Predicting the Wizards 2012 Regular Season Record

[payitforward]

How will we do this season? When I began running numbers I found myself surprised. I'll be interested in what you think.

I make the assumption that Nene won't be ready to start (tho perhaps/probably ready to play minutes) when the season begins. My guess, in any case, is that he's more likely a 25 minute/game presence than much more. Nene's minutes have trended down over the last 4 years, and that was from a high @ 33 minutes. Hence our starters might be:

Okafor
Vesely
Ariza
Crawford (assuming Beal won't start for a while)
Wall

If Okafor returns to his career-best level of play and Ariza does the same, if Vesely continues to improve on the same steep angle as in the last 1/2 of last season, if Crawford misses the bus to the arena, and if Wall improves about as much as Rose did his 3d year (from about the equivalent productivity to Rose's first 2 years), and plugging Beal in at average productivity, we could be a pretty good team.

In fact, starting to run numbers for the first time, if everyone on the squad plays to the same productivity level as he did last year, and if injuries don't severely limit minutes for Ariza, Okafor and/or Nene (i.e. they total 5500-6000 minutes), WP48 tells me we might win 45 games.

That number surprised me, of course -- yet it accords w/ what some of the WoW analyses have come up with.

Now... injuries to Nene, Booker and Ariza (all of whom are coming off injuries) might play havoc w/ those results. And so could lower productivity on the part of the older players.

On the other hand, improvements by young players like Wall, Crawford, Vesely and Singleton could push us the other way. Ditto if Beal is an outstanding player right away.

Thoughts...?

[Nivek]

I'll have my number of wins projection closer to the regular season, but I think 45 wins is POSSIBLE. Not likely, but possible.

[GhostsOfGil]

PIF can you include the 2011 and 2010 prediction threads in your OP? IMO its nice to see previous years predications. Hate how you can't search on this forum...

[closg00]

Here is last-years prediction thread.
viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1140859&start=150

[GhostsOfGil]

Thanks closg. Last year was easy, everyone knew (or should have known) that we were going to be bad.
This year is tough to predict....

[verbal8]

Thanks closg. Last year was easy, everyone knew (or should have known) that we were going to be bad.
This year is tough to predict....

Agreed it almost seems like it will be <25 victories or >35 victories.

[closg00]

If you're like me, you are waiting to see John's jump-shot and overall point guard skills before making a prediction. There will be other factors as-well, but that will be #1 on my list.

[montestewart]

If you're like me, you are waiting to see John's jump-shot and overall point guard skills before making a prediction. There will be other factors as-well, but that will be #1 on my list.

Seeing a little more of Beal in preseason and getting a better sense of the various health issue question marks are up there as well.

If Wall has a shot, that can improve all parts of his game, and he can become a star.

If Beal starts out fast and quickly becomes a relaible socrer in the rotation, if Vesely and Seraphin continue to develop their games, if Booker, Okafor, Ariza, and Nene collectively miss minimal games due to injury, if Webster and Martin provide some outside threat, if Jordan...well forget that for noe...they could win 45 or even more. I'm not really counting on all of that.

[truwizfan4evr]

Why not do a poll?

[Zonkerbl]

I don't even have to watch next season, I know EXACTLY what's going to happen.

Career ending plantar fasciitis problems for Nene, he goes to get surgery in January ...
Okafor's back can't handle the increased workload, he goes down in February.

Zards run with Wall, Beal, Ariza, Booker, and Seraphin, with Ves, Crawford, and Singleton off the bench. Booker also misses at least three months to plantar fasciitis. Ves gets starting role while booker is out, is inconsistent, and we have to sign some stiffs from the d-league for backup pf and c.

Marginal improvement from Wall, veteran-like play from Beal stabilizes the two somewhat, although he continues to shoot only 33% from three. Seraphin puts up good numbers from the c spot but crappiest bench in league (at this point Crawford, Singleton, and two d-league stiffs) kills us all season long.

25 wins

[DallasShalDune]

40-42
Miss playoffs.

[Earth2Ted]

I think we are a 41-42 win team if Nene plays 82 games.

Unfortunately he will only play 50 games- we will be 25-25 in those games, and 9-23 without him, for a total of 34-48.

[hands11]

How will we do this season? When I began running numbers I found myself surprised. I'll be interested in what you think.

I make the assumption that Nene won't be ready to start (tho perhaps/probably ready to play minutes) when the season begins. My guess, in any case, is that he's more likely a 25 minute/game presence than much more. Nene's minutes have trended down over the last 4 years, and that was from a high @ 33 minutes. Hence our starters might be:

Okafor
Vesely
Ariza
Crawford (assuming Beal won't start for a while)
Wall

If Okafor returns to his career-best level of play and Ariza does the same, if Vesely continues to improve on the same steep angle as in the last 1/2 of last season, if Crawford misses the bus to the arena, and if Wall improves about as much as Rose did his 3d year (from about the equivalent productivity to Rose's first 2 years), and plugging Beal in at average productivity, we could be a pretty good team.

In fact, starting to run numbers for the first time, if everyone on the squad plays to the same productivity level as he did last year, and if injuries don't severely limit minutes for Ariza, Okafor and/or Nene (i.e. they total 5500-6000 minutes), WP48 tells me we might win 45 games.

