RealGM

Do we have a thread devoted to this subject? If so, mods please do the appropriate. If not, I think it needs its own discussion thread. I was stimulated to start it by a comment from the thread about our 1/11/15 loss to Atlanta:

dlts20 wrote:...Flip's system.... Its the dumbest offense in the league

Flip? I assume you are referring to Wittman's reliance on mid-range shots? If not, I'd be interested to hear what you do have in mind.

Statistical analysis shows that shooting 3's is more efficient than shooting mid-range 2's. But statistics have two important limitations as a basis for action: 1) they're backward-looking, and 2) they paint a static picture.

For a long time NBA coaches viewed 3-point attempts as *inherently* low % shots. Defenses concentrated elsewhere. That led to a lot of open 3s. Obviously guys hit any shot at a higher rate if it's open than if it's contested, so 3-pt shooting %s went up.

Will things always stay that way? I can't see it. Teams will defend the 3 harder, probably they're already doing that. If so, we should look for 3pt % overall to stabilize or even drop. And, because that will leave more mid-range attempts open, it would be no surprise to see %s on that kind of shot rise.

Ok, that's all speculative! But only in a sense -- I've seen it happen in a zillion other non-basketball contexts.

We are 25-12, the 9th best record in the league. That's *quite a bit* better than most people here thought we'd do this year. Is our success (the offensive side of it) powered by good mid-range shooting?

How well do we shoot the mid-range shot this year, I wonder? Compared to other teams I mean. I'd love to know, and I'm sure there's a way to find the relevant numbers -- but I don't know what it is. Someone either enlighten me or supply the numbers, please.

Maybe Randy is ahead of the curve rather than behind it!?!? Just a thought....

Witt is fine. The onus is on Ernie to get all-star caliber players here.

The game is always evolving.

The ATL design is complete. That is the full implementation of a strategy of all 3 ball shooting or you drive.

Thats what that team is. And if you look at their back ups to their back ups, they do the same.

On defense, everyone is scrappy and strong and they swarm.

They will get up 25-30 3s a game. They have one of if not the best 3 ball shooting SG in the game. Their centers can even shoot the 3. Even the back ups.

You simply can't keep up unless you have a team designed in a similar way.

Not sure I want to see a league of this style. Its kind of Euro. But also not sure you can beat a team designed like that as long as 3 is more then 2. Only team designed in a similar way can compete.

Until there is some change made with the 3 ball like putting a cap on how many count as 3 pts, this is the style teams will evolve toward if they want to compete.

For the Wizards, that means more Gooden, Webster, Rasual, Beal, Paul taking more 3s. It mean Wall and Otto taking more as well.

It also mean players like Blair are less useful.

Nene, Gortat, Seraphin, Blair, Hump, and Miller are to many roster spots dedicated to players that can't shot the 3

Of those, Hump has to extend his range to stay viable and they need to move another player.

We are 13th in offensive efficiency in spite of playing an easy schedule. If mediocrity is the goal then Witt is certainly the right man for the job.

That's a bit hyperbolic hands. Strongly coached teams with strong front court players will have decent success at making Atlanta pay for their lack of rim protectors. They are on a nice hot streak, but lets not act like their strategy is the end all method that will be adopted by the league for years to come.

tontoz wrote:We are 13th in offensive efficiency in spite of playing an easy schedule. If mediocrity is the goal then Witt is certainly the right man for the job.

You might be right. Then again, what if we had a few better offensive players: would we be higher in offensive efficiency?

I think that's a given. And as I mentioned, we have a better record so far than 90% of the fans here expected -- and fans are often optimistic!

I.e. what's the base line? My question is how to tease out the effect of Witt's offense.

payitforward wrote:

tontoz wrote:We are 13th in offensive efficiency in spite of playing an easy schedule. If mediocrity is the goal then Witt is certainly the right man for the job.

You might be right. Then again, what if we had a few better offensive players: would we be higher in offensive efficiency?

I think that's a given. And as I mentioned, we have a better record so far than 90% of the fans here expected -- and fans are often optimistic!

I.e. what's the base line? My question is how to tease out the effect of Witt's offense.

We've had the 2nd easiest schedule in the league so far.

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

We are 6-1 in games decided by 3 points or less, best in the NBA. That is not sustainable.

Our point differential is +2.0 in a weak conference. There is nothing to indicate that our winning percentage will be sustained.

