Line-ups, rotation, analysis thread.

[bsilver]

Pointing out several times, that if you pass Rui the ball, never expect to get it back.

Did you watch the game ....taking ONLY 8 shots in 27 minutes is not gunning shots up on any NBA team

Watched every second. It was 12 shots in 20 minutes.

That wasn't the point anyway. If he didn't have the reputation, the announcers wouldn't bring it up repeatedly.

[tontoz]

Rui took 12 shots vs the Cavs, 8 against the Pistons.

He definitely has tunnel vision on offense. He also has a TS of 58% this year and last year which is pretty good.

[payitforward]

Rui ...has a TS of 58% this year and last year which is pretty good.

It's almost exactly average for a PF in the NBA. Average isn't "bad," & average isn't "good." It's neither. It's average.

Then there are the rest of Rui's stats -- again as compared to the NBA average for a PF:
He's a below average defensive rebounder.
He's way below average in offensive rebounds.
He's way below average in assists for PF.
He's turning the ball over this year about 50% more often than an average PF.
He's waaay below average in steals -- in fact, so far this year, he doesn't have a single steal.
He blocks less than half as many shots as an average PF.

OTOH, Rui does have 1 positive stat: he commits a lot fewer fouls than average for a PF.

Overall, however, Rui has yet to approach the productivity of an average NBA player at his position. Let me be clear. He's nowhere near average overall. In fact, overall, he is just plain bad.

& this leaves out the way his poor BBIQ shows itself in his grasp & execution of team defense.

Unfortunately, Rui is also in his 4th year in the league. 3+ months from now he will turn 25. It's extremely unlikely that he'll ever be a really good (i.e. consistently above average) player in the NBA. In truth, he doesn't have much time left to demonstrate that he belongs in the league.

As to the different but related question as to whether Rui was a good draft pick at #9, the answer is obvious: no, he wasn't. In fact, he was an absolutely terrible draft pick at #9.

[dckingsfan]

I wonder how the Wright injury on top of the Kispert injury is going to affect Wes' lineups.

The second unit has been bad offensively this season but not bad defensively (I think on the back of Wright).

First rotation crisis up for Wes.

[doclinkin]

Given the minutes Rui plays and the fact that our starters are outscoring our opponents, what would be the implications of Hachimura having a positive plus/minus?

That something miraculous happened and he had a basketball transplant? The ghost of somebody with basketball skill has possessed his body?

Nate's point shows that even playing next to Beal or ANYbody on court, Rui has a negative effect on the team's +/-. Rui is not in the negative solely because he is playing with the bench. But the bench is at least partly in the negative because they are playing with Rui.

For example, Deni is noted as a +/- king on this team. We knock him a bit because he defers to other players to set them up to score. But even without him shooting much, or well, the team benefits with him on the court. Put him next to anybody bench or starter, and he has a positive +/-.

Well not quite anybody. Scroll down to the 2-man line-ups.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/lineups/2023

Pick a bench player, any of them, and even those that have been struggling the most have some player who they have a positive +/- next to. (Deni usually, but generally one other as well). Gafford plays well next to Morris. Gill played in the positive with any starter, and even Davis. But not Rui. Bad effect next to anybody. Small sample sizes of course, but at least he is consistent.

Delon Wright is an interesting case. He played in the negative with everybody but Deni. So much for his defense making all the difference. Not sure what to make of it, except that his reluctance to take a shot means teams can ignore him on that end, and concentrate on others. The bench will look better when Kispert comes back and adds a floor spacer, back door lane attacker. Hopefully his willingness to shoot will force teams to chase outside.

Delon Wright going down makes me think Deni will pick up slack playmaking in the 2nd unit. Will Barton can't carry all the ballhandling duties, some starter or another is going to have to play minutes with the bench at all times.

[payitforward]

You know... it's not like anyone wants Rui to perform badly. Why would anyone want that?

For me, the better he is the happier I am about it.

[prime1time]

Given the minutes Rui plays and the fact that our starters are outscoring our opponents, what would be the implications of Hachimura having a positive plus/minus?

