A conversation about the Wizards (Grantland article)

[Dat2U]

Folks, this is a must read. Andrew Sharp basically goes in and is painfully honest in his assessment. Nate33 will love this read. Mods, feel free to merge into something else but this article truly gets to the heart of what I feel about this year and the whole playoffs or bust mantra.

Whenever this franchise stops celebrating average teams, it might actually have a chance to win games that mean something.

- Andrew Sharp

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/a-con ... e-wizards/

[mohammed10]

Great post, Dat!

My favorite quote:

The Wizards are a playoff team like Macklemore is a rapper. Technically true, but anyone that takes them seriously is automatically suspect.

EPIC...

[FAH1223]

I’m not sure the Wizards are any less delusional than they were then. This year looks like progress, but the Wizards went 24-25 with Wall healthy last year. This year, they started 25-28, and barely got above .500 playing the worst Eastern Conference we’ve seen in years. What’s different? Nobody has gotten better. If anything, Beal’s gotten worse as the year’s gone on, and Wall has become more inconsistent than ever over the past six weeks.

And this is why I’m worried. Leonsis started the year with a playoff mandate for the coaches and players and management, and they made it, but nothing actually changed. For this team to improve, the young stars need a real coach who will make them better — please stop taking those midrange jumpers — and a GM who will surround them with real talent as opposed to just panicking to fill holes every year. It’s why I’ve been quietly rooting against them for weeks, and it’s why I’m rooting against them in the first round. The Wizards getting blown off the court might be the only thing that convinces the Wiz leadership they need to make a change.

And this

OK, sure, Randy Wittman is not great.

Let the record state: Even the believer thinks this.

But that’s not a reason to root against this team.

Yes it is. The Wizards have just enough good young players to attract another superstar. If they play this right and hire a real coach this summer, go out and win 50 games next year, and free up cap space, then suddenly they become one of the best young teams in basketball and a pretty attractive free-agent destination for the best players in the league. There’s a chance for this team to get really, really good.

Not just a team that’s not bad, but an actual good team that will get people excited.

The Wizards aren’t getting Kevin Durant or Kevin Love.
But they might.

But they won’t.

They definitely won’t if they bring back Wittman and Grunfeld and overpay Gortat and Trevor Ariza this summer! And the Wizards have been making choices like that for my entire life.

This isn’t that complicated. This week the Blogfather Dan Steinberg asked why Washington D.C. isn’t excited about the team this year. You know the biggest reason? Because they’re not that fun to watch. I can’t blame all my apathetic friends in D.C. for skipping the chance to see Wall go 8-of-22 while the offense breaks down in the fourth quarter and the Wizards lose 90 percent of their close games.

[keynote]

Get out of my brain, Andrew. That ain't natural.

[tontoz]

The Wizards aren’t getting Kevin Durant or Kevin Love.

But they might.

But they won’t.

They definitely won’t if they bring back Wittman and Grunfeld and overpay Gortat and Trevor Ariza this summer! And the Wizards have been making choices like that for my entire life.

new coach and a new GM would be a good idea going forward. Will the ownership realize this at the end of the year? Maybe, maybe not. Probably not. This is what makes them the Wizards.

Fine. OK. You make some good points. I’m in. As long as someone at the Wizards realizes how crazy it is to spend huge money on good young players and then pair them with mediocre coaching and aging, overpaid teammates for the first seven years of their career.

[verbal8]

Yes the Wizards are 5th seed in the East, but only the 14th best team in the league. You can't get any more average than that.

[nate33]

Believe it or not, I don't moonlight as a Grantland writer under the name Andrew Sharp.

[nuposse04]

Millile or w/e is his name is would have an aneurysm after reading this loololololol. He's spot on tho, well done andrew. :I

I want us to beat the Bulls no doubt, but if the changes that need to get made, get made if we get crushed by them happen, then this could potentially be win-win.

[ptptpt]

That article is like this board vs milellie.

[Illmatic21]

I'm not gonna root against the team. I might have said that during the season, but when the actual games start I know I'm gonna sit down in front of my TV and root for our guys to do well.

If Leonsis can't realize that major changes need to be made, regardless of what happens in this series, then we were screwed from the moment he bought the team. Nothing we can do about that now.

Vinny Del Negro won 50+ games and was still released by the Clippers. Lionel Hollins went to the WCF and the Grizzlies still fired him. So wanting EG/Wittman gone doesn't mean you have to root for us to lose to the Bulls.

