RealGM

Now that the roster is basically set, check in with your early forecast what our results may be in the forthcoming season.

Notes
We return essentially the same team as last year, re-inking surprise standout Martell Webster to a long term deal and swissarmyknife back-up perimeter player Garrett Temple. Of last years players who earned significant minutes we swap out only pass first PG Eric Maynor for defensive game manager AJ Price. The team also chucked shot-happy 2 Guard Jordan Crawford like an offbalance three point heave 3 seconds into the shot clock.

Key additions:
r-Otto Porter Jr, SF
r-Glen Rice Jr, SG
Eric Maynor PG, 4yrs

Health issues.
Last year the team had three key players entering the season rehabbing from procedures or injuries:

In his early season struggles it was overlooked that C Emeka Okafor quietly had his knee scoped in a minor procedure. His play picked up as he rounded into shape the 2nd half of the year.

Last off season newly acquired big man Nene played basically a brazlilian games in overseas ball despite finishing the season on a wounded foot with plantar faciiitis. This seasons 2014 FIBA World Cup Qualifiers may or may not be a lighter schedule than last year's Olympic games (Aug 30- Sep 11 in Venezuela) but the gap between end of season and the Tourney of the Americas allows that bent kickstand more rest and rehab to recover.

John Wall's furious offseason workout schedule caused discomfort in his knee and second options showed that he was at risk of a significant stress injury. Minor procedure to avert bigger disaster was recommended. Taking time for a cautious and conservative rehab schedule he seems to have recovered with a vengeance.

Offseason is always a danger for more injuries, but at least going into the summer we don't limp out the door. Nene still has the fasciitis, but rest is prescription for recovery and he'll have had a few months by August.

Newly acquired PG Eric Maynor was on a long slow recovery from major ACL surgery, its possible he's reaching a new peak after rehab.

ROSTER:
Probable Starters
PG John Wall
2G Bradley Beal
SF Martell Webster
PF Nene
C Emeka Okafor

When healthy the team played at a 50+ win clip. When not, we put up a record that landed us the 3rd pick in the draft. Together we were in contention for the 9th seed. Banking on development from rookies and youth who had shown promise in past years left us disappointed. This year we enter the season with the following reserves.

Depth (not in any particular order)
PG Eric Maynor
2G Garrett Temple, Glen Rice Jr
SF Trevor Ariza, Otto Porter Jr, Chris Singleton
PF Trevor Booker, Jan Vesely
C Kevin Seraphin

Did I miss anyone? Looks like we have one open roster spot, and minimal money. Meaning we still lack depth behind either Big Man or our franchise PG. Which means an injury at either position puts us in the tankstakes. Clever perhaps to load up talent and depth at a few positions first to allow us the chance to both contend when healthy or bottom out if not. A diabolical plan.

HOWEVER there will be significant competition in the race to the bottom this year as the talent looks top shelf.

We do have trade assets at least in expiring contracts of productive players Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor, playing well and entering their contract years. Could a midseason trade of either player alter our future for the better and add long term depth at a key position? SURE COULD!

But what will happen? Happiness? Abject misery? The usual 15/85 mix of both?

Post your predictions below.

Barring injuries...45 wins.

Injuries are a part of the game and at some point, Wall, Beal and/or Nene are going to go down for a stretch.

If we had absolutely perfect health, my prediction would be 48-34.

However, taking a more realistic approach, I'm putting the prediction at 42-40 and the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference.

Given that there looks to be about several teams in the East alone that look to be tanking the season for the 2014 draft (Magic, 76ers, Hawks, Bobcats and Celtics and one more who might go that route in the Bucks) and I definitely think we'll be picking up some cheap wins next year. Barring heavy injuries I'll be shocked if we're not the sixth or seventh seen next year with a possibility of catching the Knicks at 5 if they drop back to the pack).

I think 47 wins sounds about right.

44-38, same record as the championship season

PS: I built a little Wizards luck into that record, but assumed John Wall was largely healthy and playing 2700-2800 minutes. A little more bad Wizards luck could bring them down to late lottery territory (36-39 wins). One or more of the rookies, Maynor, or any of VesGlePhin surprising, coupled with general health, could push it up into top half of playoff seeding.

36 wins

Wall misses 10 games due to injury, we go 1-9 in those games, 38-34 in games he starts. We squeak into playoffs as 8th seed and get swept in 4 by Miami. Nene misses large chunk of season & playoffs due to injuries.

Vesely comes back to training camp with newly built body and confident jumper in practice. Wiz extend his option and Vesely "breaks out" as 18-20 minute rotation worthy player, averaging more than 5 pts & 4 rebs a game.

Seraphin gets force fed a ton of minutes in Nene's absence and puts up solid per game numbers which will raise his profile but he'll be inconsistent & inefficient as ever. 12 pts 5 rebs in over 25 minutes.

Wall will get off to another slow start next season but really settling in after the holidays but will snubbed in getting an all-star appearance. Wiz will go through a 18-7 stretch after the all-star break before Nene goes down which Ernie & Ted will point to as evidence that everything is on the right track and with better health, the Wizards "can beat anyone on any given night".

