2024 Draft Thread - Part II

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Doc, we know Risacher is one of your guys in the draft, do you have any top end outcome comparisons for Risacher? Or do you think his top end outcome is the MPJ/Otto/Cam Johnson comparisons? I simply have not seen any all star level NBA comparisons even mentioned for Risacher.

Is that worth the 2nd overall pick in your mind?

Here's a nice scouting report on Risacher.

Watch on YouTube

[prime1time]

The big question on MPJ coming in (and pretty much since) was his health. Risacher doesn't have that question mark yet.

Sure. I don't have a problem with characterizing Risacher as a "healthier MPJ". That certainly sounds like a useful NBA player. But still more of a role player and not they type of guy you hope to get at #2.

Is there a star in this draft?

[Dat2U]

The big question on MPJ coming in (and pretty much since) was his health. Risacher doesn't have that question mark yet.

Sure. I don't have a problem with characterizing Risacher as a "healthier MPJ". That certainly sounds like a useful NBA player. But still more of a role player and not they type of guy you hope to get at #2.

Is there a star in this draft?

A healthy MPJ was an elite level prospect and special athlete. Injuries have reduced him to being a role player. Risacher is not on MPJ's pre-injury level.

[Dat2U]

I like Buzelis alot more than Risacher. There's playmaking potential, elite athletic ability, potential to play the 4 in the NBA, and shot creation potential. Buzelis compares to guys like Franz Wagner/Gordon Hayward/Deni IMO.

I'm not team Risacher but what does Buzelis actually do at a high level? The handle isn't really tight, he can't get past anyone. The shot looks decent but he doesn't make 'em yet. He seems to have a bit of tunnel vision and doesn't see the floor well so the Hayward/Deni comparisons don't fit. Like a few other prospects, everything seems theoretical with him. His best skill to me is as a weak side shotblocker which bodes well for his ability to defend the interior in time as he gets stronger. His defense is ahead of his offense and he's no stopper. He's a long way from being a useful NBA player though and more a a mid-1st round pick than a early one.

[Dat2U]

The best shot creator in the draft is Rob Dillingham but no one seems to care because he's too small like Trae Young (164 lbs) and Ja Morant (174 lbs) and the idea of a PG that's a better scorer than defender repulses the Stephon Castle supporters.

[Dat2U]

Its so wild to me Castle shot around 30% on 3s on 11 attempts per game his senior yr in HS only to abandon them and be so hesitant to shoot them in college. Never seen such a variance before. From confidently pulling up and taking contested looks in HS to being completely left alone in college.

[prime1time]

If anyone has read Malcolm Gladwell's "Blink" you'll know that it doesn't insights gained in a snapshot have a way of being very accurate. You don't need hours and hours of Risacher tape to understand the type of player that he is. We should point out that he's one of the most scouted players in the draft lol. Regardless, here's 2 hours of him. I don't think it'll change your opinion either way. He's not a highlight player.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=HardwoodHoopsCentral%27sNBADraftGreenRoom

[prime1time]

Its so wild to me Castle shot around 30% on 3s on 11 attempts per game his senior yr in HS only to abandon them and be so hesitant to shoot them in college. Never seen such a variance before. From confidently pulling up and taking contested looks in HS to being completely left alone in college.

It's not that wild once you understand that UConn was trying to win games. When a team has nothing to play for anything goes. But when a teams is playing to win, players have to accept roles. This is is one of the reasons why the Wizards routinely suck even when they head talent. Because good teams require more than talent. It requires players to accept their role, buy-in and perform that role to the best of their ability. Castle bought in for the betterment of the "team." This should also tell you that regardless what Castle says, deep down he knows that he's not a good shooter.

