NBA Games Discussion Thread - Part 4

[tontoz]

Kawhi is like a basketball cyborg. It is really amazing that he keeps on putting up numbers like this.

15 of their last 18 points.

[closg00]

Looking forward to the Bucks vs GSW finals. Go Bucks!

Watch on YouTube

I just want someone to give GSW a helluva battles

[Dat2U]

Read on Twitter

This is a great point. Often times we make determinations about a player based on regular season performance. When we refer to players stats, we only focus on their regular season stats.

But if the goal of any franchise is to win in the playoffs and eventually win a title, then shouldn't we be putting a much bigger emphasis on playoff performance?

[payitforward]

1. Obviously, the playoffs are more important than the regular season. Hence, how a guy plays in the playoffs is more important than how he plays in the regular season. Only one problem...

2. ...Remind me. How do you get to the playoffs? Oh yeah... you have to win a lot of games. & how do you win a lot of games? You play well in the regular season. So... should we get guys on our team who don't play well in the regular season? Gee... I guess not, huh? Oh, and one other problem...

3. ...Tell me, something: do guys who play bad in the regular season tend to play well in the playoffs? They don't? Oh. & tell me, do guys who play well in the playoffs tend to play badly in the regular season? Is that what Paul Pierce did, since that's who Meyers chose as the poster boy for his point? He didn't, you say? He played well in both. Oh, okay, that's good. But, gosh, here's another problem....

4. ...Don't teams that do well in the regular season tend to do better in the playoffs than teams that don't do well in the regular season? Gee, I guess that's true, isn't it? So, maybe, in all, regular season basketball & playoff basketball really can't be "two different games." In fact, maybe what Bob Meyers is saying is an enormous over-statement! Given that when you compare it to the obvious realities we all can see, & it doesn't look anything like like those realities -- with the occasional exception of course -- maybe we ought to discount a little of his certainty.

Yeah, lets do that. Especially since what he's doing, basically, is praising his own team.

Doesn't mean there's nothing to it. Just means there ain't nearly as much to it as he'd like you to believe.

[tontoz]

Getting to the basket/foul line is harder in the playoffs. Guys who rely heavily on both, like Harden and Giannis, can find it hard to reproduce the numbers they put up in the regular season.

Getting good looks from 3 is also harder in the playoffs. How many times have we seen teams continue shooting bricks from 3 no matter how many they miss.

Midrange shots go up in value. A big part of Kawhi's success in the playoffs has been midrange shooting.

[miller31time]

Midrange shots go up in value. A big part of Kawhi's success in the playoffs has been midrange shooting.

This is a great point and explains why Beal (in past years) has performed better in the playoffs than the regular season. Excluding this past season, we’ve always been so frustrated with his tendency to put up mid-range shots but I specifically remember the series against Chicago where he was absolutely phenomenal and a lot of that success was due to the Bulls taking away our 3pt opportunities and Beal doing what he did best.

[Dat2U]

1. Obviously, the playoffs are more important than the regular season. Hence, how a guy plays in the playoffs is more important than how he plays in the regular season. Only one problem...

2. ...Remind me. How do you get to the playoffs? Oh yeah... you have to win a lot of games. & how do you win a lot of games? You play well in the regular season. So... should we get guys on our team who don't play well in the regular season? Gee... I guess not, huh? Oh, and one other problem...

3. ...Tell me, something: do guys who play bad in the regular season tend to play well in the playoffs? They don't? Oh. & tell me, do guys who play well in the playoffs tend to play badly in the regular season? Is that what Paul Pierce did, since that's who Meyers chose as the poster boy for his point? He didn't, you say? He played well in both. Oh, okay, that's good. But, gosh, here's another problem....

4. ...Don't teams that do well in the regular season tend to do better in the playoffs than teams that don't do well in the regular season? Gee, I guess that's true, isn't it? So, maybe, in all, regular season basketball & playoff basketball really can't be "two different games." In fact, maybe what Bob Meyers is saying is an enormous over-statement! Given that when you compare it to the obvious realities we all can see, & it doesn't look anything like like those realities -- with the occasional exception of course -- maybe we ought to discount a little of his certainty.

