Expansion Draft Scenario -- Who would you protect?

[Texas Chuck]

Trades and Transactions board is going to be doing an expansion draft project where we imagine we are running a new expansion team starting play in 2015/16 and having to create our initial roster pulled from current NBA teams.

So in advance of that I'm trying to get the best possible idea of what 8 players each franchise would most likely choose to protect. And while last year we depended on our Trade board posters to provide us that list, this year we thought it would be more accurate if we consulted with the team boards.

So I would love to get your opinions itt on which 8 players you think the Wizards would protect in an expansion draft. I am attaching a link to last year's project so you can see some of the criteria we used when assembling the expansion team. Other than the cap figures the rules would be roughly the same this year.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1348605

We'd also love to have any and all of you come participate in this project.

[nate33]

It's pretty easy for Washington since we're already planning to clear the decks for Durant. The only players on the roster that matter are Wall, Beal, Porter, Gortat and Oubre. Humphries has a cheap option for next year so he'd be protected too.

Since we can protect 8, we'd go ahead and protect two more guys that figure to help us the most this season. The candidates are: Sessions, Neal, Anderson, Dudley, Nene and Gooden (all are expiring contracts). My guess is that they'd assume nobody would take Nene (contract too big) or Dudley (about to have back surgery) so they wouldn't bother protecting them. That means they'd protect the next two best players: Sessions and Anderson.

So:

Protected players:
Wall
Beal
Porter
Humphries
Gortat
Sessions
Oubre
Anderson

Unprotected:
Nene
Dudley
Neal
Temple
Gooden
Blair
Webster

[Higga]

Wall and Beal are the only ones I really care about. Maybe Porter.

[Wizardspride]

Wall and Beal are the only ones I really care about. Maybe Porter.

Not even Oubre?

[Dat2U]

1. Wall
2. Beal
3. Porter
4. Oubre
5. Gortat
6. ???
7. ???
8. ???

I can't see protecting journeyman like Hump, Sessions or Anderson. I'd leave Hump & Blair available and hope someone takes their contract.

[nate33]

1. Wall
2. Beal
3. Porter
4. Oubre
5. Gortat
6. ???
7. ???
8. ???

I can't see protecting journeyman like Hump, Sessions or Anderson. I'd leave Hump & Blair available and hope someone takes their contract.

Good grief Dat2U. When will the hate end?

Do you honestly believe that, given the choice between losing Humphries right now or not, the Wizards would willingly just let him walk out the door with no compensation whatsoever? Humphries is decent role player on a good, flexible contract who should give us 2000 useful minutes next year. Of course they'd protect him from an expansion draft.

And they'd protect Sessions because there are no other options at backup PG. Sessions isn't great, but he's serviceable and he's much better than Temple or a D-Leaguer.

So the only real debate is on the 8th guy to protect. It comes down to Anderson, Neal, Dudley, Nene or Gooden. I think it's a pretty sure bet that Anderson would be the one protected only because he's the only one of that group who needs to be protected. Nobody would want the other guys.

[Dat2U]

1. Wall
2. Beal
3. Porter
4. Oubre
5. Gortat
6. ???
7. ???
8. ???

I can't see protecting journeyman like Hump, Sessions or Anderson. I'd leave Hump & Blair available and hope someone takes their contract.

Good grief Dat2U. When will the hate end?

Do you honestly believe that, given the choice between losing Humphries right now or not, the Wizards would willingly just let him walk out the door with no compensation whatsoever? Humphries is decent role player on a good, flexible contract who should give us 2000 useful minutes next year. Of course they'd protect him from an expansion draft.

And they'd protect Sessions because there are no other options at backup PG. Sessions isn't great, but he's serviceable and he's much better than Temple or a D-Leaguer.

So the only real debate is on the 8th guy to protect. It comes down to Anderson, Neal, Dudley, Nene or Gooden. I think it's a pretty sure bet that Anderson would be the one protected only because he's the only one of that group who needs to be protected. Nobody would want the other guys.

Remind me how many playoff minutes Humphries got this past season?

