced a taste of it during the huge boom that occurred under Biden that made inflation so bad. Trump put the kibosh on that growth as soon as he stupidly could, the ignorant demented rapist. But all that growth is going to tech company shareholders right now, and for basically no good reason. Half of the gains of the tech boom should go to a UBI, a side payment from the winners to the losers so that no one is worse off. That's not socialism, it's well executed capitalism and we need to get our heads out of the ground.

Hey Zonk, thanks for the response - but you kinda missed the point of my post, no?

The article points out is that blue states aren't enforcing these laws because it would mean an immediate (if not short-term) downturn in their collective economies. That is the only point that the article should make. How to address those issues on immigration is an entirely different matter. As a note, if you don't address the root causes, you solutions fail as well (you will need to think that through to better understand the issue).

Note, the article doesn't address the two root causes around immigration, namely the push and pull.

The push being destabilized countries or countries where the economy sucks. That will drive people to leave. Increase tariffs and they leave faster. Of course if you are in a country where you are targeted, you are going to leave there as quickly as you can. One more little thing that is going to become the elephant in the room - climate change.

The pull being us. Gradma wants her house cleaner. Grandpa wants his gardener. Farmer Joe needs his crops picked. Builder Bob needs labor to build his houses. Etc. Etc., Etc. We aren't addressing any of the root causes. And that means that those desperate enough will come anyway.

So, reconsider a few things. The root causes, the transition times, the reticence to address immigration due to the short-term pain, the lack of a plan to both train our current workers to work in other industries and to absorb our immigrants into our society.

One more thing - no, many kids parents aren't going to let their kids drive from the city out to the rural areas to work in a meat packing plant where the hospitals are being shut down. Just sayin'

Also reminder - inflation is a good chunk of why we got Trump - so there is that...

Well, I didn't address the "it will tank their economies" argument because it's horsecrap. It wouldn't. Ag and construction are small parts of any state's economy and paying workers a little more won't tank anything, that's nonsense.

I give the example of kids spending a summer earning bank and spending the rest of the year on the beach because it's something that already happens, kids fresh out of high school head out to Alaska and fish for salmon, make big bucks and then spend the rest of the year in Jamaica getting baked. Compared to that, heading down to Texas from Ohio is nothing.

YOU might not let your kids do that. But I'm not going to speak for all the households in Southwest Ohio where the primary caregiver earns minimum wage, whose real wages have not changed since 1980. I would imagine it's not a question of LETTING kids from these households do things. They do what they have to, I imagine.

There is a more poverty in this country than you might think. You can't see it because it's difficult to find, it's not on I-70 as you drive from NY to LA. Also if you're in a middle class family probably all you've ever known is other middle class people. About 12% of households are at or below the poverty line, which is $7.50 / hour for a single person. In rural areas the poverty rate is 15%. The poverty rate for black people in rural areas is 30%. I bet there are some kids where I grew up who would be happy too go to Texas and toss watermelons around. It's a bs argument, "oh no one will take these jobs, it will destroy our economy, these dummy US workers are too dumb to be trained." Horsecrap. The wages being offered aren't enough to entice them to come to Texas to help out. Raise the wages.

[Benjammin]

It's enjoyable when I quickly visit and read substantive arguments being raised.

[dckingsfan]

I've gotta nitpick this, because it's an area where Dems come off sounding pretty tone deaf. "No Americans want to do these jobs" is something the top 10% wealthiest moderate Dems who are currently in charge of the party would say. No USians want to do these jobs AT THESE WAGES. If you started offering $20/hour for these jobs there would be plenty of teenagers glad to drive to wherever and do it, make bank over the summer and then spend the rest of the year at the beach smoking weed. This is what would happen if we slam the border shut and it would not necessarily be a bad thing. What this country needs is higher wages for low skilled jobs, every rural America inhabitant understands this. Yes our cotton candy grapes at Whole Foods will become more expensive, and man do Democrats like to whine about inflation. Suck it up or lose, you guys.

I'm about halfway through the article and so far they're just talking about how if you actually penalize businesses for hiring illegal labor the problem would go away, which is true. But it's not true the Texas economy would be devastated, they're agriculture would lose market share to Chile maybe. But businesses have to stop sucking blood from US labor like they've grown accustomed to over the last 45 years. They have to raise wages.

This paragraph in particular is EXTREMELY tone deaf:

"But the industry also faces a labor-force problem it cannot address quickly simply by raising pay. For two decades, the number of U.S.-born workers entering the construction trade has nosedived. Even if tomorrow all companies raised wages high enough to lure Texans away from their laptop jobs, it could take years of training to condition these newcomers to the rigors of building."

