Championship: why not, or how. Strategy, tactics, best hopes

[doclinkin]

Okay. A call to arms for the pie-eyed optimists. And a sudoku puzzle for the grim realists. The question is: Given the situation we have at hand, what is the quickest or best route you can see that leads towards Championship contention. Satisfaction.

Understood, we have a trade thread, we have a free agent thread, we're all trying to envision this team winning the last game of the post season. Maybe this thread is redundant, maybe not. I'm just interested in seeing fans dreams of how they could see it work if they were scripting the story of this team's rise to a dynasty. Yes the nuts and bolts of how to get there are interesting if you want to use this as a grand unified theory thread to move the puzzle pieces in your mind to make it work.

How do we win a championship and how long does it take. Be as realistic or hopeful as your whimsy allows. Feel free to talk strategy, tactics, on court or in the front office, etc. This is a sketchbook for brainstorming more than a place that requires the airtight foolproof plan. The improbable happens, occasionally in our favor. If that pleases you, feel free to put it here too.

[daSwami]

I guess I'd call myself an optimist inasmuch as I think that the end of the Pollin era was the only thing that could have a radical enough effect to turn this team around. Hell, we're already getting urinal cups. That's a huge step in the right direction.

As for strategy, I say let's "build around Wall." That also qualifies as a best hope (short of landing Melo next off-season, or even at the trade deadline if he's available.)

I don't think that there's a fool-proof formula for winning championships in this league. The "two-star" formula (Jordan/Pippen, Kobe/Shaq) seems sort of dated now. I truly think that the most successful teams are the ones that have enough depth to play with a high motor for 48 minutes. That, and making sure you have enough shooters to weather the storm. I'm convinced that the thing that kept The Wiz from advancing in the playoffs for 4 straight years is that our "shooting" guards were Deshaun and Jarvis. blech.

[Donkey McDonkerton]

We'll have the best back court in the league...if we had a dominant big man, we'd be close. I think Blatche's game has come a long way, but we need a big banger.

[verbal8]

We'll have the best back court in the league...if we had a dominant big man, we'd be close. I think Blatche's game has come a long way, but we need a big banger.

I think a two-way big makes the Wizards a contender. However I think finding a big who rebounds and defends could be enough if things come together at SG(Arenas short-term) and SF(not sure if they have the guy on the roster). In couple years it may be that Seraphin can be that guy consistently. If Blatche and McGee continue to develop I think that is a very strong combination.

[pineappleheadindc]

we're missing an inside, physical presence and a defensive mindset that turns all of our players into a swarm.

Wall will help us when we have the ball, but I question our abilit toget stops, either when our opponents feed the post or when they break us down with cutters to the hoop.

[JWizmentality]

I think we'll surprise a few people this year. I will guarantee one thing though, this team will beat Miami at least once during the regular season. Book it!!

[fishercob]

I'd like to answer the challenge on a day when I have a little more time, but a few quick thoughts/observations.

We can all agree that Rip Hamilton isn't a special defender, right? Well, he was a good enough "2" to help Detroit to a ring and another game 7. Given the progress our team D made last year with the coaching upgrade, as well as the offensive load that Wall will take off of Gil, I'm not convinced Gilbert isn't a long term option in the back court.

We have as talented -- or moreso within a year or two -- a back court as those teams had. What they had was the ultimate role-playing "3" in Prince, and a four deep big man rotation of Wallace, Wallace, Okur and McDyess.

We have no idea what we have in Seraphin. Maybe he's one of our Wallace's. Maybe Booker is our Prince. Or maybe they're good enough prospects that can be combined with a future first and Hinrich's big expiring to get one of those guys next year.

This is why I'd really like to see all these guys on the court before I go trading Gilbert. We may look at what we have and decide "we need more cap space to buy picks and short vet contracts to accumulate more assets., so we gotta move Gil" Or we may decide that were going to have a lotto pick this year and Ted will fork over $3M to Cubanize another, and that we can manage our cap and keep Gilbert and grow the talent base around our backcourt.

Here's the other thing that we NEVER talk about -- top line revenues. Why do we call think Ted is putting beer holders ion the urinals, hooks inside the stall doors, making sure the ketchup dispensers are full and the urinal cakes replenished?? Is it just because he's a nice guy?> Of course not. It's has everything to do with competing for a championship! Better fan experience means more top line revenue, which means more ability to pay the tax, which means better roster, more playoffs games which bring more revenue, which brings more wins, which bring huge merchandise sales (those colors are changing in a couple years) which brings the ability to pay what it takes to win a title.

