Long Term Plan? (merged threads)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think that's easily explained by the fact that they were on the court most -- mostly with a some trio of miscast players who weren't very good. If we had Arenas and Haywood all year (or even a healthy AD and a consistent backup C), Butler and Jamison wouldn't be on that list

fish, what I notice is every pair on the worst list is wretched either defensively, offensively, or both.

[TheSecretWeapon]

The player pair data at 82games hasn't been updated since 3/28. Not that things will change much, but I'll be interested to see the final data for the season. As for Jamison and Butler showing up as "worst" -- 82games is giving totals. Guys who play a lot together for a bad team are going to be on that list.

The more detailed data shows the team to actually be slightly better when Jamison and Butler were on the floor together. The team was a net -7.9 pts per 48 minutes with Jamison on the floor; and a net -7.3 with Butler -- they were a net -7.3 with Butler and Jamison together. For the season (through 3/28), they were a net -7.7. Not much better, but again -- not surprising considering they'd played more than half the team's minutes together.

[nate33]

Yeah, what Kevin said.

Those on/off numbers are raw numbers, not on/off differentials. It would be frightening if the team played 7.9 points worse than normal with Butler and Jamison on the floor, but they don't. Their on/off differential is closer to 0.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

See below, nate.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hey, since I'm still hopelessly awake, solve this riddle for me guys ...

Why is Darius looking good on these player pair stats?

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809WASP.HTM

Player Pairs/Tandem statistics

Code: Select all

Player James Dixon Crittenton Stevenson Young Butler McGuire Jamison Blatche Songaila McGee
James     -8    -13   -18  -7  -7  -7  -7  -7  -9  -5  -19 
Dixon -13  -7  -1  -6  -5  -6  -12  -10  -6  +5  -14 
Crittenton -18  -1  -10  +6  -8  -11  -13  -9  -9  -4  -14 
Stevenson -7  -6  +6  -9  +1  -12  +3  -10  -3  -2  -14 
Young -7  -5  -8  +1  -5  +1  -10  -5  -3  -5  -10 
Butler -7  -6  -11  -12  +1  -7  -8  -7  -4  -1  -12 
McGuire -7  -12  -13  +3  -10  -8  -9  -9  -7  -6  -22 
Jamison -7  -10  -9  -10  -5  -7  -9  -8  -5  -1  -18 
Blatche -9  -6  -9  -3  -3  -4  -7  -5  -6  -6  -11 
Songaila -5  +5  -4  -2  -5  -1  -6  -1  -6  -3  -11 
McGee -19  -14  -14  -14  -10  -12  -22  -18  -11  -11  -14 

To me, it appears that in tandem Darius fares better with Butler and with Jamison that Jamison and Butler do with each other.

For that matter, Darius apparently plays well with everybody and McGee doesn't play well with anyone. Again, tired eyes and brain ...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Yeah, what Kevin said.

Those on/off numbers are raw numbers, not on/off differentials. It would be frightening if the team played 7.9 points worse than normal with Butler and Jamison on the floor, but they don't. Their on/off differential is closer to 0.

So, what you're saying is the Wizards were not 8 points worse. They were just statistically no better with Jamison and Butler on the court together than they were with the rest of this year's Wizards on the court.

[nate33]

Yeah, what Kevin said.

Those on/off numbers are raw numbers, not on/off differentials. It would be frightening if the team played 7.9 points worse than normal with Butler and Jamison on the floor, but they don't. Their on/off differential is closer to 0.

So, what you're saying is the Wizards were not 8 points worse. They were just statistically no better with Jamison and Butler on the court together than they were with the rest of this year's Wizards on the court.

Right.

Butler and Jamison together didn't seem to do much better than either Butler or Jamison alone (or neither Butler and Jamsion on the court). But they didn't do worse either.

And the answer to your Songaila riddle is simple. Songaila was 2nd on the team in on/off differential. He pretty much made anybody better because he helped the team when he was on the floor.

Nick Young was actually better than Songaila in this regard. Nick Young had the best on/off differential on the team.

I wouldn't spend too much time digging into that player pairs data. The sample sizes are really small for those on/off numbers to be significant. The individual stats portion of the player pairs data can be interesting if you statistically massage the stats to see how guys play alongside somebody versus when they're not playing alongside somebody. A couple years ago, I ran the numbers to investigate the "Gilbert Arenas Effect". When I get around to it, I'll run another breakdown. I'll be able to determine whether Crittenton elevates other people's games, for example.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Bottom line for me is this season's over. The stats under Flip Saunders and with Gilbert and Brendan playing will be entirely different.

For the most part this was just a bizarre year.

Could be that everybody on the team deserves a mulligan.

[dobrojim]

Yeah, what Kevin said.

Those on/off numbers are raw numbers, not on/off differentials. It would be frightening if the team played 7.9 points worse than normal with Butler and Jamison on the floor, but they don't. Their on/off differential is closer to 0.

So, what you're saying is the Wizards were not 8 points worse. They were just statistically no better with Jamison and Butler on the court together than they were with the rest of this year's Wizards on the court.

