You've seen enough: To Beal or not to Beal? (Poll)

[Dark Faze]

That.

Is the question.

[ozthegap]

That.

Is the question.

Beal but no where near the max. $15 mil?

[nate33]

No one on this board would go with #1. Only EG would do something that foolish.

It's premature to go with #4 before knowing what the market value is for him. If the best offer is only $12M or so, why would you let him walk?

So really it boils down to #2 or #3. Or to put it simply: is there a price too high to match for Beal? And if so, what is it?

[fishercob]

Match anything. With the cap going up to $108M next year, be ready to trade him between 12/15 and the deadline. He can bring back assets, even if on a max deal.

[ozthegap]

No one on this board would go with #1. Only EG would do something that foolish.

It's premature to go with #4 before knowing what the market value is for him. If the best offer is only $12M or so, why would you let him walk?

So really it boils down to #2 or #3. Or to put it simply: is there a price too high to match for Beal? And if so, what is it?

What are 1,2,3,4?

[dobrojim]

Can't simply match. Have to weigh options. He's still only 22 but so far, outside of small sample
size outstanding playoff stats and much as we wish it were not true although some refuse to acknowledge it,
he's been pretty ordinary and replaceable.

[Ruzious]

Even for the teams that like him a lot, because of his injuries - they're not going to offer even close to the max, imo. Then it comes down to - Who are the Wiz negotiating against? It better not be against themselves.

[TGW]

The Wiz will absolutely negotiate against themselves in this scenario. I expect Beal to be signed before free agency starts.

[fishercob]

Even for the teams that like him a lot, because of his injuries - they're not going to offer even close to the max, imo. Then it comes down to - Who are the Wiz negotiating against? It better not be against themselves.

um...

Washington Wizards President Ernie Grunfeld announced today that the team has signed guard Eric Maynor.

[Ruzious]

Even for the teams that like him a lot, because of his injuries - they're not going to offer even close to the max, imo. Then it comes down to - Who are the Wiz negotiating against? It better not be against themselves.

um...

Washington Wizards President Ernie Grunfeld announced today that the team has signed guard Eric Maynor.

Yup. If I remember correctly, he signed Maynor very early in free agency - paying about double what some better free agent PGs got. He could not wait to bleep himself.

[ozthegap]

The Wiz will absolutely negotiate against themselves in this scenario. I expect Beal to be signed before free agency starts.

They already said they will try to sign outside free agents first and then sign beal after all other signings are done.

[Dark Faze]

I don't think you can afford to NOT offer a max contract for Beal if you're a team like Philadelphia who ends up drafting another top 3 frontcourt player in the off-season.

[pcbothwel]

What I said in the Trade Thread

I understand the frustration with Beal because I've had it with him as well. But even the pure analytics folks say next year is really the pivotal year. He doesnt need to be the next great SG, but simply the next Khris Middleton or Klay Thompson. Both of whom struggled until they broke out in their 3rd year at 23.

Again, If we assume that Beal takes the next leap as a SG, Otto continues his improvements (though not as pronounced), We replace Gortat with Whiteside, and we add Satoransky... Then I think that is a strong team in the East. This also includes no real improvement from Wall. He would simply improve by taking less shots with Satoransky and an improved Beal/Otto.

As I've said before with Beal. There are 4 general outcomes with him going foward as a player.
1) He takes big leap and becomes top tier SG.
2) He takes gradual leap each of the next 2 years and becomes Wes Mathews/Kris Middleton (AS conversation, but not elite).
3) He becomes marginally better, but not note worthy and essentially becomes role player
4) He makes no improvement and has continuing injuries.

If he gets a 4-year max (4/96M), then he is a positive asset in scenarios 1 and 2, somewhat neutral asset in scenario 3, and a negative asset in scenario 4. If we take out the two extremes (Scenarios 1 & 4), then our real downside appears to be a player that would have to be dumped on one of the many losers in the 2017 FA period. I can live with that, but I can't watch us let him walk and feel the way Detroit or Utah did about letting Middleton and Mathews go.

Again, It is important to note that over the last 3 years he is taking more shots at the basket:
13/14: 15%
14/15: 21%
15/16: 23%

More shots from 3:
13/14: 30%
14/15: 30%
15/16: 34%

And less long 2's (16 < 3):
13/14: 36%
14/15: 28%
15/16: 18%

That is a great trend. And while I worry defensively, he's not completely lost. And defense is one of those skill sets that takes a mix of "Want to" as well as savvy. He has the body type to defend Guards in this day and age. Curry was a terrible defender at 22, a mediocre/below average one at 24, and a great one at 26...

Again, Want to and savvy

[thricethefun]

Not matching a contract for Beal would be throwing away one of our few assets. He may not live up to the contract but he will be an asset and we can't afford to lose assets at this point.

[Dark Faze]

Not matching a contract for Beal would be throwing away one of our few assets. He may not live up to the contract but he will be an asset and we can't afford to lose assets at this point.

I was with your mindset not long ago, but I'm not maxing him at this point. You can ask New Orleans fans how much of an asset Eric Gordon is to them at this point.

I'd strongly lean towards a sign and trade with Philly for a first rounder. Replace Brad with a guy like Denzel Valentine. Maybe something comes from it. If not, more cap space to go after someone else down the road.

I don't think Brad will be moveable if we max him.

[nate33]

Not matching a contract for Beal would be throwing away one of our few assets. He may not live up to the contract but he will be an asset and we can't afford to lose assets at this point.

I was with your mindset not long ago, but I'm not maxing him at this point. You can ask New Orleans fans how much of an asset Eric Gordon is to them at this point.

I'd strongly lean towards a sign and trade with Philly for a first rounder. Replace Brad with a guy like Denzel Valentine. Maybe something comes from it. If not, more cap space to go after someone else down the road.

I don't think Brad will be moveable if we max him.

If he won't be moveable after maxing, what makes you think he can be traded to Philly for a first?

[nate33]

I'd offer him $16M a year at the start of free agency. I'd tell him that's my best offer if he signs it now, but it's off the table if he doesn't sign immediately. If Beal doesn't take that offer, I'd match any other offer, whether higher or lower. Maybe the best offer on the table is just $14M a year and Beal loses out by being greedy at the start of free agency.

[nate33]

No one on this board would go with #1. Only EG would do something that foolish.

It's premature to go with #4 before knowing what the market value is for him. If the best offer is only $12M or so, why would you let him walk?

So really it boils down to #2 or #3. Or to put it simply: is there a price too high to match for Beal? And if so, what is it?

What are 1,2,3,4?

In order of the poll questions.

[ozthegap]

No one on this board would go with #1. Only EG would do something that foolish.

It's premature to go with #4 before knowing what the market value is for him. If the best offer is only $12M or so, why would you let him walk?

So really it boils down to #2 or #3. Or to put it simply: is there a price too high to match for Beal? And if so, what is it?

What are 1,2,3,4?

Oh I can't see the poll options on the phone app.

[Rafael122]

If Washington's football team's GM ran this team, he'd basically let Beal search for a max offer and then decide to match or not. Problem is we don't get a pick out of it if we lost him, but we can do a sign and trade. I wouldn't blink if the deal started at $15 mil per. But...16...17...18, you start having second thoughts. The fact that Beal publicly came out and said he'll need to have his minutes monitored for the rest of his career hurts his negotiating power.