2015 Free Agency and Offseason Part 1

[fishercob]

Guys I have my eye on at the moment:

Gerald Green
Danny Green
Marco Bellinelli
Lou Williams
Corey Joseph (RFA)
Dorell Wright (I'd pay him more if he was tutoring his younger brother)
Robin Lopez
Brandan Wright
Amare
Kosta Koufous
Lavoy Allen
Corey Brewer
Jason Terry
Brandon Rush (for the minimum or training camp invite)
Jonas Jerebko
Al-Farouq Aminu
Mike Dunleavy
Marcus Thronton

Looking for the best combo of players I can get on short term deals. Many of these guys will want longer term security. Some may take one year deals with the cap spike coming the following year; that could work in our favor.

[nate33]

We're going to need a big man to replace Seraphin, unless Blair turns it around. Wright would be ideal. I wonder if he'd take one year at the full MLE in order to set himself up for a big contract in 2016?

[TheSecretWeapon]

We're going to need a big man to replace Seraphin, unless Blair turns it around. Wright would be ideal. I wonder if he'd take one year at the full MLE in order to set himself up for a big contract in 2016?

The Wiz will need a big man to replace Seraphin, unless they re-sign him, and/or unless they decide they're willing to play Blair.

I don't think Blair has lost his ability to play.

I also think the front office will want to re-sign Seraphin.

[fishercob]

We're going to need a big man to replace Seraphin, unless Blair turns it around. Wright would be ideal. I wonder if he'd take one year at the full MLE in order to set himself up for a big contract in 2016?

If our coach would get his head out of his arse, maybe we'd know if Pierce could be our 4th big. Gortat, Nene, Hump and Pierce would be okay as our top 4 bigs. We'd need some reinforcements for sure, but I cringe when I see "need" and "replace Seraphin" in the same sentence.

[Ruzious]

I might have a conniption if the Wiz give Seraphin the kind of money that Brandan Wright gets - but I assume Phoenix is going to pay what it takes to keep Wright - since they gave a 1st to get him - and he's played pretty well for them.

I'd love to get Danny Green for a reasonable price - even though he doesn't fit a need, and it's not realistic. It'll be interesting to see if he takes a low-ball offer from SA.

[Rafael122]

J. Michael seems to think Kev will get $8 mil a year which is absolutely absurd.

Depth Chart:

PG - Wall/Sessions
SG - Beal/Webster
SF - Pierce?/Porter
PF - Nene/Humphries
C - Gortat/Blair

I put Pierce as a question mark b/c we have no idea if he'll hang it up. I would be shocked if Ernie uses the mid-level this offseason. I fully expect him to use the bi-annual exception though. I'm intrigued by someone like Kosta Koufos. He's currently making $2.2 million, so it's right at the BAE. 25 years old as well. Add our 2015 pick, and the roster is at 12...they'll probably add a vet or two.

[pcbothwel]

Id really look for a big man in the draft (Kaminsky, Portis, Looney, Brice Johnson, Alexander) and then use the BAE to go after the next Ariza/Butler...(Luke Babbit, Dorell Wright, Jerebko,Wes Johnson). No need to replace Seraphin if you give his minutes to Nene and move most of Nene's PF minutes to Hump/Draft pick. Let Porter replace Pierce.

PG - Wall/Sessions
SG - Beal/Webster
SF - Porter/BAE/Webster
PF - Humphries/Nene/Johnson
C - Gortat/Nene/Blair

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

We're going to need a big man to replace Seraphin, unless Blair turns it around. Wright would be ideal. I wonder if he'd take one year at the full MLE in order to set himself up for a big contract in 2016?

http://m.bkref.com/m?p=XXplayersXXbXXblairde01.html&t=2

Blair has appeared in only 16 of 54 Wizard games. He has played just 85 minutes.

Once every three or four games, Blair plays on average around five minutes.

After averaging 1300 minutes a season for five seasons this year he will likely play less than 130 minutes.

Numbers game happened to Blair. 96 minutes a game must be split between Nene, Gortat, Seraphin, Humphries , Gooden, and Blair. (This precludes any minutes at PF for Pierce).

Nate, Blair has not played significant minutes and you said so in another thread. At the same time you have posted at least half a dozen or more posts saying that Blair needs to get going or worse.

I think he should request a trade this offseason.

He is better than Seraphin but won't ever get a chance.

I said at the start of the season I didn't understand Blair and Humphries. That was before the Wizards resigned Seraphin.

It does not work to overbook on players who routinely play 15-20 minutes or more, AFTER signing Gortat to $ 60M.

The Wizards are not very good. Predictable things like Gortat playing 10% less minutes AFTER earning roughly 70% more per last season's minute have occurred. (He's costing twice as much as last season, effectively, but that is a coaching preference and roster construction reflection.) I posted about Gortat's minutes before he was resigned.

Fans of the Wizards love to hate players. Blame players. But few look at coaching and management as critically.

I remember when Gar Heard came to coach. Juwan Howard was soon vilified. Heard liked Animal Smith, Gerard King, and basically all blue collar PFs. Howard was benched. The perception of his abilities changed.

Same is going on with Blair.

He played 10 times more minutes for Popovich and Carlisle. Like TSW, I believe Blair has not lost ability to play.

[Dat2U]

I fully expect Ernie to avoid the free agent market to keep space clean for 2016 while simultaneously deciding to pay Seraphin big time money ($6-8 mil per sounds about right considering Ernie's love) because he's part of the core.