We shoot long 2s poorly and shoot a lot of them, frequently early in the clock. It doesn't take much analysis to realize this is poor offensive strategy.

I'm not disagreeing w/ you about the team -- but I'm not sure you're right about your last sentence. Note, I'm not *disputing* it, I'm looking for an investigation of it!

*Team* offensive efficiency is the simple sum of *player* offensive efficiency (adjusted for minutes played obviously). Ditto for 2pt efficiency. Here's some relevant data:

Gortat is playing at a level consistent w/ his whole career -- offensive efficiency just about where it's been for years. # of 2point attempts too -- he averaged 13.1 per 40 minutes in his 3 years w/ the Suns and exactly the same with us.

Paul Pierce is playing offensively almost exactly as he did last season. Again the number of 2 pt. attempts/40 minutes consistent w/ recent years. His 2pt. FG% is *slightly* down from last year -- 50% vs. 50.7%

Humphries is taking 13.6 2 pt. attempts per 40 minutes vs. 13.3 with the Celtics last year. But his % is down from 50.3% last year to 46.2% this year -- maybe there's something relevant there? I.e. more inside work last year, more jumpers this year?

Beal is terrible on 2-pointers: shooting 40.2%, down from 42.5% previous years (not good either), and he shoots almost 11/40 minutes.

Wall's 2pt% is way up this year -- 49%. For a PG, that's very good.

Butler's 2pt attempts and % are about the same as in any year where he played significant minutes.

Nene's 2pt %s are down the last few years -- but you'd expect this; in his prime he operated mostly inside. These days when he tries that his turnovers go up.

Anything to learn from this?

The thing is Wittman is a serviceable coach. The guys respond to him and respect him. But he is just a step slow in the head in game. He won't necessarily loose you games but he won't win game for you like some coaches can. It's easy to say get a better guy, but at the same time, that's not so easy.

Nene took 1.7 shots per game from 10-22 feet in his last year in Denver. He is taking 4 per game now. He took almost 5 per game last season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=fg

Humphries is also at a career high in 2 pt jumper attempts, far higher than he ever did with the Nets. He is taking roughly 40% more long 2s here than he did with the Nets.

Wall and Beal, who haven't played anywhere else, are taking a combined 12 shots per game from that range in spite of the fact that they shoot them poorly.

No way these guys would be taking the same shots with the Hawks. Humphies would surely be taking 3s since he shoots long 2s over 40%.

I feel like we rely too much on jumpers and not necessarily open ones. We don't work easy shots enough. There are also way too many possessions where Wall just holds it till ~10 on the shot clock and then we have to rush.

Randy is fine. He's got the team playing great defense. Could we go small? Yea, and I think it would get us a few more wins over the season and maybe a playoff win, but the limitations we have right now are pretty much all roster based. Beal was supposed to take the next step and it hasn't happened.

I'd like to see us use our first to make something happen to improve us this year while leaving salary flexibility for the future.

I think it's clear the Wizards shot selection is less than optimal. Here's where they rank by shooting distance and percentage by distance:



So, the Wizards are 21st in at-rim attempts and 5th in at-rim FGA; they're 29th in 3pt attempts and 1st in 3pt%; and they're 3rd in 2pt attempts from 16 feet and beyond but only 18th in shooting percentage. This season, 39% of their FGA have been 2pt attempts from 10+ feet, but they're only about average from that distance.

If they emphasized getting to the rim and shooting 3s, they likely would not be quite as efficient on those shot attempts. But, those attempts are so much more efficient than the 2pt attempts from 3+ feet that they'd benefit. Here's points per field goal attempt by distance.



That doesn't include free throw attempts, which would provide even more fuel to "get more at-rim attempts" strategy. Research by Kirk Goldsberry showed that 57% of shooting fouls occur in that at-rim space.

The numbers suggest the Wizards could be significantly more efficient on offense with a system that would emphasize the fact that they're among the league's best in converting in the highest efficiency areas. That 3pt shooting SHOULD create space inside for more at-rim attempts. Encouraging players to shoot 2pt jumpers lets the defense off the hook. Sometimes they're necessary, of course, but not in the volume the Wizards are taking them.

The Wizards could do better on offense, certainly. But there's only so much you can do with just one bonafide offensive creator on the roster who is at least at an Aaron Brooks level- and that player obviously can't be on the floor the entire game.

