RealGM

Smitty731 wrote:http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/240005/Figuring-Out-Whats-Wrong-With-The-Wizards

Hey all!

I wrote a piece for the site on what's been wrong with the Wizards so far and what they can do to fix it.. I'd love to hear your thoughts!

Thanks!

Smitty

Smitty731 wrote:http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/240005/Figuring-Out-Whats-Wrong-With-The-Wizards

Hey all!

I wrote a piece for the site on what's been wrong with the Wizards so far and what they can do to fix it.. I'd love to hear your thoughts!

Thanks!

Smitty

TheSecretWeapon wrote:

Smitty731 wrote:http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/240005/Figuring-Out-Whats-Wrong-With-The-Wizards

Hey all!

I wrote a piece for the site on what's been wrong with the Wizards so far and what they can do to fix it.. I'd love to hear your thoughts!

Thanks!

Smitty

Do you really want an honest critique?

Dat2U wrote:I think it's something deeper than what we see on the surface. The team seems to have real chemistry issues at the moment. Wall & Beal & Gortat (supposedly their 3 best players) are playing far below their standards. Moving Nene to the bench has made the bench much stronger than in the past while the starters have fallen off a cliff with Hump. I think some of that is at play (Hump is always been an empty stats guy and meh defender while Nene was a very good defender & decent mid-post option) as well as Porter's struggles from 3 and as a defender (he's not a +defender yet)... so spacing isn't ideal and our D has slipped a couple of notches.. Also teams are now playing Wall to pass on drives and he's failed to adjust so far leading to a significant increase in TOs. Wall also confuses being a more aggressive scorer with taking more jump shots...instead of attacking the rim and finishing (he's been attacking the rim to pass instead). Beal has been even worse...especially defensively after locking down dudes in the playoffs last year. Gortat has struggled too and admitted to Polish press that he and Coach Wittman aren't even on speaking terms b/c Wittman called him out early this season. Gortat throughout career has been known to let off-the-court stuff effect his on-court performance and I think were seeing some of that here.

I think it's still a 45 win team if Wall gets back to all-star form and Beal & Gortat get back to form. I will say the team has little to no margin for error due to the lack of quality Fs on the roster. Porter will be fine and Dudley is a good rotation guy but we could use 2 good Fs on the roster.

Smitty731 wrote:

TheSecretWeapon wrote:

Smitty731 wrote:http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/240005/Figuring-Out-Whats-Wrong-With-The-Wizards

Hey all!

I wrote a piece for the site on what's been wrong with the Wizards so far and what they can do to fix it.. I'd love to hear your thoughts!

Thanks!

Smitty

Do you really want an honest critique?

I do. Any feedback is appreciated, as long as it is honest and not delivered in a jerk way, if that makes sense.

Thanks!

What is lacking is three-point shooting. Pierce finished the year at 39 percent from deep, while Porter is connecting on only 29 percent of his attempts.

The lack of consistent shooting from behind the arc (outside of Bradley Beal) has allowed teams to pack the paint against John Wall’s drives and help on Marcin Gortat and Nene inside.

Dudley has outperformed Humphries on the offensive end, while being only a slightly worse rebounder.

The Wizards also lost Kevin Seraphin who played a key role as a backup center last year. In only 15 minutes per game, Seraphin gave the team a quality backup center who could bang bodies inside, rebound and block some shots. He formed a solid backup twosome with Humphries for the 4 and 5 spots.

TheSecretWeapon wrote:...The real problem with the team is personnel. This is in part because of their desire to save money for Durant, and in part because the front office does a poor job of talent evaluation. ...

TheSecretWeapon wrote:

Smitty731 wrote:

TheSecretWeapon wrote:Do you really want an honest critique?

I do. Any feedback is appreciated, as long as it is honest and not delivered in a jerk way, if that makes sense.

Thanks!

What is lacking is three-point shooting. Pierce finished the year at 39 percent from deep, while Porter is connecting on only 29 percent of his attempts.

The lack of consistent shooting from behind the arc (outside of Bradley Beal) has allowed teams to pack the paint against John Wall’s drives and help on Marcin Gortat and Nene inside.

The Wizards are shooting .350 from 3pt range this season, basically league average. They're 13th in 3pt attempt rate at 29.6%. Last season, they shot 36% from 3pt range -- about the same as what they're shooting this year. But, they were 28th in 3pt attempt rate. The numbers don't support the conclusion that teams are able to pack the paint against the Wizards because they lack 3pt shooting. Their 3pt shooting has been decent.

You make a point about Gortat's decline in shooting percentage, but the data would seem to indicate the cause is randomness. His at-rim (inside 3 feet) attempt rate is HIGHER this season than last (.524 to .471). His attempts from 3-to-10 feet are about the same: .277 last season to .290 this season. His longer 2pt attempt rates are slightly lower. Gortat is actually getting MORE shots inside 3 feet than he did last year. He's just not making them at the same rate (.740 last year to .600 this year). Considering that he's a .720 career shooter on at-rim attempts, odds are that his conversion rate will improve. His current percentage would be the worst of his career by a wide margin.