Yeah, lets do that. Especially since what he's doing, basically, is praising his own team.

Doesn't mean there's nothing to it. Just means there ain't nearly as much to it as he'd like you to believe.

Here's an example of this theory in practice: If we were a likely playoff team, it makes more sense to sign a skilled offensive player like Jeff Green vs a energy/effort guy like Sam Dekker at the backup PF position because Green's offensive utility translates well to postseason play while a guy like Dekker is becomes worthless because everyone is now playing with the same energy he had all regular season.

You say Dekker contributes more to wins, I say Green is far more valuable in a 7 game playoff series.

[Dat2U]

Midrange shots go up in value. A big part of Kawhi's success in the playoffs has been midrange shooting.

This is a great point and explains why Beal (in past years) has performed better in the playoffs than the regular season. Excluding this past season, we’ve always been so frustrated with his tendency to put up mid-range shots but I specifically remember the series against Chicago where he was absolutely phenomenal and a lot of that success was due to the Bulls taking away our 3pt opportunities and Beal doing what he did best.

Yep and come to think about it, Wall's best playoff moments came when he was knocking down the midrange... he could literally get that shot on every possession.

[nate33]

Kawhi has basically become a slightly more turnover prone Michael Jordan. He can get off a high percentage midrange shot whenever he wants, and he gets to the free throw line often. Kawhi is shooting an absolutely ridiculous 55% on long 2's in the playoffs.

Basically, other than a turnover, the worst outcome in any Toronto possession is Kawhi shooting a 55% long 2. It's not fair. Not only is that efficient offense, but it helps with transition defense because there are few long bounces. Also, it helps Toronto dictate pace because they can shoot whenever they want to within the shot clock.

[nate33]

Midrange shots go up in value. A big part of Kawhi's success in the playoffs has been midrange shooting.

This is a great point and explains why Beal (in past years) has performed better in the playoffs than the regular season. Excluding this past season, we’ve always been so frustrated with his tendency to put up mid-range shots but I specifically remember the series against Chicago where he was absolutely phenomenal and a lot of that success was due to the Bulls taking away our 3pt opportunities and Beal doing what he did best.

And I think Beal will get even better going forward. His game has become so diversified that you can't take it all away. He can get to the rim off the bounce, get to the line, hit from midrange, run pick-and-roll, or do the work off the ball to come off screens. He's the exact kind of guy Bob Myers was talking about.

[FAH1223]

Kawhi has basically become a slightly more turnover prone Michael Jordan. He can get off a high percentage midrange shot whenever he wants, and he gets to the free throw line often. Kawhi is shooting an absolutely ridiculous 55% on long 2's in the playoffs.

Basically, other than a turnover, the worst outcome in any Toronto possession is Kawhi shooting a 55% long 2. It's not fair. Not only is that efficient offense, but it helps with transition defense because there are few long bounces. Also, it helps Toronto dictate pace because they can shoot whenever they want to within the shot clock.

Kawhi’s championship pedigree really is rubbing off on the Raptors.

Toronto defensively has been really good too.

They’ve got more than a shot to beat the Warriors.

[Dat2U]

Warriors in 6. Outside of Kawhi the Raps not built for this moment. Curry gets his first finals MVP.

[nate33]

Warriors in 6. Outside of Kawhi the Raps not built for this moment. Curry gets his first finals MVP.

I don't think the Warriors can win if both Durant and Iggy are out. There's just not enough guys who can defend Kawhi and be a threat to score on offense. If they had a Harrison Barnes caliber forward to replace Durant, it would be one thing. But they've got nobody.

If Iggy plays, I think it's a toss-up. Iggy will probably only be at 85% and the Warriors will still be without adequate floor-spacers outside of Curry and Klay. They managed to pull it off against Portland, but they will struggle offensively against Toronto's superior defensive personnel. Defensively, having Iggy around to help Klay defend Kawhi will make a big difference. Take Kawhi out and the rest of the Raptors won't score much.