Maybe the organization isn't as high on him either. Maybe their internal numbers late last season showed Gooden was a better option (and he is IMO).

In my CCJ mode, I'm pretty sure we could find lots of bargain basement free agent options that would do just as well if not better on our front line. That Famous kid who got picked up by Dallas would be one example I'd mention.

[nate33]

I don't know what to say. If you honestly believe that Famous is a better player right now than Humphries, then there's no point in discussing it further. You are normally a very level-headed and objective poster. I don't understand how you've grown to hate Humphries so much. The guy averages 14 and 11 per 36 with a PER of 15.4 while playing serviceable defense and you'd be happy to replacing him with a random walk-on from the D-League.

[Kanyewest]

It's pretty easy for Washington since we're already planning to clear the decks for Durant. The only players on the roster that matter are Wall, Beal, Porter, Gortat and Oubre. Humphries has a cheap option for next year so he'd be protected too.

Since we can protect 8, we'd go ahead and protect two more guys that figure to help us the most this season. The candidates are: Sessions, Neal, Anderson, Dudley, Nene and Gooden (all are expiring contracts). My guess is that they'd assume nobody would take Nene (contract too big) or Dudley (about to have back surgery) so they wouldn't bother protecting them. That means they'd protect the next two best players: Sessions and Anderson.

So:

Protected players:
Wall
Beal
Porter
Humphries
Gortat
Sessions
Oubre
Anderson

Unprotected:
Nene
Dudley
Neal
Temple
Gooden
Blair
Webster

I think I would keep Nene instead of Humphries. Nene can play the 4 and the 5 whereas Humphries isn't very versatile and can only play power forward where he isn't even a good defender. Plus Humphries didn't even crack the playoff rotation. If Gortat misses any time, I would certainly rather have Nene.

While the Wizards would end up saving more money with the departure of Nene, at this point in the offseason- it really wouldn't do any good from a roster construction standpoind. I suppose Humphries is better value for the money but it's not like the Wizards can use Nene's salary to add a piece.

[MikeTheKid]

1. Wall
2. Beal
3. Porter
4. Oubre
5. Gortat
6. Dylan
7. Dylan
8. Dylan

Fixed

[Dat2U]

I don't know what to say. If you honestly believe that Famous is a better player right now than Humphries, then there's no point in discussing it further. You are normally a very level-headed and objective poster. I don't understand how you've grown to hate Humphries so much. The guy averages 14 and 11 per 36 with a PER of 15.4 while playing serviceable defense and you'd be happy to replacing him with a random walk-on from the D-League.

I don't hate. I observe & translate what I see with my minds eye.

Seriously... I actually liked the guy a few years back when I thought he was underrated. After we signed him, I looked very closely at his time in Boston and simply wasn't impressed. He was active and put up solid numbers in limited minutes, fans really liked his play, but the Celtics were still better when he was off the floor.

Then I watched him play for us an observed how he puts up big numbers at times but doesn't really impact games. This is not a zero sum game. Good stats doesn't necessarily equate to wins. His defense is quite poor for a PF. Not Enes Kanter bad but similar to what we already have in Drew Gooden. I'd consider him in the bottom third defensively of all NBA PFs. I've already talked a ton about his offense. If he starts legitimately spacing the floor with his 3pt shot he could reach Gooden's level and be a passable rotation guy. But as of right now, until he proves he can make that shot, I consider him a bad NBA player. I'd put him in the bottom 25% of players in the NBA currently. I also believe there's a great deal of talent, currently not in NBA that could come in and not be in that bottom 25%.

[nate33]

I think I would keep Nene instead of Humphries. Nene can play the 4 and the 5 whereas Humphries isn't very versatile and can only play power forward where he isn't even a good defender. Plus Humphries didn't even crack the playoff rotation. If Gortat misses any time, I would certainly rather have Nene.

While the Wizards would end up saving more money with the departure of Nene, at this point in the offseason- it really wouldn't do any good from a roster construction standpoind. I suppose Humphries is better value for the money but it's not like the Wizards can use Nene's salary to add a piece.

