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The best thing for this franchise is to finish something like 28-54 and get back into the lottery. There is nothing about a one and done playoff experience for Wall and Beal that trumps:

Getting Wittman fired
Getting Ernie fired
Getting a top 10 pick in a historically deep draft

Making the playoffs would be a disaster for us, because we end up with no pick, we resign everyone, which caps us at a 4 seed at best, and we retain Grunfeld.

I fear we are too good to tank as long as Wall is healthy. A healthy Wall in the pathetic East will carry us to at least a .400 win percentage over the remaining 47 games. That's 19 more wins for a total of 35 wins. 35 wins might even be enough to make the playoffs, and if we don't, we'd be looking at the #10 or #11 draft pick, not a top 7 pick.

I think the path we are on now will lead to the exodus of Wittman and EG this summer. If we finish with a 40-44 record in a historically bad conference despite good health and a mortgaged future first, that should be enough to get EG canned.

My biggest concern is that I think we are going to go on a major win streak in late March and April when the rest of the teams give up. I could see us going 16-4 over our final 20 games or something crazy like that. It'll feel real good at the time and people will forget all about our struggles for most of the year as we finish with a 45-39 record.

nate33 wrote:My biggest concern is that I think we are going to go on a major win streak in late March and April when the rest of the teams give up. I could see us going 16-4 over our final 20 games or something crazy like that. It'll feel real good at the time and people will forget all about our struggles for most of the year as we finish with a 45-39 record.

That scenario could be especially painful if followed by an elimination in the 1st round. The tiny silver lining would be that would probably put the pick going to Phoenix in the early 20s. Although on the other side, it would probably make keeping Gortat more costly.

So Chaos. Your ready to get your Get you tank on. Tank-o-matic

God. Who knows with this team. They just seem so unsettled still. And the Randy offense has been exposed for what it is.

I expect another starting line up change on the way. Its either going to be Ves, Kevin or Randy will put AH in there when he gets healthy. Something tell me at a min we get the last one.

Nate, I'd be happy and reassured by 45 wins. The team will have met my expectations if they do that. It'd be a step forward, part of the natural progression of going from an awful team to a good one.

I also wouldn't devalue late season success to the point where a late season run wouldn't be meaningful. I don't think the players or coaches really quit at the end of the season because they're fighting for their careers a lot of the time.

My expectations for what they'll do in the playoffs depends on their seeding. If it's 7 or 8, we're going to get embarrassed. Probably a sweep or maybe a 5 game affair. If it's 5 or 6, that's probably a loss too. Toronto is better than us, whether they get the three or the four seed. If it's 4, then whoever gets 3 will probably be better than us too.

But if we get the 4 seed somehow, then we'd have a legit shot to get past the first round. And checking that playoff series victory off the list of accomplishments for Wall is best to do ASAP. Because that thing can go from being a monkey to a gorilla on your back very quick. And contrary to what a lot of people believe, I think it would be extremely valuable for Wall and Beal to get some experience with playoff basketball. And to have LeBron and Wade show them how it's done.

I don't believe in the "get good and then win" philosophy. I don't really think getting playoff experience for wall and Beal is a big deal either. Obtaining talent is more important than anything else...the rest is just lip service. More talent will bring us more wins in the regular and post seasons...more so than experience, a better coach, etc.

Talent trumps all else.

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nate33 wrote:I fear we are too good to tank as long as Wall is healthy. A healthy Wall in the pathetic East will carry us to at least a .400 win percentage over the remaining 47 games. That's 19 more wins for a total of 35 wins. 35 wins might even be enough to make the playoffs, and if we don't, we'd be looking at the #10 or #11 draft pick, not a top 7 pick.

I think the path we are on now will lead to the exodus of Wittman and EG this summer. If we finish with a 40-44 record in a historically bad conference despite good health and a mortgaged future first, that should be enough to get EG canned.

My biggest concern is that I think we are going to go on a major win streak in late March and April when the rest of the teams give up. I could see us going 16-4 over our final 20 games or something crazy like that. It'll feel real good at the time and people will forget all about our struggles for most of the year as we finish with a 45-39 record.

Were only a Nene injury from having a real solid tank. And considering were almost completely healthy, and been non-competitive in 4 out of the last 5, tanking isn't as tough as it would seem with Wittman doing a sufficient job of under coaching these guys to the point where our offense is completely ineffective against any team that's willing to put forth an effort defensively.

45 wins seems completely unrealistic for this bunch. I'm not worried about that type of performance because this roster is allergic to having too much success. As soon as they win 3 or 4 they get complacent and lazy and come out flat and lose whatever momentum they've built.

Dat2U wrote:

nate33 wrote:I fear we are too good to tank as long as Wall is healthy. A healthy Wall in the pathetic East will carry us to at least a .400 win percentage over the remaining 47 games. That's 19 more wins for a total of 35 wins. 35 wins might even be enough to make the playoffs, and if we don't, we'd be looking at the #10 or #11 draft pick, not a top 7 pick.

