Official 2013 Draft Thread - Part III

[nate33]

Continued from here.

[FAH1223]

Per Wiretap, I know some of you have been talking about Adams

Steven Adams has declared for the NBA draft and plans to sign with an agent.

Financial hardship is the main reason Adams is turning pro.

"In our conversations he was saying, 'I want to be here,' but I was well aware of the family situation," Pittsburgh coach Jaime Dixon said. "I have a history with the family. It's tough. He really loved it here. He's loved [his teammates] all the way through. It's hard. I know what he'd say, but I also knew what his family was saying when I had discussions with them."

One longtime NBA scout would not commit to saying Adams is a definite first-round draft pick.

"It's a shame, really," the scout said. "There is a lot more development that needs to be done there. Whether he was at Pitt or in the NBA, he is a ways away from helping an NBA team. But there are a lot of guys in the NBA who fit that description."

[dobrojim]

at the risk of continuing a diversion one name came to mind for me
in the midst of reading this discussion. Scottie Pippen. How much
NBA talent did he play against in college. I never remembered hearing
of the guy or seeing him play. Nada. He goes to the combine/scouting
camps or whatever they were called back then and voila, becomes
a lotto pick and a GoaT NBA player.

Drafting is complicated and an artform.

I hope Don Newman lends his knowledge gained in his years at SAN
to whatever decision the Wizards end up making when it's their pick.

[REDardWIZskin]

1st rd CJ McCollum
2nd Rd Jackie CarMicheal
2nd Rd Reggie Bullock

[pancakes3]

at the risk of continuing a diversion one name came to mind for me
in the midst of reading this discussion. Scottie Pippen. How much
NBA talent did he play against in college. I never remembered hearing
of the guy or seeing him play. Nada. He goes to the combine/scouting
camps or whatever they were called back then and voila, becomes
a lotto pick and a GoaT NBA player.

Drafting is complicated and an artform.

I hope Don Newman lends his knowledge gained in his years at SAN
to whatever decision the Wizards end up making when it's their pick.

Scottie Pippen out of Central Arkansas. Karl Malone out of Louisiana Tech. However Pippen was a #5 overall and Malone #13. They weren't complete unknowns but your point stands that SoS is not an end-all/be-all.

[popper]

As much as I dislike Shabazz's father influence DX has him going 9 and nbadraft.net at 8. I would grab him there as he potentially could solve three problems. Backup scoring at the SG and SF positions as well as freeing up the MLE to sign a quality big or guard instead of Webster (whom I love but wouldn't be needed if we draft Shabazz).

[Dark Faze]

No guarantee that Bazz can bring what Webster does though. Webster is a professional who accepts his role first and foremost, secondly though he is a proven shooter.

I'm concerned that Shabazz may not be as good of a shooter as he appeared this season. .71% from FT while shooting .38 from deep...they don't exactly correlate to sustainability at the NBA level.

Also, I don't know that Webster will get full MLE.

I'd rather draft Olynyk or even Len, but if Bazz was available I'd have to consider it...

[FAH1223]

Perhaps the most interesting scenario I’ve seen is Len going No. 10 to the Oklahoma City Thunder, which acquired a draft choice between fourth and 14 from the Toronto Raptors, who are currently eighth from the bottom of the league’s overall standings.

Len’s stock, despite his erratic play this season, has apparently never wavered among the NBA scouts who regularly attended games at Comcast Center as well as on the road. Though he is viewed by all of them as a project, his athleticism for a player his size and the fact that he does have some range on his jumper makes him desirable among NBA coaches and general managers.

There are a few scouts who are worried that Len might turn out to be another Nikoloz Tskitishvili, a 7-footer who was the fifth overall pick of the Denver Nuggets in 2002 and averaged less than three points and two rebounds in a 172-game career.

When I mentioned the name Darko Milicic, who was infamously picked by the Detroit Pistons behind LeBron James and ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2003, a scout who played in the league said, “Darko didn’t want to play basketball. You can see Alex does.”

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terp ... ory?page=1

[Rafael122]

Still wouldn't take him. At the 9th or 10th pick, whatever it is we're at, my top 2 choices would be McCollum and Olynyk. Sign price for the LLE, and you can bring CJ and AJ off the bench. Price can be the point, CJ can b the 2 guard, either or. Bring Temple back as the 5th guard. If Len's a project, you gotta ask yourself if the Wizards are willing to do this AGAIN. At some point, they have to start drafting w/the thinking that this kid can produce his first year, i.e. Beal.