If Durant and Iggy both play, it's Warriors in 5.

[tontoz]

[Illuminaire]

If Iggy plays, I think it's a toss-up. Iggy will probably only be at 85% and the Warriors will still be without adequate floor-spacers outside of Curry and Klay. They managed to pull it off against Portland, but they will struggle offensively against Toronto's superior defensive personnel.

Hmm. I think Toronto's defensive strengths are mainly wings and bigs. They were able to squeak by the 76ers and suffocate the Bucks primarily because both of those team's offensive fulcrums were running straight into Toronto's best defenders. And neither of those teams could rain 3s from 35 feet. Or 28 feet, for that matter. Hell, they struggled from the corner...

Toronto doesn't have a great solution for Curry. If they put Leonard on him, that pulls their best overall defender (and rebounder!) away from the basket and allows GS' secondary playmakers to create miss-matches. If they put anyone else on him, he may score 35 every night.

I agree that GS is vulnerable if Iggy is out, but all signs point to him being fine to play right now. If he goes down, or re-injures himself a few games in... that will probably be too late for Toronto. Don't forget that Kawhi has been fighting injuries this post-season too, and they've been getting worse each round.

[FAH1223]

If Iggy plays, I think it's a toss-up. Iggy will probably only be at 85% and the Warriors will still be without adequate floor-spacers outside of Curry and Klay. They managed to pull it off against Portland, but they will struggle offensively against Toronto's superior defensive personnel.

Hmm. I think Toronto's defensive strengths are mainly wings and bigs. They were able to squeak by the 76ers and suffocate the Bucks primarily because both of those team's offensive fulcrums were running straight into Toronto's best defenders. And neither of those teams could rain 3s from 35 feet. Or 28 feet, for that matter. Hell, they struggled from the corner...

Toronto doesn't have a great solution for Curry. If they put Leonard on him, that pulls their best overall defender (and rebounder!) away from the basket and allows GS' secondary playmakers to create miss-matches. If they put anyone else on him, he may score 35 every night.

I agree that GS is vulnerable if Iggy is out, but all signs point to him being fine to play right now. If he goes down, or re-injures himself a few games in... that will probably be too late for Toronto. Don't forget that Kawhi has been fighting injuries this post-season too, and they've been getting worse each round.

Danny Green is still a good defender. But he has disappeared offensively.

[Kanyewest]

Midrange shots go up in value. A big part of Kawhi's success in the playoffs has been midrange shooting.

This is a great point and explains why Beal (in past years) has performed better in the playoffs than the regular season. Excluding this past season, we’ve always been so frustrated with his tendency to put up mid-range shots but I specifically remember the series against Chicago where he was absolutely phenomenal and a lot of that success was due to the Bulls taking away our 3pt opportunities and Beal doing what he did best.

Yep and come to think about it, Wall's best playoff moments came when he was knocking down the midrange... he could literally get that shot on every possession.

That being said, for Wall a key indicator for me is when Wall's 3 point shot is falling given his best postseason in 2016-17 especially against the Hawks. Especially since defenses are giving Wall that 3 point shot. In 2017 Wall shot 33.4%. Wall shot under 20% from in 2018 and 2015 (although he was playing with an injured wrist for part of that run).

[Kanyewest]

If Iggy plays, I think it's a toss-up. Iggy will probably only be at 85% and the Warriors will still be without adequate floor-spacers outside of Curry and Klay. They managed to pull it off against Portland, but they will struggle offensively against Toronto's superior defensive personnel.

Hmm. I think Toronto's defensive strengths are mainly wings and bigs. They were able to squeak by the 76ers and suffocate the Bucks primarily because both of those team's offensive fulcrums were running straight into Toronto's best defenders. And neither of those teams could rain 3s from 35 feet. Or 28 feet, for that matter. Hell, they struggled from the corner...

