Wiz trade Shard and 2nd rounder for Okafor and Ariza-Part II

[Nivek]

Teams don't become good because of continuity. They gain continuity because they become good. There's no reason to break up a good team. Bad teams change players because the reason a team is bad is because the players aren't good. Once you get good players, you keep them together while still trying to add more good players.

This is one of the hazards of the Wizards strategy of rebuilding with 30-year old big men. If this team becomes good, it'll likely have a smaller window for success because key components are likely to start becoming less effective as they age.

Teams can become worse due to lack of continuity. For instance someone like Caron Butler was ineffective in Flip Saunder's offense vs the previous regime. But yeah, good players don't hurt. Not sure how the Wizards are supposed to get quality young men other than the draft because teams aren't trading those guys.

I don't think Caron is an example of this. He did become less effective, but virtually all of that appears to be his ability to finish at the rim. I don't see how Flip's offense caused Caron to miss layups.

[Kanyewest]

^^ Flip treid to make Caron Butler into a catch and shoot shooting guard which made him less effective. Yes he shouldn't have had an effect on missing layups but he also saw a significant drop in his assist numbers. Looks like his field goal percentage and 3 point percentage went down also suggesting that his jumper was not as effective. Then again, Butler had developed bad habits when Tapscott was the head coach that were not conducive when having a 19-63 record.

[hands11]

Questions to the salary and contract geeks.

I'm sure this has been posted before but with the off season getting closer I was wondering if someone could help provide the information again.

So Trevor A has an option on his last year. What can happen that is good for the Wizards if they want to keep him around? Does that allow them to rework his deal and extend him kind of like they did Dray ? Not sure if they need to or not, just wondering if they can if needed. He is due 7.7M. Can they say rework the deal over 3 years for 6M a year = 3 yr/19M ? They may be better off just leaving his contact as it is and seeing if they can sign him cheaper later for say a 3 year deal at 4M a year. If they do this, that are only saving 3M over the first 3 years starting next year 8+4+4 = 16M. It might be better to lock him up so that going into 2014 you have him with 2 yrs remaining at 6M a year. That should be a tradable contract if needed. He will be 28. Though having him with 3yrs remaining at 4M/yr if clearly more attractive.

What are the options on Okafor. I read he has an ETO. Is that true ? What options do they have for reworking his deal ?

And for both, would that affect the Wizards trading right or player options to refuse trades ?

Thanks in advance.

[TGW]

Resigning Okafor and/or Ariza to long-term contracts would be just another dumb move by the FO if they did it. They need to open up capspace--not waste it on players that will only decline with time. They already blew it by trading for these guys and missing out on actual building block players like Ryan Anderson and [maybe] Harden.

Ariza and Okafor have shown for the past two seasons that they aren't good enough to make a bad team even average, and they'll only be expensive bench depth as they age. Especially Okafor.

The best course of action IMO is to trade Okafor over the summer while his value is at an all-time high, and hope for Ariza to opt out. Then hopefully they can allocate that money towards resigning Webster to a reasonable contract, and gain something from trading Okafor. Right now, they should be VERY CONCERNED that they don't have a bigman worth a damn under the age of 30. That would be priority #1 for me going into the offseason. Vesley, Booker, and Seraphin are **** and not worth their roster spaces right now.

[nate33]

Questions to the salary and contract geeks.

I'm sure this has been posted before but with the off season getting closer I was wondering if someone could help provide the information again.

So Trevor A has an option on his last year. What can happen that is good for the Wizards if they want to keep him around? Does that allow them to rework his deal and extend him kind of like they did Dray ? Not sure if they need to or not, just wondering if they can if needed. He is due 7.7M. Can they say rework the deal over 3 years for 6M a year = 3 yr/19M ? They may be better off just leaving his contact as it is and seeing if they can sign him cheaper later for say a 3 year deal at 4M a year. If they do this, that are only saving 3M over the first 3 years starting next year 8+4+4 = 16M. It might be better to lock him up so that going into 2014 you have him with 2 yrs remaining at 6M a year. That should be a tradable contract if needed. He will be 28. Though having him with 3yrs remaining at 4M/yr if clearly more attractive.

