Roster & Rotation Evaluation

[Ruzious]

Well to be fair admiral or Robinson could be included as cap filler in a deal. And I think ish could be traded into cap space for a team looking for a vet back up on a one year deal, which to be fair we would probably resign shabazz at that point or sign grant. Also we are in a good cap situation if we don't see admiral or Robinson on he team I can absolutely see waiving them or moving them to a team who wants them for nothing. Same with AP I just see value in a serviceable young back up center when out other centers have had injury issues.

You are just wrong. Wishing for it to be so will not make it so. We are not trading Ish into cap room. First of all, the teams with cap room don't want a 32-year-old backup PG. And secondly, Ish is far more important than Pasecniks. We're NOT trading him so that we can retain a 25-year-old project center.

And we're not waiving Admiral to keep Pasecniks either.

Just stop. You are wrong. It's possible that some trade comes to pass where we somehow generate some roster room. But it's not going to be for the purpose of retaining Pasecniks. He is a total afterthought.

Holding on to AP as a 4th center wouldn’t be a terrible idea, considering if we draft a center and don’t resign Mahinmi, our top 3 would include one rookie, and 2 other guys who have both missed a significant number of games with injury. Especially given the nature of the position in terms of physicality and high foul rate. Its nice to have good depth there. I mean you can almost count on at least 1 out of the 4 having some kind of injury at any given time.

AP's like a 16th man on a 15 man roster. Chances are, the team would be better off using a PF at center if they need a 4th center.

[payitforward]

PIF, what do you think about Bonga? Would you try and resign him to a long term deal now? For how much?

Absolutely! Basically, I'd sign him for as long as I possibly could (with a team option in there somewhere...). He gives every indication of having a really bright future & high ceiling.

He's kind of a bizarre case to consider -- above all, maybe, because who knows what position he plays long-term. Didn't we read that he's grown an inch since the season began? Or since the Summer? Something.... Good heavens, what if he grows two more inches!!?? He'll be a dead ringer for Clint Capela! On top of which he has some significant pg skills!

In short, I'd do whatever it takes at this point: How much $$ is that? I have no idea, but... how much could it take to lock him up for the next 4 years? Put a big raise somewhere out there, but make that the season with a team option...?

Do you agree?

Yes. The only question is price. Let's say we're talking about a 4-year deal. What price is so high that you would rather just let him ride out the last year of his contract at $1.66M.

I'd pay him up to 4 years $20M.

That sounds reasonable. Of course not $5m/year for 4 years, but some kind of climbing rate -- & with a team option somewhere.

Keep in mind that he almost has to take a new deal if, say, it gives him at least $3m next year. After all, if he turns it down, we pick up his option, & he's lost @$1.5m in guaranteed money... now. A dollar now is worth more than a dollar a year from now.

So, if it were $3m > $4m > $5.5m > (team option) $7.5m, I think that would be a very hard deal for his agent to advise him to turn down -- he'd have to be pretty sure he could get him $5.5m somewhere for '21-22. Factor in risk of injury, etc. & he'd virtually 100% certain to take the 4-year deal.

Make sense?

[gambitx777]

He's a good young prospect but it's not a Brandon ingrim situation yet. His agent should be fired if he turns down a 3-5 mill a year 3-4 year deal with a team option on a it

Absolutely! Basically, I'd sign him for as long as I possibly could (with a team option in there somewhere...). He gives every indication of having a really bright future & high ceiling.

He's kind of a bizarre case to consider -- above all, maybe, because who knows what position he plays long-term. Didn't we read that he's grown an inch since the season began? Or since the Summer? Something.... Good heavens, what if he grows two more inches!!?? He'll be a dead ringer for Clint Capela! On top of which he has some significant pg skills!

In short, I'd do whatever it takes at this point: How much $$ is that? I have no idea, but... how much could it take to lock him up for the next 4 years? Put a big raise somewhere out there, but make that the season with a team option...?

Do you agree?

Yes. The only question is price. Let's say we're talking about a 4-year deal. What price is so high that you would rather just let him ride out the last year of his contract at $1.66M.

I'd pay him up to 4 years $20M.

