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Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season

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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#281 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Sun Mar 6, 2016 6:37 pm

We are 5 games 'up' on the 9th overall suckiest team- the Knicks.

I see almost no path to keeping our pick, other than winning the lottery.

It's almost too late to hope for a John Wall hangnail that keeps him out and our nightly win probability to drop enough that we could tank hard enough.

I think I'll revert to the fetal position now.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#282 » by closg00 » Sun Mar 6, 2016 8:36 pm

long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We are 5 games 'up' on the 9th overall suckiest team- the Knicks.

I see almost no path to keeping our pick, other than winning the lottery.

It's almost too late to hope for a John Wall hangnail that keeps him out and our nightly win probability to drop enough that we could tank hard enough.

I think I'll revert to the fetal position now.


Well, for now we can bottle-up the rage while we wait for the season to pan-out. The likely outcome for the weary Wizards fans is:

1. We don't make the playoffs
2. We get pick 10/11/12 which goes to PHX.
3. Ernie & Randy are back again next year
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#283 » by AFM » Sun Mar 6, 2016 8:58 pm

Yup.
No end in sight baby!
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#284 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 6, 2016 10:25 pm

closg00 wrote:
long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We are 5 games 'up' on the 9th overall suckiest team- the Knicks.

I see almost no path to keeping our pick, other than winning the lottery.

It's almost too late to hope for a John Wall hangnail that keeps him out and our nightly win probability to drop enough that we could tank hard enough.

I think I'll revert to the fetal position now.

Well, for now we can bottle-up the rage while we wait for the season to pan-out. The likely outcome for the weary Wizards fans is:

1. We don't make the playoffs
2. We get pick 10/11/12 which goes to PHX.
3. Ernie & Randy are back again next year

Well, Beal's battered butt gives Ernie his perfect out -- as usual. It's those dang injuries, that's what cost us. If it weren't for those injuries -- and the way our opponents keep *trying* to win -- we'd go 82-0. How's any of that my fault.

Markieff Morris is "an established NBA player," btw -- we've "had our eye on him for a while now." Only foolish teams like Boston rely on their young guys. Oh, and Golden State.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#285 » by payitforward » Sun Mar 6, 2016 10:27 pm

closg00 wrote:
long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:We are 5 games 'up' on the 9th overall suckiest team- the Knicks.

I see almost no path to keeping our pick, other than winning the lottery.

It's almost too late to hope for a John Wall hangnail that keeps him out and our nightly win probability to drop enough that we could tank hard enough.

I think I'll revert to the fetal position now.

Well, for now we can bottle-up the rage while we wait for the season to pan-out. The likely outcome for the weary Wizards fans is:

1. We don't make the playoffs
2. We get pick 10/11/12 which goes to PHX.
3. Ernie & Randy are back again next year

Well, Beal's battered butt gives Ernie his perfect out -- as usual. It's those dang injuries, that's what cost us. If it weren't for those injuries -- and the way our opponents keep *trying* to win -- we'd go 82-0. How's any of that my fault.

Markieff Morris is "an established NBA player," btw -- we've "had our eye on him for a while now." Only foolish teams like Boston rely on their young guys. Oh, and Golden State.

But... I don't think Randy will be back. Someone will have to be sacrificed. And a new coach, if we don't improve, offers his Ernieness yet another chance to have it all be someone else's fault!
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#286 » by dckingsfan » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:54 am

At the 70 game mark, yoooooouuuuurrrr Washington Wizards are 35-35, a .500 - on track to win 41 games. doclinkin is on the rail and heading home...
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#287 » by dckingsfan » Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:09 pm

Tie breakers determined by ECS

Wins
56 - WallToWall
55 - JWizmentality
54 - stevemcqueen1, Bigwig
53 - TheBlackCzar
52 - WizStorm, thricethefun, LyricalRico, Joe_Wiz, Illuminaire
51 - Hidden Eye, benb331, DANNYLANDOVER, queridiculo, Illmatic12, dobrojim, wizfan1984, FreeBalling, sfam
50 - gesa2, Higga, nuposse04, The Fax, DCZards, keynote, CntOutSmrtCrazy, MDStar, Donkey McDonkerton, AFM
49 - nate33, wermolwermol777, DCKingsFan, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, fishercob, Ruzious, Kanyewest, The Consiglieri
48 - MikeTheKid, Nigel Tufnel, SizzlinSimms, J-Ves, dangermouse, Dat2U, JAR69, Fischella, 80sballboy
47 - KevinFCheng, verbal8, Severn Hoos, sashae, Benjammin, pineappleheadindc, willbcocks, McFilthy
46 - TGW, long suffrin' boulez fan, dandridge 10, WizTom, WizBiz
45 - miller31time, BigA, cammac, bulletproof_32, TheBabyMaker
44 - MJG, Hypnotizer
43 - tontoz, Earth2Ted, tkunit, montestewart, closg00
42 - CCJ, Induveca, TheSecretWeapon
41 - doclinkin
40 - payitforward
37 - Upper Decker