WTF are you talking about??? So-called "laptop jobs" are MAYBE a third of overall employment. You have got to be KIDDING me. I had inner city kids coming up to me begging to mow my lawn who didn't have a BANK ACCOUNT. And you're talking about LAPTOP WORKERS??? Are you STUPID????

Lots of the kids I grew up with who ended up addicted to crack in the 90s are carpenters and construction workers now. HELL YEAH they would move to Texas for higher wages. RAZZA FRAZZA FRICKIN FRACK!!! Laptop workers. JFC.

Let me just finish by saying that my policy all along has been to make coming to the States as difficult as possible and then integrating these extremely motivated workers as quickly as possible. I am 100% FOR the most cost effective means of stemming the flow of immigration, which is to penalize the DEMAND side, the businesses who hire illegal workers. Start imposing fines on these businesses and immigration will slow down significantly.

But by far the BEST solution to this mess is to increase taxes on the wealthy and use it to fund a UBI. This is all smoke and mirrors - the biggest factor holding down wages in the US is technological advance, not immigration. There is a huge AI/machine learning revolution going on right now that we can't see because of Trump's idiotic trade wars. We experienced a taste of it during the huge boom that occurred under Biden that made inflation so bad. Trump put the kibosh on that growth as soon as he stupidly could, the ignorant demented rapist. But all that growth is going to tech company shareholders right now, and for basically no good reason. Half of the gains of the tech boom should go to a UBI, a side payment from the winners to the losers so that no one is worse off. That's not socialism, it's well executed capitalism and we need to get our heads out of the ground.

Hey Zonk, thanks for the response - but you kinda missed the point of my post, no?

The article points out is that blue states aren't enforcing these laws because it would mean an immediate (if not short-term) downturn in their collective economies. That is the only point that the article should make. How to address those issues on immigration is an entirely different matter. As a note, if you don't address the root causes, you solutions fail as well (you will need to think that through to better understand the issue).

Note, the article doesn't address the two root causes around immigration, namely the push and pull.

The push being destabilized countries or countries where the economy sucks. That will drive people to leave. Increase tariffs and they leave faster. Of course if you are in a country where you are targeted, you are going to leave there as quickly as you can. One more little thing that is going to become the elephant in the room - climate change.

The pull being us. Gradma wants her house cleaner. Grandpa wants his gardener. Farmer Joe needs his crops picked. Builder Bob needs labor to build his houses. Etc. Etc., Etc. We aren't addressing any of the root causes. And that means that those desperate enough will come anyway.

So, reconsider a few things. The root causes, the transition times, the reticence to address immigration due to the short-term pain, the lack of a plan to both train our current workers to work in other industries and to absorb our immigrants into our society.

One more thing - no, many kids parents aren't going to let their kids drive from the city out to the rural areas to work in a meat packing plant where the hospitals are being shut down. Just sayin'

Also reminder - inflation is a good chunk of why we got Trump - so there is that...

Well, I didn't address the "it will tank their economies" argument because it's horsecrap. It wouldn't. Ag and construction are small parts of any state's economy and paying workers a little more won't tank anything, that's nonsense.

Zonk, with respect - of course it will and the size would depend on the state. When you add up all of the labor against all of the industries it makes a big difference (difference between an expanding revenue base and not) - especially for states like Texas and California ($50 billion in ag alone).

And reminder, there is a difference between state budgets and federal budgets. Revenue from ag goes down and you are talking cuts in services (for example). The housing industry, the same.

I don't disagree that we should have better immigration policies but we shouldn't underestimate or dismiss what the immigration labor force brings. If we do want to make a transition, we shouldn't underestimate the time frame to do it correctly either.

Lastly, since the US is at least partially responsible for the destabilization of countries in Central and South America + we have contributed more to climate change than any other country - do we get to dismiss our responsibilities there as well?

[AFM]

It's not a little more. I'm a developer in DC and the price of, let's just be honest--a white subcontractor-- can easily be 3x the labor cost. It's also not just about money. There's a different culture to work in those communities. Not many Americans want to hang drywall 6 days a week starting at 7 AM. No matter the pay.

Ask any electrician or plumber in the country if they're hiring. Regardless of the year the answer is always a resounding yes. Plumbers can easily make 6 figures and they will pay you to train you. They accept everybody. Alcoholics, drug addicts, felons. And yet no one wants to be a plumber. Why?

[Zonkerbl]

Hey Zonk, thanks for the response - but you kinda missed the point of my post, no?