Dudley has outperformed Humphries on the offensive end, while being only a slightly worse rebounder.

Dudely has indeed outperformed Humphries on offense, but Humphries is crushing him on the boards. Humphries this season has grabbed 12.2 rebounds per 100 team possessions, Dudley is at 7.7. And the Wizards rebound as a team MUCH better when Humphries is on the floor. (This is a fairly minor point -- Dudley's superior offensive efficiency is more important than Humphries' much better rebounding.)

The Wizards also lost Kevin Seraphin who played a key role as a backup center last year. In only 15 minutes per game, Seraphin gave the team a quality backup center who could bang bodies inside, rebound and block some shots. He formed a solid backup twosome with Humphries for the 4 and 5 spots.

No. Seraphin has been (and was last season) one of the league's worst backup centers. He was terrible last year and the Wizards got dominated when he was in the game. Seraphin was reputed to be a good scorer, but he was inefficient (despite a decent fg%) because of rampant turnovers and an inability to get to the FT line. His rebounding was subpar for a center, and he fouled constantly. The pairing of Seraphin and Humphries was a horror show for the Wizards. The team was -12.9 points per 100 possessions when the two were on the floor together last season. And they were on the floor together for approximately 975 possessions.

The part about the team "sacrificing defense" is debatable. I don't think they made a decision to be a little worse on defense for the sake of the offense, and I don't think that's a real tradeoff anyway. But, they are worse on defense so far this year, so it's kind of an academic point.

The "not rebounding quite as well" claim seems overstated. On the defensive glass, they ARE down from 4th in dreb% to 12th, but the change in real terms is miniscule -- from 77.3% to 76.9% (0.4%). The difference is bigger on the offensive glass, but that doesn't tie into the commentary about the defense. Their defensive problems this year are not due to poor rebounding.

Your point about rim protection is not supported by the numbers. Opponent at-rim attempts are DOWN slightly (25.9% of fga last season to 22.9% so far this year). At-rim conversion rate is up slightly this year (by .009), but the difference is so small that "about the same" is the better way of describing it. So, rim protection isn't a major driver of their defensive decline. The problem? Opponents are shooting slightly more threes (.294 of FGA to .275) at a MUCH better percentage: .399 to .349.

On offense, your suggestion that they consistently got high percentage at-rim attempts because of Nene and Gortat is half right -- Gortat had a very high conversion rate, but Nene did not. This year, Nene is currently converting at a high rate (80%) (and Porter is even higher -- 84%). Their at-rim attempts are down, but most of those shots have been shifted to the 3pt line -- their attempts are down from 0-3 feet, 10-16 feet and 16+ feet. They're up slightly from 3-10 feet, and way up from the 3pt line. Their real problem area is the conversion rate on at-rim attempts; and much of that appears to be Gortat missing at a much higher rate than he ever has during his career.

They're turning the ball over a bit more, but we're talking a difference of 1 turnover per 100 possessions. Their offensive rebounding is down. But, their FTA are up.

Your last two paragraphs are a bit better. I've been writing since before the season that playing fast was a bad goal. Pace and efficiency don't correlate. They should play at a pace where the players feel comfortable and can be efficient.

That said, I don't think any of the options you offer really fix much of what's actually wrong with them. Dudley isn't a PF, which is something folks will learn if he's in the starting lineup. Nene can't play extended minutes because of injuries (he has an injured calf already, and he's been coming off the bench playing fewer minutes). Starting him also leaves them with a significant hole at backup center. Humprhies isn't much of an option because (while his personal production isn't bad) he's sooooo slow he may reduce the production of his teammates.

I'm personally in favor of them slowing down a bit to emphasize valuing possessions and getting good shots. Push the ball up the floor to see if they can get a good shot quickly, but then run the offense and let that action create good shots. There's absolutely no reason to play fast for the sake of playing fast (a point you make). My analysis of the team the past few seasons is they were slightly better in slower-paced games.

The real problem with the team is personnel. This is in part because of their desire to save money for Durant, and in part because the front office does a poor job of talent evaluation. Odds are that Wall and Gortat will return to previously established performance levels, and they'll end up right around where I projected them to be -- 41-44 wins. But, they have a real problem at PF. They'll have to figure out how to get production from Humphries/Dudley/Gooden/Nene. Major need for them, though.

One last point -- schedule. Yes, the Wiz have played a tougher schedule so far, but that doesn't fully explain their poor play. Last season, they were +0.72 points per game; their opponents were collectively -0.55 points per game. This year, Wiz opponents are a collective +1.26 points per game, but they're -5.93.