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I know it doesn't matter how I feel.

Ted Leonsis is about as predicable as sunrise. I expect Wittman to be out and the rumor of D'Antoni coming in to be true. I don't think it is fair at all. I knocked Wittman a lot because of his losing record as a HC but that was before I saw each and every roster he had to work with.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/coa ... ra01c.html

On paper, Wittman's record looks bad.



It's very easy to say he can't finish better than 4th out of 5 or 6 teams, and the guy will win you about 25 games. But what takes a little digging is to see EXACTLY what Wittman had to work with each seaon.

This season, Wittman closed with 6 straight wins, but he didn't win until the trade made things better. The Wizards with Nene playing were 7-4. More importantly, by the end of the season Randy was coaching coachable players and everybody on the roster seemed to be embracing accountability and team play (except for Crawford with his volume shot approach). Randy was more like a .700 coach than a .300 coach. Was this season a fluke?

Look at Wittman's teams coached before the Wizards.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2000.html
The 99-00 Cavs had fat Shawn Kemp, Lamond Murray, Bob Sura, Andre Miller, Brevin Knight and a bunch of bad players. That team won 32 games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2001.html
The 00-01 Cavs were similar. They lost Kemp and Sura and gained Clarence Weatherspoon and Chris Gatling. Big Z was injured again that season. They won 30 games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2007.html
Six long years between head coaching jobs, Wittman inherited Minnesota post Flip. Dwayne Casey had been fired mid-season. Randy inherited KG, with Ricky Davis as his next best player. Rounding out that team were Mark Blount, Trenton Hassell, rookie Randy Foye (who was then known as the guy the Timberwolves mistakingly traded Brandon Roy away for), and Mike James as their PG. Bad team won 32 games. (They were only 12-30 under Randy but were 20-20 under Casey.)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2008.html
The next season, Randy had to be the coach during a rebuild year. KG was traded for young Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, and Gerald (I'm-not-ready-for-the-NBA) Green. Gomes was second to Jefferson in minutes played. Marko Jaric was next and he was the PG. McCants, Telfair, Craig Smith, and Randy Foye were all less than 2 years in the league. VETERAN PRESENCE: Antoine Walker at the end of the line after Dallas let him go. This team won 22 games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... 9/gamelog/
The next season, before he got fired, Wittman started Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, Mike Miller, Corey Brewer, and Randy Gomes. Kevin Love was their rookie off the bench. Wittman lasted to 4-15.

A lot of you don't really like numbers. I suspect my posts are too labor-intensive and too much reading for some. But others really do consider my points, good and bad, and give them thought. I appreciate that.

My conclusion is I believe this past season Randy did an EXCELLENT job. Goodness gracious the man was better than Flip Saunders with this group! Randy had one blind spot IMO, and that was with Jordan Crawford. Otherwise, what didn't Wittman get right? Even Jordan showed a lot of improvement and he played some exciting and at times, very good basketball.

Randy Wittman is a guy who just happens to have the misfortune of inheriting crappy lineups and rebuilding plans. This gig with the Wizards is no different. However, I doubt he has coached a team to 6 straight wins and I know this is the most talent on one team he has ever had to work with.

The man deserves to be coach at least one year.

I am a huge Dave Joerger guy, and that is the one coach I'm afraid I'd be glad to see besides Wittman. Otherwise, I think Wittman has good chemistry with these players and he's coaching defense better than "7 Seconds or Less" Coach D'A will.

Just my two cents worth. Look at what Randy has made of what he has to work with.

He deserves it I agree, he's done a great job.

At the least, I'd hope he stays on here as an assistant for D'Antoni.

Oh God, the strain, too many numbers, I am not prepared to read so much.

Also you should know better than to conflate defense and pace, D'Antoni's teams haven't been particularly bad defensively. Anyway Randy did a good job and I tend to have a very low opinion of the degree to which a coaching influences a team's on-court performance so in not cocking up rotations or doing things like let Andray play he seems to be doing a good job. Also managed to draw a more than credible defensive performance out of the team, which is probably more coaching and scheme dependent than offense anyway. I tend to be much more concerned with front office personnel than with the coaching staff because I think simple roster composition and quality vastly outweighs systemic factors but at the very least Randy doesn't seem to do much damage and even relatively minor details like the breakdown of shots taken (more threes and interior shots, fewer two point jumpers, may have been significantly related to Not Playing Andray) were more sensible under him.

