Bradley Beal - Part III

[Illmatic12]

It's hard to get a consensus ,but it really seems that the media is split down the middle on this. Between Beal, Kemba, Klay even Ben Simmons (huge game last night) I think there will be a really close race for that 6th guard spot and the implications are massive for all the teams of those players. It's one of the most interesting storylines to watch for in-between the end of the season and free agency.

The 5th and 6th spots are between Westbrook, Beal, Simmons, Klay and Kemba.

I understand that winning matters, but so do teammates. Ben Simmons plays alongside Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris! I think those teammates have something to do with the winning records. Likewise for Klay Thompson who plays alongside 2 of the best 5 players in the league. Blaming Beal for not delivering as many victories as those guys doesn't seem fair to me.

I can grudging live with Westbrook getting the 5th slot because OKC isn't THAT loaded outside of Paul George.

I think the 6th spot should come down to Beal or Kemba. Both guys are carrying terrible rosters with impressive numbers. And lately, Beal has been significantly outperforming Kemba, and their team records are almost the same.

I didn’t discuss the 5th spot because let’s be real, we know they’ll give it to Westbrook since he is averaging a triple double still. History shows that the voters usually don’t look at efficiency or advanced numbers.

Kemba was an All-Star starter whereas Beal barely got any love, and a lot of those same people will be voting for this. I have a feeling Kemba may edge Brad out simply bc he made more noise earlier in the season when his team was in the playoff hunt.

[DCZards]

Check out this reaction by Beal to a Denver fan telling him he sucks. C’mon, how can you not like this kid or not want to make him the face of your franchise?

https://www.bulletsforever.com/platform/amp/2019/4/4/18295360/bradley-beal-reaction-denver-nuggets-fan-hecklers

[nate33]

Originally posted in the draft thread, but probably belongs here:

People love to write off draft classes early but, almost always, each draft class produces some solid players. Zion is obvious, but who can be this years Giannis or this years Kawhi? Who can be this years Gilbert Arenas or Nikola Jokic? It's easy to focus on what a player doesn't do well, but which players have the talent and skill to succeed? The NBA is a star driven league. I'd rather swing for the fences on a player that has the potential to be a great scorer or great defensive player, than settle for a "solid player."

As far as Beal being a ball dominant shooting guard, I'd have to disagree. Beal can play both on ball and off ball. He's ball dominant now because we have no one else that can create, but if we get the second pick and draft Morant, it's crazy to think that Beal would remain as ball dominant as he was. That kind of offense is inherently inefficient. I'd love to see an offense where Beal comes off-screens.

I dunno.

Beal has always looked like a great shooter, but he's never really been that great of a spot up shooter. He's not JJ Redick, or Klay Thompson or even Buddy Held. What Beal does way better than those guys is get to the rim off the bounce, and he finishes at the rim at an elite level. And he's getting better and better as a passer off the pick-and-roll.

Here is how Beal compares to other guards in the league on shots within 5 feet of the basket:


He gets to the rim more often then everyone but Harden, Simmons and Westbrook, and he's a higher percentage shooter than 47 of the top 50 guards in attempts at the rim. Only Bledsoe and Derozan shoot better, and just barely. (Technically, Klay does too, but on just one-third the number of attempts as Beal.)

I really think one of the reasons Beal has hit a new plateau this year as a scorer is that he is the primary ball handler much more often. To be fair, he wasn't that good at handling the ball 2 years ago and he needed Wall to help him thrive. But now, he's better on the ball than off and he no longer needs a PG to set him up.

[nate33]

Originally posted in the draft thread, but probably belongs here:



Conversely, here is how Beal compares to the rest of the league on open 3's (nearest defender 4-6 feet):



Of the 22 guys with the most attempts (22 is what I could fit in my screen capture app), Beal ranks 15th in 3P%. He's one of the least efficient spot up shooters among those who get up a lot of shots.

[nate33]

Originally posted in draft thread, but probably belongs here:


Beal is just as mediocre in catch and shoots. He ranks 36th in number of attempts. And among those in the top 50 of catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts, Beal ranks 34th, hitting just 36.6% of his shots.

For comparison, Buddy Hield hits 46.3% of his catch-and-shoots, and Danny Green hits 47.2%. And both get up more shots.

[nate33]

Originally posted in draft thread, but probably belongs here:


I should probably move this stuff to the Beal thread, but I've been finding some interesting information at nba.com/stats on Beal's excellence as a lead ball handler. In addition to the shots at the rim point I made above, Beal is also excelling as a ball handler in the pick and roll.