The past two summers, Ted has committed $200M in contracts Alex Ovechkin and Nick Backstrom -- who make up less than 10% of bodies on the Caps active roster. You think he could do that 5 years ago? But now the Caps are sold out for the season, their jerseys are some of the best selling in the world, he drives revenue with awesome fan value-adds like the Caps convention, and the gameday experience is good that he can raise ticket prices every year with a 98% retention rate and a wait list.

Ted rightly saw the Wizards as we all do -- underutilized, under-capitalized (hey, look at that pun), under-loved. He bought them because there's MASSIVE upside. The realization of that upside is what is going to get us to a championship. The personnel moves will sort themselves out. But we're going to have a team and ownership with the ability to pay top dollar to invest in the D-League, coaching, stats analysis, international and domestic scouting, and creating a first class environment for the players - all the "little" things that are pretty big and add up to championship organizations.

So it turns out I did have the time. The map is Ted. The map is top line revenue. Buy tickets. Get in now before it's too late.

[nate33]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

[montestewart]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

I renewed my package some time back. I didn't know Wall would be part of the team, but if it was the current team minus Arenas, whether I renewed might have depended on what they got in return that would contribute this year. Still, Wall is a big draw.

[Firewall]

[quote][/qI think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season ticketsuote]

Having John Wall as the main event doesnt hurt. I still think alot of peple want to come see Arenas. They are curious like most to see how they will play together. After 20 games, winning and exciting basketball is what will keep the casual fan buying tickets.

That being said I would still move Arenas to help facilitate getting 2-way players at quick-side forward and a C/PF combo. The future as far as title aspirations are concerned do not involve Arenas.

[no D in Hibachi]

My blue print for a championship caliber team needs to have a solid rotation of 9 players where each player fills a specific role. There must be 4 front court players, 3 wing players and one needs to be versatile enough to effectively guard the 2 and 3, and 2 PG's. One of the front court players must be a dominate 2 way player who is feared on the block, a constant double double threat, and active and aggressive on defense. One of the wings need to be an elite scorer with the ability to get off a high percentage shot on nearly every possession. The lead PG needs to have the ability to control the game. I believe two of the players need to be ALL-NBA level players.

As I type this I can't help but think about the Boston Celtics. If they got together two years earlier they would have three-peated and if it were not for injuries to KG last year and Perk this year they would have won at least one more between this year and last. KG is the dominate two way player in their front court, PP was the wing player who could get a shot whenever he wanted, and Rondo pretty much can control any game by pushing the tempo.

The question is how similar are the Wiz to the current Celtic team? I don't think its that far off. The main players are in place to duplicate the Celtics players. Garnett-Blatche, Pierce-Arenas, Rondo-Wall. Each are a little different and maybe they haven't fully developed--Blatche isn't nearly the player Garnett was in his late prime, but he's rapidly improving and has a chance to be at least 80% of what Garnett was, which isn't bad since Garnett was a top 5 PF all-time. At this point I believe Arenas is better than Pierce because he is a better deep shooter and better penetrator, from what I see in Wall he's not that far off of Rondo's game right now.

Clearly the Wiz don't have a Ray Allen type player, nor do they have the role players the C's have had over the years, but they have prospects who might become solid role players on a championship caliber team. N1 could very well turn into a defensive stopper who hits big money 3-balls ala Posey, Seraphin has enormous potential and may very well end up better than Big Baby or Powe. McGee probably won't become Perkins like defensively, but overall I think he stands a chance of being a better player when taking into consideration his offense.

In my estimation the Wiz currently have 6 or maybe 7 players out of the necessary 9 man rotation who are championship level players. Three to maybe four front court guys: Blatche, McGee, Seraphin, and possibly Booker. Two wings: Arenas and Young. Two PG's Wall and Hinrich. They also have two ALL-NBA caliber players in Wall and Arenas, or maybe Blatche.

At this point the main pieces are in place but since the front court is raw I believe the team will generally struggle next year and end up with a late lotto pick where they can either take the fourth big, or the 3rd wing player. Keep in mind they also have a fair amount of cap space next year so that space can be used to acquire a missing player.

I say the best strategy to compete for a championship is to further the development of Blatche, McGee, Wall, and Seraphin. Help them work out all their growing pains this year and become better defenders. Give them all the necessary playing time to gain confidence and develop chemistry. As I said this won't translate into a great deal of wins, just enough to keep them from sulking, but not enough to get a bad pick in next years draft.

[dobrojim]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

That may well be true at the beginning of the season.

Let Gil get on the kind of roll he was on the season he suffered his first
injury and all bets are off on that

Wall figures to be good, hopefully very good real soon. And he's only 19.
Gil was just starting to re-hit his stride when he de-railed himself last
year. It's not out of the question for him, at age 28, 2 years of rest/rehab
from his surgeries, to have as good a year as he has ever had. Doesn't mean
he will. But it wouldn't shock me either.

