nate33 wrote:keynote wrote:I don't get this notion of not wanting to pay a #2 the max, or assuming that the only way to build a contender is to "save" your max slot for a "true #1." How many #2s take sub-max deals? Most #2s on contenders get max money. And, multiple teams have become contenders by retaining a #2 and getting their #1 guy later.
The only #2s on contenders who wouldn't getting max money on the open market that I can think are Holiday and Murray.
So, as frustrating as Beal is, if we think he's a #2, we should keep him. Is he any worse than Paul Pierce was pre-KG/Ray Allen? Or Devin Booker before CP3 came along? Paul Pierce and Antoine Walker were known as talented but low-IQ players. Booker was a shot-jacker and stat padder who did stupid stuff like run up the score to get to 70.
If you have a star, you do what you can to keep him. Then, you look for opportunities to add another piece. You find a distressed star; you get lucky in the draft; etc. But it's not as if we'd be overpaying to keep a true #2.
Now, if the theory is that Beal has fallen off to the point where he can't even be a #2. Let's say he's injured, or the league rules have relegated him to Tobias Harris-level, or he's got long COVID. If he's entered the Blake Griffin in Detroit stage of his career, then that's a different story. But if we project him to be a legit #2, then we keep him.
Let's make a distinction between "max" and "supermax". How many #2 options are getting paid 35% of the cap? Most #2 options are younger and are either on their first post rookie contract paying them 25% of the cap, or they are on their second post-rookie contract earning 30%. They are also being paid under the plausible assumption that they haven't yet peaked. Beal is eligible for 35% and he is no longer getting better. The only people making that much coin are:
Curry
Wall
Westbrook
Harden
Lebron
Durant
Giannis
Paul George
Lillard
Kawhi
Among those guys, Curry, Harden, Lebron, Durant, Giannis and Kawhi are MVP-caliber guys who deserve it.
Wall and Westbrook are clearly bad signings who didn't deserve the supermax.
I get that the supermax = more money. But the supermax is also fairly new. How many examples do we have of supermax-eligible stars getting max-level $, but not supermax-level $? The players of that age either settled into a beta role earlier in their career (like PG), or they've never reached the statistical heights or earned the accolades Beal has (the lower tier you've described below).
We all hope that Shep can get Beal to sign for more than the max, but less than the absolute supermax. I'm not sure whether that's ever been successfully pulled off, though.
Paul George and Damian Lillard are somewhere in between. The contracts feel like mild overpays, but at least the teams are somewhat relevant.
At best Beal could be considered in the Paul George/Damian Lillard tier, but I think that's overly generous. He isn't as good as those guys and Washington hasn't even sniffed the level of success of Portland and LA.
I'd certainly argue that the Beal of the last two years was equivalent to PG in Indiana. PG hasn't had to be a #1 since then, so it's hard to tell. When Beal had another all-star in his prime on the team, he had modest playoff success as well.
It's hard to put Beal above Lillard, agreed. Lillard's rosters haven't been great, yet he made more noise that Beal + Wall.
Still, on the balance, I would say that Beal on the supermax -- assuming nothing's wrong with his body, and that this slump is attributable to rust + adjusting to a new roster & new system -- would feel like a PG/Lillard-level overpay. Not an ideal value, but still arguably better than starting over from scratch, and hoping to draft the next Beal/PG/Lillard.
A more honest evaluation of Beal puts him in the tier of Gordon Hayward, CJ McCollum, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton or Demarr Derozan (of last year, that is). Those guys are good but they're not supermax players who can carry a team. Demarr is paid $26M, McCollum $30M, Jrue, $30M, Middleton, $35M, and Hayward $30M.
I think the Beal of this season certainly fits in this tier. If that's how he projects going forward, then he's not really a traditional second star. Kawhi had Middleton *and* Jrue; the others aren't good enough to be the second best player on a championship team. If Beal projects to be a Hayward-level player or worse for the rest of his career, then he has declined, and we'd have to figure something else out. Otherwise, we'd be banking on a late-year leap like DeRozan is currently having.
Always remember, my friend: the world will change again. And you may have to come back through everywhere you've been.
