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Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 7:18 pm
by Rafael122
No, I don't think it's too early to talk about this. Ariza and Okafor publicly declaring they will opt in kills whatever chance we had at 'cap space' for this year. We're already at $57 million, doesn't include bringing back Webster or Price, assuming we go down that route.
It's fun to talk about and speculate. The 2014 Free Agent Class is looking pretty good assuming the big names opt out, and there's even Tier 2 type of players like Danny Granger.
I will admit my math isn't as good as Nivek or Nate but I will try my hardest. Correct me if I'm wrong, anyone, but as it stands now, our cap situation might be around $30 to $40 million. It would be on the lower end if this happens:
1. Okafor and Ariza walk after next season
2. The 4th year options on Vesely and Singleton are not picked up
3. Webster isn't brought back
4. Booker and Seraphin are not re-signed
That leaves Nene at $13 million, Wall at probably around $13.5 (? just a guess of mine, assuming he gets his max contract), Beal at $4.5 and whatever our 2013 draft pick will be making next season, probably $2.1 mil next season. That's about $33 million total heading into the 2014 offseason.
The cap now is around $58 million, its probably not going to go up much, but we'll go with $58 million for next season. That's $25 mil, give or take to play with, assuming we renounce everyone.
Even if we pick up Ves' and Singleton's option, that's about $40 million in committed salary. Still enough to make a run at someone.
Is my math off? Is it possible to do this? Will Ernie do it and basically admit he made a mistake with four first round picks, or will he try and sign one of them to make himself look good? Will Webster get extended? If so by how much? Like I said earlier, it's fun to talk about, there's a chance it could happen if everything falls into place.
...or I could be horribly wrong about this.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 7:46 pm
by Nivek
Posted this on another thread...
If the Wizards:
- renounce Singleton
- decline the 4th year option on Vesely
- sign Wall to the max
- sign Seraphin for the qualifying offer
- sign Webster to a 3-year deal for the MLE
- draft 9th this year and 18th next year
...they could have approximately $10.2 million in cap room in the 2014 offseason.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 7:47 pm
by Nivek
If they renounce Seraphin too, they'd be around $14.1 million in cap room.
That's assuming the salary stays at $58.044 million.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 8:06 pm
by Rafael122
http://www.hoopsworld.com/2014-nba-free-agentsThe odds of all of this happening is probably 5%, if that. I'm sure Ernie is going to keep the rooks on cheap contracts, sign Webster, and all of this would be forgotten next year. I think back to what Dat said about building a championship team, or building a team to make the playoffs. Cap space, whether its $10 mil or $14 mil, it's still enough to get a tier 2 free agent like Granger who will not and should not get he 14 mil per that he's getting now. Put him with Beal and Wall, plus (God willing) a healthy Nene and that's probably a 45-50 win team. It's probably our best chance at building a contending team, outside of hitting a home run with the draft picks.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 8:13 pm
by nate33
Nivek wrote:If they renounce Seraphin too, they'd be around $14.1 million in cap room.
That's assuming the salary stays at $58.044 million.
Nivek, am I missing something? If they renounce Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin and Booker, and let Okafor and Ariza walk, and sign Webster to an MLE deal, I have the payroll looking like this:
Wall: $13.7M
Nene: $13M
Beal: $4.5M
Webster: $5.4M
2013 pick: $1.8M
2014 pick: $1.2M
Total: $39.6M
Factor in some minimum salary players to fill out the roster, and cap room will be the $17-19M range
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 8:17 pm
by Dark Faze
Us not signing Okafor to an extension seems very unlikely at this point unfortunately, but there's a chance we may have enough salary to get Granger. The fact that Ernie was looking to upgrade offensively via and Ariza trade might mean we move to actually get a guy like Granger next year.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 8:42 pm
by Nivek
nate33 wrote:Nivek wrote:If they renounce Seraphin too, they'd be around $14.1 million in cap room.
That's assuming the salary stays at $58.044 million.
