Jeff Green

[rrini]

Jeff Green is the perfect player the Wizards should target next offseason. He plays defense can score and is still very young an definitley improve. He went to Georgetown which means he like the area. And Oklahoma City won't be able to afford him after resigning Kevin Durant to the maximum. He can average around what Caron Butler averaged for the Wizards in the good old days. Probably around 20 points and 7 rebounds. I think he is worth around 11 million per year

Your thoughts?

[nate33]

Jeff Green is a decent role player, but a bit of a tweener. He's not worth any more than the MLE. I wouldn't touch him for $11M. That's insane.

[rrini]

Jeff Green can guard 3's and 4's doesn't make him a tweener. He's not a decent role player its just he doesn't get often because he has durant and westbrook. Why would he almost make the USA team if he is a decent role player. Maybe no 11 million but around that probably 10

[no D in Hibachi]

Jeff Green could never average 20 ppg on a winning team. His efficiency, or lack thereof is startling. He'd have to be a very high usage player to get 20 ppg, which equals a crappy team. Green is a is a better shooting Jared Jeffries: he can guard 3's and 4's, but not really well. Why would Javele McGee almost make team USA if his career averages are 6 and 4 and has proven over the last two years that he is basically worthless defensively and has no reliable offensive moves? Team USA inclusion holds as much water as NFL pro-bowl selections.

That said, it seems within the scope of EG to overvalue a guy like Green and drop a good chunk of the cap space on him. I mean he was hot after Josh Childress before Phoenix made a big mistake.

[sfam]

I'd dump more than the MLE on him, but not much. I could see a 7 mil per year deal.

[pancakes3]

interesting situation with jeff green. if we lock him into a 5+ year deal we can probably get away with paying him less.

also, there's no tweener to his game. to me, he's a prototypical SF. 6'9 size who can stroke the 3, defend both perimeter and post oriented players, has a great offensive game in the 5-15 ft area (remember that TRAVEL he got away with in the NCAA tourney?), and is humble to boot.

i guess it depends on how each person values him. to me, he's actually a better SF than butler based on size alone. i wouldn't be too sure that green couldn't drop 20 if given the green light. he scored 15 this season despite only going to the line 3 times, and deferring to durant. 7 mil would be fair for his talents (now), 10 mil would be overpaying but is it really overpaying when everyone else is also overpaying? such is the nature of the free agency game. the irrationalities and lack of information fudge the salaries a little.

he's no less of a SF than howard was before the pot stigma and the injuries got to him, or butler before 2.5 seasons of LOSING jaded us. he's a tier below pierce, but i don't see him as being any less capable a SF than ariza, hedo, and a host of other guys getting paid 10 mil/year.

otoh we could dump 5 mil on a guy like outlaw and really only be marginally worse off. the problem is that the 4-8 seeds in the east are only marginally better than each other to begin with.

[sfam]

^ I would agree that Green should be watched this season to see if he continues to improve. If so, perhaps more than 7 mil might be warranted. The more I think about Green at our SF position, the more I'm comfortable with it. But I do see him as more than a tier below Pierce. He's a good complementary piece - he won't be our #2, for instance.

[Kanyewest]

The Wizards would have to overpay to get Jeff Green... no thanks.

[montestewart]

The Wizards would have to overpay to get Jeff Green... no thanks.

Yes. If you overpay for building blocks along the way, it's a lot harder to overpay for the final touches.

[tkunit]

I like Green but I wouldn't go sign him after watching him disappear against LA

[Dat2U]

The Wizards would have to overpay to get Jeff Green... no thanks.

Agreed, Green will be paid like a building block when in reality he's a role player.

[dangermouse]

He is no tweener. The only reason he gets the tweener lable is because OKC play him out of position. And the only reason they do that is to let their star play his natural position (Durant at SF, as opposed to SG), and because Green's defense is passable enough to guard some guys in the post. Hes a pure SF with good size. When he was drafted, Sonics/notSonics fans hoped he could develop into a David West clone, but I think this was a bad move as this guy is better off going back to his natural position, and I think thats part of why he will be available.

How much better is Jeff to a guy like Thornton or Howard though? I'm going to say he could be as good as prime Howard but with Thornton's size, and hes younger than Howard. Hes more athletic than he looks and he has good hops.

Do I want to go after him? No. We would have to overpay for him really, and if we are going to overpay for any position I think it should be at C to get one of Perkins or Gasol.

[nate33]

He is no tweener. The only reason he gets the tweener lable is because OKC play him out of position. And the only reason they do that is to let their star play his natural position (Durant at SF, as opposed to SG), and because Green's defense is passable enough to guard some guys in the post. Hes a pure SF with good size.