That sounds reasonable. Of course not $5m/year for 4 years, but some kind of climbing rate -- & with a team option somewhere.

Keep in mind that he almost has to take a new deal if, say, it gives him at least $3m next year. After all, if he turns it down, we pick up his option, & he's lost @$1.5m in guaranteed money... now. A dollar now is worth more than a dollar a year from now.

So, if it were $3m > $4m > $5.5m > (team option) $7.5m, I think that would be a very hard deal for his agent to advise him to turn down -- he'd have to be pretty sure he could get him $5.5m somewhere for '21-22. Factor in risk of injury, etc. & he'd virtually 100% certain to take the 4-year deal.

Make sense?

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[SUPERBALLMAN]

He's a good young prospect but it's not a Brandon ingrim situation yet. His agent should be fired if he turns down a 3-5 mill a year 3-4 year deal with a team option on a it

Yes. The only question is price. Let's say we're talking about a 4-year deal. What price is so high that you would rather just let him ride out the last year of his contract at $1.66M.

I'd pay him up to 4 years $20M.

That sounds reasonable. Of course not $5m/year for 4 years, but some kind of climbing rate -- & with a team option somewhere.

Keep in mind that he almost has to take a new deal if, say, it gives him at least $3m next year. After all, if he turns it down, we pick up his option, & he's lost @$1.5m in guaranteed money... now. A dollar now is worth more than a dollar a year from now.

So, if it were $3m > $4m > $5.5m > (team option) $7.5m, I think that would be a very hard deal for his agent to advise him to turn down -- he'd have to be pretty sure he could get him $5.5m somewhere for '21-22. Factor in risk of injury, etc. & he'd virtually 100% certain to take the 4-year deal.

Make sense?

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Lock him up !!

4/20 sounds about right, good for the team, and I would think he'd take it.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Your 2020 Washington Wizards:

Wall Ish Payton
Beal Matthews
TBJ Bertans Robinson
Bonga Diakite Admiral
Okongwu Bryant Wagner

[nate33]

Your 2020 Washington Wizards:

Wall Ish Payton
Beal Matthews
TBJ Bertans Robinson
Bonga Diakite Admiral
Okongwu Bryant Wagner

Are they trading Hachimura?

Also, do you really think they'll keep Payton over Napier?

I'm bracing for them to stock up on veterans to the extent that they can. They're going to push hard for a playoff spot next year.

That means they'll keep Napier. And they'll probably sign an MLE vet (leaving Mathews on a two-way contract to save the roster spot).

[Shoe]

Your 2020 Washington Wizards:

Wall Ish Payton
Beal Matthews
TBJ Bertans Robinson
Bonga Diakite Admiral
Okongwu Bryant Wagner

Are they trading Hachimura?

Rui is starting guys. They aren't trading him and they aren't benching him. Wall Beal and Rui are locks for starting lineup.

[gambitx777]

Rui is playing great and he's huge in the Asian market. Stop trading what could be an all-star one day

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[nate33]

Your 2020 Washington Wizards:

Wall Ish Payton
Beal Matthews
TBJ Bertans Robinson
Bonga Diakite Admiral
Okongwu Bryant Wagner

Are they trading Hachimura?

Rui is starting guys. They aren't trading him and they aren't benching him. Wall Beal and Rui are locks for starting lineup.

FWIW, I don't think LSBF was implying they're going to trade Hachimura. I think it was just an oversight.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Are they trading Hachimura?

Rui is starting guys. They aren't trading him and they aren't benching him. Wall Beal and Rui are locks for starting lineup.

FWIW, I don't think LSBF was implying they're going to trade Hachimura. I think it was just an oversight.

That is correct. Just plain forgot about Hachi

[payitforward]

anyway you stopped at 14, so no issue....

[gambitx777]

I think the issue was people have been bringing up trading rui and our pick for a top 3 pick and none of us like it.

Rui is starting guys. They aren't trading him and they aren't benching him. Wall Beal and Rui are locks for starting lineup.

FWIW, I don't think LSBF was implying they're going to trade Hachimura. I think it was just an oversight.

That is correct. Just plain forgot about Hachi

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Hope people are watching Duke UVA. Great game featuring our future stretch 4/5.