That something miraculous happened and he had a basketball transplant? The ghost of somebody with basketball skill has possessed his body?

Nate's point shows that even playing next to Beal or ANYbody on court, Rui has a negative effect on the team's +/-. Rui is not in the negative solely because he is playing with the bench. But the bench is at least partly in the negative because they are playing with Rui.

For example, Deni is noted as a +/- king on this team. We knock him a bit because he defers to other players to set them up to score. But even without him shooting much, or well, the team benefits with him on the court. Put him next to anybody bench or starter, and he has a positive +/-.

Well not quite anybody. Scroll down to the 2-man line-ups.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/lineups/2023

Pick a bench player, any of them, and even those that have been struggling the most have some player who they have a positive +/- next to. (Deni usually, but generally one other as well). Gafford plays well next to Morris. Gill played in the positive with any starter, and even Davis. But not Rui. Bad effect next to anybody. Small sample sizes of course, but at least he is consistent.

Delon Wright is an interesting case. He played in the negative with everybody but Deni. So much for his defense making all the difference. Not sure what to make of it, except that his reluctance to take a shot means teams can ignore him on that end, and concentrate on others. The bench will look better when Kispert comes back and adds a floor spacer, back door lane attacker. Hopefully his willingness to shoot will force teams to chase outside.

Delon Wright going down makes me think Deni will pick up slack playmaking in the 2nd unit. Will Barton can't carry all the ballhandling duties, some starter or another is going to have to play minutes with the bench at all times.

Let's remove Rui from the conversation and insert generic role-player A. Are you arguing that the right role player could turn the Wizards into a championship contender?

[dckingsfan]

Given the minutes Rui plays and the fact that our starters are outscoring our opponents, what would be the implications of Hachimura having a positive plus/minus?

That something miraculous happened and he had a basketball transplant? The ghost of somebody with basketball skill has possessed his body?

Nate's point shows that even playing next to Beal or ANYbody on court, Rui has a negative effect on the team's +/-. Rui is not in the negative solely because he is playing with the bench. But the bench is at least partly in the negative because they are playing with Rui.

For example, Deni is noted as a +/- king on this team. We knock him a bit because he defers to other players to set them up to score. But even without him shooting much, or well, the team benefits with him on the court. Put him next to anybody bench or starter, and he has a positive +/-.

Well not quite anybody. Scroll down to the 2-man line-ups.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/lineups/2023

Pick a bench player, any of them, and even those that have been struggling the most have some player who they have a positive +/- next to. (Deni usually, but generally one other as well). Gafford plays well next to Morris. Gill played in the positive with any starter, and even Davis. But not Rui. Bad effect next to anybody. Small sample sizes of course, but at least he is consistent.

Delon Wright is an interesting case. He played in the negative with everybody but Deni. So much for his defense making all the difference. Not sure what to make of it, except that his reluctance to take a shot means teams can ignore him on that end, and concentrate on others. The bench will look better when Kispert comes back and adds a floor spacer, back door lane attacker. Hopefully his willingness to shoot will force teams to chase outside.

Delon Wright going down makes me think Deni will pick up slack playmaking in the 2nd unit. Will Barton can't carry all the ballhandling duties, some starter or another is going to have to play minutes with the bench at all times.

Let's remove Rui from the conversation and insert generic role-player A. Are you arguing that the right role player could turn the Wizards into a championship contender?

I thought this was the line-ups, rotation, analysis thread? I think that the last question is kind of a false dilemma vs. the spectrum of possibilities with this current team and possible line-ups.

I think the questions should be: with Rui out of the lineup, would we see an improvement?

Also, doc seems to have touched on another really interesting factoid: Wright and Deni. You would think those two playing together would be a disaster, but not so much.

[doclinkin]

Let's remove Rui from the conversation and insert generic role-player A. Are you arguing that the right role player could turn the Wizards into a championship contender?

No I am arguing if you removed Rui from the conversation entirely you should be able to recoup more value from trading him than he is worth on court. Because while he looks good in highlights and on offense, right now he only helps your team lose. Which is great from the tanking perspective, but not great long term if you re-ink him to an extension. Unless he suddenly gets better in team play.

