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So here’s the conundrum. With Wall, Beal & Porter playing relatively well we have a nice core of 3 young quality players. Wall is just entering his prime at 26 and now healthy. Beal & Porter at 23 are still likely a year or two away from their primes. Porter has become a rock solid top 10ish SF, while Beal looks to be coming out of a season beginning slump to potentially put up his best season to date. Gortat has been solid but at 32 his future is right at this moment and his defense, while still decent is beginning to slip a bit.

Sadly, outside of these four the cupboard is nearly bare. Which is astonishing considering all the draft picks we’ve had the last 5 seasons and the $120 million Grunfeld spent this offseason in attempting to construct a bench.

Satoransky & Oubre offer some hope due to their physical tools but both seem a long way from contributing. Neither has a reliable shot and despite the athletic ability neither has shown the capability of defending very well at this stage. Satoransky only gets minutes because Trey Burke has been unplayable at PG while Oubre doesn’t even have a backup at his position.

We can have hope for our $64 million dollar man in Mahinmi but the fact is he’s a 30 yr old journeyman and a backup C who cashed in after one solid season in Indiana. If he likely reverts to his career numbers, we’ve got ourselves an albatross contract. I won’t even get into our other two big money signings this offseason, Andrew Nicholson & Jason Smith.

So we find ourselves with the look of a solid lottery team, but good enough to possibly fool the GM & owner into thinking were a modest piece (ala Markieff Morris) away from the 8th seed were according to our misguided owner “anything can happen”. Maybe anything can happen in the NHL or MLB but not in the NBA were every playoff series is a 7-game series and the cream always rises to the top.

Unfortunately, a full rebuild makes little sense. Teams tank in the lottery with the hope of acquiring a Wall or Porter. We appear to be one all-star quality player and probably two solid level bench players away from being the 2nd best team in the East and a Cleveland injury from maybe even getting to the finals. Replace Mahinmi with Al Horford and Nicholson/Smith with Seth Curry & Nene.

Wall / Satoransky
Beal / Curry
Porter / Oubre
Horford / Morris
Gortat / Nene

It’s not a perfect roster but the starting lineup is arguably the 2nd best in the East. We’d have the versatility to go big or small. Our bench is still an issue but we’d at least have a couple of scoring options there in Nene, Morris & Curry and we wouldn’t need to count on Sato & Oubre to do so much.

However now that we’ve blown our wad on the likes of Mahinmi, Smith & Nicholson the free agency route to improving is now off the table. It would take an act of God to relieve ourselves of these contract burdens (plus we’ve just given Beal the farm).

The only other good option is to do a one-year tank job for the 2017 draft with one of the most impressive freshman classes in recent memory. Landing one big piece gives us an opportunity to retool on the fly and set us up nicely going forward. Ernie has done an admirable job of trying to set this up (if it really was his intention). We’ve got 3 legit tank commanders in Burke, Smith & Nicholson with Oubre getting honorable mention. Only problem is a Wall, Beal, Porter, Gortat foursome is probably too good to lead us to a high lottery pick. The 2nd problem is that anything that appears like an organization led tank job will likely piss off Wall to the point where he might ask to be traded and that would not be a good look. An injury certainly gets us there. A Gortat trade may get us there if we take little in the way of playable assets in return.

The final option is a piecemeal type move where we cobble our lousy assets together to seem if we can get an overpaid but redeemable rotation guy in hopes to stay relevant. Would Portland, Dallas or the Lakers take our slop in exchange for a contract they regret, with the idea that they could save $10, 15 or even $20 million in salary commitments? The three names that have been suggested are Allen Crabbe, Wesley Matthews and Loul Deng. All three are incredibly pricey but offer more than the trio of Smith, Nicholson & Burke in terms of on-court value. We’d likely see modest improvement of our bench but I’m not sure it would even be enough to make the playoffs.

One thing I’d avoid is the Ernie Grunfeld special. Sacrificing a 1st round pick for a middling player. It’s kept us solidly mediocre and it’s partly the reason why we are in the predicament we are in today. The only way I’d deal a 1st round pick is if Demarcus Cousins or someone of that ilk is coming back to DC. A while I’d love to see us acquire a star… it’s also likely farfetched.

What do you guys suggest? Why?

1. A full tank and likely painful rebuild.
2. A retool on the fly and tanking for just the 2016 season.
3. A piecemeal option where we take on salary to add depth
4. The Ernie Grunfeld special – use our pick & maybe Sato and/or Oubre to add a rotation quality player
5. Stay the course – Everything will be fine. Ignore the elephant over there in the corner.

Wish I could pick 2 cause the only realistic answer is 4 and 5 cause its Ernie and Terd!!! And season tickets keep getting wasted

EDIT: I can yep its 4 and 5

Oh how I wish that EG would have gone with a 2-year plan instead of a 4-year plan after Horford slipped away. We should have gone after guys like Zaza, Nene, Acy, Sessions, etc. on overpriced 2-year deals instead of the 4-year plans we handed out. At least then we'd have a viable reason for hope in 2018.

But no sense in dwelling on woulda shoulda coulda. We are here now.

I don't think I'd make any moves at the moment (other than to quietly shop Beal for a good young big like Cousins or Favors). The way I see it, the trade value of guys like Nicholson, Mahinmi, Morris and Oubre couldn't be any lower, so we may as well wait and see if anybody makes a midseason improvement before attempting a trade. No sense in selling low.

