RealGM

continued from here

Consig, your top draft board pretty much mirrors mine, except that I’d put both Len and Muhammad ahead of Burke and Oladipo if I’m drafting for the Zards.

While the Zards could certainly use a combo guard and someone (other than Wall) who can create for his teammates and himself, I just don’t see Burke filling that role. I see Burke as strictly a PG (given his size and strength) and not someone who can log a lot of minutes playing next to Wall.

VO is a tremendous defender and athlete, but he’s just a so-so shooter (at least at this point) and at his size (which I expect to be 6-5 or less) I don’t see Oladipo playing anywhere other than SG where Beal will be getting the lion’s share of the minutes.

Len has an unreal upside, imo, mostly because of his size and athleticism. I would find it hard to pass over that potential for a Burke or Oladipo, particularly given the value of a shotblocking, glass-eating big man in today’s NBA.

I think a lot of people on this board are sleeping on Muhammad. As you point out, he has a “high end NBA skill,” and that’s his ability to score in a variety of ways. Muhammad’s got a nice shooting touch from the perimeter and he’s very good at using his toughness and strength to score in the paint. And, according to all reports, he plays hard ALL the time. Does Muhammad have shortcomings (passing, ballhandling, shooting efficiency), of course. But I think he can improve in those areas. It would be a mistake to look at him as a finished product after one year of college ball.

Problem with Muhammad is we have two extremely good rebounding guards, so Muhammads ability to board is irrelevant. Under that case you'd be getting him purely as a scorer, and under that microscope his efficiency just doesn't hold up.

With Barnes the eye test and stats say you're getting Harrison Barnes with slightly better offense and slightly worse defense, which is barely worth it in comparison to the upside of guys like Bennett and Len.

And personally I don't even like Len as much as I like Dieng. Dieng won a chip as probably the best player on his team and there's little to no doubt that he'll be a great defensive big in the NBA. The only thing Len has over him is that his offensive potential is quite a bit higher than Diengs, but I don't think his defense is on Diengs level yet and the injury history and "upside" just aren't worth the sure bet that Dieng is as a C.

Muhammad looks like an ordinary athlete. He doesn't have enough "high end NBA skill" to pass, handle the rock or shoot it efficiently in college but we'll over look that because he was so highly rated coming out of high school. Oh, and he's a year older than advertised so he was a muscly 20 yr old trying to bull his way to success and couldn't even do it effectively against the NBDL breeding ground known as the Pac-10. I'll pass.

Dat2U wrote:Muhammad looks like an ordinary athlete. He doesn't have enough "high end NBA skill" to pass, handle the rock or shoot it efficiently in college but we'll over look that because he was so highly rated coming out of high school. Oh, and he's a year older than advertised so he was a muscly 20 yr old trying to bull his way to success and couldn't even do it effectively against the NBDL breeding ground known as the Pac-10. I'll pass.

Oh...and Kelly Olynyk played in that powerhouse conference known as the WCC. A breeding ground for tall corporate execs.

nate33 wrote:Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

I like the Seth Curry idea, although as has been mentioned, he's a lot more 3 than D.

One thing that should be pointed out - Fisher, Chalmers, and I'll throw in Avery Bradley - were all picked in the 19-25 range. It's kind of like Taj Gibson (and our own T-Booker), in that there's an impression these were 2nd round gems, but to find that type of role player you often do need to be in the latter half of the 1st round. (Daniel Gibson was a 2nd round pick, but he's also not as much of a defender as some of the others, IMO.) So I'd temper any enthusiasm around finding "that guy" in the late 30s.

In addition, I don't see many of that type of player in this draft regardless. I was all over Chalmers, and would probably have been the only guy happy to have picked him over McGee. [EDIT: I had remembered Chalmers in the discussion for a late teens/early 20s pick, but looked it up and he was indeed a 2nd rounder, #34.] I also liked Collison a lot (who was drafted in the 1st round, #21 - maybe he's the one I was thinking of), and thought he was a great value as a backup, change-of-pace PG who was a pesky defender. His problem was that he got a starter's contract and couldn't live up to it. But again, no one jumps out at me in this mold for this year's draft.

