2016 Offseason Thread -- Not (just) #KD2DC

[fishercob]

While there will invariably be some KD discussion in here, I wanted a set up our usual space to discuss free agency and trade scenarios. Lots of moving parts with surging salary cap over the next couple of years, primary targets, contingency plans, etc.

[nate33]

Our salary situation will be as follows:

John Wall - $16,957,900
Marcin Gortat - $12,000,000
Otto Porter - $5,893,981
Kelly Oubre - $2,006,640
Martell Webster - $833,333 (buyout stretched)
Bradley Beal - $14,734,954 (cap hold)
Kris Humphries - $4,630,000 (team option)
2016 1st - 1,257,000 (assuming 20th pick)

Total $58,313,808 (assuming Beal and Humphries are retained)
2016 Cap projection $91,000,000
2017 Cap projection $108,000,000

max salary coming off a rookie contract (Beal): $20,400,000
max salary for 7-9 year vet (Durant or Horford): $24,900,000

[nate33]

So if we dump Humphries and sign Durant to the max, our payroll will be $78.6M for 7 players. Add 4 minimum salary cap holds to fill the roster and the cap number is $80.8M. With a cap projection of $91M, that leaves $10.2M to woo another free agent.

This would be my "Plan A". Sign Durant to the max. Sign Terrence Jones or Motiejunas to a $10.2M contract. Draft a backup center. Use the Room MInimum ($2.7M) to sign Sato. Resign Gooden and Temple to vet minimum contracts. Then go see if we can add any over-the-hill ring-chasing vets to vet minimum deals. Nene would be great, but probably wishful thinking. Our lineup would look like this:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre/Temple
SF Durant/Porter
PF Porter/Jones/Gooden
C Gortat/2016 1st/Aging vet

[nate33]

If we got word that we couldn't get Durant, Plan B would be to go after Whiteside and Terrence Jones as free agents. Whiteside is unrestricted. Jones is a RFA but Houston also has Capella and Motiejunas so it's questionable how much Morey would pay to match. We could afford a max deal for Whiteside plus about $14M for Jones. Then sign Sato with the Room Minimum and stop gap vet minimum vets after that:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Jones/2016 1st
C Gortat/Whiteside

That's not a contender yet, but it's a very young team who should be a 45-50 win team in the East while still improving internally. Eventually, we would shop Gortat for younger talent, but I'd wait and see how well Whiteside integrates first. We might need Gortat as leverage to make sure Whiteside stays in line.

[pcbothwel]

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Jones/2016 1st
C Gortat/Whiteside

That's not a contender yet, but it's a very young team who should be a 45-50 win team in the East while still improving internally.

Wait... We won 44 and 46 games the last two years. Porter has vastly improved in that time and Wall and Beal continue to get better. You then add in Satoransky, T Jones, Oubre and Whiteside and you think "45-50 win team"...
No way. At least 50 wins and yes, that's a contender.

[nate33]

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Jones/2016 1st
C Gortat/Whiteside

That's not a contender yet, but it's a very young team who should be a 45-50 win team in the East while still improving internally.

Wait... We won 44 and 46 games the last two years. Porter has vastly improved in that time and Wall and Beal continue to get better. You then add in Satoransky, T Jones, Oubre and Whiteside and you think "45-50 win team"...
No way. At least 50 wins and yes, that's a contender.

Perhaps so.

Whiteside > Nene
Jones > Humphries

The question is, will Sato be a short term downgrade from Sessions, and will Oubre be able to take over for Dudley and Anderson?

Yeah. I guess you're right. That team is certainly 4 or 5 wins better than our current team - particularly when you factor continued improvement from Beal, Porter and Jones who are all still quite young.

[Dat2U]

If we got word that we couldn't get Durant, Plan B would be to go after Whiteside and Terrence Jones as free agents. Whiteside is unrestricted. Jones is a RFA but Houston also has Capella and Motiejunas so it's questionable how much Morey would pay to match. We could afford a max deal for Whiteside plus about $14M for Jones. Then sign Sato with the Room Minimum and stop gap vet minimum vets after that:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Jones/2016 1st
C Gortat/Whiteside

That's not a contender yet, but it's a very young team who should be a 45-50 win team in the East while still improving internally. Eventually, we would shop Gortat for younger talent, but I'd wait and see how well Whiteside integrates first. We might need Gortat as leverage to make sure Whiteside stays in line.

Whiteside isn't coming here to be anyone's backup. He's likely looking for a big payday and a big role with big minutes that go with that. You sign Whiteside, you need to have a deal for Gortat in place because I'm sure he's not willing to be anyone's backup either.

[nate33]

If we got word that we couldn't get Durant, Plan B would be to go after Whiteside and Terrence Jones as free agents. Whiteside is unrestricted. Jones is a RFA but Houston also has Capella and Motiejunas so it's questionable how much Morey would pay to match. We could afford a max deal for Whiteside plus about $14M for Jones. Then sign Sato with the Room Minimum and stop gap vet minimum vets after that:

PG Wall/Sato
SG Beal/Oubre
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Jones/2016 1st
C Gortat/Whiteside

That's not a contender yet, but it's a very young team who should be a 45-50 win team in the East while still improving internally. Eventually, we would shop Gortat for younger talent, but I'd wait and see how well Whiteside integrates first. We might need Gortat as leverage to make sure Whiteside stays in line.

Whiteside isn't coming here to be anyone's backup. He's likely looking for a big payday and a big role with big minutes that go with that. You sign Whiteside, you need to have a deal for Gortat in place because I'm sure he's not willing to be anyone's backup either.