Right.

Butler and Jamison together didn't seem to do much better than either Butler or Jamison alone (or neither Butler and Jamsion on the court). But they didn't do worse either.

And the answer to your Songaila riddle is simple. Songaila was 2nd on the team in on/off differential. He pretty much made anybody better because he helped the team when he was on the floor.

Nick Young was actually better than Songaila in this regard. Nick Young had the best on/off differential on the team.

I wouldn't spend too much time digging into that player pairs data. The sample sizes are really small for those on/off numbers to be significant. The individual stats portion of the player pairs data can be interesting if you statistically massage the stats to see how guys play alongside somebody versus when they're not playing alongside somebody. A couple years ago, I ran the numbers to investigate the "Gilbert Arenas Effect". When I get around to it, I'll run another breakdown. I'll be able to determine whether Crittenton elevates other people's games, for example.

this is a stunning paradox considering the talk in the player dev thread about
how hopelessly stupid Nick is (I'm exagerating the comments). If their offensive
sets were so limited and if his Hoops-IQ is so low, is his athleticism THAT good
that he ends up with the best on/off? Why not McGee as well?

[dobrojim]

or maybe to answer my own question, was his replacement (the off time) that
horrible that in comparison, his on/off looks better?

[LyricalRico]

or maybe to answer my own question, was his replacement (the off time) that
horrible that in comparison, his on/off looks better?

Stevenson only started for 1/4 the season. Maybe McGuire isn't as good as we think he is?

[lupin]

Do we still think a healthy Wiz team is better than the teams in the SE division? Far and away better?

We've got a Hawks team that has made the playoffs 2x in a row, improved between trips and made the 2nd round (hey, the Wiz did that 5 years ago!).

We've got Orlando. Might not be tough enough or deep enough to contend for the Finals, but they still managed to win more than 50 - and are in the 2nd round.

You think the Heat are going to get worse (presuming Wade is around and healthy)?

Even Charlotte won more than 30 games this year, I think.

Somehow, I don't really think counting on the Big Three to take us to glory is a really smart plan. Hope EG has some big ideas (besides winning the Lottery).

[fishercob]

Do we still think a healthy Wiz team is better than the teams in the SE division? Far and away better?

We've got a Hawks team that has made the playoffs 2x in a row, improved between trips and made the 2nd round (hey, the Wiz did that 5 years ago!).

We've got Orlando. Might not be tough enough or deep enough to contend for the Finals, but they still managed to win more than 50 - and are in the 2nd round.

You think the Heat are going to get worse (presuming Wade is around and healthy)?

Even Charlotte won more than 30 games this year, I think.

Somehow, I don't really think counting on the Big Three to take us to glory is a really smart plan. Hope EG has some big ideas (besides winning the Lottery).

Orlando's over the cap and still has a number of holes. Atlanta's about to get real expensive with Bibby and Williams FA's this summer and Joe Johnson a FA next summer. I doubt they keep that whole team together -- especially considering their tenuous ownership situation and how poorly the fans traditionally support that team.

Miami has one player of consequence. He's one of the best in the league, but the roster without Wade (as we saw last year) is one of the worst teams in the league.

A healthy Wiz team may not dominate the division, but they can play with and beat anyone mentioned above.

[lupin]

Your argument is that none of those teams stick together (you also presumed that Beasley was nothing - "Miami has one player of consequence"). What if they do? Seems just as likely as the Big 3 being healthy for an entire season. Plus, and I suppose this is a little contrary to the name of this thread, you aren't saying any of those teams will actually be broken up THIS offseason which means in the short term they are what they are. Well, Jamison will be 33 in June. Can we really talk Long Term with the Big 3?

[pancakes3]

I think we're more talented overall than any other team in our division next season. Arenas is better than any other point guard in the division... maybe even conference. Butler wins the matchup against Hedo, Gerald Wallace, Marvin Williams, Moon/Beasley. Jamison may not be a top flight PF but there aren't really any PF in the league that could really exploit Jamison's weakness in post defense (Lewis is relegated to a jump shooter now, and Josh Smith is as unpolished on O as he was as a rookie). Haywood takes a back seat to Dwight, but not by as much popular opinion would have us believe. Haywood is one of the few centers that can SLOW DOWN d12. Besides, the 2nd best center in the SE can still average a dbl-dbl against the likes of Zaza and Okafor.

as for our biggest weakness at sg... how DMac handles opposing guards is going to be an interesting substory for next season. His size is imposing, but can he keep up with Wade and Joe Johnson? Taking on the best perimeter player on defense for 82 games... he better be getting in some cardio in between shooting all those thousands of jumpers.


i would sleep a lot easier at night if somebody would report on DMac's offeseason workouts and Gil's "recovery".

[Jajwanda]

The long term plan really depends on Gilbert Arenas. It's really a paradox trying to figure out what to do with the guy. Say the draft lottery is won by the Wizards, Griffin is selected and the Wizards now have a true top flight PF to team with Haywood making the team very good inside. What now? Butler's best position is SF no doubt about it. He's not a SG defensively and he thrives at the forward spot.