[DCZards]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

I agree, nate. Wall is the BIG ticket. But the potentially dynamic (hopefully winning) backcourt of Wall and Arenas is an even bigger ticket. GA is still beloved by many cash-paying fans in this area who would like nothing more than to see him rehab his game and reputation right here in good 'ole DC.

[fishercob]

I think people overstate the revenue generating power of Arenas. Arenas meant a lot to this team in the past because he was the only superstar and superstars bring in the fans. But now, the Wizards have John Wall as their superstar. The fans are going to show up to see Wall. I don't think there are a lot of people for whom the presence of Arenas will be the difference-maker in whether or not they choose to buy season tickets.

Perhaps, but honestly, how would you know?

More to the point, my point about top line revenue has little to do with Arenas, specifically. Gil may stay or may go, but the path to a title is by unlocking the revenue potential of this business. I don't think being able to afford to keep Gil will ever be the reason he leaves. We're going to be a big revenue team, so we're going to be big spenders.

The game experience at the Phone Booth has been so crappy for so long that people forget that it's not all about wins and losses. A lot of people want to entertain clients, take their kids to see pro basketball, impress a date, etc. Not everyone will only come back if the team wins. If the experience is consistently great -- which it will be -- people will come.

That's the path to salvation -- the customer experience. Satisfied customers = bonds with the brand = big revenues. Big revenues allow ownership to take every possible step to win a ring. EVen in the recent past when Abe agreed to pay the tax, he wasn't spending big money in the other areas the lead to great personnel moves. If we had had a well-funded in-house stats department, perhaps we never would have traded the 5 for Miller and Foye, even if the mandate was to trade the pick. If we had our own dedicated d-league squad (ETA less than three years is my guess) maybe we'd have plucked a Matt Barnes, CJ Watson, Kelenna Azubuike, Chuck Hayes or Rafer Alston before someone else did.

I think you just mentioned in another thread how within a couple years we're going to be on FA or trade demand short lists. I agree -- and that has to do with top line revenues. Brendan extolled the virtues of Dallas' "first class" organization and he chose to re-sign there. Dallas went well into the tax to keep him. Revenues create the capital to invest into building that "first class" environment that players (all employees) crave, and revenues drive the budgets that allow teams to go into the luxtax.

Look at the luxtax bill Houston just committed to pay. You think Daryl Morey is all over twitter, Bill Simmons' podcast and the Sloan conference because he has spare time? He does it because Rockets fans love it, it enhances their bond to the team, and they are then willing to spend the money to help drive that engine.

Top line revenues. Ted never would have bought the team if that massive upside wasn't there, because he'd have no way to improve our fortunes. It's there, he does, and he will.

[fishercob]

One more thing: if GIlbert didn't have huge revenue generating power, Abe would **never** have signed him to that $111M contract.

[nate33]

One more thing: if GIlbert didn't have huge revenue generating power, Abe would **never** have signed him to that $111M contract.

He did have huge revenue generating power when fans were essentially choosing between a team with no superstar or a team with one superstar.

There are diminishing returns with each additional superstar. Now, fans are choosing between a team with 1 superstar (Wall) and a team with one-and-a-half superstars (Wall plus a step-slower Arenas). I don't think the difference in fan appeal will make up for the additional $20M in salary.

[cdouglas]

I'm more excited about seeing how Arenas and Wall play together.

[fishercob]

One more thing: if GIlbert didn't have huge revenue generating power, Abe would **never** have signed him to that $111M contract.

He did have huge revenue generating power when fans were essentially choosing between a team with no superstar or a team with one superstar.

There are diminishing returns with each additional superstar. Now, fans are choosing between a team with 1 superstar (Wall) and a team with one-and-a-half superstars (Wall plus a step-slower Arenas). I don't think the difference in fan appeal will make up for the additional $20M in salary.

HA! Tell that to Pat Riley and Mickey Arison.

[nate33]

Whatever. You can twist my words if you want. Obviously, Miami is a different situation because they have 3 superstars who will inevitably compete for a championship every year. Do I really need to go back and amend my original statement with the clause: "Assuming a team isn't a contender..."?

[hands11]

While the thread my be redundant in some ways, it is a better title for what we have been posting across many threads.

Here is my last post for the "should we keep Gil thread " since that horse has been beaten to death.

For me, it's not all about a "Championship" as much as building a team that has a shot at one and building a franchise that you are proud to be a of because of the way the players play and the way the front office leads and sets the tone. It is usually a long road from an "organization" or lack there of, to being a top franchise "organization" For me, we have already been bless with the most important component. We have a quality owner who has the potential to be one of the best owners in the league. Everything is born of that. So with that, my best hopes have already been realized. And along with Ted, I see a quality GM, HC, Assistant HC and coach/leader on the court. Everything will fall into place based on that. This team/organization will soon be of the quality to get out of the first round. Once we are there, we will better know what we have, what we don't, and what is needed. No way to really tell until we are at least that good. Sure you can guess, but you don't really know what you have in players until they are put in that situation.