Sounds like you are arguing something you haven't posited yet. Like perhaps you think the coaching staff is doing something wrong.

To my way of thinking the only thing that could turn this team into a championship contender is adding an All-NBA & All-Defensive team caliber player at PF. Which is why I am in the tank for tanking. And why I'd be willing to swap Rui (and almost any other player) for future picks.

With Brad locked in to that contract/no trade the only way we can get a sudden change of fortune is if we hit home runs with our picks. Our front office is very conventional and cautious in their draft strategy, so the only way to get those franchise caliber players is if we draft really really high in the right year. We are not growing our own Giannis with a late selection.

Is the question: 'What could our coaching staff do to get better synergy out of the players we already have?'

[doclinkin]

Off topic but it occurs to me one way to make seasons like this compelling is if the team winning the play-in tournament got additional ping pong balls in the lottery. Like maybe the #4 slot in lotto odds. Or better. Win/win for that team. They get post-season cash, and still have a chance to climb into contention with a lucky bounce. This would put incentive into scrapping for that last spot. Unlikely that a 9th/10th seed would win the whole thing and get the top spot, but they get rewarded for trying and have a chance to escape the treadmill of mediocrity.

[tontoz]

Years ago we traded Oubre rather than resign him. Maybe they are thinking the same thing with Rui.

[Frichuela]

Years ago we traded Oubre rather than resign him. Maybe they are thinking the same thing with Rui.

Indeed. And Grunfeld got so little value for Oubre…blunder included..hopefully Tommy can do better this time.

[nate33]

Years ago we traded Oubre rather than resign him. Maybe they are thinking the same thing with Rui.

I hope so.

They need to make the decision on resigning Rui before the Trade Deadline. If they want to keep him, so be it. But if they are disinclined to keep him, they need to move him for whatever value they can get.

Unfortunately, I'm not so sure the Oubre example is indicative of solid foresight by management. They dumped Oubre for practically nothing in a desperate effort to get out of the luxtax. It was reactive, not proactive.

[Zonkerbl]

What is Porzingis' +-?

[payitforward]

Spoiler:

That something miraculous happened and he had a basketball transplant? The ghost of somebody with basketball skill has possessed his body?

Nate's point shows that even playing next to Beal or ANYbody on court, Rui has a negative effect on the team's +/-. Rui is not in the negative solely because he is playing with the bench. But the bench is at least partly in the negative because they are playing with Rui.

For example, Deni is noted as a +/- king on this team. We knock him a bit because he defers to other players to set them up to score. But even without him shooting much, or well, the team benefits with him on the court. Put him next to anybody bench or starter, and he has a positive +/-.

Well not quite anybody. Scroll down to the 2-man line-ups.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/avdijde01/lineups/2023

Pick a bench player, any of them, and even those that have been struggling the most have some player who they have a positive +/- next to. (Deni usually, but generally one other as well). Gafford plays well next to Morris. Gill played in the positive with any starter, and even Davis. But not Rui. Bad effect next to anybody. Small sample sizes of course, but at least he is consistent.

Delon Wright is an interesting case. He played in the negative with everybody but Deni. So much for his defense making all the difference. Not sure what to make of it, except that his reluctance to take a shot means teams can ignore him on that end, and concentrate on others. The bench will look better when Kispert comes back and adds a floor spacer, back door lane attacker. Hopefully his willingness to shoot will force teams to chase outside.

Delon Wright going down makes me think Deni will pick up slack playmaking in the 2nd unit. Will Barton can't carry all the ballhandling duties, some starter or another is going to have to play minutes with the bench at all times.

Let's remove Rui from the conversation and insert generic role-player A. Are you arguing that the right role player could turn the Wizards into a championship contender?

...I think the questions should be: with Rui out of the lineup, would we see an improvement?...

What am I missing in this exchange, I wonder...?

If a player better than Rui played instead of him, we'd be better. If the guy who replaced Rui was worse, we'd be worse.

Replace Rui's name with Brad's or any other name & the 2 statements remain true.