Eastern Conference Standings
2nd - stevemcqueen1, benb331, thricethefun, JWizmentality, LyricalRico
3rd - nuposse04, nate33, The Fax, wermolwermol777, Severn Hoos, queridiculo, keynote, Illmatic12, Fischella, gesa2, FreeBalling, Bigwig, sfam, Illuminaire, DCZards
4th - J-Ves, KevinFCheng, MikeTheKid, DCKingsFan, Dat2U, sashae, Benjammin, pineappleheadindc, willbcocks, wizfan1984, Kanyewest, The Consiglieri
5th - miller31time, BigA, cammac, dandridge 10, bulletproof_32, TheBabyMaker, closg00, WizTom, long suffrin' boulez fan, WizBiz, McFilthy
6th - Earth2Ted, montestewart, TheSecretWeapon

Media Predictions
51 - Bill Simmons
48 - Ken Berger, Ananth Pandian

47 - Zach Harper
46 - Doc's Sports
45.5 - Westgate Superbook
45 - Bleacher Report, James Herbert
44 - Sports Illustrated
41 - FiveThirtyEight[/quote]
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#288 » by payitforward » Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:44 am

Wow, those inflated projections look really silly now.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#289 » by AFM » Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:10 am

Hindsight is 20/20 or sumthin tss tss
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#290 » by dckingsfan » Wed Mar 23, 2016 2:31 am

payitforward wrote:Wow, those inflated projections look really silly now.

What is interesting to me is that much of the media and the bookies got it wrong as well...
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#291 » by TheSecretWeapon » Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:07 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:Wow, those inflated projections look really silly now.

What is interesting to me is that much of the media and the bookies got it wrong as well...

The bookies aren't making a prediction as much as they are trying to set a threshold at which they make money. Their doesn't need to be accurate, it needs to be plausible at the time wagers are being placed so that bets are fairly evenly divided between over and under.

A lot of the media guys -- even good ones -- believe in conventional wisdom stuff that hasn't been proven. Stuff like a good series in the playoffs is a meaningful predictor of the following regular season. They believe in "momentum" and "stepping up" and other similar stuff.

Also, a lot of media guys may watch only a handful of Wizards games during the regular season. Then they watch them against the Raptors, and WOW the Wizards look frigging awesome! That team is going to KILL next year because they've found their style, they're really awesome, and they've "learned what it takes to win" in beating up on Toronto and playing a tough series against Atlanta.

Or, they could just get stuff wrong. At some level, all our predictions -- even with analysis and a "process" -- is just guessing. So many factors are unknown and unknowable.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#292 » by dckingsfan » Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:06 pm

Great post about the bookies - forgot that they are trying to be dead middle...
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#293 » by tontoz » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:30 pm

I think people overlooked how many things had to go right for the Wiz to win 46 last year.

-The East sucked horribly
-We had good luck with injuries. Wall and Gortat were healthy all year and they were our two best players.
-37 year old Pierce came up big. Last year his ORTG was 112. This year it is 93. He was major clutch last year as well.
-Other teams got hurt big with injuries. Bosh and George going down effectively ended the seasons for Miami and Indy, two teams that easily could have had better records than us.
-Butler went on an epic shooting spree while Beal was out.

It was unlikely for us to get that lucky again this season.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#294 » by krii » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:18 am

First of all I am pretty sure nobody thought Eastern Conference will be that good this season.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#295 » by doclinkin » Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:16 pm

Nobody predicted it?

doclinkin wrote:
doclinkin wrote:41.

Still relying on a John Wall 'fountain of youth' effect on aging veterans. All of whom are starting the year unhealthy and out of shape. None of whom are former all stars, nor under respected high talents like Ariza.

Zero real depth in any of the key positions that make this team run. Back-ups in preseason gave up every lead we earned, even against scrub teams. Guys like Harrington, who helped staunch the bleeding in preseason, won't even be on the squad, even if okay the scrubs will get less run. Still, the hope is always that health never becomes a factor, but when the only bench depth you have is 'Hope' you're vulnerable to chance.

We rely on the sudden surprising maturation of Otto, Beal etc, while missing the fact that playoff Otto was unscouted unpredicted and not gamed for as a threat. He's a great 3rd option, but if he has to assume a bigger role he's easier to neutralize. The concern is, any health issues for our first threats reduces his effectiveness. He's not a go-to one on one creator. And actually in that role we only have John Wall and who? Ramon Sessions? Who do we have who says: my ball, I got this.

And the East gets stronger, little by little.


doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:I kinda feel like the depth is the best we've had in years - particularly if the goal is to play more small ball.

...

Good point about Otto. There's a chance he regresses a bit once the Scouting Report comes out on him. Though since he isn't really a shot creator on the offense, I'm not sure what you do to stop his contributions. Making smart, hard cuts at the right time is always going to work, even against a good scouting report.


Deep in mediocrity. I like Jared Dudley, when healthy.
...

Depth. If Beal takes his usual month's vacation mid season we have Gary Neal. That's it. Anderson is out to January minimum. Dudley recovering. Where's our small ball depth again? Gooden?
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#296 » by krii » Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:48 pm

doclinkin wrote:Nobody predicted it?

doclinkin wrote:
doclinkin wrote:41.