[NatP4]

I'm not team Risacher but what does Buzelis actually do at a high level? The handle isn't really tight, he can't get past anyone. The shot looks decent but he doesn't make 'em yet. He seems to have a bit of tunnel vision and doesn't see the floor well so the Hayward/Deni comparisons don't fit. Like a few other prospects, everything seems theoretical with him. His best skill to me is as a weak side shotblocker which bodes well for his ability to defend the interior in time as he gets stronger. His defense is ahead of his offense and he's no stopper. He's a long way from being a useful NBA player though and more a a mid-1st round pick than a early one.

Right now, he’s very unpolished, but 3-4 years from now, I still like the potential.

7.7 rebounds 2.3 blocks, 1.0 steals 2.3 assists as a 19 year old against pros. In his last 20 games he averaged 17 points on 57% TS. The athleticism and shot creation/playmaking will really pop as a full time 4 in the NBA, as opposed to forcing it as a shot creating wing on a team with no spacing or structure.

Hard to be overly concerned about the shooting numbers when almost all Ignite prospects have struggled over the years. Buzelis shot 45% from 3 in high school.

[nate33]

The best shot creator in the draft is Rob Dillingham but no one seems to care because he's too small like Trae Young (164 lbs) and Ja Morant (174 lbs) and the idea of a PG that's a better scorer than defender repulses the Stephon Castle supporters.

The Trae Young example is exactly why I don't want Dillingham. Young puts up spectacular numbers and made the All-Star game in 3 of his last 5 seasons, but he gives up on defense as much as he provides on offense. Here are Atlanta's win totals in his 6 NBA seasons:

29
24*
47*
43
41
36

He has won only two playoff series (both in the same season during their improbable 2021 ECF run). The first playoff series win, they beat a horrible NY team who started the shell of Derrick Rose, Reggie Bullock, 20-year-old RJ Barrett, Randle, and Taj Gibson. There one reasonably impressive playoff win was beating Philly in the year that Simmons imploded.

What I find problematic about Trae is that, after some early success, they've been totally unable to build a winning team around him. Even when they add more talent, he is a gaping hole in the defense. And you can't really offset that liability with more offense because any additional offensive players merely take the ball out of Trae's hands so there's no cumulative benefit.

I just think that type of player puts a ceiling on how good you can be. Yeah, he'll raise the floor quickly (perhaps too quickly), but so what? He condemns your team to a ceiling of 47-win No Man's Land.

*projected over 82 games

[nate33]

I'm not team Risacher but what does Buzelis actually do at a high level? The handle isn't really tight, he can't get past anyone. The shot looks decent but he doesn't make 'em yet. He seems to have a bit of tunnel vision and doesn't see the floor well so the Hayward/Deni comparisons don't fit. Like a few other prospects, everything seems theoretical with him. His best skill to me is as a weak side shotblocker which bodes well for his ability to defend the interior in time as he gets stronger. His defense is ahead of his offense and he's no stopper. He's a long way from being a useful NBA player though and more a a mid-1st round pick than a early one.

Right now, he’s very unpolished, but 3-4 years from now, I still like the potential.

7.7 rebounds 2.3 blocks, 1.0 steals 2.3 assists as a 19 year old against pros. In his last 20 games he averaged 17 points on 57% TS. The athleticism and shot creation/playmaking will really pop as a full time 4 in the NBA, as opposed to forcing it as a shot creating wing on a team with no spacing or structure.

Hard to be overly concerned about the shooting numbers when almost all Ignite prospects have struggled over the years. Buzelis shot 45% from 3 in high school.

I think this is a good point, but it's also why I rank Holland above Buzelis. Holland has the same shooting concerns, but scores more on better efficiency and more FT attempts, is roughly equivalent across the rest of the box score, yet is almost a full year younger.

Both guys look like they can be above-average starting combo forwards and plus defenders if they become better shooters. I think the advantage Holland has over Buzelis is that he can probably still be a halfway decent player even if the shot doesn't come around because of his slashing ability. Buzelis is an offensive liability until his shot starts dropping.

