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John wall and his $168mil

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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#21 » by Illmatic12 » Tue May 23, 2017 7:40 pm

Dark Faze wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:
he only qualifies for 4 year extension based on being two years removed from his contract year or something like that

if he wants a 5 year extension he has to make all nba again next year

Furthermore, he can make even more money per/yr if he signs next season because he'd qualify for the 8+ years of service rates.

I actually expect Wall's agent/Klutch Sports will advise him to decline the 4/168M this summer so he can sign for 5/217M next summer (assuming he makes All-NBA again or is an All-Star starter). That's a big difference in guaranteed money. Btw if he leaves the Wizards, he can't make more than 4/140M on his next contract for another team.


Making all NBA at the guard spot is really hard to do. You've literally got dame lillard rocking 27, 6, and 5 WITH a playoff seed and not making all nba.

I think Wall cares more about expanding his brand and winning then maximizing his NBA paycheck. Wall knows he's fun to watch, and now he knows he can play at the highest level at his position. I wouldn't be shocked to see him decide to keep his options open. If Wall were to land on the Spurs and guarantee himself 20+ national TV games a year his endorsement potential would explode

You know I don't know if the Spurs are a great example, San Antonio isn't a big TV market.

John can get endorsements anywhere. Westbrook has endorsements in OKC. Whatever endorsement money he thinks he can gain by going elsewhere won't add up to the guaranteed money he loses by walking from the DPE.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#22 » by prime1time » Wed May 24, 2017 2:20 am

The writing is on the wall for John to leave. I posted in the trade thread, but the Wizards do not have a viable way forward to become a Championship contender. If I was John I would start to plan my exit.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#23 » by Wall2Beal4Three » Wed May 24, 2017 3:52 am

prime1time wrote:The writing is on the wall for John to leave. I posted in the trade thread, but the Wizards do not have a viable way forward to become a Championship contender. If I was John I would start to plan my exit.


We can't give Wall that massive extension and improve our bench. I absolutely love Wall and want to make it work with him. It's very depressing.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#24 » by stevemcqueen1 » Wed May 24, 2017 12:39 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:Furthermore, he can make even more money per/yr if he signs next season because he'd qualify for the 8+ years of service rates.

I actually expect Wall's agent/Klutch Sports will advise him to decline the 4/168M this summer so he can sign for 5/217M next summer (assuming he makes All-NBA again or is an All-Star starter). That's a big difference in guaranteed money. Btw if he leaves the Wizards, he can't make more than 4/140M on his next contract for another team.


I don't think that's correct. The point of the DPE is to let players with less than 10 years veterancy sign a 35% max. That's the highest level of max. The only difference between signing this summer and signing next summer is getting the fifth year--except that he might lose his eligibility for a DPE contract by missing an All NBA team. Since he made third team this year, it'd be stupid for him to hold out for the fifth year by waiting until next summer. By the time an extension signed this summer ended, he'd have 10 years and be able to sign a 35% max anyway. The downside is he could lose a ton of money by having to sign for 30% next summer instead.

Does years of service not affect max extensions? Hmm. Maybe I'm thinking of veteran contracts.

You laid out a good argument as to why he should actually sign it this summer, it seems. Assuming he'll make All-NBA or AS-starter is definitely a risk I personally wouldn't take. Wall could have a great season but miss 15-20 games for a hamstring strain or sprained ankle and end up not being selected.


It doesn't matter for the DPE.

Normally a max contract is:

25% of cap for less than seven years
30% for 7-9
35% for 10+

In this case John has seven years and would have eight next summer and nine by the time he's a free agent. He wouldn't change brackets.

But the DPE has two functions:

1 - It lets a player with less than 10 years of veterancy sign a 35% max
2 - It lets a player sign an early extension for up to five years instead of up to four

However John can't sign a five year extension because he has two years left on his contract. As Dark Faze pointed out to me, a team can't have more than six years of total control over a player, so if John signed a five year extension, that would give us seven. So he's only eligible for four years on his extension.

John would only have two reasons to not sign the DPE this summer

1 - He's betting on himself that he can make another All NBA team next season and he wants the 5th year
2 - He's planning an exit

I calculated the contract scaled to a 109 million dollar cap and a fifth year on the extension is not insignificant. It's almost 50 million dollars. But I don't think the risk is worth it for John to hold out until that fifth year. The potential loss is significant if he can only extend for four years and 30% next summer by losing his eligibility for the DPE.

What I could see John doing is signing a 3 + 1 this summer with the final year being an ETO or player option. That way he can opt out of the final year when he's 31 and either ring chase for the final years of his prime or sign one last mega contract.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#25 » by stevemcqueen1 » Wed May 24, 2017 12:45 pm

prime1time wrote:The writing is on the wall for John to leave. I posted in the trade thread, but the Wizards do not have a viable way forward to become a Championship contender. If I was John I would start to plan my exit.


The Wizards are better positioned to contend for a championship than almost every franchise except Golden State and Cleveland. I think John will sign an extension this summer.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#26 » by stevemcqueen1 » Wed May 24, 2017 12:51 pm

Wall2Beal4Three wrote:
prime1time wrote:The writing is on the wall for John to leave. I posted in the trade thread, but the Wizards do not have a viable way forward to become a Championship contender. If I was John I would start to plan my exit.