If we start to climb back into playoff contention, then we should just stand pat. It's boring, but there's no quick fix after what EG did in the offseason. If we continue to languish around 12th place by mid-January, then I'd start shopping Gortat for a 2017 pick. We can tank the second half of the season and go into a strong draft with a high lotto pick plus a mid 1st rounder.

I agree with nate. Don't do anything for the moment.

The smartest thing the Wizards can do is accept their fate. Grunfeld put a terrible bench together. The result will be tenth or worst in the east.

For once, keep the picks!

Get a new GM. Let this year and less than mediocre play out.

Hopefully, a new GM will draft well.

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There is simply no way we are going to be contenders with this crew.
As stated, we have an aging center in Gortat whose best days are in the past. He makes for a GREAT backup C, or a starter on a team where he need not be counted on to make defensive stops. He will quietly get 10 points and 10 rebounds on most nights. He is on a good contract.
We have a PG in Wall whose time is now. The window for him will close in 2-4 years. He is already starting to break down, as he cant do back-to-backs very well. Its not a conditioning thing. I think that its just his physical limit given how he plays. He is on a great contract.
We have an overpaid PG in Beal, who can light it up one moment and make you drool over what could be. Then he would follow that up with 4 games of 3/20 shooting. And then get injured and out of the rotation for 10-20 games. If he manages to stay healthy, he could be good for the next 6 years.
We have a SF in Porter with a goodly amount of potential. He could be a top 10 SF. Problem with him is that he can have a couple of good games, then follow it up with games where he will fade into the woodwork and you'd wonder where he went. His window is also 6 years.
Our PF, Morris, is starting quality, but his time is now. He has maybe 2-4 more years of peak time left.
We really have nobody after that. The book is still out on Sato.
Its more than that though... this team doesnt mesh well. We have a PG who wants to run, and only Beal and Porter can run with him. We have Gortat and to a lesser extent Morris who want to run P+R which Wall can do well too. On defense, well, we are poorly built.

Lets suppose we choose to identify ourselves as a running team. Then, we should trade Gortat and our bench for those kinds of players.
If we want to be the next Karl Malone and Stockton, running P+R all day, then we retool that way.
EG has put this team in a bind where we cant get any player who can help us without loosing something of value, like a first round pick or one of our starters, because our bench is pretty much worthless. EG is not going to find us a diamond in the rough, and he is not capable of making a one-sided deal that favors us. We are not capable of improving without loosing one or many of our starters.
So, we need to dismantle and restart. Restart with a new GM, and trade our major assets in Gortat and Wall for picks and youngens with potential.

Edit:
We need to start looking for the best deals, starting now. Wish EG were gone first though.

I would be for retooling on the fly, and getting more picks, but I'm not confident in the ability of the current front office to competently pursue any of these strategies.

The Wizards will need to use assets to get out from under the bad contracts they just signed and reset to some extent, but we'll need to get through this season before there's any change in direction, as has been pointed out.

Plus, we already have a plan that we're in the middle of, according to Ted:

“I think that fans [believe] in the win-now [mind-set], and if you don’t win now, if you lose two games in a row, make a change,” Leonsis said. “And they should be. It’s fantastic. It generates click streams. Right now, we developed a plan. I was in the middle of it. We were executing against the plan and the plan is working slower than I wanted it to be. But I’m in the middle of it.”

BigA wrote:I would be for retooling on the fly, and getting more picks, but I'm not confident in the ability of the current front office to competently pursue any of these strategies.

The Wizards will need to use assets to get out from under the bad contracts they just signed and reset to some extent, but we'll need to get through this season before there's any change in direction, as has been pointed out.

Plus, we already have a plan that we're in the middle of, according to Ted:

“I think that fans [believe] in the win-now [mind-set], and if you don’t win now, if you lose two games in a row, make a change,” Leonsis said. “And they should be. It’s fantastic. It generates click streams. Right now, we developed a plan. I was in the middle of it. We were executing against the plan and the plan is working slower than I wanted it to be. But I’m in the middle of it.”

"Current front office" includes the owner. Terd only hears what he wants to hear, and that's what EGg tells him. "The Plan" is a fuzzy mix of catch phrases derived from classic business-type self help guidebooks (think 7 Habits of...type books) and pop new-econ type sources like Freakonomics. It is less than the sum of its cribbed cut-and-paste ideas, which probably were not much more than Jack Handey's Deep Thoughts without the sense of humor in the first place. Just a lot of feel good pap, vague enough to fashion as guiding whatever is happening in the moment.

Terd n EGg are in year 7+ of the plan. Contending teams have torn down and rebuilt to contender status in that time. Everyone following this team closely now knows that they declared victory too early on their youth movement rebuild, and began to narrow their options by spending big money on high dollar, second tier veterans. To an outside observer like me, this contradicts The Plan in multiple ways, but The Plan is a moving target, so they are somehow able to make a case with a straight face that this team as assembled can contend for a championship and they have not acquired expensive veterans on long-term deals.

Terd says "two games in a row" as if there's some long tradition of Wizards success against which those two games should be measured, as if Grunfeld's miserable record as Wizards GM, under both Pollin and Leonsis, was not the more compelling factor. He refuses to acknowledge that fans have dealt with a generally lousy team for more than 35 years, a team that usually finishes under .500, sometimes well under .500, and treats merely getting into the playoffs as if that is success, rather than the pinnacle of mediocrity.

