John Wall vs Gilbert Arenas

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If you compare Wall's numbers this year with Gilbert's numbers in '05-6 (pretty much his best year), it's obvious Gil was a substantially better offensive player (not that anyone questioned this). He scored more points, more efficiently, on higher usage.

Moreover, if you take a rough measure of ball possession via rebounds, TOs & steals, Gilbert comes out ahead there as well (not by a lot, but still...).

But, everything else is strongly in Wall's favor. Gil got about half the assists Wall did (per x minutes), about half the blocks Wall did, & committed virtually twice as many fouls.

Despite Gilbert being better in the ways people love most (how many points does a guy score), overall Wall was better this year than Gil was in '05-06.

I don't see how you can compare the players on their whole careers yet, however. But... even if you do, Gil declined enough his last 3 years that John still wins the comparison.

[nate33]

Just for fun combining both those teams (06-07 with 16-17)

PG- Wall, Daniels
SG- Arenas, Beal, Stevenson
SF- Butler, Bogdonovic
PF- Porter, Jamison, Morris
C- Gortat, Haywood

Not really all that much better than our current squad, IMO. Other than the depth of the 2nd unit, of course.

Just give me our current squad and replace Jennings with Arenas and we'd do just as well.

[Shanghai Kid]

As great as Wall has been, I think Arenas on this team gives us a better chance firepower wise against elite teams like Cleveland/Golden State. Against elite teams I would still trust Gilbert in the 4th quarter when guys like Lebron and Curry/Durant get it going.

Advanced metrics are very kind to Gilbert, they show him being a pretty significant offensive player and his 13.6 winshares in 06 was no joke.

But, I think Arenas while upgrading us offensively of course downgrades us defensively. How significantly I don't know. Gilbert was bad defensively but he wasn't IT bad. I'm still slightly inclined to say that Gilbert was such a better offensive player that he gets the edge.

[Shanghai Kid]

If you compare Wall's numbers this year with Gilbert's numbers in '05-6 (pretty much his best year), it's obvious Gil was a substantially better offensive player (not that anyone questioned this). He scored more points, more efficiently, on higher usage.

Moreover, if you take a rough measure of ball possession via rebounds, TOs & steals, Gilbert comes out ahead there as well (not by a lot, but still...).

But, everything else is strongly in Wall's favor. Gil got about half the assists Wall did (per x minutes), about half the blocks Wall did, & committed virtually twice as many fouls.

Despite Gilbert being better in the ways people love most (how many points does a guy score), overall Wall was better this year than Gil was in '05-06.

I don't see how you can compare the players on their whole careers yet, however. But... even if you do, Gil declined enough his last 3 years that John still wins the comparison.

There is almost no evidence in any advanced metric to show that Wall is as impactful as Gilbert was in 2006 Gilbert was a better offensive player and difference in their defense was not enough to offset the difference in offense. Even with Wall getting more assists, Gilbert had a much more significant impact on the offense going by OBPM, Offensive win shares, OTRG.

[nate33]

If you compare Wall's numbers this year with Gilbert's numbers in '05-6 (pretty much his best year), it's obvious Gil was a substantially better offensive player (not that anyone questioned this). He scored more points, more efficiently, on higher usage.

Moreover, if you take a rough measure of ball possession via rebounds, TOs & steals, Gilbert comes out ahead there as well (not by a lot, but still...).

But, everything else is strongly in Wall's favor. Gil got about half the assists Wall did (per x minutes), about half the blocks Wall did, & committed virtually twice as many fouls.

Despite Gilbert being better in the ways people love most (how many points does a guy score), overall Wall was better this year than Gil was in '05-06.

I don't see how you can compare the players on their whole careers yet, however. But... even if you do, Gil declined enough his last 3 years that John still wins the comparison.

There is almost no evidence in any advanced metric to show that Wall is as impactful as Gilbert was in 2006 Gilbert was a better offensive player and difference in their defense was not enough to offset the difference in offense. Even with Wall getting more assists, Gilbert had a much more significant impact on the offense going by OBPM, Offensive win shares, OTRG.

