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Rui Hachimura 2.0

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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#961 » by payitforward » Fri Apr 28, 2023 12:27 am

prime1time wrote:For a role player making 6 million dollars Hachimura's past two games have been par for the course. The Lakers don't need to Hachimura to have amazing games every night to win. He's not one of their supermax players. And yes Hachimura deserves to be on the court, because after AD and LBJ, no Laker has played better during the series. BPM of 5.7. DBPM of 1.5 (even though he doesn't play defense). 4 out of the 5 games this series Rui has been over 50% from the field. In the one game he was 2/9 he had a plus/minus of +18.

Players don't have to have a good game every outing. No one does. If the Lakers win the series, Rui will definitely have been part of the reason why.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#962 » by nate33 » Fri Apr 28, 2023 1:36 pm

prime1time wrote:For a role player making 6 million dollars Hachimura's past two games have been par for the course. The Lakers don't need to Hachimura to have amazing games every night to win. He's not one of their supermax players. And yes Hachimura deserves to be on the court, because after AD and LBJ, no Laker has played better during the series. BPM of 5.7. DBPM of 1.5 (even though he doesn't play defense). 4 out of the 5 games this series Rui has been over 50% from the field. In the one game he was 2/9 he had a plus/minus of +18.

Over the entire season, Rui has probably been a little better than "par for the course" for a role player making $6M. His play is probably worth somewhere near MLE money. What always concerned me is that the market tends to overrate points per minute while underrating rebounds, assists, steals and blocks and good overall help defense. Generally speaking, Rui is quite good by the points per minute metric while somewhat below average for his position at most of those other metrics. With that in mind, I anticipate the market to overpay Rui on his next contract and give him something in the neighborhood of $15-20M when I really think he is worth $10-12M.

Basically, Rui has value on his current contract, but is likely to be a negative value on his next contract. That's why I agreed with the decision to trade him for picks now.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#963 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:38 pm

If only Rui contributed in other ways, like, Brandon Clarke.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#964 » by Endless Loop » Fri Apr 28, 2023 9:57 pm

nate33 wrote:
prime1time wrote:For a role player making 6 million dollars Hachimura's past two games have been par for the course. The Lakers don't need to Hachimura to have amazing games every night to win. He's not one of their supermax players. And yes Hachimura deserves to be on the court, because after AD and LBJ, no Laker has played better during the series. BPM of 5.7. DBPM of 1.5 (even though he doesn't play defense). 4 out of the 5 games this series Rui has been over 50% from the field. In the one game he was 2/9 he had a plus/minus of +18.

Over the entire season, Rui has probably been a little better than "par for the course" for a role player making $6M. His play is probably worth somewhere near MLE money. What always concerned me is that the market tends to overrate points per minute while underrating rebounds, assists, steals and blocks and good overall help defense. Generally speaking, Rui is quite good by the points per minute metric while somewhat below average for his position at most of those other metrics. With that in mind, I anticipate the market to overpay Rui on his next contract and give him something in the neighborhood of $15-20M when I really think he is worth $10-12M.

Basically, Rui has value on his current contract, but is likely to be a negative value on his next contract. That's why I agreed with the decision to trade him for picks now.


This is all true, but for sure owners also take into account the off-the-court cash value (marketing) of players. In the case of Rui, that number is far above the average player's. The cynic in me says that this is one of the real reasons why Ted acted so out of character in getting rid of Tommy. Trading Rui cost Monumental real money, for multiple years, and all he got back were a couple of two's and a player the team won't keep. It was a really bad trade financially. And to top it off, Playoff Rui looks good.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#965 » by prime1time » Sat Apr 29, 2023 4:53 am

nate33 wrote:
prime1time wrote:For a role player making 6 million dollars Hachimura's past two games have been par for the course. The Lakers don't need to Hachimura to have amazing games every night to win. He's not one of their supermax players. And yes Hachimura deserves to be on the court, because after AD and LBJ, no Laker has played better during the series. BPM of 5.7. DBPM of 1.5 (even though he doesn't play defense). 4 out of the 5 games this series Rui has been over 50% from the field. In the one game he was 2/9 he had a plus/minus of +18.

Over the entire season, Rui has probably been a little better than "par for the course" for a role player making $6M. His play is probably worth somewhere near MLE money. What always concerned me is that the market tends to overrate points per minute while underrating rebounds, assists, steals and blocks and good overall help defense. Generally speaking, Rui is quite good by the points per minute metric while somewhat below average for his position at most of those other metrics. With that in mind, I anticipate the market to overpay Rui on his next contract and give him something in the neighborhood of $15-20M when I really think he is worth $10-12M.

Basically, Rui has value on his current contract, but is likely to be a negative value on his next contract. That's why I agreed with the decision to trade him for picks now.