[doclinkin]

yep yep yep

[verbal8]

I'm not gonna root against the team. I might have said that during the season, but when the actual games start I know I'm gonna sit down in front of my TV and root for our guys to do well.

If Leonsis can't realize that major changes need to be made, regardless of what happens in this series, then we were screwed from the moment he bought the team. Nothing we can do about that now.

Vinny Del Negro won 50+ games and was still released by the Clippers. Lionel Hollins went to the WCF and the Grizzlies still fired him. So wanting EG/Wittman gone doesn't mean you have to root for us to lose to the Bulls.

I could see a good play-off showing actually making Wittman's position more precarious. If they advance and make a good showing in the 2nd round, they might appear to be a great coach away from being a contender.

I guess the optimistic view for the GM position is it could make EG desirable to other franchises and someone may try to hire him away.

[Illmatic21]

I'm not gonna root against the team. I might have said that during the season, but when the actual games start I know I'm gonna sit down in front of my TV and root for our guys to do well.

If Leonsis can't realize that major changes need to be made, regardless of what happens in this series, then we were screwed from the moment he bought the team. Nothing we can do about that now.

Vinny Del Negro won 50+ games and was still released by the Clippers. Lionel Hollins went to the WCF and the Grizzlies still fired him. So wanting EG/Wittman gone doesn't mean you have to root for us to lose to the Bulls.

I could see a good play-off showing actually making Wittman's position more precarious. If they advance and make a good showing in the 2nd round, they might appear to be a great coach away from being a contender.

I guess the optimistic view for the GM position is it could make EG desirable to other franchises and someone may try to hire him away.

That's how I've been looking at it. It's why Del Negro was let go. After years of being a laughingstock, Clippers management realized that they finally had something good on their hands, and it was time to upgrade to a winning coach and capitalize on the potential.

If the team does well, people will be in Leonsis' ear saying "Look, you have a lot of potential with this core. Invest in a proper coach and it will yield even greater returns"

Unfortunately in that scenario I can't think of any convincing argument why Leonsis wouldn't want to keep EG, unless they somehow have a personal falling out. But I'll be slightly less mad about Ted re-signing EG if he doesn't drop the ball on the coaching search.

[JWizmentality]

I would drink that man's bath water. He has articulated everything in my heart.

[AFM]

Probably the most poorly written article I've ever read from Sharp. Maybe he could have mentioned how many games this team has lost at the last second / OT, meaning with proper coaching we are probably a 50+ win team.
Bunch of negative nancies on this board. I would grab a beer with exactly none of you.

[stevemcqueen1]

This is a fun article.

Naturally, I disagree with several points in the hater part of his article. And I think it skews the thing negative.

- I disagree Beal has gotten worse as the year's gone on. He's grown steadily IMO and is playing at a very high level right now. He's a 20 year old budding star and plays like it, good and bad. Lately though, he's been dialed in. Really really good. And Beal has the aura of a mature player who gets it and who will continue getting better for a while.

- Calling this season mediocre ignores the all important context of where the team was just last season. We're not rooting for a legit contender. We all know that. We measure success by meaningful, incremental progress. The team made a MASSIVE improvement this year. Double digit improvement in wins is real success. Of course our players are getting better and our team is getting better. Saying none of our players have gotten better doesn't make sense.

- I disagree that Wall has been more inconsistent than ever recently. I think he's actually been playing well on the whole since the break, and as a whole, Wall has been terrific this season. He's progressing like we need and want him to. I can't complain about him. Literally every little thing that needs improvement with him is the kind of thing that comes in time. He's rock solid and already probably the best all around guard of his generation. When his time comes, he's going to be one of the few true difference maker franchise players in the game. And he's totally invested here. And we're finally stable.

I think the profundity of this is almost totally lost on the fan base. How many franchises are in this spot? What does Minnesota's or Cleveland's or New York's future look like? Brooklyn?

It's not just about dysfunctional franchises either.

Is OKC's future secure with Durant? What's Miami's future look like for the next five years? Indy's? Chicago's? Do we really believe in Houston's or Golden State's or Portland's potential to legitimately contend with the players they've got? Of them, Houston is the only one with the roster flexibility to make a major change for the better.

Fast forward three years or so and, realistically, we'll have the best PG and SG in the game in their primes. Maybe we've got something with Porter. And who knows what else we'll have with the Nene money? Whose future looks like that? New Orleans maybe. Houston maybe. LAC's maybe. What if Durant or Westbrook leave OKC?