The article points out is that blue states aren't enforcing these laws because it would mean an immediate (if not short-term) downturn in their collective economies. That is the only point that the article should make. How to address those issues on immigration is an entirely different matter. As a note, if you don't address the root causes, you solutions fail as well (you will need to think that through to better understand the issue).

Note, the article doesn't address the two root causes around immigration, namely the push and pull.

The push being destabilized countries or countries where the economy sucks. That will drive people to leave. Increase tariffs and they leave faster. Of course if you are in a country where you are targeted, you are going to leave there as quickly as you can. One more little thing that is going to become the elephant in the room - climate change.

The pull being us. Gradma wants her house cleaner. Grandpa wants his gardener. Farmer Joe needs his crops picked. Builder Bob needs labor to build his houses. Etc. Etc., Etc. We aren't addressing any of the root causes. And that means that those desperate enough will come anyway.

So, reconsider a few things. The root causes, the transition times, the reticence to address immigration due to the short-term pain, the lack of a plan to both train our current workers to work in other industries and to absorb our immigrants into our society.

One more thing - no, many kids parents aren't going to let their kids drive from the city out to the rural areas to work in a meat packing plant where the hospitals are being shut down. Just sayin'

Also reminder - inflation is a good chunk of why we got Trump - so there is that...

Well, I didn't address the "it will tank their economies" argument because it's horsecrap. It wouldn't. Ag and construction are small parts of any state's economy and paying workers a little more won't tank anything, that's nonsense.

Zonk, with respect - of course it will and the size would depend on the state. When you add up all of the labor against all of the industries it makes a big difference (difference between an expanding revenue base and not) - especially for states like Texas and California ($50 billion in ag alone).

And reminder, there is a difference between state budgets and federal budgets. Revenue from ag goes down and you are talking cuts in services (for example). The housing industry, the same.

I don't disagree that we should have better immigration policies but we shouldn't underestimate or dismiss what the immigration labor force brings. If we do want to make a transition, we shouldn't underestimate the time frame to do it correctly either.

Lastly, since the US is at least partially responsible for the destabilization of countries in Central and South America + we have contributed more to climate change than any other country - do we get to dismiss our responsibilities there as well?

Sorry I was too quick on the trigger, I edited the answer above to give a little more detail. But yeah, ag is a TINY part of our economy. TINY!!! The share of ag in GDP is 0.5%. The share of ag in employment is 2%. That's what it is in Texas and that's what it is in California. I WORKED AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE IN USDA FOR FOUR YEARS. Trust me!

Construction is a little more. 5% in Texas. But come on. We're talking a very tiny share of the economy. No one's economy is going to be ruined by paying ag workers, construction workers more. It's nonsense.

[Zonkerbl]

It's not a little more. I'm a developer in DC and the price of, let's just be honest--a white subcontractor-- can easily be 3x the labor cost. It's also not just about money. There's a different culture to work in those communities. Not many Americans want to hang drywall 6 days a week starting at 7 AM. No matter the pay.

Ask any electrician or plumber in the country if they're hiring. Regardless of the year the answer is always a resounding yes. Plumbers can easily make 6 figures and they will pay you to train you. They accept everybody. Alcoholics, drug addicts, felons. And yet no one wants to be a plumber. Why?

3x of 0.5% is still small. No one's economy is going to be devastated if we stopped immigrants from coming in and started paying these workers the real opportunity cost of their time.

I don't think we should send brown people to Central American gulags, I think we should have an orderly process for immigrating, I think we should penalize companies for not complying with local labor laws. But I do not for one second believe that ending the special carveout in immigration policy for agricultural superfarms in the South is going to hurt anyone. Horsecrap. HORSECRAP

[AFM]

It's not a little more. I'm a developer in DC and the price of, let's just be honest--a white subcontractor-- can easily be 3x the labor cost. It's also not just about money. There's a different culture to work in those communities. Not many Americans want to hang drywall 6 days a week starting at 7 AM. No matter the pay.

Ask any electrician or plumber in the country if they're hiring. Regardless of the year the answer is always a resounding yes. Plumbers can easily make 6 figures and they will pay you to train you. They accept everybody. Alcoholics, drug addicts, felons. And yet no one wants to be a plumber. Why?

3x of 0.5% is still small. No one's economy is going to be devastated if we stopped immigrants from coming in and started paying these workers the real opportunity cost of their time.