What are the options on Okafor. I read he has an ETO. Is that true ? What options do they have for reworking his deal ?

And for both, would that affect the Wizards trading right or player options to refuse trades ?

Thanks in advance.

Both players essentially have player options for their final year. (I think Okafor's is an ETO, but it makes no practical difference.) They therefore have the flexibility to agree to scrap their final season in exchange for a new contract. So what you are suggesting is indeed possible. The last years of their respective deals can be reworked into longer extensions.

I don't think it makes any sense to do so, though. If Ariza would agree to a 2-year extension at $4M and $4M, I'd rather just pay him 8/4/4 than have him rip up his existing contract and renegotiate a $5.3/$5.3/$5.3 deal. It's better to pay more up front (we have the luxtax room to do so) and pay them less in the future (when we will have cap room and be looking for more depth).

EDIT: I'll add that I'm opposed in general to the idea of locking up Okafor and Ariza into long term deals at this point. At their age, it's possible they could suffer a major injury next year. Why take on that risk? I'd only do so if we thought we'd get a discount, but my guess is that their value has increased with their recent play, making a discount highly unlikely. I think the best way to get a discount is to simply wait for them to regress to the mean a bit. Okafor in particular is unlikely to sustain this level of play throughout the entirety of next season.

[Liverbird]

I suspect that Ariza will opt out this summer. He's shown that he can still effectively contribute and at 28 may seek his last long term MLE deal.

Okafor on the other hand will be here next year IMO and would be excellent trade bait as an expiring. We could also sign him to a much cheaper contract after the 2014 season if we left him expire, although it would be better to get some value for him.

[payitforward]

DC. Does it really matter anymore if people that don't see what is going on don't. They will eventually in time and nothing will change that until we are conference contenders. No amount of wins this year is going to change that. Move forward to next year. If we make the playoff and don't win the first round it will be more of the same. Once we get into the second round, then they will start to change their tune. Well that isn't likely to happen until next April. Except it. There will be people posting about all the moves we should have done and how this is fool gold until at least then. It is what it is.

Meanwhile, some of us will enjoy what we see them building, cheering them on, and talking about the pieces they can add to the core they have.

Hands, given how sure you were that signing Sean Livingston was going to make a big difference (to pick only one example of the dozen or more jaw-dropping misapprehensions you have expressed this season), you might want to rely a little less on your crystal ball. No offense meant, btw -- really not: you're an enthusiastic fan, nothing wrong w/ that.

At the same, all the "revisionism" you think you see is imaginary. Doesn't exist. E.g. you might want to look back at what you predicted this team's record would be (healthy) and then look at what I predicted.

I thought they'd be a lot better than you did. And I have no trouble defending my criticism of the moves that got us to the sterling mediocrity it's possible we've attained.

[Rafael122]

I would let them play out their contracts. Trade them for picks. I wouldn't trade them to get players that still have 1 or 2 years left on their deals. It's kinda like you're repeating the same moves over and over again. As now of now, the Wizards have roughly $20 million in salary, assuming they don't pick up Vesely's option (which they shouldn't, $4.2 mil for him is crazy) but pick up Beal and Singleton obviously. That's not including Wall's extension, or a first round pick in the next two years but still...that's a lot of cap room, and the 2014 free agent class might be pretty solid.

Guys like Danny Granger, Rudy Gay, Chandler Parsons (he would be my top FA target next offseason. Front load the deal as much as possible), Varejao as our 5. There's going to be quality guys out there.

[Dat2U]

I agree with Liverbird that there's a decent shot Ariza opts out so he can sign a 3-4 year deal, even if its for a little less than what he's getting now.

