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Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 1:43 pm
by willbcocks
I thought I would wait a few more games before making this thread, but after reading tonight's game thread about LA and hearing others offering some first evaluations, I'll offer my own. Are Wall and Gil effective together? Right now, I think not.

Reading through the last few pages of comments, many people seemed to take the LA game as proof that Gil and Wall can play well together. I found this interesting because I had the exact opposite impression--this game made me believe even more that the two of them are not effective together.

The Wiz were pretty awful in the first half. Then they made their first run in the third when Wall came out. He replaced Gil with the wiz down 5. The lakers got the lead back up a bit, gil came back in and eventually the wiz made their second run. During that run, both were in the game, but it's not like they were playing off each other. Gil was playing like crap and Wall had gone into beast mode. Wall did hit gil for two assists, but one was a set play out of a timeout that was perfectly called by Flip--hardly an indication of how the two will fare in normal half court sets. The rest of the run was made possible by Wall's beasting, scoring himself and setting up Nick and Booker.

Both runs were made possible because one of the two took responsibility--Gil when Wall was out, then Wall when he was beasting. Wall has trouble deferring to Gil--if they are both in the game and Wall is not beasting, he will be standing around a lot and hurting the team. If Wall is beasting, the team will of course do well, since Wall can already play like an elite player at times, but Gil becomes fairly irrelevant. The team is probably most consistent when Wall is out and Gil is in, but we play at our highest level with beast Wall AND he is our future, so keeping him on the bench is not a good option.

These problems are particularly pronounced on the fast break. One would think that, despite our rebounding problems, we could do well pushing the ball with Gil and Wall in the game. The problem -- well, one problem, as turnovers in the form of Gil's crazy passes and Wall's out of controlitude is another problem -- is that both players push the ball with the ball in their hands. Both players go back to get the ball from the bigs. Both come back, and as a result there is no one to go down the court and create spacing. I watch Wall in particular get frustrated when he doesn't get the ball off rebounds. And it makes sense that Gil is the one to get down court and spot up as he has the better shot. But they have shown no ability to play off each other on the break.

Nor are they all that effective in the half court. Wall is not effective off the ball and Gil shoots best off the dribble. Neither is great moving without the ball. Gil, to be fair, tries, but he simply is not reggie miller running off of our half-assed screens. Wall does nothing.

On defense the two have worked well enough--at least they are not compounding each other's problems. But on offense? I'm not seeing it fellas.

Pray with me that Gil can be moved. :pray:

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 2:15 pm
by jimij
I'm still not certain how effective they will be playing off each other but I'm willing to give them the rest of the season to find out, not just the handful of minutes they've had together so far.

I will strongly disagree that any Wiz runs last night were because either Wall or Gil checked out. I thought the runs were a direct result of having Booker/Seraphin in the game instead of our defensively challenged bigs (yi/mcgee/neck I'm looking at you).

Booker did something that virtually no one on this team has been doing all year which is agressively cutting through the lane on offense to receive passes and Seraphin is already our best big at setting picks. These two helped our guards on offensive by their play without the ball and were an enormous improvement on defense. I loved seeing Booker sumo wrestling with Artest in the 2nd half last night - its nice to see Wizards big men not backing down from a physical challenge for once.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 2:28 pm
by willbcocks
Sorry, let me clarify, as you are correct that Seraphin and Booker (and Young too I might add) were instrumental in last night's runs. My point was that good play by the Wall/Gil combo was not responsible for our comeback.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 2:32 pm
by Hoopalotta
It'll probably be rather difficult to drum up enough interest to get the ball rolling on this discussion around these parts.

I'm not going to be able to see the Lakers game for a few days yet (and I'll be behind on the Sac-Town game too), so I'll chime in later.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 2:44 pm
by hands11
I'm just happy we are finally behind people complaining about why they arent starting together.

Injuries had a lot to do with it. I did a long post of this. I think Flip did well managing GIls come back. I had a strong feeling the LA game would be the game that we saw them start together.

As for evaluating it. I liked it. Both looked focused. Both ran the point well and both played shooting guard well. Walls shot looks like it has returned. It looked smooth. I don't think that happened by accident. I think it was the result of patience and work by both and the coaches. They all desire credit.

Wall does the end to end fast breaks while Gil still worked toward the basket on half court sets, which he wasn't doing earlier in the year.