Please explain to me why paying a player +/- 3 million dollars impacts the ability to build a championship contender? I think the whole analysis is flawed. Because fundamentally, it centers something other than winning as the ultimate goal of building a team. The Wizards would have been mediocre with Hachimura at 10 million, we would have been mediocre with Hachimura at 12 million, we would have been mediocre with Hachimura at 15 million and we would have been mediocre with Hachimura at 20 million.

Are there specific instances when not slightly overpaying a player matters? Yes. But it is given way too much value on this board because it only has a limited impact on winning. You would need a very specific instance where overpaying one role player leads to a scenario where a key/important/star player couldn't be signed/resigned because of it. For example, when KD was a free agent for the first time and went to Golden State, the Wizards ended up signing Ian Mahimi to a 4 year 64 million dollar deal. If the Wizards signed Mahimi for 8 million a year, would we then beat the Warriors? If we signed Mahimi to 1 million a year would we beat the Kyrie/LBJ Cavs?

You want to know how the concept of value really works? Sign a super star in a league that arbitarily caps the maximum value of yearly contracts. The surplus value that that player produces will far outweigh any miniscule impact that paying Hachimura 15 million vs. 12 million would have. The only way it would have a major impact would be if the owner is a cheapskate. And then that team would have larger issues anyway.

Lastly, what should the Wizards pay Kuzma this offseason? What is his "fair" value?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#966 » by payitforward » Sat Apr 29, 2023 9:56 pm

1. The Wizards should pay Kuzma nothing. He should not be re-signed. Get what we can for him. But, under no circumstances sign him to a new contract.

2. In a league with a cap & a luxury tax, if you over-pay a player you have less $$ to spend on other players. That's significant. It doesn't have to be a "key/important/star player" that you miss out on.

3. More generally, what is the point you are trying to make? If it makes no difference whether you over pay one player, then what about two? Is that also ok? How about three?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#967 » by gesa2 » Sun Apr 30, 2023 1:12 pm

Primetime your point about undervalued max players being the most important building block is the most important one you made. Find a contender without one! Maybe Cleveland I guess.
Overplaying 1 or 2 or 3 lesser players limits your ability as a noncontending team to accumulate assets. Look at Oklahoma City. They’ve been taking bad contracts into space and rehabilitating them for the last few years and using that to accumulate assets - spins of the talent wheel. If you’re capped out on mediocre players you can’t do that. Also any player you sign to a negative contract is also not a tradable asset w/o adding value, limiting your flexibility.
Making extreme statements like "only" sounds like there are "no" Jokics in this draft? Jokic is an engine that was drafted in the 2nd round. Always a chance to see diamond dropped by sloppy burgular after a theft.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#968 » by doclinkin » Sun Apr 30, 2023 3:07 pm

Where I will take my lumps and agree with prime is in saying the franchise failed with respect to Rui. Here we had a highly talented player who clearly has the talent to play the game, and we squandered that asset.

I've been a critic of Rui since about halfway through his Wizards tenure, largely because of the significant gap between his abilities and his skills. I didn't hate the trade because Rui asked for it, and we were going to lose him for nothing in the offseason. I thought we should only trade him IF we could get good value back for him, but I think his prolonged absence from the team last year drained value from any possible trades.

Barring that I felt like it would be better to sign him to his next contract at a lesser value and actually develop his skill and ability. If Rui were playing for Miami he'd be better. Okay he might implode under pressure from Jimmy Buckets, but then he might not, by having a role model to pattern his game after AT BOTH ENDS. Rui does not intuitively understand how to play team defense. But team defense is one of the skills that is best built with experience. Especially high level experience in post season games. WIth teammates who do know how to play it and encourage it from you. Team. Work.

Rui learned to play basketball by watching Olympic Carmelo tapes. My sense is that he is a visual learner. He wants to please, wants to live up to the expectations, but literally does not know how to add value on court except by individual scoring. I got the sense that he was both motivated by Westbrook and daunted by the additional weight that Russ puts on everybody to live up to his standard: give 100% effort, put maximum pressure on the opponent. But Russ can't exemplify how to do it as a Big. And his defense won't be what gets him into the hall of fame. Rui needs to see how it is done. He needs to see that standard set for him.

The team lacked a vet who could show him the ropes, or failing that to invest in the player year round. Send him to camp for learning to rebound, box out, use his inherent strength advantage. He should not have been spending his summers solely at Big Guard camp learning to break his man down when he has the ball. He needs to learn a low post move, foot work in the paint, but more so, how to get open, how to get teammates open, screening off the ball. Setting nasty picks. Using his size and remarkable power-to-mass ratio. ANYthing that would add value to a team beyond spotting up on the outside waiting for the ball to arrive. Something more than individual drills of one-v-one scoring.

