RealGM

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We are in uncharted territory insofar as recent history is concerned. We are not living and dying and scheming about ping pong balls. It's kind of refreshing.

But the lottery is tonight (May 20) and I thought we'd have ourselves a few guesses as to who will "win" the lottery. There are many ways to consider your guess.

1) Law of numbers. Milwaukee has the best odds of getting the first pick with 25 percent of the ping pong balls. But that also means that 75 percent of the ping pong balls are not the Bucks'....so they have a 3/4 chance of moving down in the lottery. Second and third number of ping pong balls belong to Philly (19.9) and Orlando (15.6 percent chance of winning).

2) The Adam Silver Conspiracy Theory. Welcome to the number 1 pick, Los Angeles Lakers. Detroit or Boston moving up would also have Sliver's fingerprints all over the process. Only the New York Knicks bad front office prevents Sliver from bestowing the first pick on the Big Apple.

3) The little kid theory. If the Cavaliers have that little kid representing them again, sitting on the stage in his little J.C. Penny's suit....well, you know that the Cavs are gonna move up.

4) The residue good juju of the Polish Machine. Phoenix has just about zero chance to move up. But if you are a true believer of the Polish Machine, you'll find Phoenix executives benefiting from all of the leftover juju from its departed warrior.

Post your thoughts about who'll win and why. If you have another theory besides boring old math, post our theory here.

Go Wizards!



P.S. For grins and giggles, here is a link to the RealGM lottery simulator: http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/ ... _simulator

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Nate or Miller, I'm pretty sure we don't have a 2014 lottery thread up. But this thread should have a short shelf life, so if you can and have the inclination, feel free to fold this into the 2013 thread if you can find it and edit the title to reflect 2014 too. I just wanted to try and have public guesses as to which team "wins" the lottery.

I ran the RealGM simulator one time and this is what I got:

1. Philly
2. Lakers
3. Cavs

An Adam Silver trifecta.

I hope Phoenix moves up somehow. They deserve a higher pick for their outstanding season!

I think the Bucks will win it though and the Lakers creep into the top 3.

I just ran it once and I got

1. LAL
2. PHI
3. UTA

Minnesota
lakers
bucks
philly
kings

Ran the simulator:
Bucks
Jazz
Lakers


Hmm Lakers have moved up in 3 of 3 simulator predictions. Minnesota with the 1st pick would be very interesting(but very low chance).

As Wizards fans, we are rooting for -- not necessarily in this order

(1) terrible teams
(2) Western teams
(3) teams that are not potential Kevin Love destinations

Rooting for Milwaukee, Utah, Sacto, New Orleans, Denver

Rooting strongly against Boston, Phoenix, LA

Rooting against: Philly, Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando

I also think we are rooting FOR Minnesota. I top 3 pick does one of two things: it buys them another year with Love, increasing the chance he hits free agency next summer; it also allows them to turn the page from Love more easily and go full-rebuild

fishercob wrote:As Wizards fans, we are rooting for -- not necessarily in this order

(1) terrible teams
(2) Western teams
(3) teams that are not potential Kevin Love destinations

Rooting for Milwaukee, Utah, Sacto, New Orleans, Denver

Rooting strongly against Boston, Phoenix, LA

Rooting against: Philly, Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando

I also think we are rooting FOR Minnesota. I top 3 pick does one of two things: it buys them another year with Love, increasing the chance he hits free agency next summer; it also allows them to turn the page from Love more easily and go full-rebuild

Thanks Fisher. Also if someone jumps from below Detroit, Bobcats get their pick. And there are lots of other weird scenarios that could play out.

What if Minnesota wins the lottery? Do you then trade Love and try and get the Lakers or Celtics lottery pick and try and do a Wiggins-Parker combo on the same team? That would be interesting.

Rafael122 wrote:What if Minnesota wins the lottery? Do you then trade Love and try and get the Lakers or Celtics lottery pick and try and do a Wiggins-Parker combo on the same team? That would be interesting.

If they move into the top 3, all sorts of weird things start happening. You would probably see both Love and Pek moved. They probably take Joel Embiid and trade with the Cs to get another pick and Sullinger or Olynyk for Love.

Bobcats get another pick as well... it would toss things up in the air.

Rafael122 wrote:What if Minnesota wins the lottery? Do you then trade Love and try and get the Lakers or Celtics lottery pick and try and do a Wiggins-Parker combo on the same team? That would be interesting.

I think the combo would probably be Wiggins-Randle unless the Celtics hit the top 3. Still an interesting idea.

This guy uses the Hands method of predicting on the Draft lotto:

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... er=ya5nbcs

verbal8 wrote:This guy uses the Hands method of predicting on the Draft lotto:

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... er=ya5nbcs

Verbal, that guy was funny AND sarcastic

If the Lakers (6) or Celtics (5) get the first pick, the conspiracy theorists will make their voices hear. If the Lakers and Celtics get the first 2 picks, the national media will agree with the conspiracy theorists. So, as the French would say, Geaux Bux!

verbal8 wrote:This guy uses the Hands method of predicting on the Draft lotto:

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/ ... er=ya5nbcs

Outstanding article.

Ha! You guys beat me to it. Totally classic article.

About a decade late, but we're always glad to have fellow passengers on this bus!

Ima vomit if Phoenix gets a top 8 pick. I see at least 8 guys in this draft that *could* be future "franchise" guys (Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Randle, Vonleh, Smart, Gordon). All but Smart would fill a long-term need for this team. (Hell - Saric, McDermott and Young look pretty promising, too).

But any two of Boston, LA, or Cleveland in the Top 3 would mean the fix is in for sure.

daSwami wrote:Ima vomit if Phoenix gets a top 8 pick. I see at least 8 guys in this draft that *could* be future "franchise" guys (Embiid, Parker, Wiggins, Exum, Randle, Vonleh, Smart, Gordon). All but Smart would fill a long-term need for this team. (Hell - Saric, McDermott and Young look pretty promising, too).

But any two of Boston, LA, or Cleveland in the Top 3 would mean the fix is in for sure.

A little non-wizards luck and one of those names maybe falls to their 2nd pick.

My prediction: Either Orlando, Phoenix or Philadelphia wins the draft lottery.

Phoenix - Minnesota's pick actually goes to Phoenix if it's falls out of the top 13. DOUBT this happens, but Minnesota could pick 14th, and that vaults Phoenix into having two chances to get the lottery pick.

Orlando - I'm not sure how this works, they either get the Denver or Knicks pick, whichever is less favorable, so I don't know if this increases their lottery odds or it stays the same.

Philadelphia - gets the Pelicans pick if it falls out of the top 5.

Basically I picked 3 teams that have other lottery picks tied through other teams.

I hope Cleveland falls out of the top 10...I hate the Cleveland org. minus Deng.