Real talk, I think there is a Grunfeld hater in the heart of almost every Wizards fans that is defensively pessimistic and gives disproportional weight to the negative. We've been really slow to embrace Wall, slow to embrace this team. Go back and look at reactions to the Gortat trade. I got flak for saying recognizing this was a playoff team after that deal. People were defensively pessimistic after that deal. Seriously, it was obvious to anyone but a Wizards fan this team was a playoff team and a competitor for a decent seed after that move.

The amount of nostalgia and love there still is for those legitimately flawed Arenas teams really drove home how reluctant the fan base was to embrace this team for me. I never believed in those Arenas teams anywhere near like I do in this Wall team. This team is not like them. And that's a good thing.

As a fan base, we're utterly invested in being anti-Grunfeld now. When the author admits to rooting against the team, he demonstrates his investment. We don't really accept that the team actually has something here. That they're going through organic stages of growth. It's because accepting those things means admitting we've been at least somewhat wrong about Grunfeld's performance. I don't think that's something the fan base is at all ready to admit. Not off of just this season.

But if they actually beat the Bulls?

If, heaven forbid, they then beat the Pacers?

[montestewart]

I would drink that man's bath water.

I would grab a beer with exactly none of you.

I'm seeing a beverage theme.

[nate33]

Real talk, I think there is a Grunfeld hater in the heart of almost every Wizards fans that is defensively pessimistic and gives disproportional weight to the negative. We've been really slow to embrace Wall, slow to embrace this team. Go back and look at reactions to the Gortat trade. I got flak for saying recognizing this was a playoff team after that deal. People were defensively pessimistic after that deal. Seriously, it was obvious to anyone but a Wizards fan this team was a playoff team and a competitor for a decent seed after that move.

Nonsense. Nobody gave you flak for saying this was a playoff team after the Gortat trade because it was fairly obvious that the team had enough talent to make the playoffs in a weak East. That's why the majority of the board predicted 42-46 wins.

The problem with the Gortat trade wasn't a matter of talent. It was that we gave up a future first for a one-year rental.

[doclinkin]

Regardless, if you want to get righteous and stoke your fandom for at least a series, stop on by any Chicago forum and see exactly how misguided and under-informed fans are about this squad. Yeah okay our coach is mediocre and we may have no future, but the talent level is in our favor even if all the other intangibles are on their side. I suspect a motivated Nene could neutralize Noah's effect, and then what? They're another squad that is deep in pretty good players, but have no great single talent who can carry them other than JoNo. They can't score, at all, ever. At least we can run some and occasionally get hot from outside. You have to love their defense, but every now and again someone's got to put the fried chicken into the bucket. Love how we have NO chance in this series. Right...

[montestewart]

Real talk, I think there is a Grunfeld hater in the heart of almost every Wizards fans that is defensively pessimistic and gives disproportional weight to the negative. We've been really slow to embrace Wall, slow to embrace this team. Go back and look at reactions to the Gortat trade. I got flak for saying recognizing this was a playoff team after that deal. People were defensively pessimistic after that deal. Seriously, it was obvious to anyone but a Wizards fan this team was a playoff team and a competitor for a decent seed after that move.

Nonsense. Nobody gave you flak for saying this was a playoff team after the Gortat trade because it was fairly obvious that the team had enough talent to make the playoffs in a weak East. That's why the majority of the board predicted 42-46 wins.

The problem with the Gortat trade wasn't a matter of talent. It was that we gave up a future first for a one-year rental.

Really stevemcqueen1, how can you even write that in that face of overwhelming contrary evidence. I think I recall you had the same problem at the time, no matter how many times it was explained, and you are still mischaracterizing the source of that pessimism.

The average prediction for the Wizards among posters here was a little higher than the averages I saw elsewhere, and proved to me more accurate, and not all that many thought the Wizards were not a likely playoff team. The evidence is in the prediction thread and in the Gortat thread, where numerous people complimented him as a player and thought there was a good chance for him to bounce back from last season, even as they decried the manner of acquisition.

PS: By my count, 45 people predicted a higher win total than you did (many of them most assuredly critics of the trade), only 42 a lower win total, and since you underestimated by a couple of wins, I'd say you were overly negative in your prognosis. Somehow, I am both more pessimistic and more positive.