As to prime's question: not only is there no role player who "could turn the Wizards into a championship contender," but there is also no single player in the league, none, not even Giannis, who would turn the Wizards into a championship contender.

OTOH, what if we had...

Robert Williams instead of Gafford?
Brandon Clarke & Keldon Johnson instead of Rui?
Tyrese Halliburton instead of Deni?
Desmond Bane instead of signing Bertans to a ridiculous contract?
Tre Jones instead of a '24 R2 pick coming from OKC?
Trey Murphy III instead of Kispert?
Ayo Dosunmu instead of Isaiah Todd?
Tari Eason & Andrew Nembhard instead of Johnny Davis?

...to go with Beal, Morris, Wright, Barton & KP?

No miracle required. No superstar signing required. Just draft well.

Nor is there a speculative move on that list -- in fact, every one of those picks was strongly suggested by a bunch of people on this board~

[nate33]

What is Porzingis' +-?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/

[tontoz]

One thing i like about KP is that he is decisive with the ball. Whatever he decides to do, he does it quickly.

[dckingsfan]

Spoiler:

Let's remove Rui from the conversation and insert generic role-player A. Are you arguing that the right role player could turn the Wizards into a championship contender?

...I think the questions should be: with Rui out of the lineup, would we see an improvement?...

What am I missing in this exchange, I wonder...?

If a player better than Rui played instead of him, we'd be better. If the guy who replaced Rui was worse, we'd be worse.

Replace Rui's name with Brad's or any other name & the 2 statements remain true.

As to prime's question: not only is there no role player who "could turn the Wizards into a championship contender," but there is also no single player in the league, none, not even Giannis, who would turn the Wizards into a championship contender.

OTOH, what if we had...

Robert Williams instead of Gafford?
Brandon Clarke & Keldon Johnson instead of Rui?
Tyrese Halliburton instead of Deni?
Desmond Bane instead of signing Bertans to a ridiculous contract?
Tre Jones instead of a '24 R2 pick coming from OKC?
Trey Murphy III instead of Kispert?
Ayo Dosunmu instead of Isaiah Todd?
Tari Eason & Andrew Nembhard instead of Johnny Davis?

...to go with Beal, Morris, Wright, Barton & KP?

No miracle required. No superstar signing required. Just draft well.

Nor is there a speculative move on that list -- in fact, every one of those picks was strongly suggested by a bunch of people on this board~

For this thread - the question should be which players could we play instead of Rui to have a better outcome.

For the trade thread, Tommy thread or the draft thread - your question(s) are more pertinent, no?

[nate33]

[As to prime's question: not only is there no role player who "could turn the Wizards into a championship contender," but there is also no single player in the league, none, not even Giannis, who would turn the Wizards into a championship contender.

I don't think that's true at all. You are wildly underestimating how a first rate superstar bends a defense and makes life easier for teammates. Note only that, but a superstar would bump everyone else down the rotation a notch, putting them into a role where they fit better.

Beal and Porzingis are not #1 options, but they'd be fine as #2 and #3 options. Kuzma, Avdija, Barton, Morris and Wright may not be above average starters, but if they're the 4th through 8th men, they're solid. Kuzma has a ring as the 5th best guy on his team. Barton was the 4th best guy on a Denver team that made the WCF's.

If you added Giannis or Luka to this team, they would compete for a championship.

[DCZards]

Gotta agree with Nate. A player like Giannis would make a huge difference in the Zards’ fortunes.

The Zards would have a better chance of winning a championship by adding Giannis than they would by adding this entire list of players.

Robert Williams instead of Gafford?
Brandon Clarke & Keldon Johnson instead of Rui?
Tyrese Halliburton instead of Deni?
Desmond Bane instead of signing Bertans to a ridiculous contract?
Tre Jones instead of a '24 R2 pick coming from OKC?
Trey Murphy III instead of Kispert?
Ayo Dosunmu instead of Isaiah Todd?
Tari Eason & Andrew Nembhard instead of Johnny Davis?

At the end of the day, the NBA is about quality and not quantity…and one truly great player trumps a long list of decent to above average players.