Cousins,Wall, Favors, Turner. I'm on record by saying I want

[Hoopalotta]

Here's a possible pictorial chronology through Cousin's rookie contract......

Year 1:


Year 2:


Year 3:


Year 4:

[dangermouse]

I wont even bat an eyelid if John Wall doesnt win RotY. Not many number #1 selections have in the past. My eyes would fall out of my head and explode into balla of smoke and glitter all over my jeans if he isnt even in the discussion, though.

I'd expect Turner to be up there, even Wes Johnson, maybe Favors and MAYBE Cousins. But Wall, if he remains healthy, will be amongst the top 3 for sure.

[Illuminaire]

Illuminaire, I generally agree with your reasoning on why Cousins is a gamble, but your comparison with the others is a little misleading for a number of reasons. First, you use the best seasons of the other three for comparison, which is in each case their last college season, which is the second season for Blair and the third season for both Boozer and Millsap. Cousins didn't have a second or third season to produce a better FG% (very possible) or a lower foul rate (possible). Further, his numbers in his first season are pretty dominating, more so than those of the other three. Finally, he's clearly built as an NBA center, whereas the other three never were, making them not a perfect comparison in their college or pro games. This doesn't negate the foul issue or the attitude issue (a little overblown to me) or make Cousins not a gamble, but my feelings of uncertainty stem from the small window of Cousins viewing: one year as basically a part time player (not unlike my uncertainty regarding Livingston).

Hehe, good points Monte. I had two different arguments in my head when I wrote that, and I didn't articulate either of them properly. To quickly respond - the FG% and fouls were fairly consistent throughout the other three players' college careers, which was my main point against Cousins from a stat basis anyways.

It's the foul thing that has me spooked. That and the low success rate of big men with poor work ethics. (I can think of Shaq and Rasheed. Who else fits that profile?)

[verbal8]

I want the Wizards to pick Wall.

I like a lot of things about Cousins, but I don't like the risk. If the Wizards needed a "win-now" player, I would probably be inclined to take the risk with him. I see the Derrick Coleman parallels, both the positives and negatives. He could well be very successful early in his career, but I think over their careers Wall will be the better choice.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I see what you're saying, CCJ. I'd like to think your guess is right. But it seems like a long shot... could Cousins become a dominant center and a rock that championships are built from? Oh, heck yeah! The chances just seem remarkably low.

I don't think your previous assessments have a great deal of bearing in this case. The general trend is similar (big fella with red flags taken too late in draft), but the specific *reasons* are very different. Mostly, we don't think Cousins can be a consistent enough force to be worth the top pick... a few flashes of brilliance simply aren't going to be good enough. Taking a quick look at the other bigs you mentioned and how they transitioned to the NBA (Per-36 numbers, using only their best college season versus their pro averages):

Carlos Boozer
College: 23.1 pts / 11 rbs / 66.5% shooting / 3.9 pfs
NBA: 19 pts / 11.2 rbs / 54% shooting / 3.5 pfs

Paul Millsap
College: 20.7 pts / 14 rbs / 57.1% shooting / 3.3 pfs
NBA: 14.9 pts / 9.7 rbs / 52.7% shooting / 5pfs

Dajuan Blair
College: 20.7 pts / 16.2 rbs / 59% shooting / 3.6 pfs
NBA: 15.4 pts / 12.7 rbs / 55% shooting / 5.4 pfs

Boozer fairs the best by far. Everyone else takes major hits to points and rebounds. Both of the chunky youngsters struggle with foul issues. All three drop significantly in shooting percentage. Production is still good, but efficiency takes a hit as they hit the big stage.

Demarcus Cousins
College: 23 pts / 15.2 rbs / 55.8% shooting / 4.9 pfs
NBA: ???

Cousins raw numbers are extremely impressive. However, they leave major question marks. His shooting percentage is comparatively weak for a supposedly dominant offensive big. The lack of zone defenses should help him, but the lack of variety in his post moves are a red flag and will work against him. More worrisome, his foul rate is straight up terrifying - and that's at the collegiate level. Most 'heavy' bigs foul more in the NBA, not less. There is a very good chance that Cousins could post an even worse per=36 foul rate for the next few years... how many minutes do you think he'll play then? I don't care how good he is, 15 minutes of play a game won't win anyone a championship.

Now, Cousins has a few things in his favor. He's on the right side of the developmental curve. His freshman year of college compares favorably with most draftee's best year. He has enough length that he won't be undersized in the NBA. From the games I was able to see, he does care about winning (in the moment) and is unlikely to completely lose it like Sweetney did. I expect that his basement is as a remarkably productive backup big, and his ceiling is a nastier, floor-based Dwight Howard.