One name I hadn't seen before is Dennis Schroeder from Germany. Raise your hand if you pictured this guy when you read "Dennis Schroeder from Germany":



Apparently, he went nuts at the Hoop Summit and has jumped into the first round. Seems like a really high-risk, high-reward pick to me, the exact opposite of a Mario Chalmers. But that's about it from this year's draft.

And FWIW, if Shane Larkin is there at #38, I would have no problem taking him. Not exactly the profile you're describing, but he's a real talent and clearly makes his teammates better, so he'd be worth a pick, IMO.

Just noticed Pierre Jackson has been mentioned - I'd also be in favor of adding him. Probably best course would be to use the late 2nd on Jackson or Curry, one or both might still be on the board at that point, if you believe the mocks.

DCZards wrote:

Dat2U wrote:Muhammad looks like an ordinary athlete. He doesn't have enough "high end NBA skill" to pass, handle the rock or shoot it efficiently in college but we'll over look that because he was so highly rated coming out of high school. Oh, and he's a year older than advertised so he was a muscly 20 yr old trying to bull his way to success and couldn't even do it effectively against the NBDL breeding ground known as the Pac-10. I'll pass.

Oh...and Kelly Olynyk played in that powerhouse conference known as the WCC. A breeding ground for tall corporate execs.

Looked to me like Bazz only played hard when he had the ball in his hands. And his lack of rebounding is definitely an issue on a team that only has one big who is a good rebounder (and he is on an expiring deal).

I would agree that he looks like an ordinary athlete.

There are a lot of "ordinary athletes" who have had outstanding NBA careers, Tim Duncan, Melo, Larry Bird and Paul Pierce immediately come to mind.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft201 ... k-draft-20

Originally Published: May 8, 2013
By Chad Ford | ESPN Insider

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2013/5/8/ ... en-wizards

Chad Ford's latest mock draft has the Wizards selecting Alex Len at No. 8 overall.

So, Chad Ford seems to think Len is in Ernie's sights. And I've heard similar talk for quite a while that Ernie loves Len as a prospect.

He is a classic Ernie pick, high on upside with little proven history of production, and European. Add in he's a local player he can hype to the fan base adds even more reason to choose him.

But how do we feel about Len as our pick? He fills a need. His injury would keep him out of summer league, training camp, and possibly the start of the year. He would most likely not contribute this year. He would essentially be a pick for the future, similar to a draft and stash.

But is his upside worth it? Valanciunas was a similar high pick despite the prospect of waiting.

Seems at 8 we are looking at Len and his considerable question marks. Or Muhammad and his issues.

Len would be a last resort if pretty much all of the top guys and players I prefer over Len (CJ, Bennett, and Olynyk) are all gone. Only then would I take Len. I'd rather take Trey Burke over Len.

The last thing Ernie needs to do is take another project big on.

DCZards wrote:Consig, your top draft board pretty much mirrors mine, except that I’d put both Len and Muhammad ahead of Burke and Oladipo if I’m drafting for the Zards.

While the Zards could certainly use a combo guard and someone (other than Wall) who can create for his teammates and himself, I just don’t see Burke filling that role. I see Burke as strictly a PG (given his size and strength) and not someone who can log a lot of minutes playing next to Wall.

VO is a tremendous defender and athlete, but he’s just a so-so shooter (at least at this point) and at his size (which I expect to be 6-5 or less) I don’t see Oladipo playing anywhere other than SG where Beal will be getting the lion’s share of the minutes.

Len has an unreal upside, imo, mostly because of his size and athleticism. I would find it hard to pass over that potential for a Burke or Oladipo, particularly given the value of a shotblocking, glass-eating big man in today’s NBA.

I think a lot of people on this board are sleeping on Muhammad. As you point out, he has a “high end NBA skill,” and that’s his ability to score in a variety of ways. Muhammad’s got a nice shooting touch from the perimeter and he’s very good at using his toughness and strength to score in the paint. And, according to all reports, he plays hard ALL the time. Does Muhammad have shortcomings (passing, ballhandling, shooting efficiency), of course. But I think he can improve in those areas. It would be a mistake to look at him as a finished product after one year of college ball.