I don't think we should send brown people to Central American gulags, I think we should have an orderly process for immigrating, I think we should penalize companies for not complying with local labor laws. But I do not for one second believe that ending the special carveout in immigration policy for agricultural superfarms in the South is going to hurt anyone. Horsecrap. HORSECRAP

I'm talking about actual construction costs. You think construction companies can absorb 3x the labor cost?

Granted I've sort of skimmed through the last page or so maybe I'm not even on topic right now lol

[dckingsfan]

It's not a little more. I'm a developer in DC and the price of, let's just be honest--a white subcontractor-- can easily be 3x the labor cost. It's also not just about money. There's a different culture to work in those communities. Not many Americans want to hang drywall 6 days a week starting at 7 AM. No matter the pay.

Ask any electrician or plumber in the country if they're hiring. Regardless of the year the answer is always a resounding yes. Plumbers can easily make 6 figures and they will pay you to train you. They accept everybody. Alcoholics, drug addicts, felons. And yet no one wants to be a plumber. Why?

3x of 0.5% is still small. No one's economy is going to be devastated if we stopped immigrants from coming in and started paying these workers the real opportunity cost of their time.

I don't think we should send brown people to Central American gulags, I think we should have an orderly process for immigrating, I think we should penalize companies for not complying with local labor laws. But I do not for one second believe that ending the special carveout in immigration policy for agricultural superfarms in the South is going to hurt anyone. Horsecrap. HORSECRAP

So, let me just take CA. Ag is 3% of California's GDP, about the same for construction, 35% of CA's registered nurses are foreign born, then you have the restaurant industry, tourism industry, etc., etc.

They (both documented and undocumented) contribute near to 10% of the states overall economic activity. And they are crucial for local and state budgets.

We shouldn't use the term "destroy" except for what Trump is trying to do to red states (blue states are exempt (for now, he always turns on his friends in time)).

But if you "quickly" remove 10% of an economy, there is going to be hardship. Full Stop. And it will come in ways that we don't see. We will have significant inflation for food and housing - one of the "things" that Trump won on. We are going to have decreased services for healthcare and hospice care - if you have ever cared for the elderly, you understand how difficult it is to get those workers.

Please, do not handwave the significance of "suddenly" changing systems. This should be entirely clear to an economist like yourself. Don't dig in, please.

To your larger point - you are entirely correct. We need a better immigration policy - full and violent agreement with you on this one. And we need the processes and infrastructure to make this a success. While at the same time understanding our deficiencies and demographics. The deficiencies is the labor that we aren't producing or can't and the demographics is our aging population and the need to support programs like SS with new workers.

[dckingsfan]

It's not a little more. I'm a developer in DC and the price of, let's just be honest--a white subcontractor-- can easily be 3x the labor cost. It's also not just about money. There's a different culture to work in those communities. Not many Americans want to hang drywall 6 days a week starting at 7 AM. No matter the pay.

Ask any electrician or plumber in the country if they're hiring. Regardless of the year the answer is always a resounding yes. Plumbers can easily make 6 figures and they will pay you to train you. They accept everybody. Alcoholics, drug addicts, felons. And yet no one wants to be a plumber. Why?

3x of 0.5% is still small. No one's economy is going to be devastated if we stopped immigrants from coming in and started paying these workers the real opportunity cost of their time.

I don't think we should send brown people to Central American gulags, I think we should have an orderly process for immigrating, I think we should penalize companies for not complying with local labor laws. But I do not for one second believe that ending the special carveout in immigration policy for agricultural superfarms in the South is going to hurt anyone. Horsecrap. HORSECRAP

I'm talking about actual construction costs. You think construction companies can absorb 3x the labor cost?

Granted I've sort of skimmed through the last page or so maybe I'm not even on topic right now lol

You aren't off topic and housing starts and construction costs are very material to inflation in the country.

Local government regulation on slowing down new housing starts has been material. This is one of the worst things most developers have to deal with - local governments for the most part are NIMBY.

Recent increases in material costs have hurt as well as labor costs. One of the things that have kept both in check is immigrant labor.

Okay, you can laugh at me since you live these issues and I just reflect on them from a home buyers perspective.

[Zonkerbl]

We're not talking about nuking healthcare from orbit. Let's stay focused here.

First of all, this article is clearly written to be subservient to the Southern ag lobbyists asking for a special exemption to immigration policy so they can continue to pay immigrants the wages they used to pay newly freed slaves. Let's set that aside - we all agree that's horsecrap.