The team wasted his value. Failed to develop him. I've said I expect if Rui earns his contract it will be later in his career, especially if we could've extended him with suppressed value, then teach him into his skills. Not to be machiavellian but the time to negotiate an extension really would have been when he was returning from his stress layoff. To say: look, take your time, we are here for you long term. Your value to us is not dependent on immediate on court results, but in you becoming healthy and growing into your abilities. Play the long game.

I think the G-League system fails teams a bit in that players there do only play for a couple years, while skipping teams and looking for better opportunities to showcase their personal talents. It does not drill fundamentals. It is difficult to input a system, and help young players grow. This team in particular has never had a proper culture to grow players. San Antonio. Miami. Steve Kerr's Warriors. Brad Steven's Celtics. Granted players we have had rarely go on to develop complete games elsewhere. (JaVale got a ring, but has also bounced around from team to team). Still, maybe that is because we failed to give them a base of skills to build on.

In any case, whether as a lottery pick or a player or a trade asset we did not get the best value out of our opportunities in regard to Rui. That is not on Rui. It is on the team. If Ted fired Tommy in part because of that, it has less to do with Rui and more to do with every Rui we have had before him and any we get in the future. The next GM should have a sense of how to construct that culture, whether through drafting players who understand the game AND have the talent and fire to perform. Or in the, staff, vision, understanding of how to win, sense of purpose. Give me somebody who has seen their team win a championship. Build a championship culture. Expect championship level effort. Set that as the goal. I think Hachimura was failed in part because the culture around here was satisfied with good enough. For a player with his innate talents, he needed motivations and shaping to understand that good enough is never enough. There is more and better you should ask of yourself. Rui has the talent to reach it. Its is up to the organization to demand it of him and help him get there.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#969 » by payitforward » Tue May 2, 2023 12:20 am

I can't see it, doc. I don't believe the team didn't put in effort.
Tommy just lost his job, because of data points like the fact that Rui didn't develop. The motivation was certainly there!

Basketball is a game of skill, & over 4 years Rui has shown that he is lacking in feel for the game itself in a whole lot of areas. Maybe another way to put it is that the advantages that Rui has -- great size & outstanding athleticism & big mitts & so forth -- are not the same as "talent." Or maybe "talent" on its own isn't enough.

Nor am I criticizing Rui -- not at all! At least I don't mean to. Every person is different. It's certainly possible that Rui will still be able to learn the things he needs to learn. It's not something I can pronounce about negatively -- nor would I want to do that: why?

OTOH, if the Lakers are able to provide what Rui needs to make sustainable jumps in productivity -- great! But, I still can't see a reason to believe that Rui wasn't guided & coached over an almost 4 year period as a Washington Wizard. His failure as a Wizard is, as must be obvious, a big failure for the team.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#970 » by Endless Loop » Tue May 2, 2023 12:56 pm

payitforward wrote:I can't see it, doc. I don't believe the team didn't put in effort.
Tommy just lost his job, because of data points like the fact that Rui didn't develop. The motivation was certainly there!


I think you mean "incentive", not "motivation". Sometimes people aren't motivated by incentives.

Anyway, whether or not Tommy was motivated to develop Rui's game better doesn't matter. What does seem to matter is that the Wiz failed. Who cares if it's because Tommy was incapable or because Tommy didn't care? What Ted should really care about is to really know who was responsible- was it really Tommy? If he can't figure that out, then his system is busted because there should be clear lines of responsibility and accountability in any organization.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#971 » by dobrojim » Tue May 2, 2023 3:11 pm

Endless Loop wrote:
payitforward wrote:I can't see it, doc. I don't believe the team didn't put in effort.
Tommy just lost his job, because of data points like the fact that Rui didn't develop. The motivation was certainly there!


I think you mean "incentive", not "motivation". Sometimes people aren't motivated by incentives.

Anyway, whether or not Tommy was motivated to develop Rui's game better doesn't matter. What does seem to matter is that the Wiz failed. Who cares if it's because Tommy was incapable or because Tommy didn't care? What Ted should really care about is to really know who was responsible- was it really Tommy? If he can't figure that out, then his system is busted because there should be clear lines of responsibility and accountability in any organization.



Interesting video that blows up a number of widely held beliefs. No direct hoop content.
Or maybe there is.