Nivek, am I missing something? If they renounce Vesely, Singleton, Seraphin and Booker, and let Okafor and Ariza walk, and sign Webster to an MLE deal, I have the payroll looking like this:
Wall: $13.7M
Nene: $13M
Beal: $4.5M
Webster: $5.4M
2013 pick: $1.8M
2014 pick: $1.2M
Total: $39.6M
Factor in some minimum salary players to fill out the roster, and cap room will be the $17-19M range
Nope, I missed renouncing Booker. Your numbers look accurate.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 9:08 pm
by Rafael122
By the way seems like the same situation could arise in the 2015 offseason as well. Wall and Nene will have max salaries or close to it, Beal would still be on his rookie contract. That's the Summer of Love and Marc Gasol.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Fri Apr 5, 2013 11:36 pm
by SUPERBALLMAN
Dark Faze wrote:Us not signing Okafor to an extension seems very unlikely at this point unfortunately, but there's a chance we may have enough salary to get Granger. The fact that Ernie was looking to upgrade offensively via and Ariza trade might mean we move to actually get a guy like Granger next year.
Right, I'd rather see them just trade for him, and bring him into the fold sooner than later. If Indy thinks they'll lose him, and just want to get younger in general, maybe they'd consider something like Ariza, Singleton, Vesely, Seraphin.
Add Granger to a roster of Okafor, Nene, Booker, Webster, Beal, Temple, Price, Wall, and this year's draft picks.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 6:14 pm
by Rafael122
Bumping this up, according to Larry Coon on Twitter, the projected salary cap for the 2014-15 season is $62.1 million with the luxury tax set at $75.7 million.
Assuming Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, and Singleton are dropped. Ariza, Okafor and Webster are not resigned or extended, that leaves us with a project cap of $35 million (Wall's extension, Beal, Nene, and Porter).
You probably can't go by projections a year in advance, but that's a lot of money to spend in a big free agency year.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 6:46 pm
by nate33
Rafael122 wrote:Bumping this up, according to Larry Coon on Twitter, the projected salary cap for the 2014-15 season is $62.1 million with the luxury tax set at $75.7 million.
Assuming Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, and Singleton are dropped. Ariza, Okafor and Webster are not resigned or extended, that leaves us with a project cap of $35 million (Wall's extension, Beal, Nene, and Porter).
You probably can't go by projections a year in advance, but that's a lot of money to spend in a big free agency year.
Yup. $27M in cap room. It'll probably be more like $23M because we will retain Webster. We might have room to sign a max free agent AND retain Okafor for an extra 2 years on a $9M a year contract.
Ultimately, the additional cap room is probably bad news for us. At lot of teams that were in the luxtax zone are now breathing a sigh of relief. More money will be floating around to bid up free agents.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 6:47 pm
by Ruzious
Rafael122 wrote:Bumping this up, according to Larry Coon on Twitter, the projected salary cap for the 2014-15 season is $62.1 million with the luxury tax set at $75.7 million.
Assuming Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, and Singleton are dropped. Ariza, Okafor and Webster are not resigned or extended, that leaves us with a project cap of $35 million (Wall's extension, Beal, Nene, and Porter).
You probably can't go by projections a year in advance, but that's a lot of money to spend in a big free agency year.
Nice. So, we can bump up Kev's and nate's numbers for next offseason by about 4 million. That makes a big difference.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 8:38 pm
by mohammed10
Ruzious wrote:Rafael122 wrote:Bumping this up, according to Larry Coon on Twitter, the projected salary cap for the 2014-15 season is $62.1 million with the luxury tax set at $75.7 million.
Assuming Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, and Singleton are dropped. Ariza, Okafor and Webster are not resigned or extended, that leaves us with a project cap of $35 million (Wall's extension, Beal, Nene, and Porter).
You probably can't go by projections a year in advance, but that's a lot of money to spend in a big free agency year.
Nice. So, we can bump up Kev's and nate's numbers for next offseason by about 4 million. That makes a big difference.
Maybe, but it would appear that the cap for '13-14 is going to be lower than expected at $58.5 million, lower than some anticipated...