Yes, we've definitely been consistently on the same page this draft. You mentioned something about Oladipo that has also had me worried this entire draft cycle, and it's something that reminds me a lot of Singleton. I'm not arguing they're the same player, they clearly aren't, but their skill sets, and what they were repped for before and after their final seasons were darn near identical. Hard workers, elite defenders, and they couldn't shoot. Both had significantly better seasons shooting in their final season than they ever had before. We know what came of that with Singleton. He dropped back down to the bulk of his shooting history, turning again into an unreliable shooter after a career season in '10-'11. It really worries me that Oladipo had a career season shooting the ball this past year. Is it small sample size, one year of good shooting, w/a career of largely middling to poor shooting before that, or is it the beginning of a superior stroke, superior ability to put the ball in the hoop? I don't know, and at the end of the day, that's what bothers me about him. Singleton had a virtually identical write up in 2011, the only major differences are that obviously Singleton was a 3 with the ability to step in at 4 occasionally, while Oladipo is clearly a 2, who might be able to play a little 3 but it would be a stretch, and that Oladipo is considering superior athletically, and also younger at this stage in his development than Singleton was. People forget, however, that Singleton was considered a defensive mastermind who could defend every position, and was fantastic on that aspect of the game. Oladipo isn't superior to what Singleton was defensively his last year, and Singleton actually had more versatility.

Hopefully it's unnecessary to worry about this, they are different players after all, it just concerns me a bit.

In regards to Muhammad, Ford has mentioned at least three separate times how "hard" Muhammad plays, and that he is a really "hard worker".

That doesn't jibe at all with the rips he's taking on this board. In addition to issues with his size, and him being overage (and a fraud in that sense), the biggest hits continually are on his character, and the way he plays.

Well if he has legit NBA scoring ability, and every scouting report I've come across agrees on that point AND he works his but off, and plays hard as hell. Then why on earth wouldn't we want that, and how does it really jibe with the idea that he's basically a bad guy, and a 1 note player. A player who plays his butt off, and works hard and has an elite NBA skill is by his very nature one of the best five or six prospects in this draft, and inherently better, at least now as a prospect, than any of the lower rated guys that keep getting placed ahead of him on so many fans boards.

I think people are letting admittedly a mix of heavy negatives, the "age" lie, whether he knew it or not, the selfish play talk about his time at UCLA, and the 1 note issue in terms of NBA skills, all legit, dictate their view without paying attention to his positives, which are all things we could use: another hard worker like Beal, another play hard guy, like Wall, and another quality scorer, like Beal. All great things.

Interesting reading Fords latest chat after a three week absence:

"...Chad Ford
(1:01 PM)



I think Trey Burke is still rising. Could go as high as the No. 1 pick. Lots of scenarios where he is No. 2 or No. 3 off the board. PGs are always coveted and Burke's spectacular season continues to intrigue people. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dennis Schroeder also fast risers.

Chad Ford
(1:04 PM)



My mocks are reported pieces, not what I feel. Now a few caveats. One, I don't think any team KNOWS who they are taking in May. Some teams don't decide until draft night. A few don't decide until they are on the clock. So predicting in May is obviously a problem. Two, team sources, from time to time, give me misleading information. So ... take it for what it's worth in May. As for Ledo, yes, hearing a number of teams in the late first are giving him a serious look.

Chad Ford
(1:11 PM)



Nate Robinson is really helping [Pierre] Jackson's cause right now. Both are amazing athletes and big time scorers. Pierre is actually a better PG than Nate. He's going No. 25 to Clippers in our latest mock, but he's a guy who I think is still underrated.

How will Alex Len's ankle surgery effect him in the draft?

Chad Ford
(1:12 PM)



I don't think it will hurt him. However, had he been able to workout, I think he would've shined in that setting and could have potentially helped his stock. We have him going No. 8 to the Wizards in our latest Mock. Before the injuries I saw scenarios where he could have been the No. 2 or No. 3 pick. Still might, but hard to move up the board when you are injured.

will (Michigan)



Can shabazz muhammad turn into something special in the league?

Chad Ford
(1:16 PM)



Not sure he has the athletic ability and size to be special. Then again ... he plays really hard, looks to score and is a hard worker. That will help.