That number surprised me, of course -- yet it accords w/ what some of the WoW analyses have come up with.

Now... injuries to Nene, Booker and Ariza (all of whom are coming off injuries) might play havoc w/ those results. And so could lower productivity on the part of the older players.

On the other hand, improvements by young players like Wall, Crawford, Vesely and Singleton could push us the other way. Ditto if Beal is an outstanding player right away.

Thoughts...?

I think that is the number some of us have been saying from months. Welcome aboard.

But we will see. First things first. We have to see them in the preseason.

[tontoz]

This team should win at least 35 games unless they get hit really hard by injuries. I can see them winning more than that but i seriously doubt they win less.

[montestewart]

This team should win at least 35 games unless they get hit really hard by injuries. I can see them winning more than that but i seriously doubt they win less.

i think there's a pretty good chance they get hit really hard by injuries.

[hands11]

This team should win at least 35 games unless they get hit really hard by injuries. I can see them winning more than that but i seriously doubt they win less.

i think there's a pretty good chance they get hit really hard by injuries.

I doubt they will get hit hard. Here is why.

They have to many young players. Of all the young player, only Booker is of any concern.
They have depth with that balance of young and vet players. They will play at least 10 deep.
Lots of players are going to get minutes and that means, most players are not going to play anymore then 20 to 25 minutes. That is how they ended last year. I see no reason to think Randy won't go with the same approach this year.

That means they will not get warn down. It also means they don't have to force players to play injured.

If Nene is not 100% to start the season, they will just go with Okafor, Kevin, Ves and Booker until he is.

Trevor A and C Singleton are insurance for each other. Webster and C Martin are the same way.

Its like that across the roster. Only way they get in significant trouble are two scenarios.
1) If Wall goes down. But he is a young strong kid
2) Nene and Okafor go down at the same time.

So it really boils down to #2 and anyones total speculation about the chance of that happening. Both are coming off injuries so it is understandable that some are concerned. But both happened in a strike shortened year.

Before last year, Okafor missed 10 games in 4 years.
Before last year, Nene missed 12 games in 3 years

So there is more then enough evidence to not be concerned also.

[montestewart]

Before last year, Nene missed 12 games in 3 years

And before 2007-08, Arenas missed 12 games in 3 years too. So what?

The heralded beef/defense/veteran savvy of the Wizards front line could be in trouble. Your hands selected nodules of durability aside, Nene and Okafor (and Booker, and Ariza) have not been ironmen in their careers. Okafor, Booker, and Ariza have played in less than 80% of the games (although Ariza might have had a hard time cracking the lineup early on) and Nene has barely played 70%. That's their average, over their entire career, and all four have recent (why yes, just last year) injury issues, and I read somewhere that they aren't getting any younger, but thankfully they are under the care and supervision of the most highly regarded medical staff in all of professional sports.

Take off the cherry-picking colored glasses, hands. There just might be some injury problems up front, and if so, it might not just be missed games: reduced minutes for hobbled players, players playing poorly because they're playing hurt, weird rotations, small ball, all the best laid plans (not that I think this was one), etc. When you see a front line of Webster/Singleton/Vesely failing to grab any of Crawford's missed threes...

[payitforward]

Before last year, Nene missed 12 games in 3 years

And before 2007-08, Arenas missed 12 games in 3 years too. So what?

The heralded beef/defense/veteran savvy of the Wizards front line could be in trouble. Your hands selected nodules of durability aside, Nene and Okafor (and Booker, and Ariza) have not been ironmen in their careers. Okafor, Booker, and Ariza have played in less than 80% of the games (although Ariza might have had a hard time cracking the lineup early on) and Nene has barely played 70%. That's their average, over their entire career, and all four have recent (why yes, just last year) injury issues, and I read somewhere that they aren't getting any younger, but thankfully they are under the care and supervision of the most highly regarded medical staff in all of professional sports.

Take off the cherry-picking colored glasses, hands. There just might be some injury problems up front, and if so, it might not just be missed games: reduced minutes for hobbled players, players playing poorly because they're playing hurt, weird rotations, small ball, all the best laid plans (not that I think this was one), etc. When you see a front line of Webster/Singleton/Vesely failing to grab any of Crawford's missed threes...

Well of course there might be injury problems. Injuries are part of the equation in sports. But they can't be predicted, and I don't see any reason to worry about them. Current injuries, certainly, and recurrent ones that seem hard to recover from. I'm particularly worried about Booker's PlanFasc -- don't want to see his career cut short! But Nene's as well.

[payitforward]

...they will not get warn down...

If Nene is not 100% to start the season, they will just go with Okafor, Kevin, Ves and Booker until he is.

Trevor A and C Singleton are insurance for each other....

Before last year, Okafor missed 10 games in 4 years.... Nene missed 12 games in 3 years

I don't think injuries come from being worn down. Okafor is by no means the equivalent of Nene. Singleton is not the equivalent of Ariza. And how many games a guy missed before the injury he's now recovering from is of literally no importance.

Cross your fingers, toes and eyes (ears too if you can) that guys recover and stay healthy. Beyond that, I am at a loss what there is to discuss here. Chance? It's an interesting subject to be sure.

[tontoz]

If one or two of the bigs go down it isn't that big of a deal since there is some depth there. If Wall goes down it is curtains because there is nothing but garbage backing him up.