I would choose either of the first two options, because I think a competent GM might do a good job making something happen under either plan. But Terd is here with The Plan (which I noticed was not an option) and EGg is here with his whatever it is he does, so...I think Fire EGg and tell Terd to STFU should be an option too.

Nice one Monte! You can write with the best of them, bucko!

WallToWall wrote:There is simply no way we are going to be contenders with this crew.

*snip*

So, we need to dismantle and restart. Restart with a new GM, and trade our major assets in Gortat and Wall for picks and youngens with potential.

I agree that this crew has no path for contention. But I'm enough of a realist to understand that contention isn't the only goal for ownership. They'd be perfectly happy with a 45-win treadmill team that maybe sneaks into the 2nd round every other year during Wall's prime.

And I think the quickest path to that end is probably to stand pat and maybe make a Gortat trade at the Trade Deadline if we're clearly not going to make the playoffs. It's not too far-fetched to envision Oubre and Sato each becoming decent bench players by next year. And a healthy Mahinmi should be decent, even if he is overpaid. So that's potentially 3 competent bench players as soon as next year. McClellan is also an interesting prospect. We really need another good guard, preferably a Ramon Sessions type of shot creator to carry the 2nd unit. Maybe that guy is found in the draft or with the MLE.

Our starters are solid. Wall is close to a superstar now; and Beal, Porter and Gortat are all top 12 at their position. Morris is disappointing and certainly in the bottom 10 of starting power forwards, but he's not a complete liability. The issue is our bench. Given the youth on the bench, I just don't see management blowing it up. They'll wait and hope for improvement.

FWIW, the metrics suggest we are quite a bit better than our record. Ranked by SRS (which factors strength of schedule and point differential), we are right in the mix with the 8th-12th best teams in the East. Miami, Milwaukee, New York, Indy and Washington are all about the same:

Wizards should just play it out for now. They've played one of the tougher schedules in the league in the early going, and their biggest FA acquisition has been out. If a trade is the best option then the market can be explored as we get deeper into the season.

But as of now, I would insert Mahinmi into the starting lineup to shore up the D (or at least play him mostly with starters) and send Gortat's offense to the second unit. With Wall/Beal/Porter scoring like this, they can cover for any of Ian's offensive limitattions. Continue bringing Sato and Oubre along. Incorporate McClellan off the bench as an athletic defender who can handle and score.

With the East being so mediocre, I think a top 6 of Wall/Beal/Porter/Morris/Mahinmi/Gortat should be able to materialize into something reasonably in the playoff hunt. If disaster strikes or that group is way out of playoff contention by the trade deadline, then we should move Gortat for a pick, mini-tank for the rest of the season and keep our own pick. But I think they'll be in the playoff hunt more likely than not.

nate33 wrote:...contention isn't the only goal for ownership. They'd be perfectly happy with a 45-win treadmill team that maybe sneaks into the 2nd round every other year during Wall's prime.

Yes, but after a decade and a half of frustration, are you "perfectly happy" with that -- i.e. should fans be happy with that as a goal?

Moreover, ownership might be happy with that kind of team, but they don't have one! Nor is there a way to make "a 45-win treadmill team" be your goal -- I can't even come up with a way to try aim for that. If you're an archer, you can't try to make an occasional bulls-eye, while getting close most of the time. You aim at the target.

You are either good at what you do or you aren't. Ernie/Ted aren't good at this. That's why we're where we are.

nate33 wrote:And I think the quickest path to that end is probably to stand pat and maybe make a Gortat trade at the Trade Deadline if we're clearly not going to make the playoffs. It's not too far-fetched to envision Oubre and Sato each becoming decent bench players by next year. And a healthy Mahinmi should be decent, even if he is overpaid. So that's potentially 3 competent bench players as soon as next year. McClellan is also an interesting prospect....

I'd say it's more far-fetched to imagine Oubre & Sato both panning out than it is to imagine that neither of them do -- success is a rarer commodity than failure. As to McClellan, ...I mean... I'm the guy who started a thread for the guy! I wish him well. But I'd be happy to give better than even odds he isn't with us next year. If he's good, he gets an offer. If not.... And Ernie has no history of this kind of player development. He doesn't even like R2 choices, let alone guys who went undrafted. He likes veteran bandaids at the end of the bench.

nate33 wrote:Our starters are solid. Wall is close to a superstar now.... Morris is disappointing and certainly in the bottom 10 of starting power forwards, but he's not a complete liability....

John Wall is having a very good season. His usage has gone up, and his efficiency hasn't dropped. That's terrific. But... if you look at PGs around the league, at least Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Mike Conley, Kemba Walker, Damien Lillard & Patty Mills are having even better seasons. Note that I'm making no judgment here, so no reason to argue with me. It's just numbers. Beyond numbers, anyone can believe whatever they believe and tell a story that makes it so. Fans always think their players are better than they are.

nate33 wrote:...Beal, Porter and Gortat are all top 12 at their position

Porter and Gortat, yes. Beal has had a stretch of productive games. Will that continue? Where will he land? Will he stay healthy? We don't know the answers to those questions.

nate33 wrote:FWIW, the metrics suggest we are quite a bit better than our record....

How? Your table has us at #12. That's also where we are in the standings.

Sorry to disagree so thoroughly, nate. Not trying to gin up a dispute; just frustrated with our awful team created by our awful GM and our awful owner. And find it better by now to look at how it really is rather than kid myself.

payitforward wrote:Yes, but after a decade and a half of frustration, are you "perfectly happy" with that -- i.e. should fans be happy with that as a goal?