Next there are some concerns mentioned in passing about construction and healthcare. Those are more legit. But it's DIFFERENT. For healthcare, we are absolutely not talking about illegal immigrants, these are foreign born workers, that is a different issue ENTIRELY. Honestly I didn't read the whole article but that's just a completely different thing. Yes Trump is considering erasing THOSE WORKERS because he's an IDIOT and a tinpot dictator, and the consequences for everybody are enormous if the GOP allows him to get away with it. But! Not what we're talking about.

The *only* thing in this article worth worrying about is construction costs, which have been skyrocketing since the AUGHTS because CHINA's demand for COMMODITIES has been EXPLODING EACH YEAR FOR THE PAST 30 YEARS!!! So PRICES in CONSTRUCTION have been absolutely OUT OF CONTROL for a while now. And so yeah of course there's a desire to control other costs by paying construction workers less and one way to do that is to hire illegal immigrants and pay them ish wages.

THAT SUCKS. First of all, I just don't like it. I don't think you should screw U.S. workers that way. Anyway, it's fine if construction prices go up to reflect the economic realities we are in, instead of squeezing poor people to maintain the status quo. Prices are higher. Deal with it. Construction is NOT IMPORTANT in and of itself, again it is a small share of the economy. People WATCH construction carefully because it is a LEADING INDICATOR of future economic growth. But if construction slows for some reason other than consumer sentiment, IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Compared to the economic growth fueled by the AI/machine learning boom, this is all rounding error.

[Zonkerbl]

I'm so mad. The stock market should be EXPLODING right now. I should be able to retire five years earlier by now. But no, fricking DJT and his stupid tariffs.

[dckingsfan]

We're not talking about nuking healthcare from orbit. Let's stay focused here.

First of all, this article is clearly written to be subservient to the Southern ag lobbyists asking for a special exemption to immigration policy so they can continue to pay immigrants the wages they used to pay newly freed slaves. Let's set that aside - we all agree that's horsecrap.

Next there are some concerns mentioned in passing about construction and healthcare. Those are more legit. But it's DIFFERENT. For healthcare, we are absolutely not talking about illegal immigrants, these are foreign born workers, that is a different issue ENTIRELY. Honestly I didn't read the whole article but that's just a completely different thing. Yes Trump is considering erasing THOSE WORKERS because he's an IDIOT and a tinpot dictator, and the consequences for everybody are enormous if the GOP allows him to get away with it. But! Not what we're talking about.

The *only* thing in this article worth worrying about is construction costs, which have been skyrocketing since the AUGHTS because CHINA's demand for COMMODITIES has been EXPLODING EACH YEAR FOR THE PAST 30 YEARS!!! So PRICES in CONSTRUCTION have been absolutely OUT OF CONTROL for a while now. And so yeah of course there's a desire to control other costs by paying construction workers less and one way to do that is to hire illegal immigrants and pay them ish wages.

THAT SUCKS. First of all, I just don't like it. I don't think you should screw U.S. workers that way. Anyway, it's fine if construction prices go up to reflect the economic realities we are in, instead of squeezing poor people to maintain the status quo. Prices are higher. Deal with it. Construction is NOT IMPORTANT in and of itself, again it is a small share of the economy. People WATCH construction carefully because it is a LEADING INDICATOR of future economic growth. But if construction slows for some reason other than consumer sentiment, IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Compared to the economic growth fueled by the AI/machine learning boom, this is all rounding error.

Hey Zonk, again - the only point to read into that article is that Southern States are trying NOT to enforce immigration. And yes, they want cheap labor.

Also, in CA many of those working in the healthcare field would be affected. many would never have been allowed in and are now being pressured to leave. And that doesn't even count those in hospice care - many would be affected.

I will let AFM comment on construction costs. You might want to do a bit more research on the reasons for the increased costs to build housing. You might find that materials are the root cause. Also research when housing starts fell and when supply fell past elasticity in certain regions. It is supply and demand that is biting us hard right now.

Also, research if housing costs are a major driver of inflation - it might not be a small part of inflation, just sayin' -- MY TAKE -- Opinion -- we should "build baby build" and get out of the way of the developers to bring down the price of housing. To do that we need to keep local communities from blocking development, cut tariffs on goods used for housing development and stop doing stupid stuff on immigration to reduce the labor bottlenecks.

Two things that I know you know - economic expansion and employment are different, right?

AI most certainly has the potential to significantly enhance economic growth by increasing productivity and creating new products and services. Fully onboard with that (and invested in the trend).

However, the overall impact on GDP AND employment remains uncertain with respect to timeframes (sooner or later). Also, several teams that I am working with are short on labor which is slowing their time to market. When they say short on labor think H1B visas. Note: The number of H-1B visa registrations has dropped around 40% for 2025.