I can totally understand the stance that Nene is more important to us than Humphries. But in an expansion draft scenario, I think it's a safe gamble to leave Nene unprotected under the assumption that no one wants to pay $13M to rent him for a year. Particularly since Nene is moody and probably wouldn't be inclined to bust his but for an expansion team.

[gambitx777]

Wall
Beal
Porter
Gotat
Obure
Hump
Anderson
Sessions.
The thing is that, any one with a one year deals would probably be picked, because vets are important and one year contracts will be targeted since mostly not so important players will be unprotected. You need to remember that the cap floor is a thing and not too many players with big salaries will be unprotected. So NENE on a one year deal will be nice cap filler for an expansion team.

[nate33]

Wall
Beal
Porter
Gotat
Obure
Hump
Anderson
Sessions.
The thing is that, any one with a one year deals would probably be picked, because vets are important and one year contracts will be targeted since mostly not so important players will be unprotected. You need to remember that the cap floor is a thing and not too many players with big salaries will be unprotected. So NENE on a one year deal will be nice cap filler for an expansion team.

The cap floor isn't a big thing. If a team payroll is below the cap floor, they simply have to pay their players more money to get up to the cap floor, which makes the players happy. It's not like adding Nene instead of, say, Blair is going to actually save the owner money.

No expansion team wants Nene and the attitude he would likely have if he was stuck playing on an expansion roster.

If a team really wanted to add salary to get up closer to the cap floor, I'm sure they could arrange deals with other teams to take bad contracts off their hands in exchange for picks/prospects.

[gambitx777]

I think teams would think, vet center, 1 year deal possible dead line trade chip.

[Ruzious]

I don't know what to say. If you honestly believe that Famous is a better player right now than Humphries, then there's no point in discussing it further. You are normally a very level-headed and objective poster. I don't understand how you've grown to hate Humphries so much. The guy averages 14 and 11 per 36 with a PER of 15.4 while playing serviceable defense and you'd be happy to replacing him with a random walk-on from the D-League.

I don't hate. I observe & translate what I see with my minds eye.

Seriously... I actually liked the guy a few years back when I thought he was underrated. After we signed him, I looked very closely at his time in Boston and simply wasn't impressed. He was active and put up solid numbers in limited minutes, fans really liked his play, but the Celtics were still better when he was off the floor.

Then I watched him play for us an observed how he puts up big numbers at times but doesn't really impact games. This is not a zero sum game. Good stats doesn't necessarily equate to wins. His defense is quite poor for a PF. Not Enes Kanter bad but similar to what we already have in Drew Gooden. I'd consider him in the bottom third defensively of all NBA PFs. I've already talked a ton about his offense. If he starts legitimately spacing the floor with his 3pt shot he could reach Gooden's level and be a passable rotation guy. But as of right now, until he proves he can make that shot, I consider him a bad NBA player. I'd put him in the bottom 25% of players in the NBA currently. I also believe there's a great deal of talent, currently not in NBA that could come in and not be in that bottom 25%.

I was actually impressed with the improvements he made on defense in the second half of the season. He seemed to get much better at help defense - which surprised me. Another thing that surprised me positively - he does a nice job finishing on secondary breaks to the basket and doesn't fumble the ball like a lot of bigs do cough*Vesely*cough*Seraphin*cough. I like Hump - he's easily the Wiz' second best big. How's that for a left-handed compliment?

[J-Ves]

Wall
Beal
Porter
Oubre
Gortat
Hump
Nene
Sessions

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

The fact that we struggle to get to 8 that we really care about is telling.

[stevemcqueen1]

The fact that we struggle to get to 8 that we really care about is telling.

Yeah. But I bet it's a similar situation for a lot of teams. Most good teams only have 8 good players or so in their rotation. The back end of your rotation is probably going to be guys who are very replaceable.

[bondom34]

Hey guys, seems the vote went:

Wall, Beal, Porter, Oubre, Gortat, Humphries, Sessions, Anderson

Thanks for the help!