We can't give Wall that massive extension and improve our bench. I absolutely love Wall and want to make it work with him. It's very depressing.


Wall deserves to be paid what he's worth. He's a top ten player who could move into the top five in the next couple of years. You can pay him a 35% max deal and it could still be a bargain.

The problem with our bench isn't that we won't have the resources to improve it. It's that the guy building it isn't good and he wastes money and draft picks without ever finding mainstays. It baffles me that the same GM who built an impressive starting five also built such a terrible bench. The bench should be the easy part.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#27 » by TGW » Wed May 24, 2017 1:01 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
prime1time wrote:The writing is on the wall for John to leave. I posted in the trade thread, but the Wizards do not have a viable way forward to become a Championship contender. If I was John I would start to plan my exit.


The Wizards are better positioned to contend for a championship than almost every franchise except Golden State and Cleveland. I think John will sign an extension this summer.


And the Spurs. And Houston. And Boston. And maybe even Toronto.
Some random troll wrote:Not to sound negative, but this team is owned by an arrogant cheapskate, managed by a moron and coached by an idiot. Recipe for disaster.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#28 » by stevemcqueen1 » Wed May 24, 2017 1:04 pm

TGW wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
prime1time wrote:The writing is on the wall for John to leave. I posted in the trade thread, but the Wizards do not have a viable way forward to become a Championship contender. If I was John I would start to plan my exit.


The Wizards are better positioned to contend for a championship than almost every franchise except Golden State and Cleveland. I think John will sign an extension this summer.


And the Spurs. And Houston. And Boston. And maybe even Toronto.


I wouldn't trade rosters with any of them. Would you?
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#29 » by Benjammin » Wed May 24, 2017 2:01 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
TGW wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
The Wizards are better positioned to contend for a championship than almost every franchise except Golden State and Cleveland. I think John will sign an extension this summer.


And the Spurs. And Houston. And Boston. And maybe even Toronto.


I wouldn't trade rosters with any of them. Would you?


I would probably trade with Boston given their depth, cap flexibility, and first pick in the draft this year and more picks next year. But for top-level talent right now, the Wizards are stronger, but not as deep.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#30 » by nate33 » Wed May 24, 2017 3:15 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
TGW wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
The Wizards are better positioned to contend for a championship than almost every franchise except Golden State and Cleveland. I think John will sign an extension this summer.


And the Spurs. And Houston. And Boston. And maybe even Toronto.


I wouldn't trade rosters with any of them. Would you?

That's a really good question. What rosters (including future picks) would you swap ours for?

I agree that Golden State and Cleveland are way better.
I'd also take Boston's situation over ours.

Utah is interesting. They're pretty even with us in terms of youth, talent and chemistry.
I might take San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard alone.

Then there's Milwaukee and Minnesota, who have a lot of young talent with potentially transcendent stars, but it's a bit too early to predict their ultimate ceiling.

Other than that, there's no roster I like better.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#31 » by AFM » Wed May 24, 2017 3:20 pm

Boston's situation is better, but I wouldn't trade rosters. If that makes sense.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#32 » by closg00 » Wed May 24, 2017 3:21 pm

We would be contenders today were it not for Grunfeld's slothful and incompetent mgmt.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#33 » by Illmatic12 » Wed May 24, 2017 4:12 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote:
prime1time wrote:The writing is on the wall for John to leave. I posted in the trade thread, but the Wizards do not have a viable way forward to become a Championship contender. If I was John I would start to plan my exit.


The Wizards are better positioned to contend for a championship than almost every franchise except Golden State and Cleveland. I think John will sign an extension this summer.

People are talking as if there are a bunch of teams John can leave to and guarantee that he will contend.

Unless he's gonna sign with the Warriors or Cavs, where is he going to? The other 28 teams are mostly in the same boat as far as being able to win a title, and given that the team has currently on can offer him $70million more in guaranteed money it's a pretty clear advantage
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#34 » by Illmatic12 » Wed May 24, 2017 4:15 pm

nate33 wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
TGW wrote:
And the Spurs. And Houston. And Boston. And maybe even Toronto.


I wouldn't trade rosters with any of them. Would you?

That's a really good question. What rosters (including future picks) would you swap ours for?

I agree that Golden State and Cleveland are way better.
I'd also take Boston's situation over ours.

Utah is interesting. They're pretty even with us in terms of youth, talent and chemistry.
I might take San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard alone.

Then there's Milwaukee and Minnesota, who have a lot of young talent with potentially transcendent stars, but it's a bit too early to predict their ultimate ceiling.

Other than that, there's no roster I like better.

I would consider swapping rosters with the Pelicans, just rosters so I could get Davis and Cousins alone. But the overall situation is so toxic there that it makes it unlikely they will succeed. Terrible ownership, management, coaching, fan base, and they likely won't be able to convince Cousins to stay or for any other top FA to sign there.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#35 » by nate33 » