Page 1 of 4
How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coach?
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:48 am
by dckingsfan
Please let us know how many games you think we would win if Thibodeau was our coach.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:58 am
by dckingsfan
hands11 wrote:Yet even with all of that, there were at least 8-10 post games that clearly identified Randy making obvious blunders that could have won games due to time outs, his offense, his subs patterns and his inability to have his team ready in the first quarter or 3 quarter including adjustments. I can't name them game by game right now but I recall it being obvious stuff after at least that many games.
Stuff like we just saw the other game when he didn't have Nene in for the last defensive stand. I don't want to hear some BS about min restriction. It would have been 15 more seconds of which he would be standing under the basket for 10 of it hardly moving. Instead, CHA got an easy layup by A Jefferson in no time at all. That's one L right there. Should have never gone to OT. And there were other just as stupid.
In the CHI game, who didn't know Tibbs would go right at Booker to start the game and that you needed to focus on stopping D.J. Augustin, except Randy. Should have started KS with Nene out and put Temple in to cover D.J. Augustin. You know, Temple in.. just like when they won the previous two games against CHI. They might have lost anyway, but Randy never gave them a chance.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:04 pm
by nate33
50-52.
I think we have more talent that the Bulls, and the Bulls are about to win 49.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:24 pm
by dckingsfan
I think Thibs is essentially an upgrade on Whitman on the defensive end of the court. The Bulls are the 2nd ranked defensive team in the L. Part of that has to do with Noah - he is definitely a superstar defender. Boozer, Gibson and Mohammed are also very solid defenders.
I think that Thibs would struggle some with our FC defense (we don't have a lockdown defender in the FC) - but you would see a tremendous amount of trapping from Wall and Ariza. Thibs would probably play Beal 25 min/gm so that would improve our D as well. I would think that Thibs could move us from the 9th ranked defense to the 5th or 6th ranked defense.
On the offensive side of the ball - the Bulls are ranked 28th. Much of the offense runs through Noah. Before the Rose injury, a large majority of the offense ran through Rose. I think that Thibs would have a positive impact on Wall on the offensive side of the ball (and even more on the defensive side). I think most of the improvement that the Wizards would see on the offensive end is the number of fast break points from traps. I think he could improve out offensive ranking by one or two spots.
One of the issues that Chicago has is letting teams back in games and not having the Bulls get up for bad teams. I don't think that would change with this roster. Thibs couldn't get the Bulls to 50 wins even with Noah having a (close to) MVP season. So, I don't think he could get these Wizards to that level either.
Total 3-5 games.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:36 pm
by dckingsfan
nate33 wrote:50-52.
I think we have more talent that the Bulls, and the Bulls are about to win 49.
Beginning of the season
FC comparison - I have a huge edge going to Chicago
Noah, Mohammed > Gortat, Seraphin or Vesely
Boozer, Gibson > Nene, Booker
Later in the season it is closer - but not close
Noah, Mohammed > Gortat, Gooden
Boozer, Gibson > Booker, Harrington
SF
Ariza, Webster > Dunleavy, Snell
SG
Butler > Beal
PG
Wall, Maynor > Hinrich, Augustin
So, I would argue that the talent is much closer than you think and Thibs depends on having a defensive stopper in the FC. And I would argue that the best player by far this season is Noah out of both teams.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:48 pm
by payitforward
hands11 wrote:...I can't name them game by game right now but I recall it being obvious stuff after ....
In the CHI game, who didn't know Tibbs would go right at Booker to start the game and that you needed to focus on stopping D.J. Augustin, except Randy. Should have started KS with Nene out and put Temple in to cover D.J. Augustin. You know, Temple in.. just like when they won the previous two games against CHI. They might have lost anyway, but Randy never gave them a chance.
Love ya, Hands -- but these are typical examples of the
ex post facto fallacy, and unfortunately you tend to think in this way over and over.
In any human situation, what should have been done is "obvious after" the situation is closed. Being able to find a better set of moves in retrospect doesn't make the moves that actually were chosen wrong.