In the postseason I'd assume Wall will play ~40+mpg, which will mitigate some of the issues we're seeing throughout this regular season with the dreadful, slow, stagnant bench. Beal will probably play 40+ mpg as well. Washington's starting 5 is one of the better lineups in the league in terms of net rating, and we'll be a much better team on the playoff stage when our top guys are on the floor as much as possible.

But no, we're not built to be an 'impressive' regular season team in terms of point differential, SRS, and all that jazz. That will have to come as a result of improvements to our overall depth next offseason: namely adding more capable combo guards/ballhandlers (hopefully this includes improvements from BB). We'll also have to replace the older guys like Miller, Gooden, Butler.

But Rome wasn't built in a day. From where we were last year to where we are now, I'm generally pleased with the team's progression. If the playoffs started tomorrow I'd feel pretty confident in the team's chances -- and I think fans of ATL, TOR, CHI, even CLE would be saying the same thing at this point

People are severely underestimating the Wizards roster itt. Wittman has done a decent job at getting an already athletic team to play defense, but he's been a pretty obvious negative on offense. I'm genuinely worried Wittman is going to ruin Beal.

Wizards lead the league in shots attempted neither from 3 nor at the rim. In other words, they lead the league in inefficient shot selection. Beal and Wall are both infatuated with coming off pnr only to take a long 2. This singularly comes down to coaching and the fact that Wittman wrongly believes that all "open" shots are equally efficient, and he has said as much during pressers on more than one occasion. A guy who is averaging 47% from 3 is only attempting four 3s a game. Think about that.

Smart teams are simply not doing what we are doing on offense. Morey has mandated that Houston only takes 3s and layups.If you want more evidence, look at the Spurs, look at Dallas. Smart teams do not play the way the Wizards play on offense. Period.

Illmatic12 wrote:The Wizards could do better on offense, certainly. But there's only so much you can do with just one bonafide offensive creator on the roster who is at least at an Aaron Brooks level- and that player obviously can't be on the floor the entire game.

Huh? Wall is easily a top 5 pg this year. He's maybe the best pure 3pt creator in the game right now, and is elite on defense. Not sure what the "Aaron Brooks level" is, but Wall surpassed that years ago.

Wizards have a really good roster right now. Let Budenholzer run his system with this roster and we're right there with Atlanta.

Dark Faze wrote:Randy is fine. He's got the team playing great defense. Could we go small? Yea, and I think it would get us a few more wins over the season and maybe a playoff win, but the limitations we have right now are pretty much all roster based. Beal was supposed to take the next step and it hasn't happened.

This just isn't true. Beal is being held back by Wittman big time. Beal takes four 3 pointers a game despite shooting 47% for them thus far. He's being encouraged to pull up and take midrange shots and long twos, and he only takes 2.5 free throws a game. Show me a list of 2 guards who positively impact the game while only taking two FTs a game.

tontoz wrote:
We shoot long 2s poorly and shoot a lot of them, frequently early in the clock. It doesn't take much analysis to realize this is poor offensive strategy.

this

This year we are averaging 103.9 pts per 100 possessions vs 103.3 last year. Not really seeing the progression here.

gtn130 wrote:

Illmatic12 wrote:The Wizards could do better on offense, certainly. But there's only so much you can do with just one bonafide offensive creator on the roster who is at least at an Aaron Brooks level- and that player obviously can't be on the floor the entire game.

Huh? Wall is easily a top 5 pg this year. He's maybe the best pure 3pt creator in the game right now, and is elite on defense. Not sure what the "Aaron Brooks level" is, but Wall surpassed that years ago.

Wizards have a really good roster right now. Let Budenholzer run his system with this roster and we're right there with Atlanta.

Read my post again. I am saying that if Aaron Brooks is on this team, he would be the second best creator on the roster. Or for that matter Lou Williams on TOR, or Dennis Schroder on ATL. My point is that all these teams that are supposedly 'less talented' than us have more ballhandlers on the roster, which isn't a fault of the coaching. Having more ballhandlers/creators makes it much easier to play with pace, and get into your sets and disrupt defenses, something that the Wiz are clearly struggling to do.

And Budenholzer wouldn't be able to run that same system here.. you don't see the difference between Millsap/Horford and our lumbering, low-post bigs with minimal shooting range?

Atlanta has a flat out better roster than Washington, top-to-bottom. Not 30+ points better or whatever that score was, but they have a deeper and more capable roster than we do currently. (Beal and Porter taking some leaps could change this)