Arenas Traded for Rashard Lewis

[AceDegenerate]

Gilbert was giving us 17.3ppg/5.4apg before being traded. That is with half of those games coming off the bench.

Gilbert's current production has less to do with being damaged goods than it does with being in a less than ideal situation. Gil is a rhythm player that needs to start, he will never be able to produce coming off the bench in limited minutes. He was getting 34mpg here to put up those #'s, and if anyone (Magic fans included) wants to see his production increase - his role needs to increase as well.

Gil may be happy playing for a "contender", but as far as his personal stats go - he would have been better off somewhere like Toronto or Cleveland where there would really be no pressure and he could go out and get his numbers.

[Ruzious]

Really? A better question would be how many players miss as many games as he has over the last 4 years and come back to be the players they used to be? Just look at Portland - Roy and Oden were set to be superstars for a decade, and now - What are the odds they're going to be what they were?

Amare comes to mind.

I don't know if Kidd counts. He came back to be a very good player, but was never quite the same caliber as the pre-injury Kidd.

Why would Amare come to mind? He missed 1 season - sandwiched by seasons playing 80 and 82 games.

[Shanghai Kid]

This may sound crazy or biased, but I would honestly give Gilbert 'one' more off-season before I write him off as a completely horrible player.

First, let's admit, Gilbert off the bench is never going to be that affective. He has to win the starting spot in Orlando or he may be always be a scrub. But why give him a whole off-season before judging him? Well, I'm basing this on my idea that there is no reason why Gilbert shouldn't be able to get back to his 09-10 version which was a 20ppg/7 assists player. It's been a CRAZY year for Gil since than. As many personal problems as a guy can have. And his game is suffering because of it.

Those that simply blame his injuries, how did he average 22ppg/7 assists for us last year? He's not significantly older and he hasn't had any surgeries since than. I REALLY do think something is going on with him mentally, I mean he doesn't even make 3s any more. I can't believe that even his outside shot would suddenly go broke. In November with us, he shot 37% from 3s.

I don't think their is any president for a guy averaging 22ppg one season, and the next season falling to 8ppg and looking like an NBDL player. Something is amiss there.

But, given a full off-season to clear his head and focus on his game, he would come into next season as a 29 year old, knowing it would be the ultimate make or break season for him. I also think if he really looked like his old self in training camp, he would win the starting spot over Nelson. Hopefully his whole woman issue would be more in the back ground by than.

[FAH1223]

Gilbert needs to play 35 MPG as a starter and he will easily average over 20 PPG and 7 AST

He is a rhythm player and scorer... his rhythm is off as a bench player.

[ErikChowbay023]

It is very apparent that Gilbert is not a bench player. With that said, right now he is playing winning basketball. Making the right plays and right decisions almost every time he has the basketball. He is even showing great effort on defense. Maybe his temporary physical deficiencies are helping him to become a more well rounded player.

[JonathanJoseph]

There's just no precedent for a guy to go from an elite player to a bad player very quickly.

Hmmm, that's a interesting thought. How many guys who were All-Star caliber in their primes got injured and returned but completely fell off statistically, never to return? All before 30?

Penny Hardaway is the first guy that comes to mind as a guy who was at the top of his game, blew out his knee, and came back to play but was never the same. I don't put Grant Hill in that group because he missed so much time at an older and remarkably he's still a starter. And I left out Allan Houston because he never really came back from his injury.

Can anyone else think of anybody?

Rico, I went through that very exercise a few pages back in this thread. Arenas' play this year is a drop off that goes beyond anything we've seen by Hardaway, Grant Hill, Bill Walton, etc.

Allan Houston doesn't get put in the discussion. He had his best career season at 31 years old and that was a 17.7 PER. He had never topped 16.5 in a season before that. He went down to 14.8 PER the next season and then 12.5 PER the year that it was apparent that he gave up. The falloff between his best and worst/final seasons is still smaller than Gil's falloff from last season.

Hardaway was a 21.4 PER when he hurt his knee. The next 4 injury riddled years he played between PER 16-18. Only after he turned 30 did he start declining from there.

Grant Hill was a 23-24 PER player before his injury. When he tried to play those first years in Orlando (only 14 and 4 games) his PERs were still 16.7 and 18.1 before he came back to play multiple seasons of >20 PER basketball.

Prime Arenas was a 24 PER player and the post-knee injury Arenas was a steady 18-19 PER player but his PER this year is 12.2 overall and 9.9 with Orlando. There are not precedents for that kind of a fall off in one season much less over the course of a career. And Arenas (20) has a higher career PER than Hardaway (17.7) or Grant Hill (19.7)

As I said in that post, if Arenas' problems are related to his knee, than it will be the single most debilitating knee injury in NBA history in terms of production lost, and that's unfathomable coming from a franchise already known for decades of bad luck.

