NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 4

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Reminds me a lot of Tony Bennett’s pack line defense.

You don’t need extraordinary athletes, just good coaching and an organizational commitment to it.

Really wish we had more than a mediocrity as a head coach.

[Kanyewest]

Former Wizard House with the steal.

[Ruzious]

Former Wizard House with the steal.

House fits really well with Houston's offense.

I watched the Htn/Mil game last night trying to figure out Milwaukee's D. They give up the most 3's in the NBA and yet... they have the best rated D in the NBA. They do pack the middle more than other teams - limiting layups and fouls/free throws - basically zoning. It helps when you have a PF like Giannis, and it's the best way to use Lopez - so he doesn't have to move out to the perimeter. But it leads to a lot of 3's given up. With Bledsoe, Hill, and DDV, they have guards that focus on defense and prevent dribble penetration. Notice Boston's guards do the same. Our guards don't - but it could change if Wall and Beal change their focuses.

I wonder if the Wiz get Okongwu - can he play similarly to how Giannis plays defense - not as a center - but as a 2nd big helping primarily inside.

[doclinkin]

I watched the Htn/Mil game last night trying to figure out Milwaukee's D. They give up the most 3's in the NBA and yet... they have the best rated D in the NBA.

What I've been banging on about for a while: Rebounding. High percentage scoring at the other end. Control the pace.

It is also how Toronto won.

In a high possession game you can win with 3's. But there will be more misses. The 3 is a streaky strategy. When it is on it is deadly but even the best teams find at some point it goes cold. So scoring 50% on 2 pts is more reliable than 33.3% on threes. If you miss 2/3rd of the time you are leaving a lot of balls out there for the other team to take.

If you siphon every rebound and score at the other end every trip down the floor, even with high percentage 2's, you can control the pace. You can starve them of chances to go on a run with those 3's banged in from sniper range if you dont foul, protect the lane, grab the loose ball, score methodically. You value every rebound and every possession and squeeze them out of the game. Kawhi and his ridiculous 2pt% from midrange and in proved deadly to the streakier outside gunning teams.

To my way of thinking: let the new breed of Bigs shoot from outside. But rebound those misses no matter what and protect the lane from drives, since those also give up FT's for free points and stop the clock to allow for extra possessions.

We are still inputting the Warriors offense here, but the metagame has moved on to what is next.

[Zonkerbl]

Is this thread where we discuss Zion?

I watched the first game and they *definitely* lost that game because Zion wasn't in the game during crunch time.

But why risk injuring your ten year starting all star player in a meaningless season? Meaningless in the sense that if you kill yourselves you get an 8th seed.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/03/zion-williamsons-minutes-drama-is-reaching-a-breaking-point/

[Ruzious]

I watched the Htn/Mil game last night trying to figure out Milwaukee's D. They give up the most 3's in the NBA and yet... they have the best rated D in the NBA.

What I've been banging on about for a while: Rebounding. High percentage scoring at the other end. Control the pace.

It is also how Toronto won.

In a high possession game you can win with 3's. But there will be more misses. The 3 is a streaky strategy. When it is on it is deadly but even the best teams find at some point it goes cold. So scoring 50% on 2 pts is more reliable than 33.3% on threes. If you miss 2/3rd of the time you are leaving a lot of balls out there for the other team to take.

If you siphon every rebound and score at the other end every trip down the floor, even with high percentage 2's, you can control the pace. You can starve them of chances to go on a run with those 3's banged in from sniper range if you dont foul, protect the lane, grab the loose ball, score methodically. You value every rebound and every possession and squeeze them out of the game. Kawhi and his ridiculous 2pt% from midrange and in proved deadly to the streakier outside gunning teams.

To my way of thinking: let the new breed of Bigs shoot from outside. But rebound those misses no matter what and protect the lane from drives, since those also give up FT's for free points and stop the clock to allow for extra possessions.

We are still inputting the Warriors offense here, but the metagame has moved on to what is next.

So would Houston be better slinging a Capela or by going with small forwards playing center? Or does having a uniquely unconventional player like Westbrook with the great Harden and 12 3 point shooters allow them to get away with their faults? I think it'll always end up with them being in the show but coming up a bit short at the end. Will Mike D'Antoni ever win it all?

[Kanyewest]

Is this thread where we discuss Zion?

I watched the first game and they *definitely* lost that game because Zion wasn't in the game during crunch time.

