Countdown to Ernie Grunfeld Firing (Part 2)

[Kanyewest]

What's really fascinating is watching the downward trajectory of EG defenses, from "He's good," to "He's above average," to "He's not below average," to "He's not the worst in the league," and finally settling for: "He's better than Joe Schmo off the street," itself a debatable contention.

I think the comment of "Do you think you would do a much better job as a GM than EG" also implies "do you think you would be an above average GM". I think there are a fair share of posters that could have gotten the Wizards to their destination faster (ie in the playoffs) - although I'm not sure that we would be championship quality.

[verbal8]

What's really fascinating is watching the downward trajectory of EG defenses, from "He's good," to "He's above average," to "He's not below average," to "He's not the worst in the league," and finally settling for: "He's better than Joe Schmo off the street," itself a debatable contention.

Isn't that EG's criteria for player selection?

[payitforward]

PIF, on what basis have you determined that MKG has been a better player than Beal?

Presumably, win shares per 48 minutes.

I have no faith whatever in Win Shares, Fish. It's a "dirty" stat -- influenced by who else is on the court.

Both Kevin's roll-up analysis and WP48 correlate to an extremely high degree w/ actual wins and losses of a team. And it's based on the latter that I would usually make a judgment. And did in this case.

Neither of them has been great so far, but MK-G has been a better SF than BB has been at SG. I think they'll both turn out to be outstanding players, btw -- not all that important to compare their development at this early stage. I wrote what I wrote, because Hands had been critical of MK-G.

Beal 2300 mins
MKG 1400 mins

That really jumped out at me.

Really? Why? MK-G has been injured this year and only played 57 games. Last year it was BB who was injured, and MK-G played way more minutes than he did.

Ultimately, however, it's hard to avoid the fact that Drummond would have been a better pick at #2 or #3 -- maybe even at #1 !!? A monster.

[hands11]

No BS, No games, No Shortcuts, do you think you could do or could`ve done a better job than Ernie Grunfeld has done up to this point in his tenure ?

Softball lobbed over center plate.

But isn't this what gets discussed on a regular basis here.

[hands11]

It's fascinating to read how some posters think they would have made ALL of the right draft and personnel decisions if they had only been GM instead of EG.

In general I agree, BUT in this case there have been folks saying at the time that Grunfeld was making mistakes. Many identified at the time moves that would have been preferable. The only "looking back" required is simply to remind ourselves what folks said at the time.

And those same people said they would miss the playoff this year and that trades that worked .. wouldn't and the sky was falling. There was no path forward. Well we talk about those paths forward all the time here.

Just saying.. gain of salt applied.

Lots here hated TA and said he was worst ever and way over paid. He is neither bad nor vastly over paid.
Actually he is good. Not great but good.
They still think Gortat for a mid first was to much. I disagree. Gortat has been amazingly valuable.

One way or another. We are about to see what is and what isn't. Starting tonight and ending in the playoffs. The rest of what we need to see is what happens in the offseason. How much did Wall learn this year.

My position is... Would I have done differently.. Yes.. Many things.
Do I think they did it things inefficiently.. yes
Would they have better players with my suggested draft picks.. yes
Could what they have done still work.. yes
Am I still concerned.. yes

[montestewart]

No BS, No games, No Shortcuts, do you think you could do or could`ve done a better job than Ernie Grunfeld has done up to this point in his tenure ?

Softball lobbed over center plate.

But isn't this what gets discussed on a regular basis here.

Youheardme90 just arrived here after a long trip. All this EG business is brand new.

[dckingsfan]

What's really fascinating is watching the downward trajectory of EG defenses, from "He's good," to "He's above average," to "He's not below average," to "He's not the worst in the league," and finally settling for: "He's better than Joe Schmo off the street," itself a debatable contention.

Sadly, you are correct... that is essentially the debate now. And I consider myself and the other posters Joe Schmo's and you really wonder if most of the posters wouldn't have done a better job.

[hands11]

What's really fascinating is watching the downward trajectory of EG defenses, from "He's good," to "He's above average," to "He's not below average," to "He's not the worst in the league," and finally settling for: "He's better than Joe Schmo off the street," itself a debatable contention.

I don't see that happening at all.

I think people that have 100% hated everything he does/did, still do.
Most the rest here see some good stuff and some bad stuff and call it for what they are.

For me, if they make noise in the playoff or even go to the second round or farther, I will still see it that way. The Maynor deal for two yeas and two years of looking for a back up PG will always be bad .. regardless.

But what can look even better then they do now depending on what they do this year are the.. Nene, Okafor, Gortat, Webster, TA, Miller and Gooden deals. And even Otto is he gets any PT.