[JonathanJoseph]

It is very apparent that Gilbert is not a bench player. With that said, right now he is playing winning basketball. Making the right plays and right decisions almost every time he has the basketball. He is even showing great effort on defense. Maybe his temporary physical deficiencies are helping him to become a more well rounded player.

Not really. He has zero confidence. In the 4th quarter today he passed up a WIDE open 3 pointer to penetrate and then tried to force a pass to Dwight Howard that was picked off. SVG put Jameer Nelson in the game right there and when the whistle blew Arenas was running back to the bench as if he knew he was going to get pulled.

[leswizards]

Prime Arenas was a 24 PER player and the post-knee injury Arenas was a steady 18-19 PER player but his PER this year is 12.2 overall and 9.9 with Orlando.

Arenas achieved that prime 24 per as a PG exclusively. He played less than 50 games the past 3 seasons, so I don't get where you are claiming that he was a steady 18-19 per player post injury. This season with the Wizards, Gil had a 16 per as a PG. The reason his overall per was so low with the Wizards is he was being played out of position at SG with the Wizards. 82games.com has not updated their data recently, so I can't comment on his per's with Orlando, but I expect the same.

When most stars are injured, they rehab their knees properly, and they come back to play the same position they were playing prior to the injury. In Gil's case, he failed to rehab his knee properly, and he is being asked to play a position that he has not shown the ability to produce at.

[nate33]

Arenas achieved that prime 24 per as a PG exclusively. He played less than 50 games the past 3 seasons, so I don't get where you are claiming that he was a steady 18-19 per player post injury. This season with the Wizards, Gil had a 16 per as a PG. The reason his overall per was so low with the Wizards is he was being played out of position at SG with the Wizards. 82games.com has not updated their data recently, so I can't comment on his per's with Orlando, but I expect the same

Arenas' overall PER since joining Orlando is 9.3. Most of that has been at the PG position.

There are only 6 players in the league averaging 20 or more minutes per game who are posting a lower PER than Arenas (the Orlando Arenas, that is): Derick Fisher, Raja Bell,Travis Outlaw, Michael Pietrus, Steve Blake and Joel Anthony. And one can argue that Bell, Pietrus and Anthony aren't so bad because at least they play above-average defense when they're on the floor.

Honestly, one can argue that Arenas is one of the four worst regular-rotation players in basketball right now.

[JonathanJoseph]

Prime Arenas was a 24 PER player and the post-knee injury Arenas was a steady 18-19 PER player but his PER this year is 12.2 overall and 9.9 with Orlando.

Arenas achieved that prime 24 per as a PG exclusively. He played less than 50 games the past 3 seasons, so I don't get where you are claiming that he was a steady 18-19 per player post injury. This season with the Wizards, Gil had a 16 per as a PG. The reason his overall per was so low with the Wizards is he was being played out of position at SG with the Wizards. 82games.com has not updated their data recently, so I can't comment on his per's with Orlando, but I expect the same.

When most stars are injured, they rehab their knees properly, and they come back to play the same position they were playing prior to the injury. In Gil's case, he failed to rehab his knee properly, and he is being asked to play a position that he has not shown the ability to produce at.

Please stop making this bad argument. It holds no water. FYI, there is no traditional PG in Eddie Jordan's offense and Arenas' PER as a pure PG in Orlando is his worst yet.

[Dat2U]

Arenas isn't this bad. And if he was still playing for Washington his PER wouldn't have been 9.3 over the last month or so. Success in the NBA depends so much on confidence. And it's hard for Gil to find that confidence coming off the bench and deferring to everyone else. He's always been a rhythm player and right now its like he's completely off beat.

This has been a lose, lose trade. Neither team really won. Orlando got stuck with a massive contract and under performing player that's not adapted well to his situation and Washington got stuck with a slightly less massive contract and an under performing player that might need surgery sooner than later.

Orlando is still a 2nd tier contender and the Wizards are still one of the worst teams in the NBA so nothing has changed in that aspect. The notion that the Wizards locker room improved or their defense got significantly better was a mirage. This trade has been the basketball version of purgatory.

[Ruzious]

My view, fwiw, Gil's going to get better to a degree. He'll likely be a decent player - no more no less. A big part of his adjustment period with Orlando is - His numbers here were high only because he was allowed to be an inefficient player. With a good team like Orlando, the coach simply isn't going to put up with that. His PER was still high here mainly because he controlled the ball a lot and shot a lot. He scored a lot, but his shooting percentages stunk. He got a fair number of assists, but his to's were too high. I'm no stat guy, but it seems to me, the stat guys should perhaps adjust the way PER is computed, so that it does a better job of punishing inefficient play.

[leswizards]

Please stop making this bad argument. It holds no water. FYI, there is no traditional PG in Eddie Jordan's offense and Arenas' PER as a pure PG in Orlando is his worst yet.

You don't like the arguement, because you can't handle the truth of it, and how it refutes your blindly optimistic view of Gil.