I think the path we are on now will lead to the exodus of Wittman and EG this summer. If we finish with a 40-44 record in a historically bad conference despite good health and a mortgaged future first, that should be enough to get EG canned.

My biggest concern is that I think we are going to go on a major win streak in late March and April when the rest of the teams give up. I could see us going 16-4 over our final 20 games or something crazy like that. It'll feel real good at the time and people will forget all about our struggles for most of the year as we finish with a 45-39 record.

Were only a Nene injury from having a real solid tank. And considering were almost completely healthy, and been non-competitive in 4 out of the last 5, tanking isn't as tough as it would seem with Wittman doing a sufficient job of under coaching these guys to the point where our offense is completely ineffective against any team that's willing to put forth an effort defensively.

45 wins seems completely unrealistic for this bunch. I'm not worried about that type of performance because this roster is allergic to having too much success. As soon as they win 3 or 4 they get complacent and lazy and come out flat and lose whatever momentum they've built.

We've been non-competitive in 4 out of our last 5 because we've played really good teams in 4 out of our last 5. Good teams beat us because we're not any good. But there are a lot of awful teams in the East, and we can beat awful teams because we're not awful either.

Check out this stretch of games in late February/early March:

vs New Orleans Pelicans
@ Cleveland Cavaliers
vs Orlando Magic
@ Toronto Raptors
@ Philadelphia 76ers
vs Memphis Grizzlies
vs Utah Jazz
@ Milwaukee Bucks
@ Miami Heat
vs Charlotte Bobcats
@ Orlando Magic
vs Brooklyn Nets

We could go 9-3 over this stretch, losing to just Miami, Memphis and Toronto.

Our last 9 games of the season are:

@ Charlotte
vs Boston
@ NY Knicks
vs Chicago
vs Charlotte
@ Orlando
vs Bucks
@ Miami
vs Celtics

We could honestly win all of them if Miami rests their starters. We should be favorites to win 7 of them with only @NY and @MIA where we would be underdogs.

I was expecting the Wizards to fall back a bit. Too many off days, and a somewhat cupcake schedule the last two months. Now it's catching up, back to backs, 4 games in 5 nights type of trips, going out West, etc.

I said this in the Indy game thread, it would have been nice to take at least 1 out of the Houston/Indiana games, but we didn't. I think this team has a chance to go 6-6 the rest of the way. We're too good to tank, but if they shut Beal and Nene down, then all bets are off.

According to Jalen Rose, who I find is accurate a good percentage of the time, a lot of teams are going to be disappointed in this draft.

1. There might not be any "clear cut" franchise saving players in this draft like Lebron
2. Some of the players that teams are tanking for might stay in school an extra year...so the tanking will be for not.
3. This is a REALLY DEEP draft (sigh...I so dislike Ernie), so getting the 11th pick might be as good as getting the 1st.


At this point, I don't think we should tank. Unfortunately, I don't see how we recover from our capped out/low ceiling situation.

noworriesinmd wrote:2. Some of the players that teams are tanking for might stay in school an extra year...so the tanking will be for not.
3. This is a REALLY DEEP draft (sigh...I so dislike Ernie), so getting the 11th pick might be as good as getting the 1st.

I think what a good GM would do would be to target acquiring 2015 picks. I would not be surprised to see a decent amount of the expected Sophomores and Juniors to stay in school, and maybe a surprise Freshman or two.

It is part of the reason that the being so close to the tax really stinks for the Wizards. I think a good number of decent teams would be willing to deal a vet signed for 2 years and a 2015 pick with top 3/5 protection for Ariza or Gortat, especially if the Wizards were in a position to take on more salary this year. Or they might not even have to take future salary.

I think this draft will disappoint. I don't think Wiggins/Parker etc. are going to be Lebron, hell even if they end up as good as Wall that may take a few years.

We aren't gonna get a top 3 pick, so I'd rather make the playoffs and get our young guys a taste of post-season experience then get like the 9th pick.

noworriesinmd wrote:According to Jalen Rose, who I find is accurate a good percentage of the time, a lot of teams are going to be disappointed in this draft.

1. There might not be any "clear cut" franchise saving players in this draft like Lebron
2. Some of the players that teams are tanking for might stay in school an extra year...so the tanking will be for not.
3. This is a REALLY DEEP draft (sigh...I so dislike Ernie), so getting the 11th pick might be as good as getting the 1st.


At this point, I don't think we should tank. Unfortunately, I don't see how we recover from our capped out/low ceiling situation.

Wow so there isn't a LeBron??? Big whoop. How many of those come around in a decade? Once? Never?

The top of draft will be littered with all-stars IMO. Could a bad team use an all-star quality player? Hell yeah.

A bad GM will make this a horrible draft. A good GM will reap the benefits of drafting high. But honestly, you could say that goes for most years. So expect a team like Cleveland or Sacramento to muck up a high pick and be disappointed, while expect a team like Utah or Toronto (if they decide to tank) make the most out of where they land and be very happy with the guy they select going forward.

noworriesinmd wrote:According to Jalen Rose, who I find is accurate a good percentage of the time, a lot of teams are going to be disappointed in this draft.

