Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part I

[Dat2U]

We get the #1 we should either draft Noel or trade out.

Noel isn't a star but IMO he looks like the safest bet at the top of the draft. I feel comfortable saying he's in the Joakim Noah/Tyson Chandler category at worst and considering the age of Nene/Okafor and the regression of Seraphin this year, Noel would bring some long term stability to the position.

Muhammad I think will score at the next level but I'm not seeing an elite player there. Len should be a starting C but I'm thinking he's Roy Hibbert good as opposed to a big time stud. McLemore, Bennett & Goubert scare me. I'm watching Austin right now from Baylor and I'm not seeing anything special about him. Zeller I can't get a read on yet, so I'm not confident about him either. Marcus Smart looks solid but he's not really a need.

Trading the pick for a vet and/or an unprotected 2014 pick may not be the worst move especially if Noel is not available. There may be draft steals to be found in the post lottery range but even then were talking about solid rotation guys, not any real difference makers from what I can tell thus far.

Dat, what do you think about potentially trading the pick for Horford? I think Atl wants to tank for Wiggins. They won't resign Smith, and Horford is good enough to prevent them from being the worst team in the league.

Hmmm, is signed for 3 more years after this. I'd say he's one of those solid 2nd tier bigs in the same class as Nene but younger. If it's for Okafor straight up with the pick (as long as it's not the #1) it would be hard to pass that up.

Wall, Beal, Horford, Nene (at least part time) could be a pretty formidable foursome. Likely still possessing a missing link from truly putting us in the conversation with the NBA elite but we'd definitely start get our Atlanta Hawks type respect. 45-50 wins, potential 1st round win depending on matchup. Tough, gritty Eastern Semifinal loser. Depending on how you flip the likes of Seraphin, Crawford, Vesely et al for a useful type of player, you might even be able to hope for a little more.

[Upper Decker]

Can horford guard the 4? Ive always thought he was miscast as the 5 for alt, but now im thinking it maybe because he's not laterally quick enough to guard 4's.

[tontoz]

The Hawks have less than $20 million in payroll committed for next season. Why would they feel the need to move Horford?

Yes he can defend the 4 fine. He is one of the quickest bigs in the NBA (at least when he doesn't have the ball in his hands).

He struggles guarding big centers. He is definitely a natural 4.

[willbcocks]

Going by the stats, I'm also inclined to draft Noel over anyone else if he's still available when we pick. He looks like a player who will impact the games in many ways, and we no longer have anyone who looks like a longterm solution at starting PF/C.

Shabazz just does nothing but score. I get that we are not a good offensive team, but our two best long-term pieces, Beal and Wall, both project as good offensive players. I would rather get the defensive star big man and try to pick up another scorer via FA than draft a scorer who does almost nothing else (Shabazz).

Scorers are always available via trade or FA. Al Jefferson, Lou Williams, Ryan Anderson--if you add one or two players like that to a team with Wall, Beal, and Noel, you'd have a contender. Great defensive/rebounding bigs, on the other hand, never become available.

[nate33]

We'll have to see how he measures out at the combine since appearances can be deceiving. People were saying DWill was too small to play the 4 but he had a standing reach of 9' (1" higher than Horford) and weighed 248.

When using comps for measurables, you gotta throw out Horford and Noah. Both those guys have unusually short standing reach measurements that don't pass the eye test for me. Basically, you can almost always say that Joe Blow PF prospect has a better standing reach than Horford or that Joe Blow C prospect has a better standing reach than Noah.

[tontoz]

We'll have to see how he measures out at the combine since appearances can be deceiving. People were saying DWill was too small to play the 4 but he had a standing reach of 9' (1" higher than Horford) and weighed 248.

When using comps for measurables, you gotta throw out Horford and Noah. Both those guys have unusually short standing reach measurements that don't pass the eye test for me. Basically, you can almost always say that Joe Blow PF prospect has a better standing reach than Horford or that Joe Blow C prospect has a better standing reach than Noah.

Horford's standing reach is roughly average for a pf, if not above average. His standing reach is 2" higher than Blake Griffin.

[nate33]

We'll have to see how he measures out at the combine since appearances can be deceiving. People were saying DWill was too small to play the 4 but he had a standing reach of 9' (1" higher than Horford) and weighed 248.

When using comps for measurables, you gotta throw out Horford and Noah. Both those guys have unusually short standing reach measurements that don't pass the eye test for me. Basically, you can almost always say that Joe Blow PF prospect has a better standing reach than Horford or that Joe Blow C prospect has a better standing reach than Noah.

Horford's standing reach is roughly average for a pf, if not above average. His standing reach is 2" higher than Blake Griffin.

Horford's standing reach of 8'11 may be average for PF's if you count all of the SF/PF tweeners like Beasley, Bass and Mbah a Moute, but if you are looking at true 2-way PF's and PF/C's Horford's reach is short. Heck, there are numerous small forwards with a longer reach.