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/6/3/43 ... -14-rumors
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 9:26 pm
by Rafael122
mohammed10 wrote:Ruzious wrote:Rafael122 wrote:Bumping this up, according to Larry Coon on Twitter, the projected salary cap for the 2014-15 season is $62.1 million with the luxury tax set at $75.7 million.
Assuming Vesely, Booker, Seraphin, and Singleton are dropped. Ariza, Okafor and Webster are not resigned or extended, that leaves us with a project cap of $35 million (Wall's extension, Beal, Nene, and Porter).
You probably can't go by projections a year in advance, but that's a lot of money to spend in a big free agency year.
Nice. So, we can bump up Kev's and nate's numbers for next offseason by about 4 million. That makes a big difference.
Maybe, but it would appear that the cap for '13-14 is going to be lower than expected at $58.5 million, lower than some anticipated...
http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/6/3/43 ... -14-rumors
We weren't going to have cap space this year anyway. It's all about next year. Potentially four or five expiring contracts.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 9:34 pm
by mohammed10
^^^
Fair enough. I was just mentioning this year's cap because many were thinking that it was going to be a lot higher than what it appears to be. We just might have to temper our enthusiasm on the '14-15 cap space a bit.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 9:39 pm
by LyricalRico
mohammed10 wrote:We just might have to temper our enthusiasm on the '14-15 cap space a bit.
Isn't 2014 when the Big Three in Miami have opt-outs and they will have to try to keep the team together? Yeah, I'm not worried about the cap shooting up that year.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 9:43 pm
by Ruzious
mohammed10 wrote:^^^
Fair enough. I was just mentioning this year's cap because many were thinking that it was going to be a lot higher than what it appears to be. We just might have to temper our enthusiasm on the '14-15 cap space a bit.
It's good for the Wiz that this season's cap is low. You're probably right about tempering enthusiasm for 14-15 if Wiz management stays their course and doesn't plan well.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 9:44 pm
by Ruzious
LyricalRico wrote:mohammed10 wrote:We just might have to temper our enthusiasm on the '14-15 cap space a bit.
Isn't 2014 when the Big Three in Miami have opt-outs and they will have to try to keep the team together? Yeah, I'm not worried about the cap shooting up that year.
Lebron to DC!!!!
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 10:32 pm
by Rafael122
mohammed10 wrote:^^^
Fair enough. I was just mentioning this year's cap because many were thinking that it was going to be a lot higher than what it appears to be. We just might have to temper our enthusiasm on the '14-15 cap space a bit.
How so? At worse we might have enough space for 1 max free agent.
Re: Summer 2014 Free Agents Thread
Posted: Mon Jun 3, 2013 11:11 pm
by Upper Decker
Just curious on the vaunted 2014 FA class. Who is a target? Seems like the only UFA's are super old FA's like Kobe, Pierce, Granger, Dirk, Gasol, and Bogut. If this was 2004 I could see the excitement. Beyond that there are RFA's like Favors, Sanders, Cousins, Monroe, George, who would be interesting, however, the only way to acquire any of them would be to offer the max and cross your fingers they don't get matched (Unlikely). I guess we can throw Bosh / James in the mix, but neither seems even remotely likely, well Bosh, but maybe just a little. I don't consider Wade a potential FA at this point. Simmons podcast with Zach Lowe basically convinced me Wade won't opt out. He's not going to get $44M on the open market the way he's playing.
Help me see who the Wiz will spend their max cap space on. I've been told to get excited for the future cap space, but it seems like the only true target is the mysterious BYOD. Not only that, but it seems like there will be a smorgasbord of teams that have mega cap space in 2014. It's not like Washington will be able to rake a team over the coals because there will be so much bloody competition.
Basically Washington's only hope of landing a second star in 2014 appears:
1) Miami imploding making Bosh exercise his ETO
2) Wall/Beal become stars making Washington look like a team on the rise
3) Bosh magically picking Washington, amongst many other suiters
4) Hoping that Bosh actually reverts back to all-star form (not totally unlikely)
Will someone correct my thinking if I'm not seeing something?