The ideal scenario would be for Ariza to opt out, retain Webster on the cheap and draft Otto Porter to replace Ariza's spot in the rotation.

[TGW]

The ideal scenario would be for Ariza to opt out, retain Webster on the cheap and draft Otto Porter to replace Ariza's spot in the rotation.

That would be excellent if it actually happened. Webster is an ideal 6th man once Otto Porter would be ready to start.

[hands11]

Feb numbers.

Trevor A .491 FG% .388 3FG% .909 FT 4 rbs, 2.3 AST, 1.6 stls 11.9 pts in 28.8 mins. No bad.

Okafor .492 FG% 9.9 rbs 11.5 pts in 28.2 mins. .1 pts from averaging a double double. If he only shot better then .417 from the line

[hands11]

http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?id=400278649

Trevor A with a monster game.

7-11 FG, 5-8 FG3, 7-8 FT, 10 RB, 26 pts in 35 mins.

For a guy that looked like complete rss in the preseason, he has slowly turned it around.

He shot .491 FG for Feb and is now up to .349 from 3 shooting for the year.

Now shooting .409 FG on the year which still isn't great but he was .348FG and .229 FG3 in Nov before going out injured for 17 games.

So the Wiz got two legit NBA players for that dead Lewis contract. Now what to do with them.

[Ruzious]

Ariza looked like a reverse stock split in preseason?

Is it just me, or has Ariza's body language looked terrible ever since Aldridge came out with the news that the Wiz wanted to trade him for Caron Butler? Even last night - when he played very well - he looked unhappy and even melancholy on the court.

[hands11]

He is playing out game in another meaningless season. I'm sure that is no fun for a vet 26 year old who have tasted title play. Specially when you don't have clear sights on your future with that team.

I Wizards look a lot better when the roster is healthy and they played like a solid playoff team. They were on a roll being the best in the league but they just dug to big of a hole to get it done. But until a week or so ago, they still had that long shoot playoff thing out there to keep the season interesting for the players. Now that is gone and what is left behind that are tones of questions.

Only thing I know this team has that I feel confident in as a starter on a future quality playoff team is Beal.

[Dat2U]

I think Ariza is as good as gone, the body language says it all. Don't underestimate how much folks hate playing in DC in the Grunfeld era. Money isn't as important as happiness to some players.

[closg00]

I think Ariza is as good as gone, the body language says it all. Don't underestimate how much folks hate playing in DC in the Grunfeld era. Money isn't as important as happiness to some players.

You could be right Dat, I am softening my position on this, I have under estimated the drive to escape the stench of Grunfeld and how he runs the Wizards.

[nate33]

I think Ariza is as good as gone, the body language says it all. Don't underestimate how much folks hate playing in DC in the Grunfeld era. Money isn't as important as happiness to some players.

I don't think this is true at all. There's nothing in particular about playing in DC or under Grunfeld that's objectionable other than the constant losing. Take away the losing and DC is as good of a place to play as any. It may not be a coveted destination like NY or LA, but it's not a place to be avoided.

The question is, does Ariza still consider DC to be Loserville? Or have we shed that label with our play in 2013?

If anything, the reason Ariza leaves might simply be to play someplace where we he doesn't have to fight Martell Webster for minutes. He wants playing time in his contract year so he can sign a big contract next summer.

[Rafael122]

I think Ariza is as good as gone, the body language says it all. Don't underestimate how much folks hate playing in DC in the Grunfeld era. Money isn't as important as happiness to some players.

Been saying this since he was traded. Ariza is the more likely to leave, which is fine by me. Frees up money, and the team could easily trade Okafor for a pick or two since he'll have a huge expiring contract.

[hands11]

When does he have to decide what he wants to do.

I assume it is after the draft.

[Kanyewest]

Ariza's TS% is now 52.9%. The last time his TS% was over 50%, he was on the Lakers (54.4). That's around the time when Morey decided to give Ariza his current contract.