Do we have a legit shot at the title?

20MexicanosIn1Van · Post #1 » by **20MexicanosIn1Van** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 6:55 pm

Underdogs do win sometimes! Remember the 2011 Mavericks where everyone knew they were pretty good, but were able to surpass anyone's expectations by gelling at the right time, sheer willpower, and a great supporting cast.

538 has us at a 7% chance of winning the title (third highest in the league)! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

What do you think, do we have a legit shot?

Post #2 » by **nate33** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:13 pm

7% sounds about right. We'd definitely have to regain the defensive form we displayed in January, but if we combined that with the offense we've shown lately and the bench depth from Bojan, Mahinmi and Jennings; then we'd have a chance.

My biggest concern is the Cavs. I don't think we have anybody that can remotely match up with playoff Lebron.

Post #3 » by **nate33** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:15 pm

20MexicanosIn1Van wrote:Underdogs do win sometimes! Remember the 2011 Mavericks where everyone knew they were pretty good, but were able to surpass anyone's expectations by gelling at the right time, sheer willpower, and a great supporting cast.

538 has us at a 7% chance of winning the title (third highest in the league)! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

What do you think, do we have a legit shot?

Interesting that it gives us better odds than the Cavs (4%), and MUCH better odds than Toronto (2%). Hell, the Heat have the same odds as Toronto.

Meliorus · Post #4 » by **Meliorus** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:24 pm

nate33 wrote:
20MexicanosIn1Van wrote:Underdogs do win sometimes! Remember the 2011 Mavericks where everyone knew they were pretty good, but were able to surpass anyone's expectations by gelling at the right time, sheer willpower, and a great supporting cast.

538 has us at a 7% chance of winning the title (third highest in the league)! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

What do you think, do we have a legit shot?

Interesting that it gives us better odds than the Cavs (4%), and MUCH better odds than Toronto (2%). Hell, the Heat have the same odds as Toronto.

You can't have much faith in Toronto. A rusty Lowry is a recipe for a first round exit.

20MexicanosIn1Van · Post #5 » by **20MexicanosIn1Van** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 7:52 pm

nate33 wrote:7% sounds about right. We'd definitely have to regain the defensive form we displayed in January, but if we combined that with the offense we've shown lately and the bench depth from Bojan, Mahinmi and Jennings; then we'd have a chance.

My biggest concern is the Cavs. I don't think we have anybody that can remotely match up with playoff Lebron.

Agreed on Lebron. The best defender against Lebron is a slew of perimeter defenders. We can throw Otto, Oubre, and maybe Kieff at him and that's definitely not going to be enough.

queridiculo · Post #6 » by **queridiculo** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:10 pm

Some Ji level jinxes with these threads.

TGW · Post #7 » by **TGW** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:15 pm

BigA · Post #8 » by **BigA** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:30 pm

I would say a very long shot, not a "legit" shot. But I've been very wrong about this team so far.

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #9 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:37 pm

Why not?

Trump is President and the Wizards (that's the Washington Wizards!) have gone from 2-8 to approaching 50 wins.

I think our biggest obstacle is the NBA hierarchy/pecking order.

We're a little psyched out by the Cavs and the refs will not make it easy to beat them.

If we can make a deep run this year and come back whole and cooking next year, we'd be better positioned to challenge the hierarchy.

Mojo Amok · Post #10 » by **Mojo Amok** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:40 pm

Wow, just checked and the Cavs actually have the worst ranked defense since the All-Star break, aside from being 22nd on the season. :lol:

I wonder what the best post-season performance of any team ranked 22nd or worse in regular season defense is?

I'm sure they have another gear and all and I'm not saying the Wizards are the team that will exploit it, but it's hard to imagine that those issues don't linger; There's been much mightier 800 pound gorillas for Dark Horses to overcome in the past.

verbal8 · Post #11 » by **verbal8** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:32 pm

nate33 wrote:
20MexicanosIn1Van wrote:Underdogs do win sometimes! Remember the 2011 Mavericks where everyone knew they were pretty good, but were able to surpass anyone's expectations by gelling at the right time, sheer willpower, and a great supporting cast.

538 has us at a 7% chance of winning the title (third highest in the league)! https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

What do you think, do we have a legit shot?

Interesting that it gives us better odds than the Cavs (4%), and MUCH better odds than Toronto (2%). Hell, the Heat have the same odds as Toronto.

I think the chance of the Wizards winning it all is in the mid single digits - 7% might be a little generous, but it doesn't seem way off. I do think the Cavs have a much better shot than 4%. I think almost anyone would take a bet of $4 to win $100 on a Cavs championship. I think odds on the Warriors might be a little low. I think the Western conference having a 75% chance is about right. The Cavs should be the most likely Eastern Conference team to win the finals. If they have 13% and the Heat are a 2% long-shot, 5% each for the Celtics/Wizards sounds about right.

FAH1223 · Post #12 » by **FAH1223** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:48 pm

No chance.

No one in the East is beating LeBron as long as he's at the level he's at. Plus, he has Kyrie who makes impossible shots time and time again.

Wizards probably would lose in the 2nd round to Boston as they'd get the favorable calls due to their tradition and the league wanting Boston in the Conference Finals.

stevemcqueen1 · Post #13 » by **stevemcqueen1** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:34 pm

We can beat Cleveland. We wouldn't be favorites, but we wouldn't be huge underdogs. Our chance at winning it all really depends on the health of San Antonio's and Golden State's best players. If Durant isn't back, Golden State is beatable. If Aldridge isn't playing, beating San Antonio is more realistic. But they would still be heavy favorites.

sfam · Post #14 » by **sfam** » Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:43 pm

7% sounds great to me. That may be the percentage chance that Lebron gets hurt and Durant doesn't come back at full strength.