Beal has run 389 pick-and-roll plays, ranking him 17th in total volume. This season, there are 40 players who have run at least 250 pick-and-rolls as the lead ball handler. Of those 40 players, only 6 of them run it with a higher eFG%: Lillard, Curry, Lebron, Kyrie, Harden and Bledsoe.

It's not all good news though. Beal's pick-and-rolls are a bit more turnover prone. His turnover percentage is 15.4% while most of the better players keep it in the 10-12% range. Overall, Beal ranks 17th among the top 40 pick-and-roll ball handlers in points per possession.

[Illmatic12]

All-NBA seems unlikely for Beal now.

Kemba Walker named Player of the Week, and perfect timing as All-NBA ballots came out last week and many of the media voters will be filling their ballots right around now

Read on Twitter

If Beal isn't named All-NBA then that delays the discussion about whether he will commit to the supermax, but also allows 12 more months to clarify the direction of a franchise.

[Kanyewest]

Originally posted in the draft thread, but probably belongs here:



Conversely, here is how Beal compares to the rest of the league on open 3's (nearest defender 4-6 feet):

Spoiler:

Of the 22 guys with the most attempts (22 is what I could fit in my screen capture app), Beal ranks 15th in 3P%. He's one of the least efficient spot up shooters among those who get up a lot of shots.

Beal was a much better spot up shooter in the past though.

2016-17- 39.8%
2015-16- 37.8%
2014-15- 41.2%
2013-14- 39.5%

But yeah not so much in the last two seasons
2018-19- 34%
2017-18-33.2%

[nate33]

All-NBA seems unlikely for Beal now.

Kemba Walker named Player of the Week, and perfect timing as All-NBA ballots came out last week and many of the media voters will be filling their ballots right around now

Read on Twitter

If Beal isn't named All-NBA then that delays the discussion about whether he will commit to the supermax, but also allows 12 more months to clarify the direction of a franchise.

Yup. Ultimately, this is good news.

I don't want Beal to get the supermax based on one year of peak production. Let's at least see him do it 2 years in a row. Also, if he gets the contract a year from now, it reduces the possibility he'll get injured before his raise kicks in.

[prime1time]

Watching the NBA finals, show' the next step for Beals offensive game. The ability to draw ft's. It's an art. Beal adds that to his game, no reason why he can't be a 28-30 ppg scorer next year.

[DCZards]

My main man Bradley Beal won the NBA Community Assist Award at the NBA awards program last night. The award was presented to him by his backcourt mate John Wall, who won the award in 2016.

Check out BB's acceptance speech:

https://www.nba.com/wizards/bradley-beal-nba-community-assist-award

[nate33]

My main man Bradley Beal won the NBA Community Assist Award at the NBA awards program last night. The award was presented to him by his backcourt mate John Wall, who won the award in 2016.

Check out BB's acceptance speech:

https://www.nba.com/wizards/bradley-beal-nba-community-assist-award

That seals it. Beal is my favorite Wizard of all time. I really love the guy. I love the way he plays and I love the way he handles himself on and off the court.

[Jamaaliver]

Now Is the Time for Bradley Beal to Ask Out of Washington

The Wizards guard is taking a wait-and-see approach to his future in D.C. But becoming the next star to force his way out of town is what’s best for Beal and the franchise

Beal recently went on record saying that he wants to evaluate whomever replaces Ernie Grunfeld, the deposed team president who somehow survived 16 seasons while never putting together a team that won more than 50 games. And that he also wants to see what will happen with Washington in free agency, despite the Wizards’ not having the cap space to sign any players who will dramatically alter their immediate outlook.

Beal, whose current deal ends after the 2020-21 season, has expressed interest in the three-year, $111 million extension offer from Washington that everyone seems to think is coming.

Read on Twitter

[T]he most distressing thing about the Wizards: They’ve been trying to compete this whole time. If Beal agrees to an extension and the Wizards are unable to pawn off Wall on another team, there will be a reckoning ahead' it’s hard to see how things will get better.

If Beal wants out, now is the time to say it. Washington can maximize his return with time left on his contract, and all the movement around the league will quickly wash away any potential PR hit. The Wizards need a merciful release from the treadmill of mediocrity, and Beal’s staying put would keep the franchise firmly on it. For the best interest of both parties, it’s time for a change in Washington.