But why risk injuring your ten year starting all star player in a meaningless season? Meaningless in the sense that if you kill yourselves you get an 8th seed.

https://nypost.com/2020/08/03/zion-williamsons-minutes-drama-is-reaching-a-breaking-point/

Yeah, you rest Zion but it is a win-win situation in the sense that they get a slightly better pick (only a 5.7% chance to move into the top 4). By that logic, it makes sense for most teams in the West to tank except for the Grizzlies who already owe their pick to the Celtics. Although some think that Portland could make a run at the Lakers, it is hard to envision it without a 3 & D guy like Ariza sitting out.

[Kanyewest]

I watched the Htn/Mil game last night trying to figure out Milwaukee's D. They give up the most 3's in the NBA and yet... they have the best rated D in the NBA.

What I've been banging on about for a while: Rebounding. High percentage scoring at the other end. Control the pace.

It is also how Toronto won.

In a high possession game you can win with 3's. But there will be more misses. The 3 is a streaky strategy. When it is on it is deadly but even the best teams find at some point it goes cold. So scoring 50% on 2 pts is more reliable than 33.3% on threes. If you miss 2/3rd of the time you are leaving a lot of balls out there for the other team to take.

If you siphon every rebound and score at the other end every trip down the floor, even with high percentage 2's, you can control the pace. You can starve them of chances to go on a run with those 3's banged in from sniper range if you dont foul, protect the lane, grab the loose ball, score methodically. You value every rebound and every possession and squeeze them out of the game. Kawhi and his ridiculous 2pt% from midrange and in proved deadly to the streakier outside gunning teams.

To my way of thinking: let the new breed of Bigs shoot from outside. But rebound those misses no matter what and protect the lane from drives, since those also give up FT's for free points and stop the clock to allow for extra possessions.

We are still inputting the Warriors offense here, but the metagame has moved on to what is next.

So would Houston be better slinging a Capela or by going with small forwards playing center? Or does having a uniquely unconventional player like Westbrook with the great Harden and 12 3 point shooters allow them to get away with their faults? I think it'll always end up with them being in the show but coming up a bit short at the end. Will Mike D'Antoni ever win it all?

Bucks would have won if they played Donte in crunch time (I know he was -2 but they are clearly not contenders without him )

[Ruzious]

What I've been banging on about for a while: Rebounding. High percentage scoring at the other end. Control the pace.

It is also how Toronto won.

In a high possession game you can win with 3's. But there will be more misses. The 3 is a streaky strategy. When it is on it is deadly but even the best teams find at some point it goes cold. So scoring 50% on 2 pts is more reliable than 33.3% on threes. If you miss 2/3rd of the time you are leaving a lot of balls out there for the other team to take.

If you siphon every rebound and score at the other end every trip down the floor, even with high percentage 2's, you can control the pace. You can starve them of chances to go on a run with those 3's banged in from sniper range if you dont foul, protect the lane, grab the loose ball, score methodically. You value every rebound and every possession and squeeze them out of the game. Kawhi and his ridiculous 2pt% from midrange and in proved deadly to the streakier outside gunning teams.

To my way of thinking: let the new breed of Bigs shoot from outside. But rebound those misses no matter what and protect the lane from drives, since those also give up FT's for free points and stop the clock to allow for extra possessions.

We are still inputting the Warriors offense here, but the metagame has moved on to what is next.

So would Houston be better slinging a Capela or by going with small forwards playing center? Or does having a uniquely unconventional player like Westbrook with the great Harden and 12 3 point shooters allow them to get away with their faults? I think it'll always end up with them being in the show but coming up a bit short at the end. Will Mike D'Antoni ever win it all?

Bucks would have won if they played Donte in crunch time (I know he was -2 but they are clearly not contenders without him )

DDV had an awful game. If anything, I think the game showed how much they need Bledsoe. DDV turned the ball over way too much with bad long passes in half court and dribbled into trouble too much.

[doclinkin]

So would Houston be better slinging a Capela or by going with small forwards playing center? Or does having a uniquely unconventional player like Westbrook with the great Harden and 12 3 point shooters allow them to get away with their faults? I think it'll always end up with them being in the show but coming up a bit short at the end. Will Mike D'Antoni ever win it all?

I think a team can win with 5 rangy defensive 3&D small forwards that pass willingly. GSW has played with basically that plus Stef when they had Iggy on the team.

I think the Roxx can win only if they go on a hot streak that doesn't cool off. What would improve their team? Unibrow Davis, a complete 2-way front court player with range. But yeah, he would improve any team in the league. I do think they are stronger when they have a guy like Capela in the middle. But with Westbrook and Harden both needing room to drive, you need space on the interior. They could realistically run a hybrid of the D'antoni 7-seconds-or-less and the Calipari Dribble Drive Motion offense, that posts a big man on the weak side baseline to crash the glass after the ballhandlers drive or the outside players put the shot up. 4 out plus an active power forward or dominant Big. A healthy Boogie Cousins -- if he was not allowed to handle and shoot. Just dunk or pass. I do think they are missing some power in the interior. They are all in on the outside shot and are both living and dying by it.