Here are some small forwards with an equal or greater standing reach:
Paul George
Rudy Gay
Trevor Ariza
Devin Ebanks
James Jones
Donte Green
Luol Deng
Marvin Williams
Kevin Durant

Here are a some PF's who are considered "undersized" who have an equal or greater standing reach than Horford:
Jason Maxiell
MIchael Beasley
Patrick Patterson
Kenneth Faried
Nick Collison
Tristan Thompson
David West

In fact, it's real hard to find starting caliber PF's who have smaller standing reach than Horford. Here's the few that I could find:
David Lee - 8'10.5"
Josh Smith - 8'10.5"
Kevin Love - 8'10"
Paul Millsap - 8-9.5"
Blake Griffin - 8'9"

That's about it. I suppose you can now count Carmelo Anthony and Lebron James.

[hands11]

Things are starting the shake out.

LA and PHX are clearly trade partners.

Kind of nervous to see what we do next.

Do we bit on going after a Gasol, Howard, Cousins, Gortat ? or do we keep this thing rolling and just draft and keep building like that.

Its all on the table right now. While not the sexiest of the moves, I like going after Gortat. He is solid and seems to be the least headcase of the bunch.

They can then draft another center or SF.

[tontoz]

8'10" or less

TRob
Jason Smith
Hansborough
Milsap
Troy Murphy
Sullinger

Among 4s who don't play center there seems to be a pretty narrow range. Bosh at 9'1" and LMA at 9'2" are the highest i know off the top of my head but both guys have played center. Horford has made 2 All-Star games at center.

[Dat2U]

I agree with Nate on Horford & Noah's standing reach measurements. Especially Noah's, it's got to be off. I always viewed Noah especially as having long arms and he uses those arms to be very disruptive on D. Horford I can see being a bit shorter standing reach because his chest is so broad and Horford appears to have some trouble with legit 7-0s.

[tontoz]

Sorting the draft express measurements by standing reach it appears that the average is closer to 9'. For some reason i couldn't find Ryan Anderson.

I trust a tape measure much more than the eye test. I remember one guy on here that was so sure Derrick Williams was below 6'7" barefoot that he was willing to bet on it. I wasn't in the conversation but i thought it was hilarious that someone actually thought they could tell someone's precise height by watching them on TV.

[nate33]

8'10" or less

TRob
Jason Smith
Hansborough
Milsap
Troy Murphy
Sullinger

I said it's hard to find starting caliber PF's shorter than Horford. I mentioned Millsap. The guys you mentioned are low minute scrubs.

The point is, Horford is either an unusual case of a guy who looks and plays much taller than he is, or those measurements are off. The fact that another notable big in his draft class (Noah) also seems to have measured small makes me think the measurements are off.

[nate33]

I trust a tape measure much more than the eye test. I remember one guy on here that was so sure Derrick Williams was below 6'7" barefoot that he was willing to bet on it. I wasn't in the conversation but i thought it was hilarious that someone actually thought they could tell someone's precise height by watching them on TV.

I trust tape measurements for no-shoes-height and wingspan. Standing reach is much more subjective. It depends on how far the player is stretching.

[Dat2U]

Standing reach has honestly become a huge tool in evaluating bigs. Like Nate says, there just aren't many cases of where big guys measured 8'10 or less become anything. I'd bet money Noah's measurement is off. Horford may be a bit short but he's the exception to the rule. If you can get accurate standing reach measurement, if the guy is in the 8'10 range or below, he'd better be a SF or be a once a decade type of athlete like Blake Griffin or LeBron James otherwise I'm not drafting him.

One of the reasons I'm very skeptical of Anthony Bennett is I suspect he'll be somewhere in that 8'9 or 8'10 range. His skill level reminds me of Michael Beasley too. Skill wise he's not quite at the level of what expected from an NBA SF so he may have some issues down the road.

[Rafael122]

Noel, offensively, scares me. Just because he doesn't seem to have an offensive game at all. Other than Nene, we don't have a true back to the basket player.

[tontoz]

Noel, offensively, scares me. Just because he doesn't seem to have an offensive game at all. Other than Nene, we don't have a true back to the basket player.

I agree. I haven't seen one good offensive move from him. Granted i haven't watched him a lot.

[Dat2U]

Noel, offensively, scares me. Just because he doesn't seem to have an offensive game at all. Other than Nene, we don't have a true back to the basket player.

I agree. I haven't seen one good offensive move from him. Granted i haven't watched him a lot.

If your drafting him for offense you would be disappointed.

I don't think he'll ever average 15 ppg per game.

Offensively I think he's somewhere b/w Tyson Chandler (closer to where he is right now) and Joakim Noah (which would be the higher end of the offensive abilities). He's naturally an instinctive passer like Noah so that's one unique offensive aspect he has.

But there's no doubt much like Chandler & Noah, Noel is going to make his money on the defensive end of the court & on the boards.

[Illuminaire]

I'd love to get Noel. Great defense and passing, and he can make his points off of dunks and put-backs.

[Nivek]

If Noel can be like Chandler on offense, I'm okay with that. Chandler figured out a few years ago that he could do just fine offensively with put-backs and dunks. He basically doesn't shoot unless he's at the rim. A LOT of guys would become much more productive if they'd limit themselves to what they do well. Not saying guys shouldn't try to improve their skills, but their production can improve by doing what they do well until someone can make them do something different. Too many guys hurt their teams by trying to show everyone they can dribble behind their back or shoot a 20-footer.

[dobrojim]

exactly - don't want guys out trying to prove how skilled they are instead
of proving how big they are (assuming they actually are BIG).

Been there, seen that.