[youngWizzy]

More from Tommy's AMA on reddit.

A fan asked: Many people think that the answer at center for the Wizards is not currently on the roster. How do you plan to find a center, hopefully one who is good defensively and rebounding? Is it through the draft, trades, or do you believe that one of our bigs on the roster can be the future center?

Tommy Replied: If you look at the way the game is played, it's harder and harder to have significant money tied in to one player at the center position. We found it as a necessity to do center-by-committee. We're pleased with the progress of Thomas Bryant, Moe Wagner, and Anzejs Pasecniks.

[payitforward]

Ooops... I just put that in Tommy's thread.

I love the way the fan say, "Many people think..." -- how does he know what many people think, I wonder?

[payitforward]

Since we're on the subject... after a slow start, Thomas Bryant's numbers have climbed closer & closer to the really stellar season he had last year.

It occurs to me that maybe it would be instructive to compare Bryant (a 5) & Bertans (a 4) this year -- as scorers & in other ways -- especially since everyone is so high on Davis, whereas many people here are far far more critical of Bryant.

Tell me, do you think Bertans has been a better scorer than Bryant? Well... what do I mean by that question?

A. For starters, does he score more points? You know what, he does -- per 40 minutes Bertans scores (brace yourself)

Spoiler:

1/3 of a point more than Bryant.

B. Bertans being such a great 3-point shooter (42.4% on 3's, so no question about that!), he must be more efficient than Bryant -- higher efg% & TS% -- right?

Spoiler:

Actually, Thomas Bryant is shooting 40.4% on 3-pointers himself this year. & because he also shoots 64.3% on 2- point shots (to Bertans 47.1%), Bryant's efg% is 63.7% to Bertans' 59.5%. That's a lot higher. Now, Bertans is a bit better than Bryant from the FT line, so his TS% comes a little closer -- only 3.5% lower than Thomas Bryant. Still a big difference.
Another way to put it, remember that extra 1/3 of a point Bertans delivers in 40 minutes? He has to use 1.1 more possessions than Thomas to get it.

C. Then there are a few other things as well:

Spoiler:

1.Davis gets only 2/3 as many defensive boards as Thomas.
2. Davis only gets 27.5% as many offensive boards as Bryant. That's a little unfair -- lets look at the composite of offensive boards & steals minus turnovers. It brings them closer: Bryant is plus 2.1 on that. Davis is plus .5 -- Bryant is still pretty much better on all the ball possession stuff.
2. Thomas Bryant gets almost 40% more assists than Davis Bertans.
3. Bryant does commit 5% more fouls than Bertans.

Is there a big difference between their defense?

Spoiler:

No, but it's fair to say that there's a little difference: Bertans has a -.44 DRPM this year, while Bryant is at -.69

So... I'm just curious. Why is everyone so high on Bertans? Why do we want to pay him $15m/year for a few years? When, on the other hand, barely a day passes without someone calling for us to trade Thomas Bryant, who is only 22 & (you don't want me to say this, do you?) a whole bunch better NBA player than Davis Bertans.

It's a funny world, isn't it?

[gambitx777]

Well I agree I hope we don't pay him 15 mill a year. And I've been the biggest trade Bryant guy not because he's bad or I don't like him but because he has the most value of any one we have not named Beal. I hope I'm wrong and I hope his D gets better and hit foot stays fine.

Since we're on the subject... after a slow start, Thomas Bryant's numbers have climbed closer & closer to the really stellar season he had last year.

It occurs to me that maybe it would be instructive to compare Bryant (a 5) & Bertans (a 4) this year -- as scorers & in other ways -- especially since everyone is so high on Davis, whereas many people here are far far more critical of Bryant.

Tell me, do you think Bertans has been a better scorer than Bryant? Well... what do I mean by that question?

A. For starters, does he score more points? You know what, he does -- per 40 minutes Bertans scores (brace yourself)

Spoiler:

1/3 of a point more than Bryant.

B. Bertans being such a great 3-point shooter (42.4% on 3's, so no question about that!), he must be more efficient than Bryant -- higher efg% & TS% -- right?

