RealGM

I think Porters removal from the rotation last night and us being a week and a month away from the deadline bears a topic for this discussion.

There's loose talk in one thread or another, but I thought we needed a dedicated thread to discuss the dilemma that is Porter.

A few key questions I'd like to get input on:

What exactly were Ernies intentions with the pick?

Clearly the best case was for Otto to come in and dominate to such a point to where there was no question that he should get major minutes, but this is being very unrealsitic. When Ernie passed on Noel, what was the reasoning? Immediate contribution? Did he think Porter was legitimately the BPA?

It's not like Web and Ariza played poorly last year. It was clear it would be tough for any rookie SF to outplay either of them.

What exactly are the expectations for him in limited minutes?

We all have different opinions about Porter. Some think he's a bust, some thinkn he simply hasn't gotten a fair shot. One thing is certain: Barring injury, the minutes simply aren't there for him right now. Expecting him to outplay two vets having career seasons is just unreasonable. What exactly should we be looking for in the short time that he's out there?

Do we make a roster move?

One thing is certain--Porter and Arizas value are going to drop quickly. If you're going to sell high on either of them, now is the time.

I haven't made it a secret that I want to move Ariza almost solely to see what we have in Porter. We're in desperate need of a third pillar for this team, and I'm willing to forgo shortterm success to see if we have him on the roster.

Another opinion that is popular though, is what's the rush? It can't be argued he has to great SF's to learn from. Is the no pressure, win now, see what happens approach the one we should take? Do we extend Ariza and allow Porter to blossom slowly?

Do we move Porter now while the shine and gloss of being a recent top pick is still there?

Im in the opinion that you keep guys who deserve to be kept and worry about the rest later. We kept Web last year knowing we had Ariza and could draft Porter so I think you keep Ariza this year if reasonable and figure out the other stuff later. You may get a new coach who likes the play small ball alot. You might get a injury to Beal, Ariza, or Webster to the point where they have to miss half a season or more. I just keep the best guys and worry about the rest later. That doesnt mean you dont shop around. Someone might offer you a pick or a player that you cant resist. Then you take that.

If the Wizards don't trade Ariza, the Wizards should consider sending Porter to the D-league if he's cut out of the rotation entirely.

My stupid, speedreading, dyslexic self read this as Otto Porter's Rap Name?

Ottomatopoeia.

I vote for "none of the above." Let Porter sit and learn and get healthy. I have to believe he is not 100 percent, because, even in limited minutes, he is not the confident shooter and passer that he was at Georgetown. Jim Boeheim, who has forgotten more about basketball than any of us actually know, called Porter something like "the greatest player in the history of the Big East." Now that may have been hyperbole (Ewing? Mullin?), but still...

And I, for one, am starving for postseason basketball. I'd like to see the Wiz put the best team possible on the floor. And this season, that means Ariza and Webster at the 3 (sometimes together at the 2-3), with Porter on the bench. Of course we all would like to see more out of the #3 pick in the draft, but maybe Porter just needs more time. Last year a lot of people (me included) were calling Beal a bust. Now he is one of the top SGs in the league and getting better.

So I would ride Ariza into the playoffs and if we lose him as a FA at the end of the year, so be it. What would we possibly get in return for Ariza anyway that would help now or in the future anyway?

You'd be surprised what a team like the Grizz would be willing to give up in order to replace a contract like Prince with Ariza. They might even give up a first.

But overall I get your logic. Although I'd argue unless he gets a ridiculous offer, there's a very good chance we'd extend Ariza if he makes it to the end of the season. If we're not going to pull the trigger on throwing Porter to the Wolves now, I don't see what changes at the end of the season and us making the playoffs. The team will have the same expectations next year.

Fire Grunfeld, trust new GM to move forward

Wait and see. D league would work too

If we can get good value for Ariza (mid first round pick), then sure, trade Ariza. But that's not going to happen. Nobody is going to sacrifice that much for a 3-month rental.

At this point, Ariza nets us a 2nd round pick or maybe a pick in the 25-30 range. That's not a good enough return in my opinion. You don't give up a rock solid starter for a 28th pick. That 28th pick is likely to pan out to be nothing, or maybe it's a bench player for a few years before he becomes a role playing starter going into his contract year.

So I'd rather just keep Ariza. Resign him if the price is right (a few hundred K over the MLE). I'm not worried about Porter. If he's good, he'll get minutes. He's not going to rot away and turn to dust if he doesn't get force fed a ton of minutes in his rookie year.

Ariza is a damn near perfect fit for the Wizards it seems like, really hard to understand what the strategy was with the Porter pick given that we have Webster on the roster as well.

If it was up to me I'd move Porter, not because I think he'll be a bust, but because he's the only piece we have to possible address one of our front court positions with a young player that will be productive when Nene's contract expires following the 2015/16 season.