1. There might not be any "clear cut" franchise saving players in this draft like Lebron
2. Some of the players that teams are tanking for might stay in school an extra year...so the tanking will be for not.
3. This is a REALLY DEEP draft (sigh...I so dislike Ernie), so getting the 11th pick might be as good as getting the 1st.


At this point, I don't think we should tank. Unfortunately, I don't see how we recover from our capped out/low ceiling situation.

You got it nowo

I posted about this in another thread. Love listening to those guys. And yeep.. You don't know who is staying. No one thought Smart would stay and he did. And I remember last draft being all about Shabazz about this time last year. Then leading into the draft, most of us didn't like him as a prospect.

The only thing about the future you know is that you don't know. Things change. Will this be a great draft class ? I have no idea yet.

Higga wrote:I think this draft will disappoint. I don't think Wiggins/Parker etc. are going to be Lebron, hell even if they end up as good as Wall that may take a few years.

We aren't gonna get a top 3 pick, so I'd rather make the playoffs and get our young guys a taste of post-season experience then get like the 9th pick.

Agreed. Post season experience is hugely important. Its an entirely different level of baseball. They need to experience that so they know what actually works at that level and what doesn't so they can work on improving that area of there game. All this long 2 stuff isn't going to work in the playoffs. Teams would crush them if they do that.

You can tell them, but nothing is like experiencing it.

Hell, even doing battle for .500 is a different level of ball they haven't experienced. This team have played so many otherwise meaningless games because they were always 10 games back by this point. Now they are learning just how much they need to show up every night. If not, the playoff is at stake. They haven't felt that level of pressure before. And its only going to increase as the season goes on. So much of the game is mental and about preparation. Hitting this wall getting over .500 is a good learning lesson for them. As will be keeping it if they get over .500

I see this all as a valuable learning lesson for Wall and Beal. Hopefully we see them adapt and grow from it soon. This is already new territory for them.

The more I think about it, the more I want the Wiz to be a 7 or 8 seed. I want them run off the court. Embarrassed, dunked on, humiliated. I want this team to realize they are not even close.

Then out the ashes, I want Wall (closest to superstar we could have) to realize he needs to take his game to another level. Realize that talent alone will not get him to the promised land.

I used to be for tanking, but after a playoff loss...we'll find out what type of team we have next season. One that is worth following emotionally and financially or one that will always have 1/2 priced tickets and should be blown up.

GS and Indiana got it. OKC got it. I don't think the Wiz have an "org" that will get it, but I have higher faith in our players, especially Wall.

I don't advocate tanking, but at the same time how much is playoff experience worth when we probably shouldn't even extend half the roster and we probably wouldn't make the playoffs in a regular year anyway? We're multiple games under .500 in a historically bad East. Rose will be back next year, the Sixers will be a playoff team when they add a Jabari/Wiggins + Noel + free agents to their team, the Knicks and Nets will probably outpace us by years end, Raptors are just legit better, the Hawks will get Horford back, Pistons simply need to solve their frontcourt puzzle...

I just don't want us committing to a rotten core of players just because we fraudulently made the playoffs this year. Playoff experience is great, but when I only want four players staying on this team long term it's kind of worthless.

Good thing is we don't really need to tank. We're legit bad enough as it is. We're an inevitable Nene injury away from hitting the bottom.

I don't think they'll have to intentionally tank because the schedule until the All-Star games is really tough for Washington:

@ Chicago (L)
vs Miami (L)
vs Chicago (50/50)
vs Detroit (50/50)
vs Philadelphia (W)
vs Boston (W)
@ Phoenix (L)
@ Utah on back-to-back (L)
@ GSW (L)
@ LAC (L)
vs OKC (L)
vs PDX (L)
vs SAS (L)
vs Cleveland (W)
vs Sacramento (50/50)
@ Memphis (L)
@ Houston (L)

Out of the 17 games there are 11 guaranteed losses with 3 50/50 games. They'll be a complete mess at the break and based on the character of this roster they'll likely fold like a lawn chair during the break and continue to play AAU front-running ball, i.e. not winning basketball.

Yeah Tank and wait 4 years for them to be an elite top 3 team

Upper Decker wrote:I don't think they'll have to intentionally tank because the schedule until the All-Star games is really tough for Washington:

@ Chicago (L)
vs Miami (L)
vs Chicago (50/50)
vs Detroit (50/50)
vs Philadelphia (W)
vs Boston (W)
@ Phoenix (L)
@ Utah on back-to-back (L)
@ GSW (L)
@ LAC (L)
vs OKC (L)
vs PDX (L)
vs SAS (L)
vs Cleveland (W)
vs Sacramento (50/50)
@ Memphis (L)
@ Houston (L)

Out of the 17 games there are 11 guaranteed losses with 3 50/50 games. They'll be a complete mess at the break and based on the character of this roster they'll likely fold like a lawn chair during the break and continue to play AAU front-running ball, i.e. not winning basketball.

They can conceivably win @CHI and @UTA. But I agree with the rest. All are guaranteed losses.