Looking deeper into my crystal Pringles container, I also see that we'll scour the bargain basement bin to find the next Martell Webster or DeShawn Stevenson who we'll then overpay in 2016 once Durant spurns us.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I fully expect Ernie to avoid the free agent market to keep space clean for 2016 while simultaneously deciding to pay Seraphin big time money ($6-8 mil per sounds about right considering Ernie's love) because he's part of the core.

Looking deeper into my crystal Pringles container, I also see that we'll scour the bargain basement bin to find the next Martell Webster or DeShawn Stevenson who we'll then overpay in 2016 once Durant spurns us.

I think you're correct on Seraphin. A few years ago, Grunfeld had to be talked out of going full MLE on Nick Young. Who they ended up trading in the Nenê deal.

[Ruzious]

J. Michael seems to think Kev will get $8 mil a year which is absolutely absurd.

Is Ernie really that stupid, or is this J. Michael being J. Michael? For the most part, we're not geniuses here, and almost all of us understand that Seraphin has played poorly this season and pretty much throughout his career. Ernie has paid assistants/advisors/consultants that can't all be fools. Surely, they can provide him with convincing and overwhelming data showing this. The level of ineptness would have to be too great to sign him for anywhere near that kind of money, imo, so I refuse to believe it.

[nate33]

J. Michael seems to think Kev will get $8 mil a year which is absolutely absurd.

Is Ernie really that stupid, or is this J. Michael being J. Michael? For the most part, we're not geniuses here, and almost all of us understand that Seraphin has played poorly this season and pretty much throughout his career. Ernie has paid assistants/advisors/consultants that can't all be fools. Surely, they can provide him with convincing and overwhelming data showing this. The level of ineptness would have to be too great to sign him for anywhere near that kind of money, imo, so I refuse to believe it.

Yeah, I agree. I think the Wizards are interested in resigning Seraphin, but I think they're looking at $4 a year, not $8M. They'll let him walk before giving up $8M. You don't pay $8M for a 15 minute-per-game backup big.

[miller31time]

I'd lose my mind if we signed Seraphin to a deal worth 4mil per year. He's just not worth it. 8mil per year? I'd look for another team to root for.

[nate33]

I'd lose my mind if we signed Seraphin to a deal worth 4mil per year. He's just not worth it. 8mil per year? I'd look for another team to root for.

Reread my post. I said 4 dollars a year. Not 4 mil.

Seriously, I'd be against paying him $4M, but I think EG is willing to pay him that much. But he won't pay $8M. That's crazy talk.

[gtn130]

And if the salary cap is $90m in 2016? Not that crazy for Seraphin to command that type of figure.

[gtn130]

If you give Seraphin the current MLE and add 45% to it (a realistic increase to the salary cap in 2016), then he'd be making $7.7m. lol at people doubting Seraphin could make that in the open market.

[Ruzious]

If you give Seraphin the current MLE and add 45% to it (a realistic increase to the salary cap in 2016), then he'd be making $7.7m. lol at people doubting Seraphin could make that in the open market.

But why would the Wiz pay the MLE to a player they've had for 5 years and still plays only 15.5 minutes a game - playing roughly (in more ways than one) 30% of the game? Hump plays more and gets 4.3 mil this season and 4.6 next season - and Hump was and is a better player.

[JWizmentality]

Seraphin at 8mil/yr. I couldn't handle that. I'd seriously consider rooting for another team.

[nate33]

If you give Seraphin the current MLE and add 45% to it (a realistic increase to the salary cap in 2016), then he'd be making $7.7m. lol at people doubting Seraphin could make that in the open market.

But why would the Wiz pay the MLE to a player they've had for 5 years and still plays only 15.5 minutes a game - playing roughly (in more ways than one) 30% of the game? Hump plays more and gets 4.3 mil this season and 4.6 next season - and Hump was and is a better player.

Exactly. If Seraphin was a starter, or a high quality 22-25 mpg backup big, then he'd be worth the full MLE. But he's not. He's a 9th man type of big man. While that's an upgrade over what he has been most of his career, it's still not very good.

Teams could do worse, but nobody is dying to pay big money to a guy like Seraphin. Or rather, they shouldn't want to do so. If somebody does offer a ton, then let him walk. I'd rather pay a draft pick, or a D-League guy, or somebody's cast-off a vet minimum contract than pay an additional $7M a year for what is likely to be just a very modest upgrade. Look at it this way: would you rather have Drew Gooden at $900K, or Kevin Seraphin at $8M?

[gtn130]

If you give Seraphin the current MLE and add 45% to it (a realistic increase to the salary cap in 2016), then he'd be making $7.7m. lol at people doubting Seraphin could make that in the open market.

But why would the Wiz pay the MLE to a player they've had for 5 years and still plays only 15.5 minutes a game - playing roughly (in more ways than one) 30% of the game? Hump plays more and gets 4.3 mil this season and 4.6 next season - and Hump was and is a better player.

Exactly. If Seraphin was a starter, or a high quality 22-25 mpg backup big, then he'd be worth the full MLE. But he's not. He's a 9th man type of big man. While that's an upgrade over what he has been most of his career, it's still not very good.

Teams could do worse, but nobody is dying to pay big money to a guy like Seraphin. Or rather, they shouldn't want to do so. If somebody does offer a ton, then let him walk. I'd rather pay a draft pick, or a D-League guy, or somebody's cast-off a vet minimum contract than pay an additional $7M a year for what is likely to be just a very modest upgrade. Look at it this way: would you rather have Drew Gooden at $900K, or Kevin Seraphin at $8M?

I completely agree with this, but we also gave Webster the full MLE, so it wouldn't be totally crazy is all I'm saying