Also thank you for reminding me of Ricky Davis, I forgot that happened.

I was skimming through this long damn post when I came on this boldfaced line

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:A lot of you don't really like numbers. I suspect my posts are too labor-intensive and too much reading for some.

and I wondered how you knew I was skimming. Feeling guilty once I was busted, I read through the whole thing. If that was labor intensive for me to read, I'm sure it was more so for you to write.

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:But others really do consider my points, good and bad, and give them thought. I appreciate that.

Well, sometimes I do that. You guilted me into reading the entire post. Good post.

Wittman's record looks like that of someone who keeps getting called on when everything's going down the s**tter and the bosses say, "Let's give it to that guy. Can't be any worse than the last guy." Typically, that's not an ideal situation to walk into, but this time, he actually looks a bit better than the last guy. I wanted EG and Wittman and the medical staff and G-Wiz and G-Man and Big Tigger (and on and on) gone. I wanted change I could believe in. Wittman staying for another year doesn't bother me as much as EG, but that's I guess pretty faint praise.

How many late season runs has this team been on that has given everyone false hope?

Witt did a stand up job but I gotta take every thing with a grain salt. Especially considering all the teams we faced who were playing out the string.

Now I'm hearing "keep the coach", "we don't need much" and "let's keep Mason, Martin, etc..." and I can't but think that were all looking at this with rose colored glasses.

Dat2U wrote:How many late season runs has this team been on that has given everyone false hope?

Witt did a stand up job but I gotta take every thing with a grain salt. Especially considering all the teams we faced who were playing out the string.

Now I'm hearing "keep the coach", "we don't need much" and "let's keep Mason, Martin, etc..." and I can't but think that were all looking at this with rose colored glasses.

Dat, I think you've suffered too many losses almost like a soldier who has combat stress. You think you're still in the war and you're home. The noise you hear is fireworks, not mortars or grenades going off. (Sorry for the war analogy from someone who has not been under hostile fire).

I watched the last 20-something games, mostly, pretty closely. I watched games before those where they defeated OKC and the game where they destroyed Portland. Even before the trade I saw some spirited game with playoff-bound teams like Indiana and Philadelphia. The Wizards beat Orlando when Big Baby was on a hot streak and with Ryan Anderson, a coveted FA playing the whole game, along with Jameer Nelson. They were not playing out the string. When the Wizards went up to Chicago and won, the Bulls weren't playing out the string. Even if the Heat were resting starters, that second game they got stomped by 34 points, with the pride of their bench players on the line. Battier, Miller, Chalmers, Haslem and a guy who hadn't started in three years, Eddy Curry was their lineup. Washington blew them away each of four quarters, and that's after beating them in Miami. Check their lineup vs the Wizards' in the box below:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 60WAS.html

That was just one game, but I've looked at a pretty good metric that details how players have performed the past 23 games, since the trade. James Singleton's 12 games may be an outlier for being too good. Vesely and Chris Singleton, along with Nene and Wall had very effective time on the court. Points produced reveals they were valuable assets to the Wizards. Believe it or not, Seraphin's offense was great but the team had some struggles while he was on the court. Yet, the truth is only Blatche and Crawford really hurt the Wizards--which is obvious to most. What is less obvious is that Mason was ineffectual but Martin, Evans, and even bad-shooting Almond were assets. See for yourself below:

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/splits?team= ... F26%2F2012

Looking at the team game logs, the last 20 games the Wizard went 9-11. One of the losses was a two-point loss to the Hawks. Another was two-point loss to the Pacers. A third was the loss to the Pistons when Stuckey hit a dagger over Wall. Three very close losses away from the Wizards being 12-8 over those last 20 games.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... 2/gamelog/

I think the Wizards are very legitimately at least a middling, close-to-.500 team now, post-Nene trade. They have good chemistry, young guys who are coachable, and barring injury to Wall and Nene, they're going to get better.

Wittman is just coach but the team seems to be responding and they're on an upward trajectory.

By nerdnumbers and by what I see, all the Wizards need to do is move Crawford and Blatche and upgrade their athleticism and go-to shooting with range on the wings; and also improve their rebounding. Wall has to really work on his outside shot. SG needs upgrading as does SF, but towards season's end, Chris Singleton showed more and more ability to hit the open three.