Porter gets lost in the shuffle as he starts year as 3rd SF and can't beat out Webster & Ariza for minutes. Wiz end up keeping Ariza because of Webster's nagging injuries and a fear that Porter isn't quite ready.

Beal modestly improves his 2nd season and displays more consistency but still loses a chunk of games to various injuries.

After a very slow start Maynor is the biggest surprise of the roster and plays well when Wall goes down but it doesn't show in the win column. While not lighting up the stat sheet, teammates universally praise his ability to make other around him better. Maynor indicates he'll opt out at the end of the year and Ernie makes it clear he's one of the off-season's biggest priorities.

44 wins

I think we are going to be the 6th seed by default. Some teams are going to be bad next season, and someone is going to have to take the last 3 spots.

I'm still thinking we might make a move with Ariza.

If I were on a one year deal in the front office, I wouldn't draft someone with the third pick and then put him in a situation where he's probably third string.

While I don't believe that would have any bearing on Porter's long term trajectory, a touch of the ole "He a Bust" talk come next February isn't the sort of thing that the Grunner's hoping to splash on a billboard. If Porter really was a guy who was selected to bolster Ernie's security, it might be a good idea if he.....oh, I don't know.....maybe actually played basketball for the Washington Wizards next year during live-fire regular season games.

We shall see. If we stick with the got-already-guys, the rationale would seem to be from amongst:

A) We're committed to not snorting our powder and have a plan - yes, a plan! - on doing something next offseason with cap space. I ain't real bullish on the obvious targets, though.

B) More humbly and thus likely, we're looking to see if we can salvage an Ernie's Kid® or two with another chance in the big-boy-pants. Nothing says contract extension for Ernie like a good neener-neener of a Ted's Take post where 'it-was-all-part-of-the-plan' language rubs it in the grill of anyone who doubted that Seraphin and Vesely had upper tier mediocrity in them. As a hedge, we'll go small more than most if/when this doesn't work. This is so very, very us.

Despite those misgivings, as it stands, 45 wins is a good over-under number and I might well take the over. Sure, the Wizards have weaknesses, but that's true of everyone.

44 is my best guess.

I think we make the playoffs, no lower than 6th seed. A couple of teams who made the playoffs this year (Celtics and Hawks) will be tanking hard.

Wish I could wait until we see who Ariza is traded-for before making a prediction. Injuries or no injuries, we are out of excuses for not making the playoffs this-year. 42 wins.

Fitty-32. We get a 5 seed, get to the 2nd round in a monumental upset beat the Heat. LBJ joins the Wiz next season to collect rings with Wall and my brain melts.

Dat2U wrote:Wall misses 10 games due to injury, we go 1-9 in those games, 38-34 in games he starts. We squeak into playoffs as 8th seed and get swept in 4 by Miami. Nene misses large chunk of season & playoffs due to injuries.

Vesely comes back to training camp with newly built body and confident jumper in practice. Wiz extend his option and Vesely "breaks out" as 18-20 minute rotation worthy player, averaging more than 5 pts & 4 rebs a game.

Seraphin gets force fed a ton of minutes in Nene's absence and puts up solid per game numbers which will raise his profile but he'll be inconsistent & inefficient as ever. 12 pts 5 rebs in over 25 minutes.

Wall will get off to another slow start next season but really settling in after the holidays but will snubbed in getting an all-star appearance. Wiz will go through a 18-7 stretch after the all-star break before Nene goes down which Ernie & Ted will point to as evidence that everything is on the right track and with better health, the Wizards "can beat anyone on any given night".

Porter gets lost in the shuffle as he starts year as 3rd SF and can't beat out Webster & Ariza for minutes. Wiz end up keeping Ariza because of Webster's nagging injuries and a fear that Porter isn't quite ready.

Beal modestly improves his 2nd season and displays more consistency but still loses a chunk of games to various injuries.

After a very slow start Maynor is the biggest surprise of the roster and plays well when Wall goes down but it doesn't show in the win column. While not lighting up the stat sheet, teammates universally praise his ability to make other around him better. Maynor indicates he'll opt out at the end of the year and Ernie makes it clear he's one of the off-season's biggest priorities.

You're just a ray of f*cking sunshine, aren't you?

nuposse04 wrote:Fitty-32. We get a 5 seed, get to the 2nd round in a monumental upset beat the Heat. LBJ joins the Wiz next season to collect rings with Wall and my brain melts.

LeQueen is not coming to DC.

82-0

I'm pretty impressed with the defense, passing and 3 point shooting with this years team..

Passing: Wall, Porter, Nene
Shooting: Wall*, Beal, Ariza, Webster, Porter*
Defense: Wall, Beal, Porter, Ariza, Okafor
Rebounding: Wall, Beal, Porter, Okafor

*I expect Wall to improve to 35-38% on his 3 pointers, and Porter to shoot about the same..

I'm going for 48 wins.

I'm going big. 50 wins 4th seed.

30 win. Like last season.

Beal sits out the first 30 games. Nene sits out the first and last 30 games.

Oka sits out about 10 games.

Webster sits out half the season .

Wall plays but with DLeague teammates.

Singleton get starter time
And jan as well.

Wizards get top 6 draft pick.

WizardsWorld wrote:82-0

I think that would be a franchise record.