I dunno. I think there is something intangible to having a pure PG like John Wall getting everyone else involved. He makes other guys want to run the floor, or make the backdoor cut, or roll aggressively to the rim. Would Otto Porter be having a career year alongside Arenas? Would he get enough catch-and-shoot 3's? What about Beal? Beal has become a much better one-on-one scorer this season, but he is still helped a great deal by Wall delivering 2 or 3 picture perfect catch-and-shoot opportunities a game on the fast break.

[Kanyewest]

Crazy thing is now Wall is a year older than when Arenas got injured. Sucks that Arenas potentially lost his prime.

[Shanghai Kid]

If you compare Wall's numbers this year with Gilbert's numbers in '05-6 (pretty much his best year), it's obvious Gil was a substantially better offensive player (not that anyone questioned this). He scored more points, more efficiently, on higher usage.

Moreover, if you take a rough measure of ball possession via rebounds, TOs & steals, Gilbert comes out ahead there as well (not by a lot, but still...).

But, everything else is strongly in Wall's favor. Gil got about half the assists Wall did (per x minutes), about half the blocks Wall did, & committed virtually twice as many fouls.

Despite Gilbert being better in the ways people love most (how many points does a guy score), overall Wall was better this year than Gil was in '05-06.

I don't see how you can compare the players on their whole careers yet, however. But... even if you do, Gil declined enough his last 3 years that John still wins the comparison.

There is almost no evidence in any advanced metric to show that Wall is as impactful as Gilbert was in 2006 Gilbert was a better offensive player and difference in their defense was not enough to offset the difference in offense. Even with Wall getting more assists, Gilbert had a much more significant impact on the offense going by OBPM, Offensive win shares, OTRG.

I dunno. I think there is something intangible to having a pure PG like John Wall getting everyone else involved. He makes other guys want to run the floor, or make the backdoor cut, or roll aggressively to the rim. Would Otto Porter be having a career year alongside Arenas? Would he get enough catch-and-shoot 3's? What about Beal? Beal has become a much better one-on-one scorer this season, but he is still helped a great deal by Wall delivering 2 or 3 picture perfect catch-and-shoot opportunities a game on the fast break.

It's a good point, but maybe I'm wrong but I felt like other offensive guys had great years playing with Gilbert also because the attention he demands as a scorer

[Kanyewest]

Butler/Jamison/Hughes/Stevenson/Jeffries/Dixon essentially had career years in Washington. A combination of Gilbert Arenas and Eddie Jordan's offense.

BTW, I suspect Arenas would be even more efficient with Beal/Porter and for that matter Washington's current starting 5. Arenas took about as many shots as Wall on per 100 possession basis so at least Beal/Porter would be allowed as many touches. Arenas also did set up his teammates for open 3s, they simply took less because of the philosophy of the era vs today and that there wasn't as much of an emphasis on 3s. For instance, someone like Caron Butler would have worked much more on his 3 point shot rather than his patented mid range jumper. Plus Jamison/Hayes weren't exactly great 3 point shooters.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Hard choice honestly. If Wall could bring elite level defense every night then it'd be clearly him, also Wall after like year 3 had a much better environment than Gilbert ever did. People underrate just how good Gilbert was though - he was every bit as good as Kobe or Wade, while having really glaring flaws that someone like Brooks could have fixed. It's just a shame EJ was his coach.

Hold up hold up! I hate Kobe as much as the next guy but that stretching it a little. Arenas had Hardin like D Kobe was great on both ends of the court. Also if Wall plays great in the ecf I think you have to give it to him hands down

Also, Wade always got the better of prime Gilbert.

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[nate33]

There is almost no evidence in any advanced metric to show that Wall is as impactful as Gilbert was in 2006 Gilbert was a better offensive player and difference in their defense was not enough to offset the difference in offense. Even with Wall getting more assists, Gilbert had a much more significant impact on the offense going by OBPM, Offensive win shares, OTRG.

I dunno. I think there is something intangible to having a pure PG like John Wall getting everyone else involved. He makes other guys want to run the floor, or make the backdoor cut, or roll aggressively to the rim. Would Otto Porter be having a career year alongside Arenas? Would he get enough catch-and-shoot 3's? What about Beal? Beal has become a much better one-on-one scorer this season, but he is still helped a great deal by Wall delivering 2 or 3 picture perfect catch-and-shoot opportunities a game on the fast break.