Let's your 3-5 are set.

The 1-2 are the big question. Nick Young is improving and over time hopefully he'll be a solid 2. Chances are he will be and he's inexpensive. Now onto Gilbert. His team is full of guys that have potential to score from the 2-4 and it's not bad defensively from the 2-5. It's more or less league average in that aspect. At the 1 you need to find a passing PG such as Andre Miller who can play defense but instead you have Gilbert Arenas. Maybe the answer would be to look towards a team like Philadelphia for that exact guy. Philly often runs with Igoudala leading the team and God knows that team struggles to score, maybe an Arenas for a re-signed Andre Miller trade could work.

All I know is that somehow a team with plenty of trade assets has ended up quite possibly with the #1 overall pick. Any decent GM should be able to turn this to gold pretty quickly again provided that the roster is balanced.

Who knows maybe the team goes after Kirk Hinrich to play the 1 with ball dominant Arenas as the 2. That could always work and still leave Jamison available for trade to who knows where. Perhaps Detroit or Toronto or a team of that sort could be interested or the Jazz.

Possibilities are endless.

[doclinkin]

The long term plan really depends on Gilbert Arenas. It's really a paradox trying to figure out what to do with the guy. Say the draft lottery is won by the Wizards, Griffin is selected and the Wizards now have a true top flight PF to team with Haywood making the team very good inside. What now? Butler's best position is SF no doubt about it. He's not a SG defensively and he thrives at the forward spot.

Let's your 3-5 are set.

The 1-2 are the big question. Nick Young is improving and over time hopefully he'll be a solid 2. Chances are he will be and he's inexpensive. Now onto Gilbert. His team is full of guys that have potential to score from the 2-4 and it's not bad defensively from the 2-5. It's more or less league average in that aspect. At the 1 you need to find a passing PG such as Andre Miller who can play defense but instead you have Gilbert Arenas. Maybe the answer would be to look towards a team like Philadelphia for that exact guy. Philly often runs with Igoudala leading the team and God knows that team struggles to score, maybe an Arenas for a re-signed Andre Miller trade could work.

All I know is that somehow a team with plenty of trade assets has ended up quite possibly with the #1 overall pick. Any decent GM should be able to turn this to gold pretty quickly again provided that the roster is balanced.

Who knows maybe the team goes after Kirk Hinrich to play the 1 with ball dominant Arenas as the 2. That could always work and still leave Jamison available for trade to who knows where. Perhaps Detroit or Toronto or a team of that sort could be interested or the Jazz.

Possibilities are endless.

Pretty sure the team would have no problem integrating a player who averaged ~7 assists per game even when he was scoring 29. Especially considering in his 2 game return this year he posted double figure assists with a 20-1 assist to TO ratio. He has said he wants to play as a pass-first point guard to get the youngsters up to speed, and so far so good, looks like. So that would be a 'no thanks' on the Andre Miller for Gilbert trade.

But yeah alot depends on how high that draft pick is. We should be in decent shape regardless, but the pick could be a significant difference-maker depending on where we end up. If we land Griffin well yeah that opens up some interesting possibilities. If we land the #2 or #3 then there are some tempting trade options that will come knocking.

[Dat2U]

Butler wins the matchup against Hedo, Gerald Wallace, Marvin Williams, Moon/Beasley.

I have to quibble with this just a bit. Gerald Wallace OWNS us. He abuses our forwards like an ugly stepchild. Checkout his career best games, I bet half of them are against us.

[nate33]

Butler wins the matchup against Hedo, Gerald Wallace, Marvin Williams, Moon/Beasley.

I have to quibble with this just a bit. Gerald Wallace OWNS us. He abuses our forwards like an ugly stepchild. Checkout his career best games, I bet half of them are against us.

That was my recollection too, but I looked it up and was surprised to see that the numbers tell a different story. Butler has a substantial advantage over Wallace in the head-to-head matchup. Butler averages 22.1 points to Wallace's 16.8 while posting significantly higher shooting percentages and assists. Butler routinely has big nights against Wallace, scoring 24 or more points in 6 consecutive matchups before scoring just 19 in their last meeting. Butler's Wizards have won 7 of the 11 matchups.

The numbers would be a bit closer if you adjusted for minutes played, but overall, Butler outperforms Wallace.

[closg00]

Someone asked about Blatche during Thorpe's chat today, his comments won't surprise anyone here.

Geoff (DC): Hey David, Blatche takes a ton of heat in these chats and in Washington and I just want to stand up for him. The guy is a second round pick signed to an absolute bargain contract (15 mil in 6 years or something) and is a decent role player off the bench - nothing wrong with that. He's simply not that talented like people claim (KG 2.0 puhleez) and I think if people would accept that, he would actually have more confidence and play a bit better.

David Thorpe: Actually, it's just the opposite. He's crazy talented. I like him as a role player, but he could have been a star.