The Ringer

[pcbothwel]

Now Is the Time for Bradley Beal to Ask Out of Washington

The Wizards guard is taking a wait-and-see approach to his future in D.C. But becoming the next star to force his way out of town is what’s best for Beal and the franchise

Beal recently went on record saying that he wants to evaluate whomever replaces Ernie Grunfeld, the deposed team president who somehow survived 16 seasons while never putting together a team that won more than 50 games. And that he also wants to see what will happen with Washington in free agency, despite the Wizards’ not having the cap space to sign any players who will dramatically alter their immediate outlook.

Beal, whose current deal ends after the 2020-21 season, has expressed interest in the three-year, $111 million extension offer from Washington that everyone seems to think is coming.

Read on Twitter

[T]he most distressing thing about the Wizards: They’ve been trying to compete this whole time.If Beal agrees to an extension and the Wizards are unable to pawn off Wall on another team, there will be a reckoning ahead' it’s hard to see how things will get better.

If Beal wants out, now is the time to say it. Washington can maximize his return with time left on his contract, and all the movement around the league will quickly wash away any potential PR hit. The Wizards need a merciful release from the treadmill of mediocrity, and Beal’s staying put would keep the franchise firmly on it. For the best interest of both parties, it’s time for a change in Washington.

The Ringer

Im tired of this narrative. Its so lazy. Beal will have the same value in 12 months as he does now, but writers are just fishing for stories.
Its no different than the pick of Rui. Sure, there are plenty of reasons to not love him as a prospect. But It gets tiresome to hear the constant hating of the pick based on Ted not hiring a GM. They act like Tommy hasn’t been basically a Co-GM for like half a decade and been in the league for years.
“How could you not take Cam Reddish?”… Please. They guys are clueless.

I also ask the board. Lets play this out a little.

1) Beal continues to be a AS/All-NBA caliber player
2) Sato and Bryant are both brought back on 3 year deals. Sato continues to be Sato and Bryant improves to become a top 10-12 Center (Think Vucevic…or Valanciunas with a 3pt shot)
3) Brown Jr settles in as a Satoransky disciple and takes the reigns from him in 2 years. A Jack of all trades.
4) Rui becomes Jamison re-incarnated, but better in transition and not played out of position. That’s an 18 & 8 player on above average efficiency
5) Wall comes back and looks re-energized and in shape. He is a diminished/altered version of himself, but can settle into a lower usage due to the above reasons.

We then top that off with another top 12-15 pick in next years draft. I actually think that team is a 4-5 seed. Obviously, a lot depends on Brown and Rui.... Because it could be:

Brown looks eerily similar to Iggy to me. Remember, Iggy was a full two years older than Brown as a rookie.
And Rui easily meets the Jamison threshold, but if his defense improves and really shoot the 3… he might become Kwahi Leonard/ Prime Melo offensively, and passable on defense. That’s a multiple time AS.... and I emphasize offense. NO ONE is Kawahi on defense

[DCZards]

Im tired of this narrative. Its so lazy. Beal will have the same value in 12 months as he does now, but writers are just fishing for stories.
Its no different than the pick of Rui. Sure, there are plenty of reasons to not love him as a prospect. But It gets tiresome to hear the constant hating of the pick based on Ted not hiring a GM. They act like Tommy hasn’t been basically a Co-GM for like half a decade and been in the league for years.
“How could you not take Cam Reddish?”… Please. They guys are clueless.

I also ask the board. Lets play this out a little.

1) Beal continues to be a AS/All-NBA caliber player
2) Sato and Bryant are both brought back on 3 year deals. Sato continues to be Sato and Bryant improves to become a top 10-12 Center (Think Vucevic…or Valanciunas with a 3pt shot)
3) Brown Jr settles in as a Satoransky disciple and takes the reigns from him in 2 years. A Jack of all trades.
4) Rui becomes Jamison re-incarnated, but better in transition and not played out of position. That’s an 18 & 8 player on above average efficiency
5) Wall comes back and looks re-energized and in shape. He is a diminished/altered version of himself, but can settle into a lower usage due to the above reasons.