It would be perfectly simple to address a game coached by Thibodeau or any other "elite" coach in the exact same way. After all, if Chicago is good enough to win one game, then they're also good enough to win another one -- one they lost. Hence, if you look at what caused the loss in retrospect, you will certainly find all that "obvious after" stuff you like to locate. And, therefore, you will find the better moves that would have turned that game into a win instead of a loss. Things some imaginary better coach would have done instead of the moves that failed.
But... that means you can identify a route to an 82-0 record -- and not just for lets say the best team in the league, but for e.g. the Bulls. That should be enough to illustrate to you that this way of thinking is false.
Moreover, every additional win by one team is an additional loss by another team. You don't take into account the fact that if *you* make a "better" move, the opposing coach can also make one!
The Chicago game is a perfect example. We were down 52-26 at the half! Your response to that is that we should have started Kevin Seraphin -- a guy who is minute for minute one of the worst players in the NBA???
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:55 pm
by Nivek
Thibodeau's probably worth an extra win or two over the course of a season. He's not worth 8-10. Coaches can make a difference, but not that big a difference.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:55 pm
by payitforward
dckingsfan wrote:nate33 wrote:50-52.
I think we have more talent that the Bulls, and the Bulls are about to win 49.
Beginning of the season
FC comparison - I have a huge edge going to Chicago
Noah, Mohammed > Gortat, Seraphin or Vesely
Boozer, Gibson > Nene, Booker
Later in the season it is closer - but not close
Noah, Mohammed > Gortat, Gooden
Boozer, Gibson > Booker, Harrington
SF
Ariza, Webster > Dunleavy, Snell
SG
Butler > Beal
PG
Wall, Maynor > Hinrich, Augustin
So, I would argue that the talent is much closer than you think and Thibs depends on having a defensive stopper in the FC. And I would argue that the best player by far this season is Noah out of both teams.
What is this abstraction "talent"? That we have more of than Chicago? There is no such abstract entity. There's only what players do on the floor, nothing else. Otherwise -- no reason to play the games!
Coaches make a marginal difference over time -- of course. But, it's a small one. Keep in mind that the data shows that players' numbers stay the same as they move from one coach or team to another coach or team. A few coaches do seem to get a little bit more out of guys than others, Phil Jackson being the classic example. But these differences are small.
Put simply -- it's a lot more important to have Shaquille O'Neal than it is to have Phil Jackson! Teams with better players win more games, because the players make a huge difference, the coach only a small one.
In other words, blame the guy who assembles the players, not the guy who coaches what he's given.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:58 pm
by dlts20
I was screaming to hire Tibbs even before we officially did hire him. I knew he would be a great coach.
With that being said, I wouldnt want him now. I wanted him then because we EJ and we had a lights out offensive system. We needed more D. Now its the other way around. Witt isnt a bad defensive coach. I would love to keep him to run the D but we need someone who can build around Wall. Fit the system around Wall and make us a much better Offense who doesnt depend on long 2's. I truly want Wall and us to play wide open like the Suns or OKC. Thats why Im hoping that the Thunder bomb because I could see them releasing Brooks and we should pick him up afte
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:03 pm
by dckingsfan
payitforward wrote:dckingsfan wrote:nate33 wrote:50-52.
I think we have more talent that the Bulls, and the Bulls are about to win 49.
Beginning of the season
FC comparison - I have a huge edge going to Chicago
Noah, Mohammed > Gortat, Seraphin or Vesely
Boozer, Gibson > Nene, Booker
Later in the season it is closer - but not close
Noah, Mohammed > Gortat, Gooden
Boozer, Gibson > Booker, Harrington
SF
Ariza, Webster > Dunleavy, Snell
SG
Butler > Beal
PG
Wall, Maynor > Hinrich, Augustin
So, I would argue that the talent is much closer than you think and Thibs depends on having a defensive stopper in the FC. And I would argue that the best player by far this season is Noah out of both teams.
What is this abstraction "talent"? That we have more of than Chicago? There is no such abstract entity. There's only what players do on the floor, nothing else. Otherwise -- no reason to play the games!