[Nivek]

The Wizards have the third worst winning percentage in the NBA during Grunfeld's tenure. It's reasonable to think there are a number of people who could have done better.

[verbal8]

What's really fascinating is watching the downward trajectory of EG defenses, from "He's good," to "He's above average," to "He's not below average," to "He's not the worst in the league," and finally settling for: "He's better than Joe Schmo off the street," itself a debatable contention.

I think the comment of "Do you think you would do a much better job as a GM than EG" also implies "do you think you would be an above average GM". I think there are a fair share of posters that could have gotten the Wizards to their destination faster (ie in the playoffs) - although I'm not sure that we would be championship quality.

Even with hindsight, it becomes clear that building a championship team is hard. Say a competent GM had drafted Curry in 2009. As a rookie he may not have been enough to make the play-offs, but he probably would have kept the Wizards from the being bad enough to get John Wall. Especially if Blair had been selected in the same draft. Say the Wizards get Monroe out of that draft. With competent moves in Free agency/extensions a good GM probably has the team close to the play-offs. Let's say the team ends up with Faried and a depth player like Lavoy Allen from that draft. The team is probably in the play-offs a couple years earlier and may have the chance to add a solid player like Sullinger, but they aren't getting a prospect like Beal. There wasn't a whole lot of late 2nd rounders in 2012 other than Kyle O'Quinn.

In 2013 the team would probably get a guy like Snell, Dieng or Plumlee - since they would be some immediate value. Let's say the pick is Snell.

So the core of the team would be Curry, Monroe and Faried. Sullinger, Snell and Allen would be some young quality depth. That is a decent team, but it doesn't look in any danger of winning a championship. Of course there are also trades and free agency, so a good GM could add a couple good pieces to that group.

[montestewart]

What's really fascinating is watching the downward trajectory of EG defenses, from "He's good," to "He's above average," to "He's not below average," to "He's not the worst in the league," and finally settling for: "He's better than Joe Schmo off the street," itself a debatable contention.

I don't see that happening at all.

I think people that have 100% hated everything he does/did, still do.
Most the rest here see some good stuff and some bad stuff and call it for what they are.

For me, if they make noise in the playoff or even go to the second round or farther, I will still see it that way. The Maynor deal for two yeas and two years of looking for a back up PG will always be bad .. regardless.

But what can look even better then they do now depending on what they do this year are the.. Nene, Okafor, Gortat, Webster, TA, Miller and Gooden deals. And even Otto is he gets any PT.

Well, I definitely do see it, and since I loved the Kwame for Caron trade and thought he did a decent job putting together the Arenas bunch (for a minute), I definitely have not always hated him.

I half-heartedly tried to see the potential positive side of #5 for Miller/Foye, assuming incorrectly that it was part of a larger strategy, rather than the cheese that stands alone. I tried to project the potential benefit of the Nene acquisition and whether it would outweigh the huge long term salary coupled with the injury risk. I didn't outright hate the signings of Daniels and Songaila, was not as vehemently opposed as others to the extension of Blatche or the drafting of Porter or even Singleton. I was able to acknowledge that (like Nene) Okafor, Ariza, Webster, and Gortat were quality veterans, even if I thought the price paid was too high.

But over the years it has become apparent to me that EG's team building is lesser than the sum of its parts. The broad brush of "EG haters" distorts or simply sidesteps a large volume of data and analysis. And EG's defenders, millyilly excepted, get caught up in whether he's really the 26th worst GM in the league, or whether he's in fact 24th best and is being sold short.

Here's my broad brush for EG lovers: Anything that's wrong with the team now is because of Wittman's coaching, and he's only here because Saunders was fired, and Saunders was fired because Arenas and his guns made the Wizards implode, and Arenas was only here because Pollin held one of Arenas' guns to EG's head and said, "Give him the max." It's all Pollin's fault. EG is innocent.

[DCZards]

The Wizards have the third worst winning percentage in the NBA during Grunfeld's tenure. It's reasonable to think there are a number of people who could have done better.

Yes, some of us on this board would have been better GMs than EG and some of us would have been worse. Others of us would probably have the Zards in the same place as EG if we were the GM. But because we can play out our fantasies here on RealGM—with no consequences or risk as it relates to the success or failure of the Zards—most of us here (myself included) have the tendency to live in Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegon, where we are above average (in our GM decision making).

[montestewart]

The Wizards have the third worst winning percentage in the NBA during Grunfeld's tenure. It's reasonable to think there are a number of people who could have done better.