I like the team and I like what Wittman has done so far.

He did a good job and deserves consideration, but I'd go for SVG first. IMO SVG is a top 5 coach.

Dat2U wrote:How many late season runs has this team been on that has given everyone false hope?

Witt did a stand up job but I gotta take every thing with a grain salt. Especially considering all the teams we faced who were playing out the string.

Now I'm hearing "keep the coach", "we don't need much" and "let's keep Mason, Martin, etc..." and I can't but think that were all looking at this with rose colored glasses.

+1

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:

Dat2U wrote:How many late season runs has this team been on that has given everyone false hope?

Witt did a stand up job but I gotta take every thing with a grain salt. Especially considering all the teams we faced who were playing out the string.

Now I'm hearing "keep the coach", "we don't need much" and "let's keep Mason, Martin, etc..." and I can't but think that were all looking at this with rose colored glasses.

Dat, I think you've suffered too many losses almost like a soldier who has combat stress. You think you're still in the war and you're home. The noise you hear is fireworks, not mortars or grenades going off. (Sorry for the war analogy from someone who has not been under hostile fire).

+1 CCJ

It seems fairly obvious to me that this isn't merely the usual late season run against teams playing out the string. This team has turned the corner. We will no longer be a laughingstock team that will give away 30 games a year due solely to poor effort and stupidity. I'm not saying we have dominant talent or anything, but we're not going to beat ourselves anymore. If you want to beat us, you better play well. It's a credit to Wittman and to the exodus of The Knuckleheads.

This team will win at least 35 games next year if Wall and Nene miss no more than 10 and 20 games respectively. If we address our problems at wing this offseason (or if we draft Davis), we should be around .500.

I expect that if the Wizards land Davis, they will in addition at least try to make some consolidation and roster balancing trades (offering C. Singleton, Crawford, Booker, 2nds, and even Vesely or Seraphin if the return is particularly attractive) or lower-end FA signings to address the shortage of efficient shooting wings and add veteran depth at PG. No guarantee, but I can easily imagine good return there added to Davis resulting in at least a 44-48 win team.

I don't see another year of Wittman being the make-or-break choke point in any of this right now.

If our choice was only between Wittman and D'Antoni, I'd rather stick with Wittman. I like D'Antoni, he wasn't to blame for the crappy roster composition and Stoudamire's injuries in NY. Like Ed says, his teams have been respectable defensively but get a bad rep due to pace factors. But he uses a system that's different than traditional NBA offenses, and isn't necessarily the best for Wall. With Wittman the themes have been professionalism and attention to defense, exactly what our organization needs after the last few years. I don't think those themes are a mirage, even if the statistics over the last quarter of the season may be. Build a base with Witt, then consider something else if we stagnate.

That said, if Stan Van Gundy is available, it might be hard to pass on him. His only knock is that 2 star players have soured on his methods.

Hey Nate

You just merged another thread that was a double.

So why does this one live. We already started this conversation in here. This is just a continuation of that. I know CCJ is one of our favs around here but we have been debating if Whitman deserves to stay for month now.

Who should be the next Wizards Coach.
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1149023

If it just about Randy, we have this.

The Randy Whitman Thread.
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1155475

nate33 wrote:+1 CCJ

It seems fairly obvious to me that this isn't merely the usual late season run against teams playing out the string. This team has turned the corner. We will no longer be a laughingstock team that will give away 30 games a year due solely to poor effort and stupidity. I'm not saying we have dominant talent or anything, but we're not going to beat ourselves anymore. If you want to beat us, you better play well. It's a credit to Wittman and to the exodus of The Knuckleheads.

This team will win at least 35 games next year if Wall and Nene miss no more than 10 and 20 games respectively. If we address our problems at wing this offseason (or if we draft Davis), we should be around .500.

I'll agree with a caveat. The team that finished out with Shaun Livingston, Blatche, McGee and Young and guys like Mike Miller and Fab Oberto was not nearly as talented as this version but was also playing legitimately good ball. That wasn't a fluke.

But this does appear to be rooted in something sustainable. Whitman is clearly pushing the right buttons. Nene has been the catalyst and the leader and yet he's kept him coming off the bench. That's a coach who's got the pulse of his locker room.