Let's cut immigration and cede AI to other countries, no?

[Zonkerbl]

We're not talking about nuking healthcare from orbit. Let's stay focused here.

First of all, this article is clearly written to be subservient to the Southern ag lobbyists asking for a special exemption to immigration policy so they can continue to pay immigrants the wages they used to pay newly freed slaves. Let's set that aside - we all agree that's horsecrap.

Next there are some concerns mentioned in passing about construction and healthcare. Those are more legit. But it's DIFFERENT. For healthcare, we are absolutely not talking about illegal immigrants, these are foreign born workers, that is a different issue ENTIRELY. Honestly I didn't read the whole article but that's just a completely different thing. Yes Trump is considering erasing THOSE WORKERS because he's an IDIOT and a tinpot dictator, and the consequences for everybody are enormous if the GOP allows him to get away with it. But! Not what we're talking about.

The *only* thing in this article worth worrying about is construction costs, which have been skyrocketing since the AUGHTS because CHINA's demand for COMMODITIES has been EXPLODING EACH YEAR FOR THE PAST 30 YEARS!!! So PRICES in CONSTRUCTION have been absolutely OUT OF CONTROL for a while now. And so yeah of course there's a desire to control other costs by paying construction workers less and one way to do that is to hire illegal immigrants and pay them ish wages.

THAT SUCKS. First of all, I just don't like it. I don't think you should screw U.S. workers that way. Anyway, it's fine if construction prices go up to reflect the economic realities we are in, instead of squeezing poor people to maintain the status quo. Prices are higher. Deal with it. Construction is NOT IMPORTANT in and of itself, again it is a small share of the economy. People WATCH construction carefully because it is a LEADING INDICATOR of future economic growth. But if construction slows for some reason other than consumer sentiment, IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Compared to the economic growth fueled by the AI/machine learning boom, this is all rounding error.

Hey Zonk, again - the only point to read into that article is that Southern States are trying NOT to enforce immigration. And yes, they want cheap labor.

Also, in CA many of those working in the healthcare field would be affected. many would never have been allowed in and are now being pressured to leave. And that doesn't even count those in hospice care - many would be affected.

I will let AFM comment on construction costs. You might want to do a bit more research on the reasons for the increased costs to build housing. You might find that materials are the root cause. Also research when housing starts fell and when supply fell past elasticity in certain regions. It is supply and demand that is biting us hard right now.

Also, research if housing costs are a major driver of inflation - it might not be a small part of inflation, just sayin' -- MY TAKE -- Opinion -- we should "build baby build" and get out of the way of the developers to bring down the price of housing. To do that we need to keep local communities from blocking development, cut tariffs on goods used for housing development and stop doing stupid stuff on immigration to reduce the labor bottlenecks.

Two things that I know you know - economic expansion and employment are different, right?

AI most certainly has the potential to significantly enhance economic growth by increasing productivity and creating new products and services. Fully onboard with that (and invested in the trend).

However, the overall impact on GDP AND employment remains uncertain with respect to timeframes (sooner or later). Also, several teams that I am working with are short on labor which is slowing their time to market. When they say short on labor think H1B visas. Note: The number of H-1B visa registrations has dropped around 40% for 2025.

Let's cut immigration and cede AI to other countries, no?

"materials is the root cause" is exactly what I said? Material costs are rising and have been for the last thirty years because of increased demand *for commodities* from China. Wood. Stone. Other buildinig materials.

Housing costs are left out of the definition of inflation so no, rising houseing costs definitely don't count in inflation. However, the need to pay for your property in downtown locations is why downtown food is more expensive. Housing costs are really a wealth distribution variable, the higher they are in real terms, the bigger the disparity between homeowners and renters in terms of wealth.

This whole thread started with me talking about the liberal tendency to justify opposing Trump's immigration policies by saying "no one wants those jobs." That's a crock. We need immigration because everybody wants to move here and that lets us steal the smartest people through the h1-b program and it allows us to steal all the super determined "I am going to do this if it kills me" people and the fact that our entire nation is populated by such people and their descendents is why we are the greatest nation in the world. That is the argument for immigration. Not "no one wants those jobs." That's an argument for sticking it to poor people.

Saying "no one wants those jobs" is tone deaf and stupid and untrue. The very least you can do is understand that "no one wants those jobs" is the same as saying "I would rather stick needles in my eyes than raise wages to these scum who don't deserve to live." Look at who is saying it, like really look (Southern superfarms owned by extremely wealthy people whose entire sector exists only because they pay recently-freed-slave wages?), and ask yourself if that is who you want to align yourself with. It should be an easy decision.