In past drafts there has been a plethora of euro's taken any time there is a so-called weak draft, how many do you see going in the first round this year?

Chad Ford
(1:19 PM)



We are projecting 6 in our latest mock -- Dario Saric, Rudy Gobert, Sergey Karasev, Dennis Schroeder, Giannis Adetokunbo, Alex Abrines. Brazilian Lucas Noguiera and Livio Jean-Charles are also possibilities in the first round.


How concerned are NBA teams with Anthony Bennett's shoulder?

Chad Ford
(1:25 PM)



Not very. Everyone knew he played through the injury at UNLV. While teams obviously prefer to draft healthy players, having the surgery now probably helps his stock. Teams will be able to see the results from the surgery and it means Bennett should be back at full speed for training camp. Doubt it changes anything as to where he's drafted.


Chad Ford
(1:26 PM)



Too early. Have to see where players are drafted. Opportunity matters as much as talent in ROY races. Think CJ McCollum could be a sleeper pick for the trophy however on the right team.

jack (minneapolis)



How high can Mccollum go? I hope my wolves grab him at nine.

Chad Ford
(1:30 PM)



Very high. Could see the Suns taking him. Magic too. Such a lethal scorer and shooter. If he can prove he's a PG, he's going to go very high.


The biggest crap shoot in the draft -- by far -- is Giannis Adetokunbo from Greece. Looks great against very weak talent in the 2nd division of Greece. But how his game translates to the NBA game? Even the most confident scouts and GMs I know don't have a clue. Could be great, could be a bust.


Steve (Bushwick)



Do you see Victor Oladipo playing a similar role as young defensive minded athletic guards like Shumpert and Bradley?

Chad Ford
(1:39 PM)



Exactly ...


Matt (Fort Collins)



What kind of feedback will teams have an Anthony Bennett's shoulder if it's only a month removed from surgery? Is it pure guesswork or will they have access to records/rehab? He doesn't drop at all?

Daniel (Pittsburg )



Top 6 Point Gaurds in 2013 Class

Chad Ford
(2:01 PM)



1. Trey Burke; 2. CJ McCollum; 3. Michael Carter-Williams; 4. Shane Larkin; 5. Dennis Schroeder; 6. Pierre Jackson"

Severn Hoos wrote:

nate33 wrote:Calling all draft gurus (Ruzious, Dat2U, CCJ, SevernHoos, stevemcqueen1, SUPERBALLMAN, etc.).

I have a mission for you: Find me the next Danny Gibson/Derek Fisher/Mario Chalmers - a 3&D PG. With John Wall in the fold, we have the flexibility to fit one of these guys on the roster. The great thing about them is that they're dirt cheap because few teams can fit them in defensively. But if you have a PG with SG size, you can make it work. It's like adding a starting caliber player for the price of a 10th man. Hopefully there's somebody like that available in the 2nd round.

Whatever happened to Marcus Denmon? I thought he might be that type of player.

I like the Seth Curry idea, although as has been mentioned, he's a lot more 3 than D.

One thing that should be pointed out - Fisher, Chalmers, and I'll throw in Avery Bradley - were all picked in the 19-25 range. It's kind of like Taj Gibson (and our own T-Booker), in that there's an impression these were 2nd round gems, but to find that type of role player you often do need to be in the latter half of the 1st round. (Daniel Gibson was a 2nd round pick, but he's also not as much of a defender as some of the others, IMO.) So I'd temper any enthusiasm around finding "that guy" in the late 30s.

In addition, I don't see many of that type of player in this draft regardless. I was all over Chalmers, and would probably have been the only guy happy to have picked him over McGee. [EDIT: I had remembered Chalmers in the discussion for a late teens/early 20s pick, but looked it up and he was indeed a 2nd rounder, #34.] I also liked Collison a lot (who was drafted in the 1st round, #21 - maybe he's the one I was thinking of), and thought he was a great value as a backup, change-of-pace PG who was a pesky defender. His problem was that he got a starter's contract and couldn't live up to it. But again, no one jumps out at me in this mold for this year's draft.