There are too many question marks for me though. At the 5th or later pick, I think he's an excellent gamble. But that's just it... he's a gamble. All the evidence I can find suggests he will struggle to stay on the court in the NBA for his first few years, and I think it's highly debatable whether he will respond to that adversity with a productive attitude.

You don't bet the farm on a 16 in blackjack - yes, you can win that hand, but your chances of success are crap. Likewise, you don't bet the franchise on an overweight headcase who can't stay on the court or bother to do off-court conditioning. Yes, he could mature and develop... but his chances of success are still crap.

Really nice post, Illuminaire.

Best post countering my argument that I've seen. We'll see about Cousins.

[Zonkerbl]

Admitting I know absolutely NOTHING about Cousins, I remember when I used to follow the draft really closely that I was struck by the number of picks with out of this world athletic talent who were dumb as rocks who ended up bombing in the nba. You can't succeed in the NBA if you're stupid, it simply doesn't matter how talented you are. I mean like KFB dumb.

So if Cousins is really an idiot I can see how smart GMs might be shying away from him.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Smoke caused Paul Pierce to drop to 10.

One year ago there was an out of control brush fire concerning Dejuan Blair, at 6'5" and weighing over 300 lbs before going through rapid, radical weight loss. Oh, and having no ACLs. The draft genuises were all over that pick .... NOT. I was right.

Years back Boozer dropped like a stone. I was right even saying before he was drafted this guy's going to be way better than Kwame ever will be. That smoke on Boozer was a false alarm.

Paul Millsap, I talked about for months and months prior to the draft. I said he's going to be much better than Alexander Johnson or Shelden Williams. Those who believed the draft experts talked about Millsap going against no competition at a small school. They pointed to Williams being a lottery selection. I said Millsap is the guy that belongs in lottery, and that the Wizards would do well to pick him at 18. But folks were happy with Pecherov ....

Regardless of all the (legitimate concerns and) smoke about Cousins ...

How I feel about Demarcus Cousins is he can rebound right with Blair and better than even Millsap. He can score inside like Boozer. He's about as tall and probably has a bit higher standing reach than Kwame. He will hold position on the block at both ends. He's smart enough to flop. He knows how to strip the ball AND he can block shots at a good rate without even jumping. Like Boozer, Demarcus is a go-to scorer.

Cousins is some of all those players combined and appears to me to be better than all those guys talent-wise.

Okay, so he's apparently as dumb as a rock, as ill-tempered as a story book ogre, perhaps as nutty as Ron Artest or me back in the day off meds, not in therapy, and before Jesus as my savior; and he's a candidate to be Stanley Roberts/Oliver Miller/Mike Sweetney fat.

Okay, fine.

My GUESS and the way I'm inclined to feel is some combination of God, money, maturity, and the right woman can fix all of that. Demarcus sounds like a purebred momma's boy who's still very immature emotionally. That guy under somebody who's lived a little like Blatche will be okay.

Agree with keynote. These are false analogies. Nobody is questioning your ability to see talent where others don't see it. I give you credit for Boozer, Millsap, etc. (though I won't let you forget Morris Almond and Richard Hendrix; you're not infallible). This is not a question of talent evaluation. Nobody thinks Cousins can't play. If Cousins had the attitude and work ethic of Wall/Turner, he'd be the number 1 pick in this draft, or at least the number 2 pick.

The Paul Pierce analogy seems right. He was a talented player who fell based on character issues. The detractors were indeed wrong about him.

But Cousins might not be Paul Pierce. He could be Mike Sweetney, Sean May or Tyrus Thomas. I think a very likely scenario is that he pans out be similar to Rasheed Wallace. He'll be very good, but a bit shy of being elite because he's such a pain in the ass.

Damn, nate. It's hard to argue with anything you said.

Wallace to me has had a decent enough career. One title with Detroit, one near miss with Boston. If he's not cramping up and broke down at almost 36 they beat the Lakers. One epic meltdown with Pippen in Portland when they had the Lakers all but eliminated the first season Shaq and Kobe won, or else with the Blazers he might have had another title. Wallace has been a winning player for the most part, despite his meltdowns and towel throwing. If Cousins is a Rasheed Wallace player then you're right. I see him being much better rebounding but not the defender Wallace is. Cousins scores in the paint or he gets fouled at a much better rate than Rasheed. But Sheed is way smarter than Cousins. We'll see.