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Those who are convinced of absurdities, can be convinced to commit atrocities
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#972 » by tleikheen » Tue May 2, 2023 9:30 pm

In 11 playoff games Rui is shooting 59 FG /percent (62-105) and 3pt 55.6/percent (20-36) while playing in the most intense part of the games.
In the playoffs you see who steps up and raises their level of play when its win or go home . Wizards traded away the one and only guy they had on their roster who has done and doing that.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#973 » by gesa2 » Wed May 3, 2023 11:17 pm

tleikheen wrote:In 11 playoff games Rui is shooting 59 FG /percent (62-105) and 3pt 55.6/percent (20-36) while playing in the most intense part of the games.
In the playoffs you see who steps up and raises their level of play when its win or go home . Wizards traded away the one and only guy they had on their roster who has done and doing that.

Props to your strong belief in Rui, and kudos to him for his success so far. But this is still small sample size theater. What’s the data for how many 3s someone has to take before it is useful to predict the future? It’s at least 2 or 3 hundred.
Making extreme statements like "only" sounds like there are "no" Jokics in this draft? Jokic is an engine that was drafted in the 2nd round. Always a chance to see diamond dropped by sloppy burgular after a theft.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#974 » by dobrojim » Thu May 4, 2023 2:47 pm

Seems to me Rui has shown considerable ability to shoot 3s. The criticisms of his game lie elsewhere.
A lot of what we call 'thought' is just mental activity

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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#975 » by payitforward » Thu May 4, 2023 4:41 pm

Endless Loop wrote:
payitforward wrote:I can't see it, doc. I don't believe the team didn't put in effort.
Tommy just lost his job, because of data points like the fact that Rui didn't develop. The motivation was certainly there!

I think you mean "incentive", not "motivation". Sometimes people aren't motivated by incentives. ...

I think I just meant "reasons" -- Tommy had plenty of reasons to want Rui to develop.

Endless Loop wrote:Anyway, whether or not Tommy was motivated to develop Rui's game better doesn't matter. What does seem to matter is that the Wiz failed. Who cares if it's because Tommy was incapable or because Tommy didn't care? What Ted should really care about is to really know who was responsible- was it really Tommy? If he can't figure that out, then his system is busted because there should be clear lines of responsibility and accountability in any organization.

First off, it'd be up to the coaching staff to work with Rui -- not Tommy!
Thus, for your point to float, there have to have been two different uninterested coaching staffs.

Plus, you write as if Rui had no responsibility for his own development. I don't buy that.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#976 » by payitforward » Thu May 4, 2023 4:45 pm

dobrojim wrote:Seems to me Rui has shown considerable ability to shoot 3s. The criticisms of his game lie elsewhere.

Rui had one good season shooting the 3. This year, he was at .347 -- .296 since going to the Lakers, btw.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#977 » by gesa2 » Thu May 4, 2023 4:46 pm

His career 3point % on basketball reference is .347
This year including time with us and the Lakers it’s .319
Making extreme statements like "only" sounds like there are "no" Jokics in this draft? Jokic is an engine that was drafted in the 2nd round. Always a chance to see diamond dropped by sloppy burgular after a theft.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#978 » by payitforward » Thu May 4, 2023 5:04 pm

Good for Rui for playing so well vs. the Grizzlies. & for going 2-2 from the floor & 2-2 from the line in his 11 minutes vs the Warriors. I hope he plays great wherever he winds up playing next season.

Maybe at that point -- or maybe even sooner? -- the mods can lock this thread, & people who want to follow Rui Hachimura's career can do it in the ex-Wizards thread?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#979 » by payitforward » Thu May 4, 2023 5:43 pm

gesa2 wrote:His career 3point % on basketball reference is .347
This year including time with us and the Lakers it’s .319

Yes. & that is .347 on fewer than 3.6 attempts per 40 minutes over his career. Obviously, that's not very good.

But, then, Rui just wasn't very good in his 3912 minutes as a Wizard -- tho, of course, he had some good games.

OTOH, he was somewhat better in his regular season minutes as a Laker. But not in scoring. In his regular season minutes as a Laker, his usage went down, & as you'd expect he scored fewer points per 40 minutes than he had posted with us earlier in the season. Unfortunately, his TS% also went down a little in LA -- despite the drop in usage.

Still, his regular season minutes as a Laker were better overall than the earlier part of the season with us. That's b/c his offensive rebounds went up while his turnovers went down.

Now, keep in mind that "better" is not the same as "good." Despite the overall improvement, Rui's regular season numbers as a Laker weren't particularly good overall.

OTOH, Rui played extremely well in the Lakers' first round series against Memphis! & he also had a good 11-minute outing in their first game vs. Golden State.

Here's hoping we see lots more of that!
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Re: Rui Hachimura 2.0 

Post#980 » by deneem4 » Fri May 5, 2023 2:32 am

Seems like the lakers are playing rui, pretty much exactly how I said we should
Pay your beals....or its lights out!!!
Bron, Bosh, Wade is like Mike, Hakeem, barkley...3 top 5 picks from same draft
mike, hakeem and Barkley on the same team!!!!

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