Fair enough. I take back my "tweener" criticism. That said, he's still only a role player. Here are the per-36 numbers of Jeff Green along with a bunch of other easily-obtainable role playing SF's:

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
green,jeff   14.6  5.8  1.6  1.2  0.8  1.6 .502 .531 13.8
wright,dorel 12.7  5.9  2.3  1.3  0.8  1.3 .536 .567 14.6
williams,mar 12.3  6.2  1.4  1.0  0.7  1.1 .485 .540 13.0
casspi,omri  14.6  6.4  1.8  1.0  0.3  1.8 .502 .529 13.1
dudley,jared 11.8  4.9  2.0  1.4  0.3  1.2 .582 .612 13.5
barnes,matt  12.4  7.7  2.3  1.0  0.5  1.9 .546 .576 13.6
gomes,ryan   13.1  5.5  2.0  1.0  0.3  1.5 .497 .528 12.1
chandler,wil 15.3  5.4  2.1  0.7  0.8  1.7 .502 .534 13.8
pietrus,mick 13.9  4.6  1.0  1.1  0.7  1.5 .540 .555 11.8
ariza,trevor 14.5  5.5  3.7  1.7  0.5  2.2 .462 .488 13.4

Would anybody pay $11M a year for one of these guys?

[MJG]

Count me in with everyone who thinks Green is going to be overpaid, probably very overpaid, so no thanks to him. Honestly, unless he shows more improvement this season, I think even an MLE contract is probably a bit too rich for what he brings to the table. Maybe a contract that averages out to the MLE is fine, but one that starts there is going to make you regret it after the second or third year. I definitely get an Ariza-type vibe, except I'm not sure Green will ever be as good as Ariza was at his best.

[verbal8]

Count me in with everyone who thinks Green is going to be overpaid, probably very overpaid, so no thanks to him. Honestly, unless he shows more improvement this season, I think even an MLE contract is probably a bit too rich for what he brings to the table. Maybe a contract that averages out to the MLE is fine, but one that starts there is going to make you regret it after the second or third year. I definitely get an Ariza-type vibe, except I'm not sure Green will ever be as good as Ariza was at his best.

I think Jeff Green will end up getting overpaid. If the right team overpays him, he could be the "final piece". If the wrong team overpays he will quickly become a burdensome contract. I would not be surprised to see a lot of trade rumors floating around about him.

I think OKC likely lets him walk and looks for more of a true PF with a lower long-term cost. I think the only way he stays in OKC is if he signs an extension with a significant home-team discount.

[dropshot001]

The Wizards would have to overpay to get Jeff Green... no thanks.

exactly. if you overpay now then you won't have the cap space and flexibility to pursue other guys down the road

[fugop]

I love Jeff Green, seems like a great guy and all, but unless someone can explain why his team is 10 pts/100 posessions worse defensively with him on the court, there's no way I'd want to acquire him.

http://www.82games.com/0910/09OKC12.HTM

Nick Collison appears to have been his main backup, and the team was infinitely better with Collison on the court.

[dangermouse]

I love Jeff Green, seems like a great guy and all, but unless someone can explain why his team is 10 pts/100 posessions worse defensively with him on the court, there's no way I'd want to acquire him.

http://www.82games.com/0910/09OKC12.HTM

Nick Collison appears to have been his main backup, and the team was infinitely better with Collison on the court.

I submit that this is because Green is a SF playing out of position, whilst Collison is an above average defender and is actually a PF (that sometimes gets used as an undersized C).

I honestly think that it is hard to judge how good Green is and how good he could become because of how he is used, and wether being used out of position has stunted his growth or not. It makes it hard to scout the guy. I have a feeling that on another team, playing his natural position, he could put up better stats. I think the only way we could know for sure is if Durant goes down and he has to step in and play some wing this year.

Like I said before, I'd rather we used cap space to shore up the hole at C (with one of Gasol or Perk, I like both and they are both young and will be available, we'd have to overpay but in the long run it will be worth it). Unless we get a starting calibre C in McGee/Seraphin or through the draft, then maybe it might be worth offering Green a reasonable contract, he might surprise.

[Brenice]

Why is Jeff Green NOT a tweener? Because he can make a jump shot or 3? Jamison can do that. Rasheed can do that? They are tweeners too.

What makes Green a tweener is because he is not a natural small forward. His handle is not SF level, and he is better posting than facing, with the ball in his hands. Does he go to the basket like a prototype SF?

[DCZards]

Got to agree with most of what's been said in this thread about Green. Paying Jeff more than $6-$7 mil a year would be overpaying for him. But Green is someone to keep a close eye on this upcoming season. Given his high b'ball IQ and solid work ethic I expect him to continue to improve and maximize his talent, which is something that a lot of NBA players fail to do.

Jeff turned out to be surprisingly good player in college after a somewhat unremarkable high school career and I got a gut feeling that with his character and approach to the game Jeff is going to turn out to be much better NBA player than most of us expect him to be.