Yes, some of us on this board would have been better GMs than EG and some of us would have been worse. Others of us would probably have the Zards in the same place as EG if we were the GM. But because we can play out our fantasies here on RealGM—with no consequences or risk as it relates to the success or failure of the Zards—most of us here (myself included) have the tendency to live in Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegon, where we are above average (in our GM decision making).

I think there are quite a few of us here that assume we would be below average GMs. What's that got to do with whether we would be better GMs than EG?

[Dat2U]

The Wizards have the third worst winning percentage in the NBA during Grunfeld's tenure. It's reasonable to think there are a number of people who could have done better.

Yes, some of us on this board would have been better GMs than EG and some of us would have been worse. Others of us would probably have the Zards in the same place as EG if we were the GM. But because we can play out our fantasies here on RealGM—with no consequences or risk as it relates to the success or failure of the Zards—most of us here (myself included) have the tendency to live in Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegon, where we are above average (in our GM decision making).

It would be very hard to do worse. I mean, I guess it's possible one could do worse, but it would really be hard. Considering there's only 2 teams with a lower winning percentage out of 30, one could make the assumption that Ernie is in the bottom 10% of his profession.

I also wonder if this Lake Wobegon is where some people still consider Ernie an average GM.

[rockymac52]

The Wizards have the third worst winning percentage in the NBA during Grunfeld's tenure. It's reasonable to think there are a number of people who could have done better.

Yes, some of us on this board would have been better GMs than EG and some of us would have been worse. Others of us would probably have the Zards in the same place as EG if we were the GM. But because we can play out our fantasies here on RealGM—with no consequences or risk as it relates to the success or failure of the Zards—most of us here (myself included) have the tendency to live in Garrison Keillor’s fictional Lake Wobegon, where we are above average (in our GM decision making).

It would be very hard to do worse. I mean, I guess it's possible one could do worse, but it would really be hard. Considering there's only 2 teams with a lower winning percentage out of 30, one could make the assumption that Ernie is in the bottom 10% of his profession.

I also wonder if this Lake Wobegon is where some people still consider Ernie an average GM.

Yeah, but at the same time, being in the bottom 10% of NBA GMs is pretty damn good overall. Let's say Grunfeld is literally the worst GM in the league (I don't agree with this notion at all). He could still very easily be the 30th best GM on the planet at the same time.

[Nivek]

Yeah, but at the same time, being in the bottom 10% of NBA GMs is pretty damn good overall. Let's say Grunfeld is literally the worst GM in the league (I don't agree with this notion at all). He could still very easily be the 30th best GM on the planet at the same time.

No, not really. The best that could be said in this hypothetical is that he would be among the 30 "best" GMs in the NBA. It would be theoretically possible to be 30th best in the world -- meaning that the 30th "best" GM in the NBA could be "better" than every GM of every other team in every other professional basketball league.

But, Grunfeld competes in the NBA, and during his time in Washington, he's largely gotten his ass handed to him.

[tontoz]

I think i would rather live near Lake Wobegon than Denial River.

How many times have we criticized an EG move at the time and been proven right? Seems like a broken record. And the people who preached patience at the time of these blunders turn around and say they don't want to focus on the past. Of course they don't want to admit that their patience and 50 cents won't even buy a soda.

[DCZards]

I think i would rather live near Lake Wobegon than Denial River.

How many times have we criticized an EG move at the time and been proven right? Seems like a broken record. And the people who preached patience at the time of these blunders turn around and say they don't want to focus on the past. Of course they don't want to admit that their patience and 50 cents won't even buy a soda.

Cute...and full of worn out cliches.

[montestewart]

Yeah, but at the same time, being in the bottom 10% of NBA GMs is pretty damn good overall. Let's say Grunfeld is literally the worst GM in the league (I don't agree with this notion at all). He could still very easily be the 30th best GM on the planet at the same time.

Theoretically, I suppose, but not very easily at all. If you are the worst GM in the NBA, I would say it is nearly impossible that you could also be better than any other possible candidate on the planet.

Further, this whole "Could you have done better?" conversation is silly. There are people here who, given the same resources, could surely do a better job, but that is beside the point. EG's been training for this job all his life, gets paid a huge salary, has a large staff for scouting, training, medical, coaching, etc. He has a large budget, years of experience, league wide connections, and on and on, and he has been in this exact job for more than ten years. And this is the best we get? EG's mere assumption of his position doesn't mean he's good at his job.

[tontoz]

I think i would rather live near Lake Wobegon than Denial River.

How many times have we criticized an EG move at the time and been proven right? Seems like a broken record. And the people who preached patience at the time of these blunders turn around and say they don't want to focus on the past. Of course they don't want to admit that their patience and 50 cents won't even buy a soda.

Cute...and full of worn out cliches.

You would certainly be the expert on worn out posts.