So I'm looking for a playoff this year. Once there, we can see what we really have. If Cleveland has shown us nothing the last two years, they showed us that the regular season is simply that. It doesn't get you deep in the playoffs even if you have the best record. That is something EFJ never realized either. You don't shoot all you ammo in the regular season, you keep some dray power for when it hatters.

Here is how I see it. ( from the other thread )

We have had two terrible years back to back, but in that time frame, we had lots of good thing happen that we have yet to see the result of. We have cleaned house and changed owners. There really only seems to be one remaining piece that I have concern about and that is us keeping Gil which I hope we do and it looks like we will.

Here is the list of good things we have accomplished and why fans should be pumped.

1-We got ride of EFJ and got the best coach we have seen here in many many many years.
2-We got ride of the bottle neck of GA, CB and AJ as our BIG THREE NO D - Is Dead
3-We got Dray solid minutes starting at PF where he was the focus and he excelled - long overdue
4-We got way under the cap and are in good position for whatever the new CBA brings
5-We got ride of dead wood and bad contracts - DSleezy, Mike James, AJ, ET, Ross
6-We got to see what our team would look like with a real PG(Liv) and PF(Dray) combo
7-We got the number 1 draft pick and selected what appears to be a mature leader great PG
8-We will no longer be running a team based on a SG as PG or at a min an AI type PG.
9-We drafted well and got some big players with upside.
10-We got our front offensive in order. New Owner with a long term plan, deep pockets, good image.

Of all these positive things that have happened, most can be credited to EG who accomplished most of these things while running a mostly rudderless ship without Abe or a misguided ship with Abe. The EFJ dump happened while Abe was still with us, but after that, he was operating in a difficult situation while the team was up for sell.

Hell, it was a touch and go there for a moment when we were not 100% sure Ted was going to get the team. Thank God that worked out the way it did. To me, that is the best thing that has happened to this franchise.

If you weed through all the things that have happened, there is lots of good stuff in there and the two most import are

(1) the team has a new owner and it is Ted. A guy who is youngish. He has experience owning a sport franchise more specifically the Cap who have turned it around through his leadership. He has money. He has a plan. He is good in front of a camera. Getting Ted is more important than getting Wall. But we didn't get one or the other, we got both.

(2) We got Wall - We got the #1 pick in the draft from the #5 spot. The BB Gods are shinning on us.

Just these two things along is a reason to be very very excited about the future of our team. EG under Teds leadership I believe is going to give us the best of what EG has done in the past without the moves happening that people didn't like. We will see more moves like not overpaying Hughes, Jarvis or Jefferies, and less moves like overpaying AJ, DS and Gil or trading our #5 for MM and Foye and missing out on a player like DeJuan Blair because we sold the pick for cash. Thats for you CCJ

I still believe the worst of what we saw happen with Abe and EG was greatly influence by Abe. I kind of view it as EG GMing with one hand tied behind his back. Who believes Ted would hire EFJ as the head coach, and then hire his GM ? I can't see that happening. That one move alone wasted many years in our rebuild by setting up complete dysfunction in the organization chain of command and by trying to build assets to support a coach that wasn't about defense. It had us building a loosing team because a team without defense being as important if not more important than offense is not going to win deep in the playoffs. Well we fixed that problem.

Does anyone here really believe if it was Ted and Ernie, that we could have sold the Blair pick ?
Do you really think we would have signed DSleezy bidding against no body ?

This league is to competitive to make mistakes and under Abe as owner, there is a long history of not only mistakes, but big costly mistakes. From many years Wes Unseld as a key front office person or coach to dumping our only decent GM in recent memory ( Nash ) to letting go of Wallace and Wallace.

This is new day and it ALL STARTS WITH TED being the owner of our team.

Again, most view EG as a decent GM with some questionable moves. I like his patience. I like most of his selections. Dray, McGee, etc. Even DS was a good addition for one year for almost nothing given our situation. It was the resigning of him longer term that was the wrong move. Well, again, imagine EGs good stuff with less of his back moves. I believe that is what we have in Ted and EG so I have more faith then ever that we will make more right moves than before.

Then add to that they have Flip. Then add we have Wall.

It is a great day to be a Wizards fan. We are finally REALLY REBUILDING. We have a solid foundation for the first time in over 25 years. I never believed in the first rebuild with Abe, EG, EFJ and Gil but

I believe in Ted, EG, Flip, Sam and Wall. That matches against the best that is out there.