We then top that off with another top 12-15 pick in next years draft. I actually think that team is a 4-5 seed. Obviously, a lot depends on Brown and Rui.... Because it could be:

Brown looks eerily similar to Iggy to me. Remember, Iggy was a full two years older than Brown as a rookie.
And Rui easily meets the Jamison threshold, but if his defense improves and really shoot the 3… he might become Kwahi Leonard/ Prime Melo offensively, and passable on defense. That’s a multiple time AS.... and I emphasize offense. NO ONE is Kawahi on defense

Hey, don't forget about Schofield. Tough, strong, smart, competitive. Good long range shooter.

The new Admiral is gonna have a positive impact on both ends of the court.

[nate33]

Now Is the Time for Bradley Beal to Ask Out of Washington

The Wizards guard is taking a wait-and-see approach to his future in D.C. But becoming the next star to force his way out of town is what’s best for Beal and the franchise

Beal recently went on record saying that he wants to evaluate whomever replaces Ernie Grunfeld, the deposed team president who somehow survived 16 seasons while never putting together a team that won more than 50 games. And that he also wants to see what will happen with Washington in free agency, despite the Wizards’ not having the cap space to sign any players who will dramatically alter their immediate outlook.

Beal, whose current deal ends after the 2020-21 season, has expressed interest in the three-year, $111 million extension offer from Washington that everyone seems to think is coming.

Read on Twitter

[T]he most distressing thing about the Wizards: They’ve been trying to compete this whole time.If Beal agrees to an extension and the Wizards are unable to pawn off Wall on another team, there will be a reckoning ahead' it’s hard to see how things will get better.

If Beal wants out, now is the time to say it. Washington can maximize his return with time left on his contract, and all the movement around the league will quickly wash away any potential PR hit. The Wizards need a merciful release from the treadmill of mediocrity, and Beal’s staying put would keep the franchise firmly on it. For the best interest of both parties, it’s time for a change in Washington.

The Ringer

These arguments have been hashed over and over again for months. There are several issues about a Beal trade that this article and other similar articles consistently overlook:

1. Tanking doesn't really work, particularly with the new lottery odds. Three of the top 4 picks went to the 7th, 8th and 11th worst teams. It doesn't help the rebuilding process all that much to dump Beal and go from a 35-win team to a 22-win team.

2. The cap difficulties are overstated. Yes, the Wizards are going to suck this year with Wall, Mahinmi and Howard on the books, but next year, Mahinmi and Howard come off and Wall returns to being at least a starting-caliber player, if not still a star (meaning we won't have to pay additional money for another PG). The Wizards will have a fair amount of cap flexibility that summer to add a good free agent or buy a pick. The year after that, Beal will get a big extension, but by then, there will only be 2 years left on Wall's contract. The team could pay the luxtax for two years in a row and not have to pay a repeater tax. Or they could move Wall. Wall, playing at 90% of his former self, with only 2 years left on his deal, is definitely movable.

3. Beal is 25. He has 6 or 7 prime years in front of him. It's not like he's already 30.

4. Finally, and most importantly, teams rarely get fair value when trading an All-NBA caliber player. If the Wizards could get the kind of package New Orleans got for Davis, then, sure, trading Beal would make sense. But such a package is unlikely to be forthcoming because teams looking to add Bradley Beal are in win-now mode, which means they are likely to lack high picks and young assets worth Beal. Bradley Beal, with 6 or 7 prime years ahead of him, is likely to be way more valuable than whatever the Wizards could get back in a Beal trade.

5. It all comes down to Bradley Beal and his decision in 2021. If he will resign, then I seriously doubt any trade package will help the team in the long run more so than keeping Beal helps the team. I would refrain from trading him unless we got a godfather package. If Beal is likely to depart, then obviously, trading him for something is better than letting him walk.

[payitforward]

Im tired of this narrative. Its so lazy. Beal will have the same value in 12 months as he does now, but writers are just fishing for stories.
Its no different than the pick of Rui. Sure, there are plenty of reasons to not love him as a prospect. But It gets tiresome to hear the constant hating of the pick based on Ted not hiring a GM. They act like Tommy hasn’t been basically a Co-GM for like half a decade and been in the league for years.
“How could you not take Cam Reddish?”… Please. They guys are clueless.

I also ask the board. Lets play this out a little.

1) Beal continues to be a AS/All-NBA caliber player
2) Sato and Bryant are both brought back on 3 year deals. Sato continues to be Sato and Bryant improves to become a top 10-12 Center (Think Vucevic…or Valanciunas with a 3pt shot)
3) Brown Jr settles in as a Satoransky disciple and takes the reigns from him in 2 years. A Jack of all trades.
4) Rui becomes Jamison re-incarnated, but better in transition and not played out of position. That’s an 18 & 8 player on above average efficiency
5) Wall comes back and looks re-energized and in shape. He is a diminished/altered version of himself, but can settle into a lower usage due to the above reasons.