No. But in the intermediate term, I think I'd rather watch us win 42-45 games than institute a full rebuild. At least that's my feeling at the moment since I think there's a pretty good chance that we can regain our 45-win level. If I felt that we were permanently capped at 38 wins, then I'd say blow it up.

payitforward wrote:I'd say it's more far-fetched to imagine Oubre & Sato both panning out than it is to imagine that neither of them do -- success is a rarer commodity than failure.

I disagree. The bar for "good bench player" isn't all that high. Guys like Oubre, with great length, athleticism, and shooting ability, tend to pan out pretty well. Honestly, he just needs to get smarter on defense. That'll come in time. Sato has already shown flashes of real ability, and mostly just needs to adjust to the speed of the NBA game. He also needs more work on that jumper.

payitforward wrote:John Wall is having a very good season. His usage has gone up, and his efficiency hasn't dropped. That's terrific. But... if you look at PGs around the league, at least Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Mike Conley, Kemba Walker, Damien Lillard & Patty Mills are having even better seasons. Note that I'm making no judgment here, so no reason to argue with me. It's just numbers. Beyond numbers, anyone can believe whatever they believe and tell a story that makes it so. Fans always think their players are better than they are.

Wall is better than Mills and roughly even with Walker, Conley and Lillard. But even if you count all of those guys plus Lebron, Durant, Davis, Leonard, Butler and a couple more that I may have missed, Wall still ends up in the top 15 or so. I consider the "superstars" to typically be among the top 8 or so players - guys who could plausibly get MVP votes. If Wall is 15th, I think it's fair to characterize him as "close to superstar".

payitforward wrote:Porter and Gortat, yes. Beal has had a stretch of productive games. Will that continue? Where will he land? Will he stay healthy? We don't know the answers to those questions.

Agreed. Beal is playing like a top 10 SG right now, but there is no guarantee that he will stay healthy given his track record. I do think his numbers are sustainable with decent health since he seems to be getting those numbers through clear improvement in shot creation abilities and shot selection, not just a hot streak. Indeed, his shooting percentages from most areas are below his career averages.

payitforward wrote:How? Your table has us at #12. That's also where we are in the standings.

Yes, but the difference between #12 and #8 is just 2 points. That group from 8-12 is way ahead of the bottom feeders in the 13-15 range, and substantially below the top of the conference in the 1-7 range. SRS is a better predictor of performance than win-loss record, so I'm saying we are very close to playing as well as the 8th best team in the conference. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us back in the 8th seed in a few months. Of course, we could also lose a starter to injury and fall further behind - which is why I'd consider an Gortat trade in January if the playoffs appear out of reach.

montestewart wrote:

BigA wrote:I would be for retooling on the fly, and getting more picks, but I'm not confident in the ability of the current front office to competently pursue any of these strategies.

The Wizards will need to use assets to get out from under the bad contracts they just signed and reset to some extent, but we'll need to get through this season before there's any change in direction, as has been pointed out.

Plus, we already have a plan that we're in the middle of, according to Ted:

“I think that fans [believe] in the win-now [mind-set], and if you don’t win now, if you lose two games in a row, make a change,” Leonsis said. “And they should be. It’s fantastic. It generates click streams. Right now, we developed a plan. I was in the middle of it. We were executing against the plan and the plan is working slower than I wanted it to be. But I’m in the middle of it.”

"Current front office" includes the owner. Terd only hears what he wants to hear, and that's what EGg tells him. "The Plan" is a fuzzy mix of catch phrases derived from classic business-type self help guidebooks (think 7 Habits of...type books) and pop new-econ type sources like Freakonomics. It is less than the sum of its cribbed cut-and-paste ideas, which probably were not much more than Jack Handey's Deep Thoughts without the sense of humor in the first place. Just a lot of feel good pap, vague enough to fashion as guiding whatever is happening in the moment.

Terd n EGg are in year 7+ of the plan. Contending teams have torn down and rebuilt to contender status in that time. Everyone following this team closely now knows that they declared victory too early on their youth movement rebuild, and began to narrow their options by spending big money on high dollar, second tier veterans. To an outside observer like me, this contradicts The Plan in multiple ways, but The Plan is a moving target, so they are somehow able to make a case with a straight face that this team as assembled can contend for a championship and they have not acquired expensive veterans on long-term deals.

Terd says "two games in a row" as if there's some long tradition of Wizards success against which those two games should be measured, as if Grunfeld's miserable record as Wizards GM, under both Pollin and Leonsis, was not the more compelling factor. He refuses to acknowledge that fans have dealt with a generally lousy team for more than 35 years, a team that usually finishes under .500, sometimes well under .500, and treats merely getting into the playoffs as if that is success, rather than the pinnacle of mediocrity.

I would choose either of the first two options, because I think a competent GM might do a good job making something happen under either plan. But Terd is here with The Plan (which I noticed was not an option) and EGg is here with his whatever it is he does, so...I think Fire EGg and tell Terd to STFU should be an option too.

HOF post! Summarizes what I wanted to say, so eloquently!

Dat2U wrote:So here’s the conundrum. With Wall, Beal & Porter playing relatively well we have a nice core of 3 young quality players. Wall is just entering his prime at 26 and now healthy. Beal & Porter at 23 are still likely a year or two away from their primes. Porter has become a rock solid top 10ish SF, while Beal looks to be coming out of a season beginning slump to potentially put up his best season to date. Gortat has been solid but at 32 his future is right at this moment and his defense, while still decent is beginning to slip a bit.