It's a good point, but maybe I'm wrong but I felt like other offensive guys had great years playing with Gilbert also because the attention he demands as a scorer

FWIW, I'm not sure who I'd take between peak Wall and peak Arenas. You are absolutely correct that Arenas was a terrific offensive player and his statistical edge over Wall is significant. I'm just not certain we can decide this on individual box score stats alone. There are quite a few players in the Eastern Conference with better advanced numbers than Wall, but I don't think anyone save Lebron is a better player.

[CobraCommander]

Just for fun combining both those teams (06-07 with 16-17)

PG- Wall, Daniels
SG- Arenas, Beal, Stevenson
SF- Butler, Bogdonovic
PF- Porter, Jamison, Morris
C- Gortat, Haywood

Not really all that much better than our current squad, IMO. Other than the depth of the 2nd unit, of course.

Just give me our current squad and replace Jennings with Arenas and we'd do just as well.

I so disagree. The combined squad would be favorite to win the title.

can you imagine Wall streaking with Beal in the left corner and Areanas in the right? PICK YOUR SURFACE OF THE SUN!

You could sit Wall or Beal and Gil could run either the point or 2 effectively with the "second" unit.

Our small ball would be Wall, Beal, Gil, Butler and Jamison... Death Line UP!

The Defensive unit... Butler and... and...well we could play good team defense...

[CobraCommander]

Gil was exciting but Wall is a better team leader. Prime Gil was top a top 10 player in the league and I honestly think he was better than Wade...I think Wall is still on his way up.

[Kanyewest]

Hard choice honestly. If Wall could bring elite level defense every night then it'd be clearly him, also Wall after like year 3 had a much better environment than Gilbert ever did. People underrate just how good Gilbert was though - he was every bit as good as Kobe or Wade, while having really glaring flaws that someone like Brooks could have fixed. It's just a shame EJ was his coach.

Hold up hold up! I hate Kobe as much as the next guy but that stretching it a little. Arenas had Hardin like D Kobe was great on both ends of the court. Also if Wall plays great in the ecf I think you have to give it to him hands down

Also, Wade always got the better of prime Gilbert.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

Having Shaq helped. And all the other guys like Mourning, Haslem,and a young Rasual Butler .

[Kanyewest]

Gil was exciting but Wall is a better team leader. Prime Gil was top a top 10 player in the league and I honestly think he was better than Wade...I think Wall is still on his way up.

At this point Wall is older than prime Arenas, so perhaps he's a better leader. I will say though that Arenas was pretty confident, a gym rat, and lead by example so I wouldn't say he was a bad leader.

[Shanghai Kid]

I dunno. I think there is something intangible to having a pure PG like John Wall getting everyone else involved. He makes other guys want to run the floor, or make the backdoor cut, or roll aggressively to the rim. Would Otto Porter be having a career year alongside Arenas? Would he get enough catch-and-shoot 3's? What about Beal? Beal has become a much better one-on-one scorer this season, but he is still helped a great deal by Wall delivering 2 or 3 picture perfect catch-and-shoot opportunities a game on the fast break.

It's a good point, but maybe I'm wrong but I felt like other offensive guys had great years playing with Gilbert also because the attention he demands as a scorer

FWIW, I'm not sure who I'd take between peak Wall and peak Arenas. You are absolutely correct that Arenas was a terrific offensive player and his statistical edge over Wall is significant. I'm just not certain we can decide this on individual box score stats alone. There are quite a few players in the Eastern Conference with better advanced numbers than Wall, but I don't think anyone save Lebron is a better player.

I agree. Advanced stats have their place, but there maybe has become an over-reliance on them in comparing players. A good example is that advanced metrics would say Lowry is a better and more valuable player then Wall, but the eye test and what we'e seen from them in the playoffs suggests differently.

Wall has superior Bball IQ and court vision, probably among the best in the league. But that doesn't always show up in the stats.

[Silvie Lysandra]

Butler/Jamison/Hughes/Stevenson/Jeffries/Dixon essentially had career years in Washington. A combination of Gilbert Arenas and Eddie Jordan's offense.