On the other hand, I think Buzelis' shooting form looks better than Holland and I give him better odds of becoming a good shooter.

[DCZards]

The best shot creator in the draft is Rob Dillingham but no one seems to care because he's too small like Trae Young (164 lbs) and Ja Morant (174 lbs) and the idea of a PG that's a better scorer than defender repulses the Stephon Castle supporters.

I’m a Castle supporter and I’m not at all repulsed by Dillingham. He’s still in my top 5. I do worry about Dilly’s size but his shot making is beyond impressive and I believe that aspect of his game will carry over into the NBA.

I still think you’re way off base regarding Castle’s “hesitance” to shoot 3s at UConn. He had several teammates at UConn that were better shooters and he understood that shooting 3s was not his role—or strength. I give Castle a ton of credit for that, especially given that he did take a lot more 3s in HS.

Castle’s priority is winning and playing the game the right way, which is one of the things I love about him.

[prime1time]

Wagner is actually a very good example of the problem posed by drafting this kind of player. 3 years into his career and he just shot 28% from 3. And in the playoffs he shot 26.5% from 3. But this analysis goes both ways. It's why you need to have long athletic wings like a Coulibaly so that in the playoffs you can make average 3-point shooters uncomfortable while helping onto elite players. Good defenses make teams pay for putting shooters like Wagner on the floor. In the regular season what might be a wide open 3, is now contested. There are only a handful of players that are both elite shooters, athletic and long. Most teams have to compromise somewhere.

Ironically two of the better players are Barnes and MPJr. And both of won championships. Barnes is a a career 37.9% 3-point shooter. And for the last 8 seasons he's been closer to 39% from 3. In 2020-2021 Barnes put fg%/3p%/ft% splits of 49.7/39.1/83 averaging 16.1 ppg, 6.6 rbs, 3.5 assists. Also weird is the denigrating of MPJ. For his career MPJ is shooting 41% from 3 on 5.9 3's a game. And his last 3 full seasons he's averaged 19, 17 and 16 ppg.

[machu46]

One thing I noticed watching Buzelis...no idea if the numbers bear it out or not, but it feels like the ball comes out of his hand very strangely on a lot of his layups as if it's just slipping out of his hands in the general direction of the hoop. There's just something that feels off while watching him. But getting past that, there are some pretty strong reasons to like him.

I think I'm probably between Risacher, Holland, and Sheppard for the #2 pick personally, but I don't feel super strong about any of them.

[closg00]

The best shot creator in the draft is Rob Dillingham but no one seems to care because he's too small like Trae Young (164 lbs) and Ja Morant (174 lbs) and the idea of a PG that's a better scorer than defender repulses the Stephon Castle supporters.

The Trae Young example is exactly why I don't want Dillingham. Young puts up spectacular numbers and made the All-Star game in 3 of his last 5 seasons, but he gives up on defense as much as he provides on offense. Here are Atlanta's win totals in his 6 NBA seasons:

29
24*
47*
43
41
36

He has won only two playoff series (both in the same season during their improbable 2021 ECF run). The first playoff series win, they beat a horrible NY team who started the shell of Derrick Rose, Reggie Bullock, 20-year-old RJ Barrett, Randle, and Taj Gibson. There one reasonably impressive playoff win was beating Philly in the year that Simmons imploded.

What I find problematic about Trae is that, after some early success, they've been totally unable to build a winning team around him. Even when they add more talent, he is a gaping hole in the defense. And you can't really offset that liability with more offense because any additional offensive players merely take the ball out of Trae's hands so there's no cumulative benefit.

I just think that type of player puts a ceiling on how good you can be. Yeah, he'll raise the floor quickly (perhaps too quickly), but so what? He condemns your team to a ceiling of 47-win No Man's Land.

*projected over 82 games

It's a little unfair to saddle Trae with the Hawks W/L record considering he was joining a rebuilding team, what was the best team ATL constructed around Trae, he never had a Big-3.
While Trae would still be woeful on D, you sorround him with significantly better talent/coaching and we may well be having a completely different conversation.