Absolutely disappointed in the analysis of this board. Porter is the worst in the league at the most important statistic. FTA.

I have posted FTA for all players who have logged minutes at the small forward position and otto ranks 58th. This is absolutely disgusting. There are 32 teams and our bar is so low for how we evaluate a player that we actually think Otto is a good player. Look at all of the players in the league 58 players who have more FTA. Otto has been to line 25 times. I repeat 25 times. Nick young has gotten to the line more times than otto and he isn't even a starter. We mock EG on this board but the realgms seem to give very little weight to this most important statistic.

Porter has a lousy 28 attempts for the whole season that he has contributed to his team. We have the worst record in our division. There is a huge correlation between the


Beal is not much better in terms of the most important stat. He ranked 22nd for all players who have logged minutes at the sg position. How can you ever consider yourself a playoff team if your scorers don't rank in the top 10 at their position in FTA. Can we up this discussion for the real gm's on this board to figure out how to get at least a top 10 FTA player for his position.



Wall has 87 FTA



But that is a tremendous problem when your point guard who distributes the ball is also the only one on his team ranked in the top ten at FTA for players who logged minutes at the point guard position.

The wizards are in a disastrous position with NO foreseeable players on the roster in the foreseeable future that are even sniffing top 10 at their position for FTA. This is a result of disastrous moves. FTA for the entire season....not FTA average per game...paints the perfect picture of this team future. very very very bleak. Now can any genius pretend realgm figure out a way for us to get at least two players who can rank top ten in FTA per game at their position. Beal is ranked 22 out of players who have logged minutes at the sg position. He has never in the past come close to top ten FTA for players who have logged minutes at the sg position and he is 22nd now. 22 players who have logged minutes at sg position are better than beal at getting to line. this is a disastrous if Beal is your primary scorer. Westbrook who is basically john wall has 100 more FTA in the same amount of games as wall.

YOU as the pretend GM must figure out a way to bring in Players who can possibly be ranked top 10 in FTA at their position? Total Free Throw Attempts, not average FTA per game because a player who is injured isn't helping their team. Total Free Throw ATTEMPTS for the season is the most important STAT. That is the challenge. YOu can give weight to defensive rebounds, steals, or even three pointers, but show me a list a players by FTA for the entire season and YOu will see that the teams they belong too are usually a top 4 playoff seed team. That is the challenge pretend GM's. Can you meet the challenge?

What trades can we execute to bring in a top 10 FTA for minutes logged at his position or is this impossible? This is what a great GM does and why he earns his salary.

WizarDynasty wrote:

Dat2U wrote:So here’s the conundrum. With Wall, Beal & Porter playing relatively well we have a nice core of 3 young quality players. Wall is just entering his prime at 26 and now healthy. Beal & Porter at 23 are still likely a year or two away from their primes. Porter has become a rock solid top 10ish SF, while Beal looks to be coming out of a season beginning slump to potentially put up his best season to date. Gortat has been solid but at 32 his future is right at this moment and his defense, while still decent is beginning to slip a bit.

Absolutely disappointed in the analysis of this board. Porter is the worst in the league at the most important statistic. FTA.

Porter is indeed terrible at drawing FTs, which is one of the biggest obstacles to giving him a bigger role as a scorer/offensive creator. His FT rate has somehow regressed back to his rookie year levels, at a paltry .143.


However for Beal you're adding up total FTAs, he has missed some games which is why he ranks lower.

Beal is tied for 4th in FTAs/game among SGs:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/free-throws/sort/avgFreeThrowsAttempted/position/shooting-guards

Wall is 4th among PGs:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/free-throws/sort/avgFreeThrowsAttempted/position/point-guards

Morris is 10th among PFs:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/free-throws/sort/avgFreeThrowsAttempted/position/power-forwards

Trade our pick for Rudy Gay. LESSSSS GOOOOOO!!!!1!


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montestewart wrote:

BigA wrote:I would be for retooling on the fly, and getting more picks, but I'm not confident in the ability of the current front office to competently pursue any of these strategies.

The Wizards will need to use assets to get out from under the bad contracts they just signed and reset to some extent, but we'll need to get through this season before there's any change in direction, as has been pointed out.

Plus, we already have a plan that we're in the middle of, according to Ted:

“I think that fans [believe] in the win-now [mind-set], and if you don’t win now, if you lose two games in a row, make a change,” Leonsis said. “And they should be. It’s fantastic. It generates click streams. Right now, we developed a plan. I was in the middle of it. We were executing against the plan and the plan is working slower than I wanted it to be. But I’m in the middle of it.”

"Current front office" includes the owner. Terd only hears what he wants to hear, and that's what EGg tells him. "The Plan" is a fuzzy mix of catch phrases derived from classic business-type self help guidebooks (think 7 Habits of...type books) and pop new-econ type sources like Freakonomics. It is less than the sum of its cribbed cut-and-paste ideas, which probably were not much more than Jack Handey's Deep Thoughts without the sense of humor in the first place. Just a lot of feel good pap, vague enough to fashion as guiding whatever is happening in the moment.

Terd n EGg are in year 7+ of the plan. Contending teams have torn down and rebuilt to contender status in that time. Everyone following this team closely now knows that they declared victory too early on their youth movement rebuild, and began to narrow their options by spending big money on high dollar, second tier veterans. To an outside observer like me, this contradicts The Plan in multiple ways, but The Plan is a moving target, so they are somehow able to make a case with a straight face that this team as assembled can contend for a championship and they have not acquired expensive veterans on long-term deals.