[Kanyewest]

So would Houston be better slinging a Capela or by going with small forwards playing center? Or does having a uniquely unconventional player like Westbrook with the great Harden and 12 3 point shooters allow them to get away with their faults? I think it'll always end up with them being in the show but coming up a bit short at the end. Will Mike D'Antoni ever win it all?

Bucks would have won if they played Donte in crunch time (I know he was -2 but they are clearly not contenders without him )

DDV had an awful game. If anything, I think the game showed how much they need Bledsoe. DDV turned the ball over way too much with bad long passes in half court and dribbled into trouble too much.

Seriously yeah, that's probably true. He had 5 turnovers and had at least one ill-advised shot in the 4th quarter-although maybe he is still getting up to basketball speed.

I thought they should have re-signed Brogdon in the offseason although they are still playing really well so maybe they can do it with just Bledsoe/DiVincenzo and whatever they got for Brogdon via that sign and trade.

I feel like the offense broke down in the end of the 4th because Middleton took some bad shots that lead to transition points in the 4th when the Rockets made their final run. I also think the Bucks got a bit complacent. I think they would beat the Rockets in a re-match although I do think the Raptors defense could maybe push the Bucks a bit. Of course, the Raptors trouble may be getting up enough points against the Bucks defense which is also one of the best in the league.

[dlts20]

JJJ just tore his meniscus and this is specifically why I said from jump that if Wall doesn't play then Beal shouldn't play because all we are doing is risking losing our lottery pick and a "serious injury to Beal" just to get blown out in 4 by the Bucks. At least triple J was playing for something. Can you imagine Beal getting a major injury in meaningless games. We would have been set back forever.... Lol

[payitforward]

I watched the Htn/Mil game last night trying to figure out Milwaukee's D. They give up the most 3's in the NBA and yet... they have the best rated D in the NBA.

What I've been banging on about for a while: Rebounding. High percentage scoring at the other end. Control the pace.

It is also how Toronto won.

In a high possession game you can win with 3's. But there will be more misses. The 3 is a streaky strategy. When it is on it is deadly but even the best teams find at some point it goes cold. So scoring 50% on 2 pts is more reliable than 33.3% on threes. If you miss 2/3rd of the time you are leaving a lot of balls out there for the other team to take.

If you siphon every rebound and score at the other end every trip down the floor, even with high percentage 2's, you can control the pace. You can starve them of chances to go on a run with those 3's banged in from sniper range if you dont foul, protect the lane, grab the loose ball, score methodically. You value every rebound and every possession and squeeze them out of the game. Kawhi and his ridiculous 2pt% from midrange and in proved deadly to the streakier outside gunning teams.

To my way of thinking: let the new breed of Bigs shoot from outside. But rebound those misses no matter what and protect the lane from drives, since those also give up FT's for free points and stop the clock to allow for extra possessions.

We are still inputting the Warriors offense here, but the metagame has moved on to what is next.

Bingo. Kudos to doc for making a point that most people don't even consider:

"..scoring 50% on 2 pts is more reliable than 33.3% on threes."

Just call it "better." Why? B/c it yields the same number of points, but the opposition gets fewer possessions off of rebounds -- rather than via taking the ball out under their own basket (those kinds of possessions lead to fewer point by them).

[doclinkin]

We are still inputting the Warriors offense here, but the metagame has moved on to what is next.

Bingo. Kudos to doc for making a point that most people don't even consider:

"..scoring 50% on 2 pts is more reliable than 33.3% on threes."

Just call it "better." Why? B/c it yields the same number of points, but the opposition gets fewer possessions off of rebounds -- rather than via taking the ball out under their own basket (those kinds of possessions lead to fewer point by them).

Sort the league records by defensive rebounding and 2pt% and see who shows up on the leaderboards for the past few years. Teams who have smart coaches and front office staff have figured out that only Golden State can be Golden, and there in large part because their defense was so stellar. Pace and space is a good weapon to have, but the counter is pretty traditional and easier to find a roster that can do it: fill the lanes, collect the boards.

Look at how gigantic the Lakers are right now. They have LeBJ running point for them. AD plays next to Dwight or JaVale.

Then consider the Wizards. We have been among league leaders in scoring and 3pt shooting and EFG% but it gets us nowhere. This is something I've been pecking at for some time now. The league is pitching 3FGs at an unconscionable rate. Those long bounces are opportunities for any team that knows to value them.