Then Wall went out and Gil ran the show. Then Gil went out and Wall did. Then they played together again.

38 minutes each looks good. And Nick is a great compliment to those two.

Should be very effective. Guard play seems to be rounding out nicely.

Onto the next issue.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 2:45 pm
by Nivek
While EVERYTHING is confounded by the overall lack of talent -- especially up front -- the data through Monday (so not including last night's game) suggests the Wizards are better when Wall and Arenas are on the floor together.

Code: Select all

STAT    WALL w/ WALL w/o
        ARENAS  ARENAS
MIN     145     221
OFF     0.99    0.97
DEF     1.07    1.09
+/-48   -5.0    -8.3
W%      .471    .424


Not sure whether the Offense & Defense numbers at 82games are per 100 possessions or per 48 minutes. W% is whether the lineup outscores the opponent in a game during their minutes on the floor. So, if Arenas and Wall play together for 24 minutes in a game and outscore the opponent by a point, that's a W. If they get outscored, it's an L.

I think the least of the Wizards problems right now is whether Arenas and Wall can play together. The bigger issue is the overall lack of good players.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 2:51 pm
by nate33
Nivek wrote:While EVERYTHING is confounded by the overall lack of talent -- especially up front -- the data through Monday (so not including last night's game) suggests the Wizards are better when Wall and Arenas are on the floor together.

Code: Select all

STAT    WALL w/ WALL w/o
        ARENAS  ARENAS
MIN     145     221
OFF     0.99    0.97
DEF     1.07    1.09
+/-48   -5.0    -8.3
W%      .471    .424


Not sure whether the Offense & Defense numbers at 82games are per 100 possessions or per 48 minutes. W% is whether the lineup outscores the opponent in a game during their minutes on the floor. So, if Arenas and Wall play together for 24 minutes in a game and outscore the opponent by a point, that's a W. If they get outscored, it's an L.

I think the least of the Wizards problems right now is whether Arenas and Wall can play together. The bigger issue is the overall lack of good players.

Kevin, do you have the number for Arenas w/o Wall?

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 3:09 pm
by willbcocks
Nivek wrote:
I think the least of the Wizards problems right now is whether Arenas and Wall can play together. The bigger issue is the overall lack of good players.


This may be true in the short run--even if we find the perfect lineup, we're still not a playoff team. But for this reason, I don't really care about the short run; Flips in game rotations, the relative merits of our current SFs, and what lineup maximizes the team's win% are all questions you ask when you are trying to make a playoff run.

In the long run, however, how effective Gil and Wall work together is a vitally important question. It affects how we treat arenas (if they don't fit, do we dump move him for a Rashard Lewis like player? If they do fit, do we not consider trading him at all?) and who we draft (I think drafting a sg is just as important as drafting a SF, but if you like the current duo, this becomes a less pressing need). Aside from player development of the guys we have, is anything under the FO's control more important to this organization's future?

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 3:23 pm
by Ruzious
I think they're going to get better playing together. You can have 2 guys who like to have the ball playing together - as long as one or both of them has catch and shoot ability. And it's always good to have 2 guys with the ability to penetrate, because that makes it easier to take advantage of matchups and share the burden - ala Gil and Hughes.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 3:49 pm
by tontoz
Nivek wrote:I think the least of the Wizards problems right now is whether Arenas and Wall can play together. The bigger issue is the overall lack of good players.


I don't think there is a lack of talent here. I think that there is plenty of talent but it isn't fully apparenty due to injuries/mismanagement/inexperience. I think this will become more apparent as the season goes on.

To the thread topic it was hard for me to pay a lot of attention to the Wall/Gil duo last night. I was trippin too much on the frontcourt situation and Young going nuts to pay much attention to them.

Offensively i think their effectiveness will depend heavily on Arenas using good judgement. He doesn't have to defer, he doesn't have to play like JRich, he just has to avoid forcing the act too much with plenty of time left on the clock. It is not necesary to go into iso mode as much as he used to playing next to a point guard who can create.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 3:57 pm
by Nivek
Here's the chart from above with two additions -- numbers for Arenas without Wall, and the Pythagorean wins for each category (what that kind of off/def differential would mean over an 82-game season).