Toronto doesn't have a great solution for Curry. If they put Leonard on him, that pulls their best overall defender (and rebounder!) away from the basket and allows GS' secondary playmakers to create miss-matches. If they put anyone else on him, he may score 35 every night.

I agree that GS is vulnerable if Iggy is out, but all signs point to him being fine to play right now. If he goes down, or re-injures himself a few games in... that will probably be too late for Toronto. Don't forget that Kawhi has been fighting injuries this post-season too, and they've been getting worse each round.

Toronto has some pretty good perimeter defenders including Siakim (they put him on Bledsoe), Lowry (a good hustle player and lead the league in charges for a couple years), and Danny Green (although I feel like he plays better defense when he's knocking down his 3 and he's going through a slump. The numbers also indicate that Fred Van Vleet is a good defender. Slowing down the Warriors may be too tough of a challenge but I certainly like the Raptors odds defensively better than the Rockets (Paul,Harden, Tucker, Capella, Gordon) and the Blazers (Lillard, McCollum, Collins, Hood, Harkless). That being said, slowing down Curry seems unlikely unless he suffers an injury.

I think the Warriors run better offenses than either the 76ers/Bucks. Right now I have the Warriors winning in 6 but Leonard could potentially be better than Harden was for the Rockets and Danny Green may find his way out of this slump or perhaps Fred Van Vleet can continue his shooting.

Interesting to note while the Raptors have not made the NBA finals, several of the Raptors players have postseason experience related with to the Warriors.

Leonard/Green- Part of the Spurs team that dispatched the Warriors beta version under Mark Jackson. The Spurs were up 20+ points in game 1 against the Warriors in 2017 before Leonard got injured. Random note If Leonard is healthy in both cases, the 2017 Spurs and the 2019 Raptors would be an interesting matchup

Marc Gasol- He was part of the 2015 Grizzlies team that was up 2-1 against the Warriors. The Warriors ultimately made an adjustment of putting Andrew Bogut on Tony Allen, who was also playing with an injured hamstring.

Ibaka- was part of the OKC team that was up 3-1 against the Warriors that gave the Warriors fits before Klay Thompson and iso ball from the Thunder ultimately did them in.

I still have the Raptors as underdogs but should pose a better challenge than the Blazers who have not beaten the Warriors once when Curry has played.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Danny Green is still a good defender. But he has disappeared offensively.

Van Vleet is also a good defender but had also disappeared offensively until the last 3 games of the Bucks series. Lowry isn't bad defensively, either, though he plays a little differently and isn't a very good matchup for Curry. I don't think any team really has an answer for Curry. The only way to play him is to swarm him and get him off his game a bit and hope the other guys miss. The Raptors absolutely have the personnel to swarm him and without Durant the Warriors are vulnerable to the other guys not having the wherewithal to hit the shots they get. They did against the Clippers, Rockets and Blazers and might still do it again but this is a different task ahead of them. So far in the playoffs the Warriors have gone up against the 21st, 17th and 16th ranked defenses. The Raptors were a top 5 defense and became what looks like the best defense in the league by a significant margin after the Gasol trade - seems even more to be the case after they beat the Bucks who were statistically the best defense in the league.

If Durant comes back at 100%, the Warriors are definitely the heavy favorite. If he doesn't, and the Warriors are stuck trying to give minutes to Cousins, who has never fit very well with that team and has been a horrible negative whenever he's played, or trying to replace Durant with McKinnie or Cook, things get much messier. And if Iguodala isn't 100%, they have even more problems. The Warriors can and will score but they won't score quite as efficiently against the Raptors as they have against the other teams and they're going to need to defend like they haven't had to thus far. They're tried and true, though, and absolutely could pull through. The series is much more interesting if Durant doesn't play.

[FAH1223]

Pascal Siakam, drafted 27th in 2016.

I hate not having a great GM.

The Spurs not getting Siakam or OG back in the Kawhi trade is inexcusable.