[Dark Faze]

I agree Rafael. I like to call it the Vesely effect now. Back in 2011 we knew Kawhi Leonard would be a really solid player but with a low ceiling. Vesely was clearly a project with lots of upside. I'm sure lots of us would love to have Kawhi right now.

I'd only argue that I'd prefer Olynyk over McCollum, due to guards being a pretty cheap option in free agency these days in comparison to bigs. Collison is on a deal for 2 mill per, Bayless for 3 mill, Mayo for 4..bigs are a lot more expensive, and I like Olynyks upside.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Although it's honestly hard for me to lock it down, here's an attempt at my current ranking of players for the Wizards taking into account need, player fit in terms of mindset and skillset. Basically this would be my draft board, at least as of now... and I'm hoping we move up higher with our 2nd pick into the late 1st if possible, but I still have players that should be available if we don't as well.


1st pick:

1. Nerlens Noel
2. Otto Porter
3. Trey Burke
4. Anthony Bennett
5. Alex Len
6. Kelly Olynyk
7. Victor Oladipo
8. Glenn Robinson III
9. Ben McLemore
10. Cody Zeller


2nd pick:

1. Gorgui Dieng
2. Jeff Withey
3. Mike Muscala
4. Doug McDermott
5. Erik Murphy
6. Erick Green
7. Adreian Payne
8. Solomon Hill
9. Allen Crabbe
10. Russ Smith

[WizarDynasty]

i guess i will chime in again. Adams has all of the physical foundational tools to be our cornerstone bigman. More importantly, he comes from a basketball line. He will be this years drummond. I see all of the same analysis that occured last year. the naive discounted drummond and it appears no one has figured out why they completed bombed on their ability to project where he would be.
I completely explained it last year and i expected for this board to have learned from their mistakes.

Alex len has all of the same problems as Javale mcgee in terms of lower body strength and defensive footspeed.

[stevemcqueen1]

I'd go:

1.) Noel
2.) Bennett
3.) Zeller
4.) Porter
5.) McLemore
6.) Oladipo
7.) Smart
8.) Len
9.) Burke

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This sounds like SMOKE designed to scare a GM away (while another GM moves in to draft him):

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/22 ... kitishvili

Scouts say they're afraid Len will go the way of Nikoloz Tskitishvili???

I actually thought from seeing him at Pete Newell's Camp years back that Tskitishvilli was going to be a great. He sure looked that way in drills to my (admittedly untrained) eye. A lot of guys were there. (I think the link to follow is from the year I saw him there. Could have been 2000 or 2002.)

http://www.socalhoops.com/prep01/0801/p ... ll0813.htm

Alex Len is physically bigger and stronger than Tskitisvishvilli. Yes, he might get physically dominated by brothers and big white dudes who bang in the NBA. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it because Len's got a MUCH STRONGER BODY than Tskita. I don't think he's any mentally tougher, however. But Len has practiced against two guys over 260 and he's seen a bunch of NCAA competition. Tskita was just like Vesely and Pecherov, and he played abroad with a different type of crowd, club system, and expectations. Also, Tskita was strictly a face up guy. Len plays close to the basket even if he frequently gets walled off from the basket.

I think Len's transition to the NBA will be much better because for one he's going to be playing with actual PGs who can get him the ball.

Perhaps quotes attributed to scouts may be blowing smoke. (Good one, EG.) If serious, however, I disagree with whoever put that out. What I do think, however, is a lot of guys will do better than Len.

Zeke Marshall, Mike Muscala, and perhaps Steven Adams IMO will be just as good initially if not better than Len. I think Isaiah Austin might have a similar tough time due to his lack of physicality but he's a bit smoother than Len and quicker to rebound. Muscala moves awkwardly and he lacks strength but IMO he's a lot better than Len at some things.

The scouts are right to sense that Len needs work and he MIGHT NOT BE SO GOOD at the next level.

I wish somebody would slip Len or his family money to keep that guy at Maryland one more season. No that's an NCAA violation that could hurt Maryland and is against the rules. What I wish is his family were taken care of to where Len could stay, improve, and make the best move for himself and his career which is to develop even more skills, get stronger in the post, move laterally better and THEN go pro.