Oh, Hendrix is a darned good player in Europe:

Drafted in 2008 by the Golden State Warriors late in the second round after a pre-draft physical uncovered potential red flags in his knee, Richard Hendrix was unceremoniously dumped by Don Nelson when he found out that he shockingly is not a fit for his system in the least bit. Hendrix seemed to have made out just fine from the deal, pocketing a cool half a million dollars in guaranteed cash for under a month of service. He proceeded to join the D-League, where he looked somewhat disinterested at times, but still found a way to average nearly 15 rebounds per-40 minutes pace adjusted, good for second in the league. He then played extremely well in two separate summer leagues (Orlando and Vegas) as a member of the Magic and Nuggets’ rosters, but when no NBA team came calling with guaranteed cash, opted to sign in the Spanish ACB with CB Granada.

The move seems to be paying off quite well for Hendrix, as he’s already established himself as one of the more productive big men in the league—averaging nearly 20 and 10 per-40 minutes pace adjusted—despite being a 23-year old rookie in the toughest domestic league in Europe. If anything, he’s upped his value significantly in Europe by showing that he can translate his game over to a new style of play, and he’s surely improved in his own right along the way.

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Ric ... z0rWDPJPB2
http://www.draftexpress.com

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

BTW Hendrix is still a player the Wizards could use. He's so much better than Oberto it isn't even funny.

Like Oberto, Hendrix can play some C.

I am not infallible by a long shot but I still feel 100% that Hendrix is a fine, NBA-caliber player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

nate, Hendrix just left because there was no guaranteed cash on the table with NBA teams. Hendrix is a smart kid, like Steph Curry he's a school principal's kid. He knows that pro ball is about getting paid. Europe allows him to actually play and not be an 8th-12th man on a roster.

He is not any worse for being wise enough to do what Josh Childress did. Boykins was a Euro baller. Basically, anybody who wants more than the D League pays can go overseas. But just because certain guys are in the D League it doesn't mean they can't play. Alonzo Gee and Shaun Livingston and Sundiata Gaines showed quite the contrary.

nate, I was WRONG about Morris Almond tearing up the NBA, him being better than Nick Young, better than JJ Redick; based on him not beating out CJ Miles or Ronnie Brewer with Utah. This season Wesley Matthews came right in and tore it up as a rookie SG on the same Jazz team.

That said, Almond did well enough in the D League and he also signed a 7-figure European contract. Someone who scouted him professionally over there thought highly of him.

[Ruzious]

Irony time, CCJ. Another reason Pierce fell was because Milwaukee stupidly went for a player with a bigger weight problem than Cousins - Tractor Trayler. The Bucks even traded up - from 9 to 6. At 9 was actually a better player than Pierce - Dirk. Double fubar.

[yungal07]

Almond had a chance to make the Knicks this last offseason, and I got the feeling that after summer league ended, most Knick fans disliked his game. And rightfully so...dude never passed the ball.

The guy made Nick Young look like Magic Johnson.

[sfam]

Almond had a chance to make the Knicks this last offseason, and I got the feeling that after summer league ended, most Knick fans disliked his game. And rightfully so...dude never passed the ball.

The guy made Nick Young look like Magic Johnson.

That's a great line!

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Irony time, CCJ. Another reason Pierce fell was because Milwaukee stupidly went for a player with a bigger weight problem than Cousins - Tractor Trayler. The Bucks even traded up - from 9 to 6. At 9 was actually a better player than Pierce - Dirk. Double fubar.

Traylor even as a junior didn't put up across the board numbers like Cousins. Traylor was more like Tiny Gallon or Derrick Caracter than like Demarcus Cousins.

Milwaukee just blundered on that selection.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Almond had a chance to make the Knicks this last offseason, and I got the feeling that after summer league ended, most Knick fans disliked his game. And rightfully so...dude never passed the ball.

The guy made Nick Young look like Magic Johnson.

yungal, he's apparently an extremely selfish player.

Almond apparently has a very low basketball IQ. Seems he'd figure a way to contribute other than just shooting the ball all the time.

I didn't know he'd be a selfish player with no desire (apparently) to do anything but jack shots. I thought Almond would rebound better and that he'd evolve beyond just being a scorer. I was wrong.

[daSwami]

I threw Wes Johnson a pity vote, but I would like the record to say that I really want Wall.

[Tyrone Messby]

John Wall, no question, but if we can somehow get both Wall AND Cousins...damn

[Kanyewest]

I see what you're saying, CCJ. I'd like to think your guess is right. But it seems like a long shot... could Cousins become a dominant center and a rock that championships are built from? Oh, heck yeah! The chances just seem remarkably low.