We then top that off with another top 12-15 pick in next years draft. I actually think that team is a 4-5 seed. Obviously, a lot depends on Brown and Rui.... Because it could be:

Brown looks eerily similar to Iggy to me. Remember, Iggy was a full two years older than Brown as a rookie.
And Rui easily meets the Jamison threshold, but if his defense improves and really shoot the 3… he might become Kwahi Leonard/ Prime Melo offensively, and passable on defense. That’s a multiple time AS.... and I emphasize offense. NO ONE is Kawahi on defense

Hey, don't forget about Schofield. Tough, strong, smart, competitive. Good long range shooter.

The new Admiral is gonna have a positive impact on both ends of the court.

Whoa, Zards! You left out the middle of the court. He'll have impact there as well. Plus you left out Justin Robinson; I'm starting to really like this kid a lot.

Plus... & this is really getting to me: you -- & everybody -- left out Garrison the Pale. Which I blame on Dat. I mean... just b/c a chair dunked on him. Come on! It was only one time!

[nate33]

Okay say we approach Beal with an extension and he says: “I want to re-up here, but want the opportunity to earn a SuperMax deal. I have faith in my game and if I play at that level the team will have success with me leading it”. Knowing that under the rules of a supermax Beal cannot be traded for a year after that deal.

What should the team’s response be?

“Ok, bye” ...?

I disagree with the notion that this team has proven faithless. The team may have betrayed fans but they have been overly loyal to their players. Consistently rewarding past performance regardless of how it projects into the future. We just recently were still paying Martell Webster. This team has also accommodated players who hoped to play elsewhere. Finding trades that were not egregious. Multiple past trades have found us with guys who wanted to play elsewhere and never suited up for us. In some cases we simply cut them early and took the hit.

Players who have shown loyalty here earn too large contracts. Otto, John, being the most recent example. That is what we complain about most. That we reward loyalty as if it were equivalent to all star level play.

But Beal for all that he is not a superstar is the consummate team player. An all star teammate. He is the template for what every team needs from its 2-guard and he can play next to any kind of player in the league.
He has earned whatever reward a player can get if they haven’t yet carried their team to a championship. If the market says that’s a supermax then that’s what he deserves.

Seems to me if Beal in particular says he wants to ink here, you take him at his word. And if he chooses to go elsewhere you find a sign and trade that works for him and you as well. We can pay him more than any other team. For longer. Other teams will still bid on Brad in a SuperMax deal after he plays here for a year.

Doc brought this up in the Sato traded thread. The Wizards are trying to get Beal to sign an extension, but, presumably, Beal wants another shot at making an All-NBA team and earning a supermax. So Beal's resistance to signing an extension isn't necessarily an indication that he is looking to bolt in 2021.

I wonder if they can offer him an extension with incentives? Bonuses of up to 15% are permitted by the CBA, but I don't understand exactly how it would come into play when dealing with Beal's unique circumstance. Technically, Beal can't be paid more than a 30% max because he hasn't yet met the supermax criteria. Can we structure an extension that gives him 30% raises, but if he meets the supermax criteria, it bumps to 35%?

Larry Coons FAQ reads:

Unlikely bonuses in any season are limited to 15% of the player's regular salary in that season. In the first season of a contract the base salary, likely bonuses and unlikely bonuses must all fit within the salary cap or exception.

Beal would be resigned with Bird Rights. Bird Rights give us the right to sign him up to the max. But do they give us the right to offer an extension exceeding the max if he meets the supermax criteria? I don't know.

[payitforward]

How about a financial analysis? If Beal signs an extension this year, how much extra does he earn over his current contract.

If he turns down the extension, bets on his qualifying for a supermax, & does qualify -- when would that kick in & how much would it earn him over what he'd earn via the extension on the table now?

The financial risk/reward scenarios surely must have major impact on any decisons he makes.

[Jamaaliver]

From Washington vice president of basketball operations Tommy Sheppard:

"Not at all," Sheppard told The Athletic in regard to trading Beal. "It's never crossed our mind. Bradley is somebody we're building around. He's been involved with everything we're doing in the draft, free agency. We need his opinion. We want this team to be a reflection of what he is all about."

Bleacher Report