Political Roundtable Part XII
Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2017 3:46 pm
Continued from here
nate33 wrote:Good post, FAH1223. I agree that the decline of the dollar as the world's currency is the 800 pound gorilla in the room. The fantasy foreign policy where the U.S. can strongarm countries to get whatever it wants, wherever it wants has come to an end. Perennial war in the Middle East is no longer possible. Military threats against Russia are now insane. Picking and choosing the regimes to run various Middle Eastern countries is no longer feasible.
It'll be interesting to see how things shake out under Trump. On one hand, Trump has expressed reservations about the U.S. meddling overseas, including the Middle East, NATO and even Japan. He seems like he wants to scale back our commitments, or at least demand better compensation for them. On the other hand, he talks really tough about ISIS, and it seems like the Jewish support he gets in his administration are from the more Zionistic, Israeli-nationalist end of the spectrum. Is that a hint that he will sacrifice American blood and treasure in defense of Israel? That would presumably embroil us in more Middle Eastern wars.
During the primary, Trump boasted about self-funding. During the general, he got money from Sheldon Adelson who was backing Rubio mainly. The language on Israel has become nauseating and its become more extreme in both parties who are essentially defending an extreme right wing government that has moved on from a two state solution. You'll see the next administration turn a blind eye to the Palestinians (not that Obama or Bush did much anyway) and the facts on the ground dictate a one state solution is the only way to end the conflict. The annexation of the West Bank will continue and basically every country in the world will be calling them out on it. The US Embassy moving to Jerusalem might actually happen and no doubt that will have a reaction from the Palestinians both peaceful and violent.
In terms of the region, I think Trump really wants to coordinate to fight ISIS in Syria with Russia. There's very little coordination and very little the US has been doing. A recording of John Kerry to the Syrian opposition basically had him admit to him that we saw ISIS grow in Eastern Syria and that we thought their prescense would force Assad to negotiate. Well, Assad called Putin and the Russians deployed more of their men to their naval base, put in anti-air defense systems, and Kerry admitted this - started fighting ISIS as well as the Syrian opposition groups which have increasingly ceded a lot of control to Al-Qaeda's affiliate (Jabhat Fatah Al Sham in Aleppo, Idlib, and the Damascus outskirts). If the US and Russia coordinate it'll make things easier to fight ISIS. Right now, Turkish troops are on the ground with the Syrian rebels they support in Northern Syria (Russia has been providing air support recently which has been interesting) and they're fighting ISIS there. In the East, the Syrian army with its airforce along with Russia have been fighting ISIS in the city of Deir Ezzor and the ancient city Palmyra. However back in September, the US bombed Syrian forces in Deir Ezzor which killed 60 Syrian soldiers... while they were fighting ISIS. And it only stopped after the Russians got in contact and said WTF are you doing. So, more coordination has to be in play. The peace talks in Kazakhstan are also about to be in play and the US was sidelined from it but it could enter the fray with the new administration.
I don't think much will change with NATO. The Russians are obviously pissed about it being ever more closer on its border. Mattis and Tillerson have said the US will keep its word with the Baltics. Ukraine also is a big issue... Trump isn't crazy about arming the government but his party hawks are.
East Asia will be interesting. North Korea is a bargaining chip by China. It is 100% dependent on Chinese aid, and the Chinese can make it collapse at will. This is another carrot and stick approach they're doing but towards South Korea and to a lesser extent Japan.
The premise is basically: You want reunification like east and west Germany? Ditch the US bases.
South Korea already has a modern military that is equal to Turkey right now and does not need US troops in the first place. US bases are a form of control over our vassals. Countries with the largest bases like Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea are not fully independent.
The Kuril Islands is an example. A couple weeks ago, Putin was in Japan. Both he and Abe were talking of strengthening economic ties. The Islands have been controlled by Moscow since the end of WWII. Japan wants them back. Reading between the lines Putin is basically like hmm no thanks, not right now, perhaps in the future. Handing it over now is basically giving it to the US.