Terd says "two games in a row" as if there's some long tradition of Wizards success against which those two games should be measured, as if Grunfeld's miserable record as Wizards GM, under both Pollin and Leonsis, was not the more compelling factor. He refuses to acknowledge that fans have dealt with a generally lousy team for more than 35 years, a team that usually finishes under .500, sometimes well under .500, and treats merely getting into the playoffs as if that is success, rather than the pinnacle of mediocrity.

I would choose either of the first two options, because I think a competent GM might do a good job making something happen under either plan. But Terd is here with The Plan (which I noticed was not an option) and EGg is here with his whatever it is he does, so...I think Fire EGg and tell Terd to STFU should be an option too.

nate33 wrote:

payitforward wrote:Yes, but after a decade and a half of frustration, are you "perfectly happy" with that -- i.e. should fans be happy with that as a goal?

No. But in the intermediate term, I think I'd rather watch us win 42-45 games than institute a full rebuild. At least that's my feeling at the moment since I think there's a pretty good chance that we can regain our 45-win level. If I felt that we were permanently capped at 38 wins, then I'd say blow it up.

payitforward wrote:I'd say it's more far-fetched to imagine Oubre & Sato both panning out than it is to imagine that neither of them do -- success is a rarer commodity than failure.

I disagree. The bar for "good bench player" isn't all that high. Guys like Oubre, with great length, athleticism, and shooting ability, tend to pan out pretty well. Honestly, he just needs to get smarter on defense. That'll come in time. Sato has already shown flashes of real ability, and mostly just needs to adjust to the speed of the NBA game. He also needs more work on that jumper.

payitforward wrote:John Wall is having a very good season. His usage has gone up, and his efficiency hasn't dropped. That's terrific. But... if you look at PGs around the league, at least Chris Paul, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry, Mike Conley, Kemba Walker, Damien Lillard & Patty Mills are having even better seasons. Note that I'm making no judgment here, so no reason to argue with me. It's just numbers. Beyond numbers, anyone can believe whatever they believe and tell a story that makes it so. Fans always think their players are better than they are.

Wall is better than Mills and roughly even with Walker, Conley and Lillard. But even if you count all of those guys plus Lebron, Durant, Davis, Leonard, Butler and a couple more that I may have missed, Wall still ends up in the top 15 or so. I consider the "superstars" to typically be among the top 8 or so players - guys who could plausibly get MVP votes. If Wall is 15th, I think it's fair to characterize him as "close to superstar".

payitforward wrote:Porter and Gortat, yes. Beal has had a stretch of productive games. Will that continue? Where will he land? Will he stay healthy? We don't know the answers to those questions.

Agreed. Beal is playing like a top 10 SG right now, but there is no guarantee that he will stay healthy given his track record. I do think his numbers are sustainable with decent health since he seems to be getting those numbers through clear improvement in shot creation abilities and shot selection, not just a hot streak. Indeed, his shooting percentages from most areas are below his career averages.

payitforward wrote:How? Your table has us at #12. That's also where we are in the standings.

Yes, but the difference between #12 and #8 is just 2 points. That group from 8-12 is way ahead of the bottom feeders in the 13-15 range, and substantially below the top of the conference in the 1-7 range. SRS is a better predictor of performance than win-loss record, so I'm saying we are very close to playing as well as the 8th best team in the conference. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see us back in the 8th seed in a few months. Of course, we could also lose a starter to injury and fall further behind - which is why I'd consider an Gortat trade in January if the playoffs appear out of reach.

Right now they are 5-10.

The must go 40-27 to win 45 games. They must go 37-30 to win just 42 games.

It's NOT going to happen with this team as currently assembled.

More likely is 33 to 35 wins.

However, before that happens expect Ernie Grunfeld to do something radically stupid.

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Illmatic12 wrote:Wizards should just play it out for now. They've played one of the tougher schedules in the league in the early going, and their biggest FA acquisition has been out. If a trade is the best option then the market can be explored as we get deeper into the season.

But as of now, I would insert Mahinmi into the starting lineup to shore up the D (or at least play him mostly with starters) and send Gortat's offense to the second unit. With Wall/Beal/Porter scoring like this, they can cover for any of Ian's offensive limitattions. Continue bringing Sato and Oubre along. Incorporate McClellan off the bench as an athletic defender who can handle and score.

With the East being so mediocre, I think a top 6 of Wall/Beal/Porter/Morris/Mahinmi/Gortat should be able to materialize into something reasonably in the playoff hunt. If disaster strikes or that group is way out of playoff contention by the trade deadline, then we should move Gortat for a pick, mini-tank for the rest of the season and keep our own pick. But I think they'll be in the playoff hunt more likely than not.

I would’ve thought our top 6 was good enough to make a playoff run as well. But the problem is Morris is not holding up his end of the bargain and the rest of the roster is a huge on-court negative. I think our starting lineup is like Nate33 states, they are capable of being a 45-win team. But the bench, oh the bench! Now we clearly know why Nicholson barely got 800+ minutes in Orlando. We clearly know why Burke lost his minutes to the likes of Shelvin Mack & Raul Neto. We know why Marcus Thornton was available for the veteran minimum.

You take our bench of last year with Sessions, Nene, Dudley & Temple… 4 legit NBA players and we’d likely win 45 games if not more. You replace those four with Mahinmi, Satoransky and complete dreck, were left in the position we are now.