FAH1223 · Post #15 » by **FAH1223** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:33 am

sfam wrote:7% sounds great to me. That may be the percentage chance that Lebron gets hurt and Durant doesn't come back at full strength.

In that scenario, the Spurs win the title. I imagine Aldridge will be back by the postseason.

prime1time · Post #16 » by **prime1time** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:43 am

I think the reality right now is that we really don't know what we have. The post season is a completely different animal than the regular season. If this team comes out and plays there best basketball then the answer is yes we have a chance. The Wizards are a very tough team to guard given that we have multiple players who can shoot three's, put the ball on the floor, finish at the rim and are willing passers. If we bring defensive intensity in the playoffs other teams will have a very hard time against us. With that said, no one should discount LeBron James in the east. It is his conference, and any path forward for the Wiz goes through him.

Ultimately, we just have to sit back, watch and let time run its course. If everything goes as planned, it is going to come down to how our Stars play when the light shines brightest.

gambitx777 · Post #17 » by **gambitx777** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:49 am

All it take is LeBrons age to show, a injury, or for chemistry to fall apart, and the cavs are nothing. But, I think we have as good a chance as any. Its definitely a good window for us and I don't think that GS is all that unstoppable. I would be more afraid of the Spurs.

payitforward · Post #18 » by **payitforward** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:22 am

I don't remember ever being quite so wrong about anything as I have been about this Wizards season. So maybe it's not a good thing that I write this, but if the playoffs started tonight, with us in 2d position, I'd say we'd have as good odds as Cleveland to win the East.

I'd assume Cleveland would play Boston in the 2d round, while we'd play Toronto - which looks like a much easier series.

Boston might beat Cleveland. At least, if it's a tough series, they'd be likely to wear them down some. We'd have a solid chance in the ECF vs. Cleveland. If it were Boston, it'd be a tough series, but we'd have home court advantage & the edge.

As to the Finals vs. GS or SA w/ 4 games on the opponent's court...? Hard to see us winning, but one injury or one hot streak by a player on our team, and it could happen.

But... the playoffs don't start tonight. We don't have 2d seed wrapped up -- & it's key to our chances. So we have to take care of business the rest of the way in. For starters, we need a victory vs. Minny tonight. Then, we need to win out at home -- or at least go 5-1 -- we've got 6 home games left, & it's not a hard schedule.

On the road, we need to beat the lesser teams we face. Vs. the Hornets, Lakers, Knicks, Pistons & Heat -- we have to win 4 of those games, or at least 3. & it would be great to take 1 of the tough games at the Clips/GS/Utah.

But, the biggest games are obvious: the 2 road games vs. Cleveland & Boston. If those 2 games were in the books now, as victories, we'd be 1 game out of first place in the East, & we'd have Boston in our rear view mirror.

In fact, the above scenario would result in 11-13 more wins. I'd say 54 wins is enough to take the East, & wouldn't that be nice. Got my fingers & toes crossed -- hell I've got my eyes crossed!

Start w/ a win tonight!

Tricky_Kid · Post #19 » by **Tricky_Kid** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:24 am

Detroit Pistons winning with Larry Brown vs packed with stars Lakers. Everything is possible

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20MexicanosIn1Van · Post #20 » by **20MexicanosIn1Van** » Mon Mar 13, 2017 12:47 pm

payitforward wrote:I don't remember ever being quite so wrong about anything as I have been about this Wizards season. So maybe it's not a good thing that I write this, but if the playoffs started tonight, with us in 2d position, I'd say we'd have as good odds as Cleveland to win the East.

I'd assume Cleveland would play Boston in the 2d round, while we'd play Toronto - which looks like a much easier series.

Boston might beat Cleveland. At least, if it's a tough series, they'd be likely to wear them down some. We'd have a solid chance in the ECF vs. Cleveland. If it were Boston, it'd be a tough series, but we'd have home court advantage & the edge.

As to the Finals vs. GS or SA w/ 4 games on the opponent's court...? Hard to see us winning, but one injury or one hot streak by a player on our team, and it could happen.

But... the playoffs don't start tonight. We don't have 2d seed wrapped up -- & it's key to our chances. So we have to take care of business the rest of the way in. For starters, we need a victory vs. Minny tonight. Then, we need to win out at home -- or at least go 5-1 -- we've got 6 home games left, & it's not a hard schedule.

On the road, we need to beat the lesser teams we face. Vs. the Hornets, Lakers, Knicks, Pistons & Heat -- we have to win 4 of those games, or at least 3. & it would be great to take 1 of the tough games at the Clips/GS/Utah.

But, the biggest games are obvious: the 2 road games vs. Cleveland & Boston. If those 2 games were in the books now, as victories, we'd be 1 game out of first place in the East, & we'd have Boston in our rear view mirror.

In fact, the above scenario would result in 11-13 more wins. I'd say 54 wins is enough to take the East, & wouldn't that be nice. Got my fingers & toes crossed -- hell I've got my eyes crossed!

Start w/ a win tonight!

We're playing BOS in the second round. In order to play Toronto, we'd have to drop 3.5 games in the remaining 17 games to the Lowry-less Raptors.