Spoiler:

Actually, Thomas Bryant is shooting 40.4% on 3-pointers himself this year. & because he also shoots 64.3% on 2- point shots (to Bertans 47.1%), Bryant's efg% is 63.7% to Bertans' 59.5%. That's a lot higher. Now, Bertans is a bit better than Bryant from the FT line, so his TS% comes a little closer -- only 3.5% lower than Thomas Bryant. Still a big difference.
Another way to put it, remember that extra 1/3 of a point Bertans delivers in 40 minutes? He has to use 1.1 more possessions than Thomas to get it.

C. Then there are a few other things as well:

Spoiler:

1.Davis gets only 2/3 as many defensive boards as Thomas.
2. Davis only gets 27.5% as many offensive boards as Bryant. That's a little unfair -- lets look at the composite of offensive boards & steals minus turnovers. It brings them closer: Bryant is plus 2.1 on that. Davis is plus .5 -- Bryant is still pretty much better on all the ball possession stuff.
2. Thomas Bryant gets almost 40% more assists than Davis Bertans.
3. Bryant does commit 5% more fouls than Bertans.

Is there a big difference between their defense?

Spoiler:

No, but it's fair to say that there's a little difference: Bertans has a -.44 DRPM this year, while Bryant is at -.69

So... I'm just curious. Why is everyone so high on Bertans? Why do we want to pay him $15m/year for a few years? When, on the other hand, barely a day passes without someone calling for us to trade Thomas Bryant, who is only 22 & (you don't want me to say this, do you?) a whole bunch better NBA player than Davis Bertans.

It's a funny world, isn't it?

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I don’t know if Bryant is hurt, but he seems to have regressed on defense.

As soon as he checked in last night, the Heat immediately went right at him.

I like the kid, but in today’s NBA, you need your center to do a few things:

Shoot from three- check
Defend the rim - negative
Rebound - ok ish

[nate33]

Since we're on the subject... after a slow start, Thomas Bryant's numbers have climbed closer & closer to the really stellar season he had last year.

It occurs to me that maybe it would be instructive to compare Bryant (a 5) & Bertans (a 4) this year -- as scorers & in other ways -- especially since everyone is so high on Davis, whereas many people here are far far more critical of Bryant.

Tell me, do you think Bertans has been a better scorer than Bryant? Well... what do I mean by that question?

A. For starters, does he score more points? You know what, he does -- per 40 minutes Bertans scores (brace yourself)

Spoiler:

1/3 of a point more than Bryant.

B. Bertans being such a great 3-point shooter (42.4% on 3's, so no question about that!), he must be more efficient than Bryant -- higher efg% & TS% -- right?

Spoiler:

Actually, Thomas Bryant is shooting 40.4% on 3-pointers himself this year. & because he also shoots 64.3% on 2- point shots (to Bertans 47.1%), Bryant's efg% is 63.7% to Bertans' 59.5%. That's a lot higher. Now, Bertans is a bit better than Bryant from the FT line, so his TS% comes a little closer -- only 3.5% lower than Thomas Bryant. Still a big difference.
Another way to put it, remember that extra 1/3 of a point Bertans delivers in 40 minutes? He has to use 1.1 more possessions than Thomas to get it.

C. Then there are a few other things as well:

Spoiler:

1.Davis gets only 2/3 as many defensive boards as Thomas.
2. Davis only gets 27.5% as many offensive boards as Bryant. That's a little unfair -- lets look at the composite of offensive boards & steals minus turnovers. It brings them closer: Bryant is plus 2.1 on that. Davis is plus .5 -- Bryant is still pretty much better on all the ball possession stuff.
2. Thomas Bryant gets almost 40% more assists than Davis Bertans.
3. Bryant does commit 5% more fouls than Bertans.

Is there a big difference between their defense?

Spoiler:

No, but it's fair to say that there's a little difference: Bertans has a -.44 DRPM this year, while Bryant is at -.69

So... I'm just curious. Why is everyone so high on Bertans? Why do we want to pay him $15m/year for a few years? When, on the other hand, barely a day passes without someone calling for us to trade Thomas Bryant, who is only 22 & (you don't want me to say this, do you?) a whole bunch better NBA player than Davis Bertans.