Larry Sanders is the guy I have in mind specifically. I would love to see the Wizards put together a package that has him share the front court with Nene, while keeping together the core of Webster, Ariza, Beal and Wall.

Of course if you ask me, we shouldn't even be having this discussion right now. Noel should have been our guy.

Porter has no value. Thomas Robinson was 5th is a MUCH STRONGER draft, and he got moved for role players. I suspect many FOs view Porter as a potential bust. He has to show SOMETHING to get a piece.

BTW, Porter isn't cheap as his salary for the 3rd pick is far exceeding his production. If Philly would trade Thad Young for him, I'd do it. Thad Young is only 25.

BTW, I said it on draft day and said it repeatedly throughout our season that picking Porter was foolhardy because there would be no PT if Beal, Ariza, and Webster are all healthy. Watch Noel become the gamechanging defensive big that we lack.

Put it this way, I think Doug McDermott (probably in the 15-25 range in this draft) will have a MUCH better career than Porter will.

Can there be an option 4?

"Only trade Ariza if we get a player of similar value or a good draft pick back in return."

Otherwise, if not, then don't trade Ariza. Then we either save money when he walks in FA and we got to enjoy his play for the whole season. Or we maybe extend him in the summer and look to trade him at a future time.

That's what I would do. It's more about getting value for Ariza than doing anything with Porter.

I liked (and still believe in) Porter before the draft but was jumping for joy when Noel fell to us. Couldn't believe it actually happened. Was certain Ernie would pounce on the opportunity to land a potentially elite defensive big man (rare commodities in the NBA). Ugh.

As to Otto's roadmap, there aren't many options. His value is incredibly low right now. We wouldn't get a good return for him. We also can't play him because he's simply not on the level of Webster or Ariza, and we likely won't send him to the D-League. He's stuck on the end of our bench until either Web or Ariza sustain an injury or Wittman expands his rotations again.

I don't see an Ariza trade on the forefront because, as Nate said, we wouldn't get the kind of return we'd need to replace a legitimate starting caliber 3-man who fits perfectly into our system.

If the right offer came in for OP, I would surely be tempted assuming the
signals from Ariza and his agent were encouraging enough to believe we
had a better than even chance of resigning him. If Ariza leaves and we
trade OP, that would leave us pretty thin at the 3 as much as I like Martell.

We don't need to rush into any rash decisions about OP. He's here on
a rookie deal, even at #3 overall price, for 3-4 years. A lot can happen
in that time. I still believe in his potential.

Guy looks lost out there. I thought he was the most NBA ready pick. Isn't that why we picked him over EVERY other player in the lottery, ALL who had more potential?
He was the safe pick.

Beal/Ariza/Webster/Porter/Rice seems like a really solid wing core.

Our problems are at backup PG, backup C and FC depth.

I think we try to stick with our core wing group and bring Porter and Rice slowly.

That means we have to spend our $$s on a C and backup C for next year and a backup PG.

Well Chicago getting a 1st rounder for Deng got me wondering what we can get for Ariza. The problem in part is that Wall seems to really like Ariza, I've heard him talking very highly of him. He is an ideal 3&D SF and his chemistry with Wall and fit on this team is very good.

I'd hate to give up on Porter so fast given his age, and his lack of any preseason or opportunity to adjust to the NBA. I was very high on him before the draft, and believe he just hasn't had a chance. Beal looked like a potential bust early, and that was with a full offseason, camp, preseason, and early pt. Once he adjusted he took off. Porter to me is somewhat similar to Evan Turner in that he has a high IQ all-around game. Turner was looking like a bust, now this year he's avg almost 19pt, 6 boards, 4 assts a game, at age 25.

I'd stay pat. Ariza gives us the best chance to win now. After the season I would try to retain him with a reasonable deal. Let Porter who is still very young develop as his backup. Worst case Ariza leaves as a FA, we move ahead with Porter/Webster, and have Ariza's cap space to add another piece.

I'm not seeing a 'lost' OP on the court. All he's doing now is trying to
play within himself and not make mistakes that hurt the team. And
it seems to me he is succeeding in that.

He's the same age as Beal with less experience. Whatever was said about him
being NBA ready is really irrelevant. Give the kid time, he's 20 years old and
has played in ? 10 games.

Agreed.

I mean can you guys imagine how slow Beal would have come along if we had a starting two way two guard and backup on the roster having career years while he was playing historically bad basketball the first few months?

And heck, The Celtics are about to get a potential 1st (philly 2015 top 14 protected) for Jordan Crawford. We might have to take back an undesirable contract (like Tayshaun Prince) in a swap, but we can definitely get a 2014 first out of him if we send him to a real playoff contender.