BTW, I suspect Arenas would be even more efficient with Beal/Porter and for that matter Washington's current starting 5. Arenas took about as many shots as Wall on per 100 possession basis so at least Beal/Porter would be allowed as many touches. Arenas also did set up his teammates for open 3s, they simply took less because of the philosophy of the era vs today and that there wasn't as much of an emphasis on 3s. For instance, someone like Caron Butler would have worked much more on his 3 point shot rather than his patented mid range jumper. Plus Jamison/Hayes weren't exactly great 3 point shooters.

Imo the modern era comp would be a rich man's James Harden. Harden is a good playmaker but he's not a real PG (Arenas didn't have elite court vision but it was above average), he's actually a WORSE 3pt shooter than Arenas but he just takes the shot more, and he's not nearly as explosive.

Brooks would have to tweak his system a bit but I could absolutely see Arenas have the same kind of offensive impact as Steph (he'll make up the difference in 3pt efficiency with FTR, and honestly Arenas was kind of a proto-Steph to begin with) won't does. Think 35/10/6 on north of .600% TS%. In fact you could even experiment with a GSW-style death lineup as follows:

Arenas
Beal
Oubre
Sato
Porter

Honestly I'm not knocking Wall who is def on HOF pace but Arenas basically looked like a top 20-30 ATG player for us until he got hurt and he wasn't even truly "prime" yet.

[Illmatic12]

Butler/Jamison/Hughes/Stevenson/Jeffries/Dixon essentially had career years in Washington. A combination of Gilbert Arenas and Eddie Jordan's offense.

BTW, I suspect Arenas would be even more efficient with Beal/Porter and for that matter Washington's current starting 5. Arenas took about as many shots as Wall on per 100 possession basis so at least Beal/Porter would be allowed as many touches. Arenas also did set up his teammates for open 3s, they simply took less because of the philosophy of the era vs today and that there wasn't as much of an emphasis on 3s. For instance, someone like Caron Butler would have worked much more on his 3 point shot rather than his patented mid range jumper. Plus Jamison/Hayes weren't exactly great 3 point shooters.

Imo the modern era comp would be a rich man's James Harden. Harden is a good playmaker but he's not a real PG (Arenas didn't have elite court vision but it was above average), he's actually a WORSE 3pt shooter than Arenas but he just takes the shot more, and he's not nearly as explosive.

Brooks would have to tweak his system a bit but I could absolutely see Arenas have the same kind of offensive impact as Steph (he'll make up the difference in 3pt efficiency with FTR, and honestly Arenas was kind of a proto-Steph to begin with) won't does. Think 35/10/6 on north of .600% TS%. In fact you could even experiment with a GSW-style death lineup as follows:

Arenas
Beal
Oubre
Sato
Porter

Honestly I'm not knocking Wall who is def on HOF pace but Arenas basically looked like a top 20-30 ATG player for us until he got hurt and he wasn't even truly "prime" yet.

I don't know about "rich man's James Harden"..what's rich man about it? He'd basically be on similar level to Harden. But with less playmaking ability, you can't ignore that Harden has better passing instincts than Gil did

[leswizards]

Just for fun combining both those teams (06-07 with 16-17)

PG- Wall, Daniels
SG- Arenas, Beal, Stevenson
SF- Butler, Bogdonovic
PF- Porter, Jamison, Morris
C- Gortat, Haywood

Not really all that much better than our current squad, IMO. Other than the depth of the 2nd unit, of course.

Just give me our current squad and replace Jennings with Arenas and we'd do just as well.

I so disagree. The combined squad would be favorite to win the title.

can you imagine Wall streaking with Beal in the left corner and Areanas in the right? PICK YOUR SURFACE OF THE SUN!

You could sit Wall or Beal and Gil could run either the point or 2 effectively with the "second" unit.

Our small ball would be Wall, Beal, Gil, Butler and Jamison... Death Line UP!

The Defensive unit... Butler and... and...well we could play good team defense...

I agree with you, but I look at the second unit, and I think no thank you having Bogdonovic next to Jamison. Replace Bogdonovic with Oubre, and every thing looks better.

[nate33]

Butler/Jamison/Hughes/Stevenson/Jeffries/Dixon essentially had career years in Washington. A combination of Gilbert Arenas and Eddie Jordan's offense.

BTW, I suspect Arenas would be even more efficient with Beal/Porter and for that matter Washington's current starting 5. Arenas took about as many shots as Wall on per 100 possession basis so at least Beal/Porter would be allowed as many touches. Arenas also did set up his teammates for open 3s, they simply took less because of the philosophy of the era vs today and that there wasn't as much of an emphasis on 3s. For instance, someone like Caron Butler would have worked much more on his 3 point shot rather than his patented mid range jumper. Plus Jamison/Hayes weren't exactly great 3 point shooters.

Imo the modern era comp would be a rich man's James Harden. Harden is a good playmaker but he's not a real PG (Arenas didn't have elite court vision but it was above average), he's actually a WORSE 3pt shooter than Arenas but he just takes the shot more, and he's not nearly as explosive.

Brooks would have to tweak his system a bit but I could absolutely see Arenas have the same kind of offensive impact as Steph (he'll make up the difference in 3pt efficiency with FTR, and honestly Arenas was kind of a proto-Steph to begin with) won't does. Think 35/10/6 on north of .600% TS%. In fact you could even experiment with a GSW-style death lineup as follows:

Arenas
Beal
Oubre
Sato
Porter

Honestly I'm not knocking Wall who is def on HOF pace but Arenas basically looked like a top 20-30 ATG player for us until he got hurt and he wasn't even truly "prime" yet.

I think Harden is an apt comparison for Arenas, but I think you are overstating it to say that Arenas is a "rich man's" Harden. Indeed, it would be more accurate to state that Arenas was a poor man's Harden. Harden is better at drawing fouls than Arenas ever was. Arenas was aggressive at driving to the basket, but not nearly as crafty as Harden in seeking out contact from outstretched arms. Harden scores more, assists more, and rebounds better on a per possession basis, with a higher ORtg.

And Arenas wasn't any better of a 3-point shooter than Harden. They're both excellent shooters with 3P% that are skewed low because of their ridiculous number of 3-point attempts off the dribble. Over his 3 year peak, Arenas averaged .361 from 3 point range on 9 attempts per 100 possessions. Over the last 3 years, Harden has averaged .359 of 10.6 attempts per 100 possessions. If anything, Harden might be a bit better if you assume each of his marginal shot attempts is coming under greater defensive pressure.

Arenas was good but you are romanticizing him a bit. He wasn't THAT good. He definitely wasn't a top 20-30 all time great. At the time, he was considered roughly the 10th best player in the game. He made two All-NBA 3rd teams and one All-NBA 2nd team. He essentially had 3 years that weren't quite as good as Isaiah Thomas this year. (Thomas averages 42 points per 100 possessions with an ORtg of 122. Arenas averaged 37 per 100 with an ORtg of 115, albeit with more actual minutes played and slightly better D.)

[nate33]

Just for fun combining both those teams (06-07 with 16-17)

PG- Wall, Daniels
SG- Arenas, Beal, Stevenson
SF- Butler, Bogdonovic
PF- Porter, Jamison, Morris
C- Gortat, Haywood

Not really all that much better than our current squad, IMO. Other than the depth of the 2nd unit, of course.

Just give me our current squad and replace Jennings with Arenas and we'd do just as well.

I so disagree. The combined squad would be favorite to win the title.

can you imagine Wall streaking with Beal in the left corner and Areanas in the right? PICK YOUR SURFACE OF THE SUN!

You could sit Wall or Beal and Gil could run either the point or 2 effectively with the "second" unit.

Our small ball would be Wall, Beal, Gil, Butler and Jamison... Death Line UP!

The Defensive unit... Butler and... and...well we could play good team defense...

You really only need to go 8-deep in the playoffs. Our current team, plus Arenas, would look something like this:

PG Wall/Arenas
SG Arenas/Beal
SF Porter/Oubre
PF Morris/Bodganovic
C Gortat/Mahinmi

What's better about your team? The backcourt is the same (Daniels doesn't play at all behind Wall and Arenas). The centers are the same (Mahinmi and Haywood are essentially the same player). The only difference is at forward. You have Butler, Porter and Jamison as your primary rotation players, with Porter playing out of position at PF. That's a lot of offense, but do we really need it on a team with such an insane backcourt? I'd be just as happy with Morris' defensive versatility in the starting lineup.