There are a handful of significant developments down the stretch.

Wall has gone from shoot first to pass first. Other players are getting more involved.

Two weeks after Seraphin emerges, Vesely busts out as well. That guy is a pure winner and a difference maker. He's finding his NBA game and he'll get much stronger, but he plays fearless basketball and makes plays that win games. 20lbs of muscle (and he works hard and has the frame) could make Vesely a monster.

The post play has been the major story. Nene has been great on both ends and yet Seraphin has been almost as good. Seraphin's offensive game is getting closer to that of a high end NBA center and he is also not that far from being an elite NBA post defender. Between them and Vesely, they are getting about 40 easy points per game and any basketball team will win a lot of games with that formula. And yet they've also completely transformed the defense. Basketball is a much easier game when you can guard the post.

There are other developments, but these have been the main drivers and they won't go away.

Suddenly, the Wizards future IS looking to be close at hand. If the Wizards land Anthony Davis they would be in the running for best front court talent in the NBA. Either way, all of sudden the Wizards look very deep at the 4/5. Adding an MKG or Beal on the perimeter and have plenty of room to sign a top end free agent? With Booker, Crawford and even Blatche (yes, him) as a reclamation project, the Wiz are suddenly looking like they may have the assets to pull off a major consolidation trade.

The Wizards could win more than 35 next year. Wall blew a couple of those games immediately post-trade that they should have won that could have had this team >.500 since the trade.

I would have said there was a "0.0%" chance of Whitman coming back 2 weeks ago, but I think it is or should be a real possibility.

Witt is fools gold. I still hate the system. Fans always fall for things like this. They hate him one second, has a nice string and we decide to keep him. Then 15 games in next year we are saying that we’re idiots for not getting a top notch coach in the Offseason. I dont trust him. Also, you can be good and still not good enough. SVG is good but the Heat probably still dont win a title if Riley doesnt coach. Witt is not the guy to take us to a title. Can you imagine him winning one? Hell No so lets move on.

gesa2 wrote:That said, if Stan Van Gundy is available, it might be hard to pass on him. His only knock is that 2 star players have soured on his methods.

Maybe he is Lex Luther, but he is a pretty good basketball coach.

This isn't college football where the head coach is an important motivator(Phil Jackson maybe an exception), the players don't have to like him, they just have to perform for him. SVG has had talent to work with, but that isn't guaranteed to produce results.

At the beginning of the rebuild he may have been a poor choice, but I think the Wizards are realistically in the beginning of a 5 year window. The window might be a little longer if they create a contender, a little shorter if they make some bad roster moves. That basically is one good coaching run.

JonathanJoseph wrote:

nate33 wrote:+1 CCJ

It seems fairly obvious to me that this isn't merely the usual late season run against teams playing out the string. This team has turned the corner. We will no longer be a laughingstock team that will give away 30 games a year due solely to poor effort and stupidity. I'm not saying we have dominant talent or anything, but we're not going to beat ourselves anymore. If you want to beat us, you better play well. It's a credit to Wittman and to the exodus of The Knuckleheads.

This team will win at least 35 games next year if Wall and Nene miss no more than 10 and 20 games respectively. If we address our problems at wing this offseason (or if we draft Davis), we should be around .500.

I'll agree with a caveat. The team that finished out with Shaun Livingston, Blatche, McGee and Young and guys like Mike Miller and Fab Oberto was not nearly as talented as this version but was also playing legitimately good ball. That wasn't a fluke.

But this does appear to be rooted in something sustainable. Whitman is clearly pushing the right buttons. Nene has been the catalyst and the leader and yet he's kept him coming off the bench. That's a coach who's got the pulse of his locker room.

There are a handful of significant developments down the stretch.

Wall has gone from shoot first to pass first. Other players are getting more involved.

Two weeks after Seraphin emerges, Vesely busts out as well. That guy is a pure winner and a difference maker. He's finding his NBA game and he'll get much stronger, but he plays fearless basketball and makes plays that win games. 20lbs of muscle (and he works hard and has the frame) could make Vesely a monster.

The post play has been the major story. Nene has been great on both ends and yet Seraphin has been almost as good. Seraphin's offensive game is getting closer to that of a high end NBA center and he is also not that far from being an elite NBA post defender. Between them and Vesely, they are getting about 40 easy points per game and any basketball team will win a lot of games with that formula. And yet they've also completely transformed the defense. Basketball is a much easier game when you can guard the post.

