Illmatic12 wrote:stevemcqueen1 wrote:Illmatic12 wrote:Furthermore, he can make even more money per/yr if he signs next season because he'd qualify for the 8+ years of service rates.
I actually expect Wall's agent/Klutch Sports will advise him to decline the 4/168M this summer so he can sign for 5/217M next summer (assuming he makes All-NBA again or is an All-Star starter). That's a big difference in guaranteed money. Btw if he leaves the Wizards, he can't make more than 4/140M on his next contract for another team.
I don't think that's correct. The point of the DPE is to let players with less than 10 years veterancy sign a 35% max. That's the highest level of max. The only difference between signing this summer and signing next summer is getting the fifth year--except that he might lose his eligibility for a DPE contract by missing an All NBA team. Since he made third team this year, it'd be stupid for him to hold out for the fifth year by waiting until next summer. By the time an extension signed this summer ended, he'd have 10 years and be able to sign a 35% max anyway. The downside is he could lose a ton of money by having to sign for 30% next summer instead.
Does years of service not affect max extensions? Hmm. Maybe I'm thinking of veteran contracts.
You laid out a good argument as to why he should actually sign it this summer, it seems. Assuming he'll make All-NBA or AS-starter is definitely a risk I personally wouldn't take. Wall could have a great season but miss 15-20 games for a hamstring strain or sprained ankle and end up not being selected.
It doesn't matter for the DPE.
Normally a max contract is:
25% of cap for less than seven years
30% for 7-9
35% for 10+
In this case John has seven years and would have eight next summer and nine by the time he's a free agent. He wouldn't change brackets.
But the DPE has two functions:
1 - It lets a player with less than 10 years of veterancy sign a 35% max
2 - It lets a player sign an early extension for up to five years instead of up to four
However John can't sign a five year extension because he has two years left on his contract. As Dark Faze pointed out to me, a team can't have more than six years of total control over a player, so if John signed a five year extension, that would give us seven. So he's only eligible for four years on his extension.
John would only have two reasons to not sign the DPE this summer
1 - He's betting on himself that he can make another All NBA team next season and he wants the 5th year
2 - He's planning an exit
I calculated the contract scaled to a 109 million dollar cap and a fifth year on the extension is not insignificant. It's almost 50 million dollars. But I don't think the risk is worth it for John to hold out until that fifth year. The potential loss is significant if he can only extend for four years and 30% next summer by losing his eligibility for the DPE.
What I could see John doing is signing a 3 + 1 this summer with the final year being an ETO or player option. That way he can opt out of the final year when he's 31 and either ring chase for the final years of his prime or sign one last mega contract.