Still relying on a John Wall 'fountain of youth' effect on aging veterans. All of whom are starting the year unhealthy and out of shape. None of whom are former all stars, nor under respected high talents like Ariza.

Zero real depth in any of the key positions that make this team run. Back-ups in preseason gave up every lead we earned, even against scrub teams. Guys like Harrington, who helped staunch the bleeding in preseason, won't even be on the squad, even if okay the scrubs will get less run. Still, the hope is always that health never becomes a factor, but when the only bench depth you have is 'Hope' you're vulnerable to chance.

We rely on the sudden surprising maturation of Otto, Beal etc, while missing the fact that playoff Otto was unscouted unpredicted and not gamed for as a threat. He's a great 3rd option, but if he has to assume a bigger role he's easier to neutralize. The concern is, any health issues for our first threats reduces his effectiveness. He's not a go-to one on one creator. And actually in that role we only have John Wall and who? Ramon Sessions? Who do we have who says: my ball, I got this.

And the East gets stronger, little by little.


doclinkin wrote:
Deep in mediocrity. I like Jared Dudley, when healthy.
...

Depth. If Beal takes his usual month's vacation mid season we have Gary Neal. That's it. Anderson is out to January minimum. Dudley recovering. Where's our small ball depth again? Gooden?


Touche ;-)
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#297 » by payitforward » Thu Mar 24, 2016 8:03 pm

The good news is that it'd be very difficult for us to fall below #10 in the EC. That means only 9 of the 15 teams in the Conference are better than the Wizards. Conclusion: we are a terrific team, built w/ skill and a productive mix of youth and experience by one of the most senior and proven Front Offices in the league.

If you add, to the 35 games we've won, all the games we should have won, and those we would have won had Alan Anderson and other stars been healthy, and then top that off with all the games that Millie seems to think we actually did win, despite some mistake in the posted final score, the result provides the true measure of this team: we're undefeated.
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#298 » by dckingsfan » Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:17 pm

Tie breakers determined by ECS

Wins
56 - WallToWall
55 - JWizmentality
54 - stevemcqueen1, Bigwig
53 - TheBlackCzar
52 - WizStorm, thricethefun, LyricalRico, Joe_Wiz, Illuminaire
51 - Hidden Eye, benb331, DANNYLANDOVER, queridiculo, Illmatic12, dobrojim, wizfan1984, FreeBalling, sfam
50 - gesa2, Higga, nuposse04, The Fax, DCZards, keynote, CntOutSmrtCrazy, MDStar, Donkey McDonkerton, AFM
49 - nate33, wermolwermol777, DCKingsFan, CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, fishercob, Ruzious, Kanyewest, The Consiglieri
48 - MikeTheKid, Nigel Tufnel, SizzlinSimms, J-Ves, dangermouse, Dat2U, JAR69, Fischella, 80sballboy
47 - KevinFCheng, verbal8, Severn Hoos, sashae, Benjammin, pineappleheadindc, willbcocks, McFilthy
46 - TGW, long suffrin' boulez fan, dandridge 10, WizTom, WizBiz

45 - miller31time, BigA, cammac, bulletproof_32, TheBabyMaker
44 - MJG, Hypnotizer
43 - tontoz, Earth2Ted, tkunit, montestewart, closg00
42 - CCJ, Induveca, TheSecretWeapon
41 - doclinkin
40 - payitforward
37 - Upper Decker

Eastern Conference Standings
2nd - stevemcqueen1, benb331, thricethefun, JWizmentality, LyricalRico
3rd - nuposse04, nate33, The Fax, wermolwermol777, Severn Hoos, queridiculo, keynote, Illmatic12, Fischella, gesa2, FreeBalling, Bigwig, sfam, Illuminaire, DCZards
4th - J-Ves, KevinFCheng, MikeTheKid, DCKingsFan, Dat2U, sashae, Benjammin, pineappleheadindc, willbcocks, wizfan1984, Kanyewest, The Consiglieri
5th - miller31time, BigA, cammac, dandridge 10, bulletproof_32, TheBabyMaker, closg00, WizTom, long suffrin' boulez fan, WizBiz, McFilthy
6th - Earth2Ted, montestewart, TheSecretWeapon

Media Predictions
51 - Bill Simmons
48 - Ken Berger, Ananth Pandian
47 - Zach Harper
46 - Doc's Sports
45.5 - Westgate Superbook

45 - Bleacher Report, James Herbert
44 - Sports Illustrated
41 - FiveThirtyEight
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#299 » by payitforward » Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:48 pm

Hey... if we close out 5-5, I win -- for the 2d time in 3 years.

In fairness, I should mention that the only reason I chose "40" was that it was available, not taken. Otherwise, I'd have gone for 41. So, if I win it's just luck. Then again... it's just luck whoever wins! :)
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Re: Predict the Wizards Record '15-'16 season 

Post#300 » by payitforward » Tue Mar 29, 2016 6:22 pm

Since February 1, we've won exactly 5 games against teams who as of today have a winning record.
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