There are other developments, but these have been the main drivers and they won't go away.

Suddenly, the Wizards future IS looking to be close at hand. If the Wizards land Anthony Davis they would be in the running for best front court talent in the NBA. Either way, all of sudden the Wizards look very deep at the 4/5. Adding an MKG or Beal on the perimeter and have plenty of room to sign a top end free agent? With Booker, Crawford and even Blatche (yes, him) as a reclamation project, the Wiz are suddenly looking like they may have the assets to pull off a major consolidation trade.

The Wizards could win more than 35 next year. Wall blew a couple of those games immediately post-trade that they should have won that could have had this team >.500 since the trade.

I would have said there was a "0.0%" chance of Whitman coming back 2 weeks ago, but I think it is or should be a real possibility.

Great post, JJ.

All I am saying is let Randy coach a talented team for a while and see if he's got what it takes to not only sustain what they've got going, but improve on it. Ted preaches continuity and patience with young players. The best way to sustain that is NOT to go get a coach who has a big ego and who has a reputation, and also who has not built a rapport with the players.

It could be D'Antoni only has a good record because he coached Nash, Stoudemire, Marion, etc when they were at the top of their games. SVG had a good run in Miami and he coached good talent to the finals, when Howard had outside shooters and floor leader who could still play at a high level. Rashard and Hedo were clicking the year Jameer Nelson was an all star. Surely, SVG is a good coach but he had talent. JVG had talent in New York as well.

JJ's post shows what is going right.

My entire point is class and decency is due a classy, decent coach. I want Joerger but even I would keep Wittman one more year. Randy reached these guys. He took a S--T job and ended up smelling like a rose. I forgave all that I hated over EGs reign. I forgot why I hated the Nene trade when it went down. I believe Wittman needs to be able to show if he's a legit good coach. Those other guys always had Ferarris or race horses. Randy's been given Vegas, Pintos, Yugos, and other hoopty/beaters to roll with. Give Wittman keys to the Porsche next season and see if he remains humble and classy. Wall is getting better now. Don't get yet another coach. Nene is happy. Don't risk a personality conflict. Nene may hate SVG more than Dwight down the road.

It's all about chemistry and timing.

The current situation with Coach Witt reminds me of what happened with the Indianapolis Pacers last year. The players were dealing with a negative coach who was fired mid-season and they rallied around the replacement coach and lobbied for him to keep his job. I think Witt might get a two-year deal with team-option on the 2nd.

I'm indifferent. Randy has shown a willingness to scrap the Flip system and play to his team's strengths which has now become the low post with Nene and Seraphin.. as well as the pick and roll with bigs who know how to set screens.

I'd prefer a young upstart though

I tend to agree with Dat; we always seem to go on some late season improvement over the last ... (enter random number) of games... Blatche seemingly improved 2 years ago, better D last year, 6 game winning streak this year... And then the next year we see no improvement whatsoever...

Whitmann has done a great job by benching Dray and improving D, I'm still sceptical though... He should stay coach until we find a upgrade over this coming season...

Sent from my HTC One X using Tapatalk 2

Witt has change this team, one of the worse in NBA whith players who thought they can coach the game to a potential playoff team.
WHY?
the team is now becoming very clear. You have a very good point guard in my opinion between 8th to 10th better pg in nba.

You have in my oppinion for next year with VES KS NENE booker and singleton if he stays, the 5th to 10th better big guys roster in NBA.

You have now with nene and singleton, mason some vets who have talent and brings some respect especially with the young guys who think they know everything ( crawford) and also with the departure of mcgee, blatch and young the roster is fresh and ready for a new start.

The team is coherent, but it needs to improve sf and sg starters because singleton it's not enough in the scoring area even if his defense is okay and crawford in my oppinion is a beat selfish and when he is not heating shots, he continues doing some really poor percentage.

The team also needs to sign one or two reliable players who has a good 3point shot coming from the bench for the postion 1,2,3.

The defense of the team is also very solid now and very energic.
This team has also lots of real and reliable talent like Wall, Nene, SERAPHIN, Vesely and that's the most important because the team can reach a very high level with that axis : wall ks nene

For next year i see wiz with 40 wins.