The Completely Irrational Playoff Watch

Post #1 » by **jmrosenth** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:35 pm

10 games back with 32 to play. This may seem crazy now, but after finishing February winning 10 straight and sitting 6 or 7 back it's not going to be completely out of the question.

IBTL

doclinkin · Post #2 » by **doclinkin** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:59 pm

OK! I'M IN! Let's talk match-ups. Who would we rather smoke in the first round? I think it would it would be supremely satisfying to beat LeBJ but it might not be fair since DWade will be all dinged up and old and creaky by then. What team would be a good style match-up so we don't just steamroller them in a boring sweep.

Post #3 » by **jmrosenth** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:08 pm

Bring on the Heat. After sweeping them, we'll be the early favorites for the Decision, Part II in 2014.

Nivek · Post #4 » by **Nivek** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:21 pm

Playoffs remain theoretically possible. Right now, the 8th seed is at .500. To reach .500, the Wizards would need to go 26-6 the rest of the way -- a winning percentage of .813. With Wall, they're 10-7, a winning percentage of .588. They're Pythagorean projected winning percentage is a bit better -- .661.

Assuming they continue to play as they've been playing recently, they project to finish with 34-36 wins.

fishercob · Post #5 » by **fishercob** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 3:25 pm

Nivek wrote:Playoffs remain theoretically possible. Right now, the 8th seed is at .500. To reach .500, the Wizards would need to go 26-6 the rest of the way -- a winning percentage of .813. With Wall, they're 10-7, a winning percentage of .588. They're Pythagorean projected winning percentage is a bit better -- .661.

Assuming they continue to play as they've been playing recently, they project to finish with 34-36 wins.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gZEdDMQZaCU[/youtube]

Post #6 » by **Zonkerbl** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:01 pm

Here's my detailed thoughts on this on bullets forever:

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2013/2/12 ... te-2-12-13

After starting out February with two road losses to Memphis and San Antonio, the Zards have won four in a row. Their chances at reaching the playoffs are now, let's say, mathematically slim. But I'm a glass is half full kinda guy...

The good news is that the zards are not yet mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. The bad news is that they need to win more than 80% of their remaining 32 games (26-6, winning five games for every one they lose) to reach .500. With a little help from their friends they might squeak into the playoffs with 39 or even 38 wins -- at 38 wins they'd have to go 23-9, a 72% pace (in other words, be one of the top four teams in the league). The zard's record with Wall in the lineup is 10-7, so that doesn't seem terribly likely, although Beal was injured for 11 of those games (and six of the losses). Suppose Beal's health contributed to two of those losses (if Beal makes just one of the three three pointers he missed and two of the four free throws he missed against Utah; if Beal had made JUST ONE MORE FRIGGIN' BASKET against Sacto...), then the team's record could have been 12-5, good for 70%. Maybe this is a 70% team (at least for the short stretches of the season where everyone is healthy!).

Half of their next 32 games are on the road. This is where things get really dicey. Winning on the road is really, really hard, even for the best teams (the four best teams right now - Miami, SA, OKC, and the Clips - have a combined 64-42 road record, good for only 60%!). The best possible scenario is that they win out at home, only needing to go 10-6 on the road to get to .500 ( or 7-9 to get to 38 wins).

What they really need to do now is go on a ten game winning streak, which is a little more believable, although requiring them to win the next four straight road games -- at Detroit (currently 20-33), Toronto (19-32), Minnesota (19-30), and Brooklyn (30-22), plus they'd have to beat Denver and New York at home. That would put them at 25-35 with 22 games left to play, only needing to go 16-6 the rest of the way to get to .500 (and only 13-9 to get to 38 wins). They'd have 12 road games left at that point and could get to .500 by winning out at home and winning half of their remaining road games.

Do I think this is going to happen? Let me put it this way -- if they lose again at home, especially in the next ten games, I would say their chances go from slim to wishful thinking. Check in with me again on March 9...

closg00 · Post #7 » by **closg00** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:14 pm

It's a long-shot, but I've been following the standings in a different way now. Previously I was trying guess where we might land in the lottery, now I am looking at that wide-gap and trying to envision it closing enough to really get irrational about the playoffs. Yes, I am a sucker.

Post #8 » by **miller31time** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:29 pm

Nivek wrote:Playoffs remain theoretically possible. Right now, the 8th seed is at .500. To reach .500, the Wizards would need to go 26-6 the rest of the way -- a winning percentage of .813. With Wall, they're 10-7, a winning percentage of .588. They're Pythagorean projected winning percentage is a bit better -- .661.