I don't think your previous assessments have a great deal of bearing in this case. The general trend is similar (big fella with red flags taken too late in draft), but the specific *reasons* are very different. Mostly, we don't think Cousins can be a consistent enough force to be worth the top pick... a few flashes of brilliance simply aren't going to be good enough. Taking a quick look at the other bigs you mentioned and how they transitioned to the NBA (Per-36 numbers, using only their best college season versus their pro averages):

Carlos Boozer
College: 23.1 pts / 11 rbs / 66.5% shooting / 3.9 pfs
NBA: 19 pts / 11.2 rbs / 54% shooting / 3.5 pfs

Paul Millsap
College: 20.7 pts / 14 rbs / 57.1% shooting / 3.3 pfs
NBA: 14.9 pts / 9.7 rbs / 52.7% shooting / 5pfs

Dajuan Blair
College: 20.7 pts / 16.2 rbs / 59% shooting / 3.6 pfs
NBA: 15.4 pts / 12.7 rbs / 55% shooting / 5.4 pfs

Boozer fairs the best by far. Everyone else takes major hits to points and rebounds. Both of the chunky youngsters struggle with foul issues. All three drop significantly in shooting percentage. Production is still good, but efficiency takes a hit as they hit the big stage.

Demarcus Cousins
College: 23 pts / 15.2 rbs / 55.8% shooting / 4.9 pfs
NBA: ???

Cousins raw numbers are extremely impressive. However, they leave major question marks. His shooting percentage is comparatively weak for a supposedly dominant offensive big. The lack of zone defenses should help him, but the lack of variety in his post moves are a red flag and will work against him. More worrisome, his foul rate is straight up terrifying - and that's at the collegiate level. Most 'heavy' bigs foul more in the NBA, not less. There is a very good chance that Cousins could post an even worse per=36 foul rate for the next few years... how many minutes do you think he'll play then? I don't care how good he is, 15 minutes of play a game won't win anyone a championship.

Now, Cousins has a few things in his favor. He's on the right side of the developmental curve. His freshman year of college compares favorably with most draftee's best year. He has enough length that he won't be undersized in the NBA. From the games I was able to see, he does care about winning (in the moment) and is unlikely to completely lose it like Sweetney did. I expect that his basement is as a remarkably productive backup big, and his ceiling is a nastier, floor-based Dwight Howard.

There are too many question marks for me though. At the 5th or later pick, I think he's an excellent gamble. But that's just it... he's a gamble. All the evidence I can find suggests he will struggle to stay on the court in the NBA for his first few years, and I think it's highly debatable whether he will respond to that adversity with a productive attitude.

You don't bet the farm on a 16 in blackjack - yes, you can win that hand, but your chances of success are crap. Likewise, you don't bet the franchise on an overweight headcase who can't stay on the court or bother to do off-court conditioning. Yes, he could mature and develop... but his chances of success are still crap.

I was thinking that all of those guys- Boozer, Millsap, and Blair are good values for where they were picked. But I bet we view the value of those guys differently if they were picked in the top 3-4 in the entire draft. Someone like Boozer would be a dissapointment in some drafts as the #1 pick. Of course, someone like Cousins has much better physical characteristics than all of those players above and he's also much younger which means he has room to grow; although the strength of his potential is often overlooked because of the reputation of his immaturity.

[willbcocks]

I think the other thing that makes Cousins a bad analog to CCJ's tubby all stars is his lack of a long body of work. He is leaving after one year where he averaged 20 minutes a game. Most of these other guys were four-year players who played big minutes and were the guy on their teams.

The argument for cousins is based largely on statistics but I'm not comfortable with the sample size of his work. Not only is it small, but there's nothing at all for us to judge how he performed statistically when playing the leading role, in big minutes, on a team going through adversity, which is precisely the argument being made against him by his detractors.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Bottom line is I'll be saying I told you so in about 4 months. That guy's going to be good. Really really good.

But then in about 3 years when he's run afoul of the league or the law or has failed at Jenny Craig, the rest of you might be saying you told me so.

[Illuminaire]

I think the other thing that makes Cousins a bad analog to CCJ's tubby all stars is his lack of a long body of work. He is leaving after one year where he averaged 20 minutes a game. Most of these other guys were four-year players who played big minutes and were the guy on their teams.

The argument for cousins is based largely on statistics but I'm not comfortable with the sample size of his work. Not only is it small, but there's nothing at all for us to judge how he performed statistically when playing the leading role, in big minutes, on a team going through adversity, which is precisely the argument being made against him by his detractors.

The problem is, Cousins is the *reason* the sample size is small.