[montestewart]

i guess i will chime in again. Adams has all of the physical foundational tools to be our cornerstone bigman. More importantly, he comes from a basketball line. He will be this years drummond. I see all of the same analysis that occured last year. the naive discounted drummond and it appears no one has figured out why they completed bombed on their ability to project where he would be.
I completely explained it last year and i expected for this board to have learned from their mistakes.

Alex len has all of the same problems as Javale mcgee in terms of lower body strength and defensive footspeed.

I'm interested in Adams. Tell me more. Please use paragraph breaks occasionally.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't like Adams desperation and his lack of offense. He's a big, very good shot blocker, good to great rebounder but this team needs offense. I don't know about his character and work ethic.

Then again he did that as a frosh. He's got the most upside, potentially.

I would pick Olynyk over him, and for the moment, Alex Len.

[hands11]

No guarantee that Bazz can bring what Webster does though. Webster is a professional who accepts his role first and foremost, secondly though he is a proven shooter.

I'm concerned that Shabazz may not be as good of a shooter as he appeared this season. .71% from FT while shooting .38 from deep...they don't exactly correlate to sustainability at the NBA level.

Also, I don't know that Webster will get full MLE.

I'd rather draft Olynyk or even Len, but if Bazz was available I'd have to consider it...

What do you think about Olynyk ? Would you draft him over Len ?

[jivelikenice]

I watched the draft express scouting video on him....didnt like what I saw. He has some ability off the dribble and shows a good first step, but is slow getting to his next step & against NBA bigs with length, he'll struggle to finish.

[montestewart]

From some things I've read, Adams could be available late 1st, maybe even fall to early 2nd. If the Wizards grab a wing player with their 1st pick, how would he look later?

[The Consiglieri]

Going through the remaining schedule, I think it's become clear that it's a four team battle between Minnesota, Washington, Sacramento, and Toronto for slots 7-10. Based on said schedule we appear to have the 2nd toughest schedule over all. I'd say at this point, pre-lottery, our most likely final slot is 8.

Players seemingly available where we'll pick pre-workout/combine:

2/3/4:
1. O. Porter (probably off board earlier unless he has crummy work outs)
A. Bennett (probably off board too early)
S. Muhammad (a year older than thought drops his value big time)
V Oladipo have an unreasoned hunch that he'll be disappointing
T. Burke short PG doesn't make a lot of sense for us but its hard to imagine he'll fizzle as a pro
G. Robinson III your buying his potential as a long term investment, not a current value.

Big Men:
1. Len-Expect him to rise in value after workouts
2. Zeller-expect him to rise in value after workouts
3. Olynyk-not sure what his value will be...
4. I. Austin-huge long term potential, huge bust risk
5. Gobert-another long term euro investment
6. Stein-an unknown
7. S. Adams-interesting speculative guy

The guys I'd be most interested in would be, Bennett, GRIII, oddly Len (ive warmed to him), Austin and Gobert for long term investment value. I really have a bad feeling about Oladipo, Zeller, and Olynyk. Muhammad scared me kind of like Antoine Walker style. I think he's a lock to be a good to great scorer, but the history of guys that fit his type in terms of mentality and approach were always guys who were historically moved repeatedly from team to team, never getting a 2nd contract because his skill tempted, but his mentality/make up repulsed/killed chemistry. Most important thing we could do with him would be a thorough interview and investigation of his past to find out exactly WHO he is as a person. Any warning flags and PASS.

My strategy would be to attempt to package this year picks, and players, to move up to get Bennett, or perhaps Porter (another guy many of you like that im worried about, have a weird feeling he'll just be very average or worse at the next level because of the lack of elite tools in his game, I always get nervous when there are college players in any draft that are good at many things but great at nothing, makes me nervous because the next jump up tends to require greatness in some area to be attainable for a prospect, there have been exceptions, but not nearly as many as there have been for Korver types etc, guys who have 1 elite skill). Anyway, that's what I'd do because at the end of the day, I see about 2 or 3 guys I this draft that have a reasonable chance at huge upside, and Bennett is one, and will probably go 1-3 slots before we pick, barring us moving up in the lottery, i'd trade pieces to get up to him, though I wouldn't offer our '14 #1 under any circumstances. Say, Serphin, Ves, 2 2nd rounders, and our #1, or Seraphin, our '15 first rounder, top 3 protected etc.