Yeah, maybe you're right. Whiteside was pretty foul-prone last season and could only play 24 minutes a game, but I see that he's up to 30 minutes a game now. Fine, move Gortat to the bench and begin making calls to trade him. I wouldn't make a panic trade just to dump him though. We might have to be patient and wait for an opportunity to get value out of him.

[pcbothwel]

Fine, move Gortat to the bench and begin making calls to trade him. I wouldn't make a panic trade just to dump him though. We might have to be patient and wait for an opportunity to get value out of him.

Nate, this we agree on. When I first thought of Whiteside I immediately thought of how to trade Gortat. But at 12M he is not an anchor on our cap space and we then have one C that is better at our spread offense who can stand in the middle and grad Rebounds (Whiteside) and another C who is great at the PnR (Gortat).
We can wait until a team really needs a C and move Gortat when we're good and ready.

[Higga]

I'd like Horford. Good fit at stretch 4 and weakens a division rival.

[Rafael122]

I'd still look into trading for Cousins. Sacramento has a gaping hole at the 2 spot, just rolling with guys like Belinelli and McLemore. Cousins is actually the 4 w/WCS being their starting center. We have no long term solution at the 4. Sign and trade Beal plus picks for Cousins, maybe get a third team involved that sends younger talent to Sacramento. Figure out the rest later, if you can still get Durant then go for it. If I'm not mistaken, Cousins would actually be cheaper than Beal.

[Dat2U]

I'd like Horford. Good fit at stretch 4 and weakens a division rival.

Horford is a C and probably only a C at this stage considering he's played his entire career there.

[Illmatic12]

I'd like Horford. Good fit at stretch 4 and weakens a division rival.

If we signed Horford, rather than playing him at PF I'd look to move Gortat. Then we pursue Terrence Jones in RFA, extend Beal.


Wall/Beal/Porter/Jones/Horford + Oubre/Sato

^That lineup is basically a more athletic, higher ceiling, younger version of the current Hawks (except with Horford himself), and better talent off the bench.

Give them a year to gel, and that's a potential 60-win team and East contender

[nate33]

I'm struggling to see the rationale for Horford to leave Atlanta and sign in DC of all places.

[thricethefun]

For those who want Whiteside he will require the max. Which I wouldn't necessarily oppose but it is a lot of money for a guy that hasn't proven much (yet). That being said I don't see Whiteside or Horford leaving Miami or Atlanta.

[nate33]

For those who want Whiteside he will require the max. Which I wouldn't necessarily oppose but it is a lot of money for a guy that hasn't proven much (yet). That being said I don't see Whiteside or Horford leaving Miami or Atlanta.

Yeah, Whiteside is unlikely, but not impossible. My rationale is that the 26-year-old would prefer to play the next 5 years alongside Wall (25), Beal (22), Porter (22), Oubre (19), and hopefully Jones (23). The alternative would be to play alongside Wade (34), Bosh (31 with 35,000 minutes under his belt), Dragic (29), and Winslow (19). You can add another year to all of those ages by next summer.

Much depends on how Miami and Washington fares this year. If they have roughly the same record, Whiteside could easily conclude that Washington (with Whiteside) would be a much better team going forward.

[J-Ves]

Nic Batum is another guy to consider in the event we strike out on KD. He's under 30, has been a good player for his career, and is balling out early on this season. You would move Porter to the 4 and start Batum at the 3(or vice versa?). Obviously he wouldn't be an ideal fit with the lack of bigs on the roster, but he is probably number 4 on FA targets after KD, Whiteside, and Horford.


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[queridiculo]

The Heat have a great structure in place to deal with guys like Whiteside, the Wizards laissez faire approach might turn a max contract for him into a disaster.

Might still be worth a shot, but I think if you want to sign Whiteside you can't just sit around waiting for Durant
You have to come out of the gate strong and make a max offer the second the agents are allowed to pick up the phone.

You sell him on playing alongside a young cast and being part of a team that can grow together for a title run.

If Gortat doesn't like being the second fiddle a sign and trade with the Heat might be an option giving the Wizards some more cap space to round out the roster.

Assuming that Nene is on board, he might factor into future plans as backup center and power forward.

Personally, I like the idea of Whiteside with his head screwed on right almost better than signing Durant.

Better roster balance, and certainly a better allocation of resources when you factor in the draft picks spent on Porter and Oubre.

[nate33]

The Heat have a great structure in place to deal with guys like Whiteside, the Wizards laissez faire approach might turn a max contract for him into a disaster.

Might still be worth a shot, but I think if you want to sign Whiteside you can't just sit around waiting for Durant
You have to come out of the gate strong and make a max offer the second the agents are allowed to pick up the phone.

You sell him on playing alongside a young cast and being part of a team that can grow together for a title run.

If Gortat doesn't like being the second fiddle a sign and trade with the Heat might be an option giving the Wizards some more cap space to round out the roster.

Assuming that Nene is on board, he might factor into future plans as backup center and power forward.

Personally, I like the idea of Whiteside with his head screwed on right almost better than signing Durant.

Better roster balance, and certainly a better allocation of resources when you factor in the draft picks spent on Porter and Oubre.

Lots of good points here. I really like the idea of a Whiteside/Gortat S&T. If we managed to quickly engineer that deal, we'd still have cap room for Durant, though we'd be sorely lacking in big man depth.

[MikeTheKid]

What's everyone's love affair with Jones when Donatas is better and shoots the 3-ball better as well. I'd hope to sign him instead. Not drafting Portis really sucks now