[nate33]

Ironically two of the better players are Barnes and MPJr. And both of won championships. Barnes is a a career 37.9% 3-point shooter. And for the last 8 seasons he's been closer to 39% from 3. In 2020-2021 Barnes put fg%/3p%/ft% splits of 49.7/39.1/83 averaging 16.1 ppg, 6.6 rbs, 3.5 assists. Also weird is the denigrating of MPJ. For his career MPJ is shooting 41% from 3 on 5.9 3's a game. And his last 3 full seasons he's averaged 19, 17 and 16 ppg.

Nobody is denigrating Barnes or MPJ. The issue is that Barnes was the 6th best player on his championship Warriors, and MPJ was the 4th best player on his championship Nuggets. I don't dispute that Risacher has the capability of being the 4th or 5th best guy on a championship team. My issue is that I don't really see a lot of potential for him to be better than that.

If possible, I'd like to find a guy with the #2 pick who has at least a theoretical upside to be a 2nd or 3rd best player on a championship roster. Maybe that's impossible in this draft. I dunno. But I don't think Risacher has that potential because he can't really create off the bounce, nor is he an elite defender.

[NatP4]

I think this is a good point, but it's also why I rank Holland above Buzelis. Holland has the same shooting concerns, but scores more on better efficiency and more FT attempts, is roughly equivalent across the rest of the box score, yet is almost a full year younger.

Both guys look like they can be above-average starting combo forwards and plus defenders if they become better shooters. I think the advantage Holland has over Buzelis is that he can probably still be a halfway decent player even if the shot doesn't come around because of his slashing ability. Buzelis is an offensive liability until his shot starts dropping.

On the other hand, I think Buzelis' shooting form looks better than Holland and I give him better odds of becoming a good shooter.

There is a major difference between the two on the defensive end. The 1:56:00 mark of this video paints the picture:

Watch on YouTube

[nate33]

Wagner is actually a very good example of the problem posed by drafting this kind of player. 3 years into his career and he just shot 28% from 3. And in the playoffs he shot 26.5% from 3. But this analysis goes both ways. It's why you need to have long athletic wings like a Coulibaly so that in the playoffs you can make average 3-point shooters uncomfortable while helping onto elite players. Good defenses make teams pay for putting shooters like Wagner on the floor. In the regular season what might be a wide open 3, is now contested. There are only a handful of players that are both elite shooters, athletic and long. Most teams have to compromise somewhere.

Yeah, but Wagner is still only 22. I think the chances that he gets better as a shooter and adds that to his already well-rounded game are still pretty high. And a well-rounded do-everything two-way 6-10 combo forward can be the 2nd or 3rd best guy on a championship team if he can get his 3-ball up to 36% or so. And let's not overlook that Wagner shot 36% last year. This season could be an aberration.

[nate33]

I think this is a good point, but it's also why I rank Holland above Buzelis. Holland has the same shooting concerns, but scores more on better efficiency and more FT attempts, is roughly equivalent across the rest of the box score, yet is almost a full year younger.

Both guys look like they can be above-average starting combo forwards and plus defenders if they become better shooters. I think the advantage Holland has over Buzelis is that he can probably still be a halfway decent player even if the shot doesn't come around because of his slashing ability. Buzelis is an offensive liability until his shot starts dropping.

On the other hand, I think Buzelis' shooting form looks better than Holland and I give him better odds of becoming a good shooter.

There is a major difference between the two on the defensive end. The 1:56:00 mark of this video paints the picture:

Watch on YouTube

I'm not sure what you were trying to point out. I just see a string of consecutive steals by Holland, though some were rather opportunistic where Holland just picked up a fumbled dribble.

[NatP4]

From 1:56:00 -end of the video shows Holland being an absolute disaster on the defensive end.