I've been studying AI because I need to transfer out of being an "aid" associated worker, and I figure I can try to transition over to machine learning. You don't understand. Back when I first got my Ph.D. the biggest problem in econometrics was getting generalized method of moments models to converge. This is important because GMM models can handle non-linearity. Ordinary Least Squares is linear and only a first order approximation of relationships between things. But non-linearities are how we view the world. It is how tastes in music, art, movies are determined. If you want to predict what people will like, you need an algorithm that can handle non-linear relationships. If you want an algorithm that can understand spoken language or see images (and drive cars), it has to handle non-linear relationships. We couldn't do it. Then all of a sudden we could, in 2012 or so, because we figured out how to get neural networks to understand non-linear relationships for it. That is an astonishing leap forward. But we haven't *seen* it because once the ai boom started, Trump was elected and imposed his stupid China tariffs, which blunted the growth we should have been getting. Biden didn't undo the tariffs and then we got hit by COVID, but by the end of his Presidency the underlying fundamental growth being caused by AI started to explode through, although the Fox News propaganda network managed to convince everyone that explosive economic growth is bad if under a Dem president. And now Trump is doing it *again.* The DJIA has risen by exactly 0% since Jan 21st. Trump has been *horrible* for the economy. And the economy should be just exploding now with 8 years of pent up growth blowing up underneath us like a volcano. When it finally erupts it's going to be very disruptive. Meanwhile all the AI CEOs are deliberately manipulating things so only shareholders will benefit when it does erupt. Laborer will get screwed, and I'm not talking about ag laborers, I'm talking about coders and creators. And we're in a service economy now, THAT is where all the jobs are.

[dckingsfan]

We're not talking about nuking healthcare from orbit. Let's stay focused here.

First of all, this article is clearly written to be subservient to the Southern ag lobbyists asking for a special exemption to immigration policy so they can continue to pay immigrants the wages they used to pay newly freed slaves. Let's set that aside - we all agree that's horsecrap.

Next there are some concerns mentioned in passing about construction and healthcare. Those are more legit. But it's DIFFERENT. For healthcare, we are absolutely not talking about illegal immigrants, these are foreign born workers, that is a different issue ENTIRELY. Honestly I didn't read the whole article but that's just a completely different thing. Yes Trump is considering erasing THOSE WORKERS because he's an IDIOT and a tinpot dictator, and the consequences for everybody are enormous if the GOP allows him to get away with it. But! Not what we're talking about.

The *only* thing in this article worth worrying about is construction costs, which have been skyrocketing since the AUGHTS because CHINA's demand for COMMODITIES has been EXPLODING EACH YEAR FOR THE PAST 30 YEARS!!! So PRICES in CONSTRUCTION have been absolutely OUT OF CONTROL for a while now. And so yeah of course there's a desire to control other costs by paying construction workers less and one way to do that is to hire illegal immigrants and pay them ish wages.

THAT SUCKS. First of all, I just don't like it. I don't think you should screw U.S. workers that way. Anyway, it's fine if construction prices go up to reflect the economic realities we are in, instead of squeezing poor people to maintain the status quo. Prices are higher. Deal with it. Construction is NOT IMPORTANT in and of itself, again it is a small share of the economy. People WATCH construction carefully because it is a LEADING INDICATOR of future economic growth. But if construction slows for some reason other than consumer sentiment, IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Compared to the economic growth fueled by the AI/machine learning boom, this is all rounding error.

Hey Zonk, again - the only point to read into that article is that Southern States are trying NOT to enforce immigration. And yes, they want cheap labor.

Also, in CA many of those working in the healthcare field would be affected. many would never have been allowed in and are now being pressured to leave. And that doesn't even count those in hospice care - many would be affected.

I will let AFM comment on construction costs. You might want to do a bit more research on the reasons for the increased costs to build housing. You might find that materials are the root cause. Also research when housing starts fell and when supply fell past elasticity in certain regions. It is supply and demand that is biting us hard right now.

Also, research if housing costs are a major driver of inflation - it might not be a small part of inflation, just sayin' -- MY TAKE -- Opinion -- we should "build baby build" and get out of the way of the developers to bring down the price of housing. To do that we need to keep local communities from blocking development, cut tariffs on goods used for housing development and stop doing stupid stuff on immigration to reduce the labor bottlenecks.

Two things that I know you know - economic expansion and employment are different, right?

AI most certainly has the potential to significantly enhance economic growth by increasing productivity and creating new products and services. Fully onboard with that (and invested in the trend).