Coaches make a marginal difference over time -- of course. But, it's a small one. Keep in mind that the data shows that players' numbers stay the same as they move from one coach or team to another coach or team. A few coaches do seem to get a little bit more out of guys than others, Phil Jackson being the classic example. But these differences are small.
Put simply -- it's a lot more important to have Shaquille O'Neal than it is to have Phil Jackson! Teams with better players win more games, because the players make a huge difference, the coach only a small one.
In other words, blame the guy who assembles the players, not the guy who coaches what he's given.
PIF - violent agreement - A GM is worth far more than a coach.
I still think Thibs would make slight difference. And of course he wouldn't therefore be coaching Chicago might move us from the 6th seed to the 5th in the east.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:07 pm
by Rafael122
Maybe max 50 wins, hell the Wizards could have probably won 50 games this year if they didn't have a sub .500 record against losing teams. My only fear with Thibs is he seems to run his players to the ground.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:08 pm
by Illmatic21
dlts20 wrote:I was screaming to hire Tibbs even before we officially did hire him. I knew he would be a great coach.
With that being said, I wouldnt want him now. I wanted him then because we EJ and we had a lights out offensive system. We needed more D. Now its the other way around. Witt isnt a bad defensive coach. I would love to keep him to run the D but we need someone who can build around Wall. Fit the system around Wall and make us a much better Offense who doesnt depend on long 2's. I truly want Wall and us to play wide open like the Suns or OKC. Thats why Im hoping that the Thunder bomb because I could see them releasing Brooks and we should pick him up afte
No, God no. Brooks is mediocre as they come. After 4-5 years that Thunder offense is still all iso's.. and we don't have Kevin Durant on this team (yet)
If OKC bombs and they release Brooks, that should tell you something about Brooks. Maybe he would join Vinny Del Negro on NBATV..
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:43 pm
by payitforward
Rafael122 wrote:Maybe max 50 wins, hell the Wizards could have probably won 50 games this year if they didn't have a sub .500 record against losing teams. My only fear with Thibs is he seems to run his players to the ground.
This "50 win team" thing is starting to feel like torture. The Wizards are *not* a good team. They are a mediocre team at best. Our record is right in the middle of the 30 NBA teams. And against a weak Eastern conference, we've gone 31-19 -- but we went 11-19 vs. the West!
What do you think our record this year would look like if we'd been in the West? Adjusting the numbers above, we'd be 37-43 right now.
Put another way, we've won .62 of our games vs. the East and .36 of our games vs. the West. I.e. on average .49 -- we are the definition of a mediocre team.
Enough already with the "50-win" fantasies.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:12 pm
by Nivek
Glenn Consor was running this "the Wizards should be a 50-win team" junk during the broadcast the other night. His reasoning was that the Wizards have blown some games they could/should have won. But, the reasoning has to run both ways. That is, the Wizards also won close games they could/should have lost. And so, teams are what they've done, not what they might have done if they'd played better.
As I've said a number of times, Wittman wouldn't have been my choice as coach. He wouldn't be my choice moving forward. But he's not The Problem -- not to the tune of a 7-10 win difference. To improve, the Wizards need the players they bring back to get better, or they need to replace guys with better players. Ideally, they'll do both.
Getting a new and better coach will help a little too. But this isn't a 50-win roster.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:12 pm
by dckingsfan
payitforward wrote:Rafael122 wrote:Maybe max 50 wins, hell the Wizards could have probably won 50 games this year if they didn't have a sub .500 record against losing teams. My only fear with Thibs is he seems to run his players to the ground.
This "50 win team" thing is starting to feel like torture. The Wizards are *not* a good team. They are a mediocre team at best. Our record is right in the middle of the 30 NBA teams. And against a weak Eastern conference, we've gone 31-19 -- but we went 11-19 vs. the West!
What do you think our record this year would look like if we'd been in the West? Adjusting the numbers above, we'd be 37-43 right now.
Put another way, we've won .62 of our games vs. the East and .36 of our games vs. the West. I.e. on average .49 -- we are the definition of a mediocre team.
Enough already with the "50-win" fantasies.