Assuming they continue to play as they've been playing recently, they project to finish with 34-36 wins.

The good news for us is that we're in the Eastern Conference and in the Eastern Conference, you don't usually need to be .500 to make the playoffs.

Milwaukee is currently 8th in the East but I don't think they'll finish the season .500. When Skiles left, they're a different team. They'll finish with about 37 or 38 wins. Provided health, I see us passing Cleveland, Toronto and Detroit. Philadelphia and Milwaukee will be the two in the way. If it holds true that 37 wins gets you in as (or ties you for) the 8th seed, we'd need to finish 22-10.

Not saying this is probable but it's possible.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #9 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:57 pm

Nivek wrote:Playoffs remain theoretically possible. Right now, the 8th seed is at .500. To reach .500, the Wizards would need to go 26-6 the rest of the way -- a winning percentage of .813. With Wall, they're 10-7, a winning percentage of .588. They're Pythagorean projected winning percentage is a bit better -- .661.

Assuming they continue to play as they've been playing recently, they project to finish with 34-36 wins.

The way the playoffs could happen is if the eighth seed falters and ends up with 38 wins.

Washington at 15-35 would have to go 23-9 to end up at 38-44.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #10 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 4:57 pm

double post

Kanyewest · Post #11 » by **Kanyewest** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:10 pm

Bucks have now lost 4 in a row, they probably need to stretch their bad play of late for the Wizards to have a chance.

Wes_Tiny_Abe_ · Post #12 » by **Wes_Tiny_Abe_** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 5:13 pm

jmrosenth wrote:10 games back with 32 to play. This may seem crazy now, but after finishing February winning 10 straight and sitting 6 or 7 back it's not going to be completely out of the question.

IBTL

JAR69 · Post #13 » by **JAR69** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:22 pm

FWIW, ESPN puts our odds at 3.7 percent: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds.

Post #14 » by **nate33** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:29 pm

JAR69 wrote:FWIW, ESPN puts our odds at 3.7 percent: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds.

Interesting that he has our odds of making the finals higher than Detroit and as high as Philadelphia's. Basically, it looks like our problem is that we have too much ground to make up. If we actually make the playoffs, his analysis suggests he'd be giving us about a 6% chance of making the Finals... about as high as the Bulls' chances and higher than Brooklyn's.

Higga · Post #15 » by **Higga** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:39 pm

The Skins were 3-6 and won the division.

F it, lets go for it.

fishercob · Post #16 » by **fishercob** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:45 pm

nate33 wrote:
JAR69 wrote:FWIW, ESPN puts our odds at 3.7 percent: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds.

Interesting that he has our odds of making the finals higher than Detroit and as high as Philadelphia's. Basically, it looks like our problem is that we have too much ground to make up. If we actually make the playoffs, his analysis suggests he'd be giving us about a 6% chance of making the Finals... about as high as the Bulls' chances and higher than Brooklyn's.

We should petition to extend the regualar season this year. What will it take -- another 10 games? 20?

queridiculo · Post #17 » by **queridiculo** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:45 pm

I've been debating whether we should shoot for the 7th seed since that's probably the easier path to the finals. Then I realized that we've beaten Miami 3 out of the last 4 games, so the 8th seed probably makes more sense.

Post #18 » by **Ruzious** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 6:48 pm

Higga wrote:The Skins were 3-6 and won the division.

F it, lets go for it.

Ok, but if JW1 tears his knee up in the playoffs, don't let him back in the game. And no Shanahanagans with Dr. Andrews!

Upper Decker · Post #19 » by **Upper Decker** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 7:07 pm

If the Wizards didn't start out 4-28 and were maybe 12-20 I'd say they have a chance, but as discussed in the Bucks game thread, this team is so poorly constructed and has such little depth I don't see how this is possible. Further, they are playing well now, but how soon until Nene, Beal, or Wall twist and ankle, or sprain a wrist? This team without one of Beal, Wall, or Nene is 5-32. It’s impractical to think they remain perfectly healthy for the last 32 games. Lock this thread!

AlohaWiz · Post #20 » by **AlohaWiz** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 8:26 pm

JAR69 wrote:FWIW, ESPN puts our odds at 3.7 percent: http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds.

Oddly enough, according to the link below, the Redskins' odds of making the playoffs when they were 3-6 was 3.2%, which is real close to the Wizards' current odds. (Note: You may need to change the date to Nov. 4, 2012, to get the odds for when the Redskins were 3-6).

http://www.coolstandings.com/football/f ... ndings.asp

I agree with those who believe the playoffs are a remote possibility [insert Jim Mora face], but crazier (or equally crazy) things have happened!