It's a funny world, isn't it?

You can repeat the same old analysis using individual box score data and it's going to fall on deaf ears because box score data doesn't capture everything, particularly things like spacing and shot deterrence.

Bryant has an on/off differential of -5.7 per 100 possessions. Bertans has an on/off differential of +8.1 per 100 possessions. Arguing that Bryant has been better than Bertans doesn't pass the smell test.

But the real issue is that, as a center, Bryant simply MUST be an exceptional rim protector or switchable defender or else the defense collapses. He isn't. The team has played its best basketball with Mahinmi at center, posting break-even on/off differentials against the opposition's starters.

[payitforward]

I don't dispute your valid points, nate -- not at all. But, they deserve comment. So...

...You can repeat the same old analysis using individual box score data and it's going to fall on deaf ears because box score data doesn't capture everything, particularly things like spacing and shot deterrence....

Absolutely correct. Neither box score data nor any other kind of data can "capture everything."

But, tell me, have you looked at Giannis's box score data? How about LeBron's box score data? How about, historically, Michael Jordan's box score data.

Should we also ignore their box score data, because "box score data doesn't capture everything..."? Does box score data capture nothing at all, or even just say nothing important, about those players?

To put it slightly differently, don't you think you might be downplaying box score data in the case of this comparison precisely because you have a settled opinion about the players in question? Just something to think about -- not to reject out of hand, nor to accept automatically either, but to think about.

...Bryant has an on/off differential of -5.7 per 100 possessions. Bertans has an on/off differential of +8.1 per 100 possessions. Arguing that Bryant has been better than Bertans doesn't pass the smell test...

I don't give "the smell test" a whole lot of credence. & I don't give individual on/off numbers much credence either. Wasn't it you who pointed out that... I don't remember who... came off the bench & played against bench players? Isn't that true of Bertans? Should we ignore the fact in this instance, while we accept its relevance in the other?

Or, instead, let me reproduce your statement with a slight difference of players: "Bradley Beal has an on/off differential of -4.9 per 100 possessions. Bertans has an on/off differential of +8.1 per 100 possessions. Arguing that Beal has been better than Bertans doesn't pass the smell test."

Any problem with that analysis? Admittedly, -4.9 is a little better than -5.8. Bertans is plus 13.8 vs. Bryant & only +12.9 vs Beal.

Of course, you wouldn't suggest that the comparison has any significance whatever when it's Bertans vs. Beal. If I used it as data to support the idea that Bertans is a better player than Beal, you would scoff at the idea. But... if the value of a comparison of data can't be judged until we know who is being compared... well, then, that data -- unlike box score data -- is altogether irrelevant.

...But the real issue is that, as a center, Bryant simply MUST be an exceptional rim protector or switchable defender or else the defense collapses. He isn't. The team has played its best basketball with Mahinmi at center, posting break-even on/off differentials against the opposition's starters.

I don't know about "exceptional," I agree 100% that his value would/will increase as he got/gets better at those skills -- & we don't know that he will get better, though we can hope he does.

At the same time, of course, every player has flaws. Bertans isn't a particularly good defender -- though a bit better than Bryant if you trust DRPM. & Bertans is a really bad rebounder. & that's a really big problem.

It ought to be easy to see that no matter how efficient a scorer you are, if your minutes mean that your team has fewer chances to score than otherwise they would, that differential impacts the meaning of your individual numbers. You have no trouble seeing the impact of one guy's play on the rest of the guys when it comes to spacing; surely this should be equally obvious. Actually, it's a lot more obvious, & its impact can be calculated with far greater precision.

I like Davis Bertans. I was aware of him before he ever played in the NBA. When San Antonio picked him at #42 in 2011, I was aware of their doing so & had the thought that once again SA had demonstrated their ability to get the value out of the draft.

IOW, I'm not a Bertans-hater. & I don't think you're a Bryant-hater either. My post was about what I said it was about -- the weird fact that "everybody" (i.e. most people) are ok w/ the idea of paying Bertans $15m a year, while at the same time suggesting Bryant in potential trade after trade. That makes no sense.