Code: Select all

STAT    WALL w/ WALL w/o  ARENAS
        ARENAS  ARENAS  w/o WALL
MIN     145     221     219
OFF     0.99    0.97    1.05
DEF     1.07    1.09    1.11
+/-48   -5.0    -8.3    -5.7
W%      .471    .424    .424
PYTW    20.7    13.4    25.8



Again, I don't think the Wizards need to concern themselves with this issue right now. Worry about it down the road when/if the rest of the team gets good enough to make a difference. Plus, what should they do about it? Trading Arenas isn't an option yet. Trading Wall isn't an option. They're going to have to play together at least some of the time if they're both on the team.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 4:04 pm
by Nivek
tontoz wrote:
Nivek wrote:I think the least of the Wizards problems right now is whether Arenas and Wall can play together. The bigger issue is the overall lack of good players.


I don't think there is a lack of talent here. I think that there is plenty of talent but it isn't fully apparenty due to injuries/mismanagement/inexperience. I think this will become more apparent as the season goes on.


I didn't say there was a lack of talent -- so long as we're defining "talent" as the potential to become good basketball players. I said there is a lack of good players, and that should be obvious to anyone watching the games. (By "good," I mean "by NBA standards.") The Wizards players are not "good" right now by any reasonable measure. They may become good one day, if they improve.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 4:30 pm
by tontoz
Nivek wrote:
tontoz wrote:
Nivek wrote:I think the least of the Wizards problems right now is whether Arenas and Wall can play together. The bigger issue is the overall lack of good players.


I don't think there is a lack of talent here. I think that there is plenty of talent but it isn't fully apparenty due to injuries/mismanagement/inexperience. I think this will become more apparent as the season goes on.


I didn't say there was a lack of talent -- so long as we're defining "talent" as the potential to become good basketball players. I said there is a lack of good players, and that should be obvious to anyone watching the games. (By "good," I mean "by NBA standards.") The Wizards players are not "good" right now by any reasonable measure. They may become good one day, if they improve.


I obviously quoted the wrong part of your post. The first line was

While EVERYTHING is confounded by the overall lack of talent


At any rate i don't think we can fully evaluate the team until we see them healthy. Howard hasn't even played a game yet and most of the rotation has had injury issues at some point.

And Flip's rotations have been dubious. Playing Yi so many minutes cost them the game last night.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 5:03 pm
by Dat2U
willbcocks wrote:I thought I would wait a few more games before making this thread, but after reading tonight's game thread about LA and hearing others offering some first evaluations, I'll offer my own. Are Wall and Gil effective together? Right now, I think not.


Time will tell but the three things I pulled out of last nights game were this:

1. Yi's play makes me want to personally apologize to Kwame Brown & Wang Zhi-Zhi for having the nerve to compare Yi's game to theirs. Yi couldn't hold either's jock strap.

2. Booker & Seraphin need to replace ArmYi in the rotation. Not now, but right now.

3. While its too early to judge Arenas & Wall's effectiveness, offensively we looked far more explosive last night than at any point in the season with Wall & Hinrich or Arenas & Hinrich. Alot of that had to do with Young lighting it up but he's played well for the majority of the year. And this was against the best competition the NBA has to offer. We were non-competitive in every game thus far with a legit contender. Last night IMO was a huge step forward.

Right now its about figuring out the best tandem going forward for the rest of this year. We've had ample opportunity to see Hinrich in the starting lineup. It was time for a change and I'm glad Flip (er, Leonsis) made it.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 5:13 pm
by nate33
Nivek wrote:Here's the chart from above with two additions -- numbers for Arenas without Wall, and the Pythagorean wins for each category (what that kind of off/def differential would mean over an 82-game season).

Code: Select all

STAT    WALL w/ WALL w/o  ARENAS
        ARENAS  ARENAS  w/o WALL
MIN     145     221     219
OFF     0.99    0.97    1.05
DEF     1.07    1.09    1.11
+/-48   -5.0    -8.3    -5.7
W%      .471    .424    .424
PYTW    20.7    13.4    25.8



Interesting. If I'm reading this correctly, it's not so much that Arenas is better with Wall. It's merely that the team is better with Arenas than they are without him. When Arenas is paired with Hinrich (or Young), they do just as well as when he is paired with Wall. The only really bad combo is Wall without Arenas.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 5:22 pm
by Dat2U
nate33 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Here's the chart from above with two additions -- numbers for Arenas without Wall, and the Pythagorean wins for each category (what that kind of off/def differential would mean over an 82-game season).