However, the overall impact on GDP AND employment remains uncertain with respect to timeframes (sooner or later). Also, several teams that I am working with are short on labor which is slowing their time to market. When they say short on labor think H1B visas. Note: The number of H-1B visa registrations has dropped around 40% for 2025.

Let's cut immigration and cede AI to other countries, no?

"materials is the root cause" is exactly what I said? Material costs are rising and have been for the last thirty years because of increased demand *for commodities* from China. Wood. Stone. Other buildinig materials.

Housing costs are left out of the definition of inflation so no, rising houseing costs definitely don't count in inflation. However, the need to pay for your property in downtown locations is why downtown food is more expensive. Housing costs are really a wealth distribution variable, the higher they are in real terms, the bigger the disparity between homeowners and renters in terms of wealth.

This whole thread started with me talking about the liberal tendency to justify opposing Trump's immigration policies by saying "no one wants those jobs." That's a crock. We need immigration because everybody wants to move here and that lets us steal the smartest people through the h1-b program and it allows us to steal all the super determined "I am going to do this if it kills me" people and the fact that our entire nation is populated by such people and their descendents is why we are the greatest nation in the world. That is the argument for immigration. Not "no one wants those jobs." That's an argument for sticking it to poor people.

Saying "no one wants those jobs" is tone deaf and stupid and untrue. The very least you can do is understand that "no one wants those jobs" is the same as saying "I would rather stick needles in my eyes than raise wages to these scum who don't deserve to live." Look at who is saying it, like really look (Southern superfarms owned by extremely wealthy people whose entire sector exists only because they pay recently-freed-slave wages?), and ask yourself if that is who you want to align yourself with. It should be an easy decision.

I've been studying AI because I need to transfer out of being an "aid" associated worker, and I figure I can try to transition over to machine learning. You don't understand. Back when I first got my Ph.D. the biggest problem in econometrics was getting generalized method of moments models to converge. This is important because GMM models can handle non-linearity. Ordinary Least Squares is linear and only a first order approximation of relationships between things. But non-linearities are how we view the world. It is how tastes in music, art, movies are determined. If you want to predict what people will like, you need an algorithm that can handle non-linear relationships. If you want an algorithm that can understand spoken language or see images (and drive cars), it has to handle non-linear relationships. We couldn't do it. Then all of a sudden we could, in 2012 or so, because we figured out how to get neural networks to understand non-linear relationships for it. That is an astonishing leap forward. But we haven't *seen* it because once the ai boom started, Trump was elected and imposed his stupid China tariffs, which blunted the growth we should have been getting. Biden didn't undo the tariffs and then we got hit by COVID, but by the end of his Presidency the underlying fundamental growth being caused by AI started to explode through, although the Fox News propaganda network managed to convince everyone that explosive economic growth is bad if under a Dem president. And now Trump is doing it *again.* The DJIA has risen by exactly 0% since Jan 21st. Trump has been *horrible* for the economy. And the economy should be just exploding now with 8 years of pent up growth blowing up underneath us like a volcano. When it finally erupts it's going to be very disruptive. Meanwhile all the AI CEOs are deliberately manipulating things so only shareholders will benefit when it does erupt. Laborer will get screwed, and I'm not talking about ag laborers, I'm talking about coders and creators. And we're in a service economy now, THAT is where all the jobs are.

No - material costs aren't the #1 thing that is driving up housing costs. It is a shortage of housing, followed by local communities slowing the development and adding additional hoops to jump through and then... material costs and labor. And just because it isn't reported in the inflation number doesn't mean it isn't inflationary (also, shelter category of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

And the why on Trump's immigration policy isn't because folks don't to enforce immigration (a misdemeanor) with jackboots. His process is also one of the biggest waste of tax dollars. We are now putting dollars into ICE and the prison industrial complex and cutting jobs at NIH. That just doesn't make sense. Now back to you only point that we disagree. But only slightly. If you suddenly removed all of the illegal immigrants and those that are here legally (his plan) you won't have enough labor. Why? Our demographics. Our labor force participation rates (for those that matter) are at a near all-time high. If you are already employed in a city, you aren't going to move to a farm to pick crops - it just ain't happening. The correct phrase is: If you already have a job, you don't want that job.

And yes, duh on Trump and the economy - his non-economic plan stinks. Many saw this coming but... others got sucked in by the millions of murders coming across the border so they voted against their own interests.

And don't forget, he is once again burying us in debt. Yay! We get to default, raise taxes by an enormous amount or go with the old trusty stagflation. You might even see the dollar fall against other currencies?

[montestewart]

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