[wall_glizzy]

Sort the league records by defensive rebounding and 2pt% and see who shows up on the leaderboards for the past few years. Teams who have smart coaches and front office staff have figured out that only Golden State can be Golden, and there in large part because their defense was so stellar. Pace and space is a good weapon to have, but the counter is pretty traditional and easier to find a roster that can do it: fill the lanes, collect the boards.

Look at how gigantic the Lakers are right now. They have LeBJ running point for them. AD plays next to Dwight or JaVale.

Then consider the Wizards. We have been among league leaders in scoring and 3pt shooting and EFG% but it gets us nowhere. This is something I've been pecking at for some time now. The league is pitching 3FGs at an unconscionable rate. Those long bounces are opportunities for any team that knows to value them.

I think you might be introducing some (a lot of) noise here by reading into the 2FG% rankings by team. Yes, teams that miss fewer two-pointers tend to be pretty good, but that tells us nothing about how often they're taking them. The stat you want here is 2FG frequency, which is more of a mixed bag - just like team offensive rebounding, teams can have success both emphasizing and de-emphasizing that particular stat. Here's this year's ranking of teams by 2FG rate: https://stats.nba.com/teams/shots-general/?sort=FG2A_FREQUENCY&dir=1.

Also, I think this overstates how much we were letting shots fly - we were actually 21st in the league in 3FG rate, and our transition defense (22nd in both opportunities allowed per game and opponent PPP on those possessions) was actually quite a bit better relative to the rest of the league than was our overall defense, which was of course dead last.

It's not unheard of for bad teams to turn to chucking as their only hope of staying in games against superior opponents, but the larger issue with the NBA meta is that Moreyball is working a little too well - of this season's top ten teams in 3FG rate, eight made it to the bubble (seven - all but the Pelicans - within the usual top eight slots of each conference).

[doclinkin]

I think you might be introducing some (a lot of) noise here by reading into the 2FG% rankings by team. Yes, teams that miss fewer two-pointers tend to be pretty good, but that tells us nothing about how often they're taking them.

Talking defensive rebounding and 2fg% combined. Yes the 3pt FG is a nasty weapon. But you can control that weapon if you can limit the number of chances. Basically what we are talking about is fetishizing every possession. Especially in the playoffs.

Kawhi said it last year:

“I’m wondering after a game when you’re looking at a box score in this series, what are the stats you’re looking at that jump out to you to tell you that the team has played a good game?” a reporter asked.

“Looking at rebounds, turnovers and field-goal percentage for each team,” Leonard declared. “Obviously, points in the paint and just seeing what were the runs. That’s pretty much it. But the big three things that I look at are turnovers and rebounds and field-goal percentage.”

Granted if you are a team that hits that outside shot at a high rate you can stay in any game. Even poor teams can get streaky and go on a run if they pitch it up. It's simply a harder shot to hit. Teams like the Bucks are going large and rebounding like mad. Philly makes the playoffs without much outside shooting. The Raptors won by having fewer empty possessions each trip down the floor. Teams that shoot from outside can win the regular season. But its looking like teams that rebound and simply have fewer empty possessions are the ones that win the playoffs. And if you look at the teams that load up on 3FGs, the games where they get fewer possessions are the likely losses for them.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

[Endless Loop]

It's interesting that the scoring rate is up 9 ppg in the bubble. Bubble environment seems to particularly benefit some players- like T J Warren.

Is it possible that it's easier to shoot without a crowd waving towels, etc, behind the basket? And is it possible that some players benefit from the lack of distraction more than others?

I'm thinking this isn't just a small sample size effect, but instead it's something real.

Teams that adapt their tactics to the changed environment could have an advantage in the playoffs. Some teams will benefit more than others; there should probably be a shift in odds for who'll do well in the playoffs. Might even be worth a wager or two!

[doclinkin]

It's interesting that the scoring rate is up 9 ppg in the bubble. Bubble environment seems to particularly benefit some players- like T J Warren.

Is it possible that it's easier to shoot without a crowd waving towels, etc, behind the basket? And is it possible that some players benefit from the lack of distraction more than others?

I'm thinking this isn't just a small sample size effect, but instead it's something real.

Teams that adapt their tactics to the changed environment could have an advantage in the playoffs. Some teams will benefit more than others; there should probably be a shift in odds for who'll do well in the playoffs. Might even be worth a wager or two!

Maybe. I think it’s more likely that the time off outside of a gym environment leads to poorer conditioning. Defense takes effort. You can practice shooting at a hoop by yourself. You can’t practice team defense. So yeah. Fair if you want to bet the ‘over’ on every time got now. But if all next season were in a bubble I expect the numbers would even out. I forget the studies but I think Home advantage was limited to something like a one possession difference. With that eliminated I don’t know that each team would get a +4.5 bump. But maybe.