There may have been been no pure PG in EG's system, but Gil constantly guarded and was guarded by PGs during those years. As a SG, he has constantly guarded and been guarded by a SG. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not that can have a huge affect. In Gil's case, while he can thrive being guarded as a PG by another PG, he has shown no ability to thrive will being guarded by the bigger SG of the league.

As for Gil's poor per in Orlando, in Washington, Gil had the ability to shoot his way out of a funk. In Orlando, at the first sign of trouble, SVG benches Gil. Sure Gil is still capable of putting up a decent per, but there has been no evidence that he can do it as anything other than a PG. While Gil started off getting minutes at SG in Orlando, SVG basically never gives him anymore minutes as a SG, because he has basically reached the same conclusion I have just pointed out.

[leswizards]

This has been a lose, lose trade. Neither team really won. This trade has been the basketball version of purgatory.

The Wizards' record has slightly improved since the trade. Nick Young has gone from being a question mark to being the starting SG of the future for the Wizards (hopefully that is a good thing but it could turn around to bite the Wizards in the gluteus maximus). And, the Wizards shave at least $20 milion off their payroll at the end of Gil's contract.

The returns are nothing spectacular, but I am having a hard time seeing how the Wizards lost in this deal.

[nate33]

This has been a lose, lose trade. Neither team really won. This trade has been the basketball version of purgatory.

The Wizards' record has slightly improved since the trade. Nick Young has gone from being a question mark to being the starting SG of the future for the Wizards (hopefully that is a good thing but it could turn around to bite the Wizards in the gluteus maximus). And, the Wizards shave at least $20 milion off their payroll at the end of Gil's contract.

The returns are nothing spectacular, but I am having a hard time seeing how the Wizards lost in this deal.

Exactly. The trade wasn't a coup that both teams will trumpet for eternity, but Washington is certainly happy that they made the deal. That makes it a "win" for them.

Lewis is playing better than Arenas did. He plays a position of need, and fills our void at SF next year to buy us time to address other positions. He opened up more minutes for Wall and Young to thrive. He's less of a locker room distraction. And the big deal is that he saves us tons of 2013 money and anywhere between $4M and $10M in 2012.

By the way, Lewis' on/off differential in Washington is +3.47 according to basketballvalue. Arenas' on/off differential was -2.84.

And I'm not worried about Lewis' knee. It sounds like he just needs a scope. Guys heal from that in 3 weeks.

[Dat2U]

This has been a lose, lose trade. Neither team really won. This trade has been the basketball version of purgatory.

The Wizards' record has slightly improved since the trade. Nick Young has gone from being a question mark to being the starting SG of the future for the Wizards (hopefully that is a good thing but it could turn around to bite the Wizards in the gluteus maximus). And, the Wizards shave at least $20 milion off their payroll at the end of Gil's contract.

The returns are nothing spectacular, but I am having a hard time seeing how the Wizards lost in this deal.

The improvement has been negligible. If it wasn't for the Cavs currently playing like one of the worst basketball teams in history of professional sports, we'd still be winless on the road.

As for Nick Young being the starting SG of the future. That's up for debate. I'm very weary of this breakout season being fools gold and him getting a long term contract in return coming back to bite us in the ass. Right now Young is a starting SG for a terrible team. Could he be a worthy starting SG for a contender? I have my doubts.

The only legitimate benefit I can on for certain is the salary savings in 2013. I'm happy about that aspect but sorry if I'm not praising Ernie for making a fantastic deal. Because he shares as much responsibility as Gil does for creating this entire situation in the first place.

[leswizards]

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Rashard-Lewis-has-nice-things-to-say-about-Orlan?urn=nba-322214

Should this be the last clue we have that tells us that it's finally time to stop hoping that Gilbert Arenas puts it all together? Most fans were hoping for a return to form in Orlando, playing in Penny Hardaway's shoes, fitting in on team where he wouldn't be counted on to lead. And yet, somehow, he's gotten worse.

And, sadly, one gets the feeling that this could still get even worse.

[AceDegenerate]

You guys just won't let it die. Gil is still 29 years old, are we going to keep doing this until he retires? Wtf.

If you cannot simply appreciate what he gave this franchise during the good times and move on, then you never deserved to watch him in the first place. This franchise has a long history of exiling former greats not named Unseld, and as such there is no surprise that players are not lining up to sign here.

[willbcocks]

Some of what Gil's saying in other contexts might be a bit out there (the knee and warm weather comment for instance), but the article Dweyer cites does nothing like paint a stark contrast between Lewis the consummate pro and Gil the grumbler. Both guys give fine interviews, I'm not sure what he's on about.

[JonathanJoseph]

Adding to my train of thought that Arenas problems are more mental than physical, before a 5-7 shooting performance in his last game, Gilbert Arenas was 1 for his previous 29 3pt attempts and 3 of his last 38 attempts.

Wow.