We have to have one fantasy thread
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:22 pm
by Dat2U
Nivek wrote:Thibodeau's probably worth an extra win or two over the course of a season. He's not worth 8-10. Coaches can make a difference, but not that big a difference.
On average, your right, coaches don't make much of a difference. In this case, I'd strongly disagree that the difference b/w Thibodeau & Wittman is only one extra win. I don't think it's humanly possible for me to disagree anymore than I do right now with that analysis.
I'd consider Witt in the lower echelon, towards the very bottom of his profession. I'd consider Thibodeau in the very upper ranks of his fellow coaches. There's a significant gap between the two. Where as Wittman may be inadequate enough cost his teams two or three wins over the year, I'm thinking Thibodeau is good for another 4-5 wins at least. So maybe not 10 games difference but I suspect it's much closer to 10 than to only 1.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:28 pm
by Rafael122
payitforward wrote:Rafael122 wrote:Maybe max 50 wins, hell the Wizards could have probably won 50 games this year if they didn't have a sub .500 record against losing teams. My only fear with Thibs is he seems to run his players to the ground.
This "50 win team" thing is starting to feel like torture. The Wizards are *not* a good team. They are a mediocre team at best. Our record is right in the middle of the 30 NBA teams. And against a weak Eastern conference, we've gone 31-19 -- but we went 11-19 vs. the West!
What do you think our record this year would look like if we'd been in the West? Adjusting the numbers above, we'd be 37-43 right now.
Put another way, we've won .62 of our games vs. the East and .36 of our games vs. the West. I.e. on average .49 -- we are the definition of a mediocre team.
Enough already with the "50-win" fantasies.
I never said this was a 50 win team, all I had suggested was had they beaten teams with sub 500 records, they would probably be closer to the 50 win mark. That's not proof of them being a 50 win team, rather those opponents were that bad.
Philadelphia - 2x
Cleveland - 2x
Milwaukee
Atlanta
Denver - 2x
Detroit
Boston
Sacramento
11 games! Even if they finished the season w/43 wins, and they split those 11 games, that's still 47-48 wins. It's ridiculous that they couldn't do better, even in a weak East. 48 wins probably would have gotten them a 3rd seed, and home court in the first round.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:50 pm
by FAH1223
The 50 win BS that Consor and others are saying reminds me of the 2007 mantra which was:
"OMFG! We were the #1 seed in the East with everyone healthy!!!"
And then that stupid mentality haunted the Wizards until the underwhelming start to 2009-10 season and gungate ended that love affair with that core once and for all.
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:51 pm
by dlts20
Illmatic21 wrote:dlts20 wrote:I was screaming to hire Tibbs even before we officially did hire him. I knew he would be a great coach.
With that being said, I wouldnt want him now. I wanted him then because we EJ and we had a lights out offensive system. We needed more D. Now its the other way around. Witt isnt a bad defensive coach. I would love to keep him to run the D but we need someone who can build around Wall. Fit the system around Wall and make us a much better Offense who doesnt depend on long 2's. I truly want Wall and us to play wide open like the Suns or OKC. Thats why Im hoping that the Thunder bomb because I could see them releasing Brooks and we should pick him up afte
No, God no. Brooks is mediocre as they come. After 4-5 years that Thunder offense is still all iso's.. and we don't have Kevin Durant on this team (yet)
If OKC bombs and they release Brooks, that should tell you something about Brooks. Maybe he would join Vinny Del Negro on NBATV..
well my main thing is this. I want a coach who wants to run a fast paced offense and the main thing I want more then anything is someone who runs picks & screens for Wall to beat his man and get to the rim. Thats the main thing we need to do. We dont do that. Our picks are set for Wall to pass 1st or shoot a pull up J. I want one like EJ's where it was all about giving the PG the advanatage. Wall could dominate with that because he can get to the rim much easier then he does now but he's also more pass 1st then any other elite PG playing in those systems. I wouldnt even mind SVG if he used Wall the same way he did Wade in the p&r
Re: How many games would we win if Tom Thibodeau was our coa
Posted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 2:58 pm
by truwizfan4evr
70