Code: Select all

STAT    WALL w/ WALL w/o  ARENAS
        ARENAS  ARENAS  w/o WALL
MIN     145     221     219
OFF     0.99    0.97    1.05
DEF     1.07    1.09    1.11
+/-48   -5.0    -8.3    -5.7
W%      .471    .424    .424
PYTW    20.7    13.4    25.8



Interesting. If I'm reading this correctly, it's not so much that Arenas is better with Wall. It's merely that the team is better with Arenas than they are without him. When Arenas is paired with Hinrich (or Young), they do just as well as when he is paired with Wall. The only really bad combo is Wall without Arenas.


In other words, Hinrich sucks! :D

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 5:40 pm
by Nivek
tontoz wrote:I obviously quoted the wrong part of your post. The first line was

While EVERYTHING is confounded by the overall lack of talent


At any rate i don't think we can fully evaluate the team until we see them healthy. Howard hasn't even played a game yet and most of the rotation has had injury issues at some point.

And Flip's rotations have been dubious. Playing Yi so many minutes cost them the game last night.


Forgot I wrote that in the first line. All I meant in that first line is what I said later -- that the players aren't any good right now.

I disagree that we can't evaluate the team until everyone is healthy. The odds of that happening are pretty slim. Plus, Howard really shouldn't be part of the team's long-term plans. He's a stopgap until they can get the guy they really want at that spot.

I actually don't have many problems with Flip's rotations. I'd like more minutes for McGee and fewer for Yi, but it's not like he's operating from a position of strength. Most of the time, Flip is trying to decide between which guy is going to hurt the team least.

Plus, this IS a developmental season. Flip started Yi and gave him a chance to either perform well or...not. Yi was on the "not" side. It might have cost them the game, but they also learned something about Yi.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 5:46 pm
by Nivek
Regarding Hinrich: In 206 minutes with Wall, but not Arenas, the team is -13.0 per 48 minutes -- the differential of an 8-win team. In 195 with Arenast, but not Wall, the team is -4.7 per 48 -- the differential of a 26-win team. Maybe the real question is whether Wall and Hinrich should be playing together.

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 5:54 pm
by nate33
Dat2U wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Nivek wrote:Here's the chart from above with two additions -- numbers for Arenas without Wall, and the Pythagorean wins for each category (what that kind of off/def differential would mean over an 82-game season).

Code: Select all

STAT    WALL w/ WALL w/o  ARENAS
        ARENAS  ARENAS  w/o WALL
MIN     145     221     219
OFF     0.99    0.97    1.05
DEF     1.07    1.09    1.11
+/-48   -5.0    -8.3    -5.7
W%      .471    .424    .424
PYTW    20.7    13.4    25.8



Interesting. If I'm reading this correctly, it's not so much that Arenas is better with Wall. It's merely that the team is better with Arenas than they are without him. When Arenas is paired with Hinrich (or Young), they do just as well as when he is paired with Wall. The only really bad combo is Wall without Arenas.


In other words, Hinrich sucks! :D

No. Because Wall sucks too unless he has Arenas with him. The takeaway here is that Arenas is pretty good. (I wish he'd quit turning the ball over, though.)

Re: Evaluating the Wall/Gil Backcourt Duo

Posted: Wed Dec 8, 2010 6:02 pm
by clancy
Dat2U wrote:3. While its too early to judge Arenas & Wall's effectiveness, offensively we looked far more explosive last night than at any point in the season with Wall & Hinrich or Arenas & Hinrich. Alot of that had to do with Young lighting it up but he's played well for the majority of the year. And this was against the best competition the NBA has to offer. We were non-competitive in every game thus far with a legit contender. Last night IMO was a huge step forward.



I suspect we'll be competitive in most games if the 3 guards logging the most minutes shoot better than 50% and score 75 points.

I'm not sure this was more than a fortunate confluence of hot shooting nights, but I'll be happy if it is.

Also, we were competitive because we collectively destroyed their bench unit, almost to the same extent their starters destroyed us. (This isn't a slam on the starting lineup change - we likely would have been destroyed to a greater extent, leaving a bigger hole for the bench to climb out of - but we weren't competitive against their top unit overall.) I'm interested to see how this goes against a team without a championship caliber starting lineup. As long as we're matched against teams where our starters can hang, this could be very good.