One name I hadn't seen before is Dennis Schroeder from Germany. Raise your hand if you pictured this guy when you read "Dennis Schroeder from Germany":



Apparently, he went nuts at the Hoop Summit and has jumped into the first round. Seems like a really high-risk, high-reward pick to me, the exact opposite of a Mario Chalmers. But that's about it from this year's draft.

And FWIW, if Shane Larkin is there at #38, I would have no problem taking him. Not exactly the profile you're describing, but he's a real talent and clearly makes his teammates better, so he'd be worth a pick, IMO.

Just noticed Pierre Jackson has been mentioned - I'd also be in favor of adding him. Probably best course would be to use the late 2nd on Jackson or Curry, one or both might still be on the board at that point, if you believe the mocks.

I see you corrected yourself regarding Chalmer's draft position (good catch). I'm with you, he was a no brainer second round pick and I was furious when EG passed on him (can't remember whether we sold the pick, traded it or picked someone else). Don't know how EG still has a job.

tontoz wrote:Looked to me like Bazz only played hard when he had the ball in his hands. And his lack of rebounding is definitely an issue on a team that only has one big who is a good rebounder (and he is on an expiring deal).

I would agree that he looks like an ordinary athlete.

The remarks both Aldridge and Ford have alluded to with regards to Muhammad have continually harped on the idea that he always plays really hard, hell its an asset. I don't understand how something that all scouts refer to as one of his chief assets, is being looked at as a liability. Effort, play hard, and work hard are definitely not concerns with him. The chief concerns are working the rest of the stat line/being a more complete player, refining his game so he's more than a physical player, getting in better shape, and his size which isn't ideal. His work rate, and his effort are two of his greatest assets alongside his simple ability to score. Plenty to take issue with, no doubt, but not his effort, dedication, or level of intensity while playing.

Nate Robinson is really helping [Pierre] Jackson's cause right now. Both are amazing athletes and big time scorers. Pierre is actually a better PG than Nate. He's going No. 25 to Clippers in our latest mock, but he's a guy who I think is still underrated.

............


WOW
He has Pierre going in the first
It wasn't long ago I was hoping we could get him for free because he wasn't even on the board. Now that is climbing the charts.

Funny to read him mentioning that about Nate Robinson and Pierre because I was just about to post that yesterday.

He also mentioned Len could have gone ( and still might go ) top 2 or 3 which is something I posted not to long ago.

CJM going 6th in one of the lottery machine spins.

Dieng at 12th. Withey still moving up as well.

He still have VO ranked high also.

Hmmm. Always nice to read stuff from the "experts" that supports the stuff you post.

This could end up being a very interesting draft. Very fluid. Specially at the top. As of right now, I think VO and Bennett are two names that could slip come draft day. And of course Zeller.

Man this draft just becomes more confusing.

To me the interesting thing Ford says about Len, as it pertains to the Wizards, is the injury will probably keep him from moving up pre-draft, leaving him available for the Wizards at 8. If not for the injury he could of helped himself in workout to move up potentially as high as 2.

If that's the case, he could be a bargain at 8, and worth the wait in terms of both his health and development.

Also, looking at his report on Olynyk, he seems to think his future position could be stretch 4. That is causing me to rethink his fit on the Wizards.


For the Wizards, based on team need, skill, upside, fit, this is what I'm thinking right now in terms of ranking...

1. Porter
2. Bennett
3. McCollum
4. Len
5. Olynyk

The player that excites me the most is Porter. I love the thought of adding Porter as a foundation piece with Beal and Wall.

From a personality perspective, as well as his skillset, both of which seem to fit in with Wall and Beal like a perfect puzzle piece. His length, defense, his demeanor, rebounding, IQ, toughness, shooting, passing, effort and hustle, composure, aptitude, energy, steals, communication, leadership. He is the one I REALLY want to come out of the draft with.

And I don't see a conflict with Webster, with Porter's game mirroring Ariza's more, showing that a Porter and Webster rotation could be an excellent match, and allowing the Wizards to move on from Ariza and his large salary space.

I've maintained for some time a Porter and Muscala draft would be phenomenal. I could see them both fitting in really well.

My 2nd round ranking for our 37 would be...

1. Muscala
2. Green
3. Murphy

nate, as far as that 3&D guard...

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Michael-Snaer-5687/