As far as playing it out now… that might be the best option to avoid the appearance of the tank. Let it happen organically. The fear is that we may cobble up enough wins to stay on the outer peripheral of the playoff hunt and thusly set up the false notion that were only (insert excuse here) away from being in the playoffs. Better that we fall flat. Continue drowning as a 12th seed while the playoff caliber team pull further & further away to the point where it necessitates a rebuild of some sort.

I agree with the idea of continuing to ride out the struggles of Sato & Oubre and letting McClellan get some burn. Simply because the rest of the roster is pretty much unplayable anyways.

WizarDynasty wrote:

Dat2U wrote:So here’s the conundrum. With Wall, Beal & Porter playing relatively well we have a nice core of 3 young quality players. Wall is just entering his prime at 26 and now healthy. Beal & Porter at 23 are still likely a year or two away from their primes. Porter has become a rock solid top 10ish SF, while Beal looks to be coming out of a season beginning slump to potentially put up his best season to date. Gortat has been solid but at 32 his future is right at this moment and his defense, while still decent is beginning to slip a bit.

Absolutely disappointed in the analysis of this board. Porter is the worst in the league at the most important statistic. FTA.

I have posted FTA for all players who have logged minutes at the small forward position and otto ranks 58th. This is absolutely disgusting. There are 32 teams and our bar is so low for how we evaluate a player that we actually think Otto is a good player. Look at all of the players in the league 58 players who have more FTA. Otto has been to line 25 times. I repeat 25 times. Nick young has gotten to the line more times than otto and he isn't even a starter. We mock EG on this board but the realgms seem to give very little weight to this most important statistic.

Porter has a lousy 28 attempts for the whole season that he has contributed to his team. We have the worst record in our division. There is a huge correlation between the

Code: Select all

1   J. Harden Hou - PG,SG,SF   175
2   D. DeRozan Tor - SG,SF   152
3   J. Butler Chi - SG,SF   151
4   A. Wiggins Min - SG,SF   129
5   K. Leonard SA - SG,SF   120
6   K. Durant GS - SF,PF   111
7   G. Antetokounmpo Mil - PG,SG,SF   94
8   L. James Cle - SF,PF   93
9   D. Gallinari Den - SF   88
10   R. Gay Sac - SF,PF   85
11   E. Fournier Orl - SG,SF   73
12   C. Anthony NY - SF,PF   68
13   H. Barnes Dal - SF,PF   62
14   G. Hayward Uta - SG,SF   60
15   N. Batum Cha - SG,SF   59
16   J. Parker Mil - SF,PF   58
17   T. Harris Det - SF,PF   57
18   M. Kidd-Gilchrist Cha - SF   52
19   W. Chandler Den - SG,SF   51
20   D. Green GS - SF,PF   47
21   D. Waiters Mia - SG,SF   46
22   M. Morris Was - SF,PF,C   45
23   B. Bogdanovic Bkn - SG,SF   45
24   R. Hood Uta - SG,SF   45
25   T. Jones NO - SF,PF   45
26   T. Warren Pho - SF   44
27   R. Hollis-Jefferson Bkn - SG,SF   44
28   P. George Ind - SF,PF   43
29   J. Crawford LAC - SG,SF   41
30   N. Mirotic Chi - SF,PF   41
31   B. Ingram LAL - SF   40
32   K. Thompson GS - SG,SF   39
33   J. Johnson Mia - SF,PF   39
34   K. Bazemore Atl - SG,SF   38
35   W. Matthews Dal - SG,SF   38
36   P. Tucker Pho - SG,SF   38
37   J. Ennis Mem - SG,SF   36
38   J. Grant OKC - SF,PF   36
39   J. Simmons SA - SG,SF   34
40   J. Green Orl - SG,SF   34
41   A. Gordon Orl - SF,PF   34
42   N. Young LAL - SG,SF   34
43   J. Anderson Dal - SF   33
44   T. Hardaway Jr. Atl - SG,SF   33
45   A. Afflalo Sac - SG,SF   33
46   R. Covington Phi - SF,PF   31
47   V. Carter Mem - SG,SF   31
48   M. Morris Det - SF,PF   30
49   L. Richard Mbah a Moute LAC - SF,PF   29
50   E. Ilyasova Phi - SF,PF   28
51   J. Dudley Pho - SG,SF,PF   28
52   S. Muhammad Min - SG,SF   28
53   S. Hill NO - SG,SF   28
54   E. Turner Por - SG,SF   28
55   J. Brown Bos - SF   27
56   W. Barton Den - SG,SF   26
57   M. Belinelli Cha - SG,SF   26
58   O. Porter Was - SF   25


Beal is not much better in terms of the most important stat. He ranked 22nd for all players who have logged minutes at the sg position. How can you ever consider yourself a playoff team if your scorers don't rank in the top 10 at their position in FTA. Can we up this discussion for the real gm's on this board to figure out how to get at least a top 10 FTA player for his position.

Code: Select all

1   J. Harden Hou - PG,SG,SF   175
2   D. DeRozan Tor - SG,SF   152
3   J. Butler Chi - SG,SF   151
4   A. Wiggins Min - SG,SF   129
5   K. Leonard SA - SG,SF   120
6   E. Bledsoe Pho - PG,SG   111
7   G. Antetokounmpo Mil - PG,SG,SF   94
8   S. Curry GS - PG,SG   85
9   L. Williams LAL - PG,SG   80
10   E. Fournier Orl - SG,SF   73
11   D. Booker Pho - SG   69
12   S. Kilpatrick Bkn - PG,SG   68
13   C. McCollum Por - PG,SG   67
14   D. Wade Chi - PG,SG   62
15   G. Hayward Uta - SG,SF   60
16   N. Batum Cha - SG,SF   59
17   GTD   
18   T. Johnson Mia - PG,SG   59
19   B. Knight Pho - PG,SG   58
20   K. Caldwell-Pope Det - SG   51
21   W. Chandler Den - SG,SF   51
22   B. Beal Was - SG   51

Wall has 87 FTA

Code: Select all

1   R. Westbrook OKC - PG   192
2   J. Harden Hou - PG,SG,SF   175
3   D. Lillard Por - PG   164
4   I. Thomas Bos - PG   145
5   E. Bledsoe Pho - PG,SG   111
6   K. Walker Cha - PG   98
7   G. Antetokounmpo Mil - PG,SG,SF   94
8   C. Paul LAC - PG   94
9   M. Conley Mem - PG   87
10   J. Wall Was - PG   87

But that is a tremendous problem when your point guard who distributes the ball is also the only one on his team ranked in the top ten at FTA for players who logged minutes at the point guard position.

The wizards are in a disastrous position with NO foreseeable players on the roster in the foreseeable future that are even sniffing top 10 at their position for FTA. This is a result of disastrous moves. FTA for the entire season....not FTA average per game...paints the perfect picture of this team future. very very very bleak. Now can any genius pretend realgm figure out a way for us to get at least two players who can rank top ten in FTA per game at their position. Beal is ranked 22 out of players who have logged minutes at the sg position. He has never in the past come close to top ten FTA for players who have logged minutes at the sg position and he is 22nd now. 22 players who have logged minutes at sg position are better than beal at getting to line. this is a disastrous if Beal is your primary scorer. Westbrook who is basically john wall has 100 more FTA in the same amount of games as wall.

YOU as the pretend GM must figure out a way to bring in Players who can possibly be ranked top 10 in FTA at their position? Total Free Throw Attempts, not average FTA per game because a player who is injured isn't helping their team. Total Free Throw ATTEMPTS for the season is the most important STAT. That is the challenge. YOu can give weight to defensive rebounds, steals, or even three pointers, but show me a list a players by FTA for the entire season and YOu will see that the teams they belong too are usually a top 4 playoff seed team. That is the challenge pretend GM's. Can you meet the challenge?

What trades can we execute to bring in a top 10 FTA for minutes logged at his position or is this impossible? This is what a great GM does and why he earns his salary.

You trade Wall for Bledsoe and a crap load of picks?

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We need a game changer. Wall isn't a good enough scorer to be the first option on a contender. Beal isn't either right now, and though he might get there eventually, that's a leap.

The painful truth about this construction is that, as good as Wall is, he's not good enough to be the guy for a championship caliber team and he might start declining at or even before 30. He doesn't keep himself in good shape. He's got a history of chronic leg injuries that have already diminished his lateral speed and leaping ability. He's already having trouble playing back to backs even though he's 26, not 36. And he's basically Allen Iverson on defense now. He's figured out that he can give no effort on that end and still escape criticism so long as he still gets his points and assists on offense. He and Beal developed horrible habits on defense.

Beal is a grinder and has the make up of an overachiever, but he's only an above average athlete for his position and he's got average size. And his instincts and BBall IQ still aren't fully polished. When he's dialed in he can drop 30 on any defense in the NBA. But there are a lot of nights where he's just behind the 8 ball trying to read the floor and just ends up blending in. And because of his size and lack of explosiveness, he's never going to be a lock down defensive player. He can be one of the best SGs in the NBA but we need his ceiling to be higher than that to make the leap.

Wall and Beal are both second stars. They need to play with a legit superstar to contend.

Porter is a championship caliber glue guy. Great rebounder and strong team defender. And he is the ideal third or fourth option scorer. But he will never be more than that. He does not have the athleticism and creativity to be a real first or second option scorer. He's also a weak on ball defender, you wish he could really strap guys up on the perimeter since Wall and Beal can't. But Neither can Porter.

Morris is just a guy. Same for Gortat at this point in his career. They're competent starters but their weak defense doesn't mesh well with the horrible defensive play of our perimeter players. Mahinmi has the PnR ability to play with Wall and he's an explosive athlete who could actually bring some defensive starch to our line up. But he's 30. And he doesn't have the range or ball handling to play PF. Sato and Oubre both have a ceiling of being a quality role player for a contender, but neither are particularly good role players at this early stage. You can only count on them to come up big in like one or two in five games right now. Nicholson has some tools but is such a crap defender and the bench is full of chuckers so he's probably going to be a bust. The rest of the bench is replacement level or worse.

So I say again, we need a game changer. We need a real first option stud scorer and we need to rebuild our role player positions to include strong defenders. The only two options I can think of for getting that stud scorer are swinging a trade for Cousins or lucking into one in this year's lottery. It's going to be hard to get Wall's window to match with a 19 year old one and done.

Cousins is our answer.

Fire Ernie and hope that Porter keeps playing well and upping his trade value. Hope Sacramento gets desperate and pull the trigger on a Porter + Gortat/Mahinmi + draft picks for Cousins trade if you have the chance. Let the new GM figure out how to rebuild around Wall, Beal, and Cousins.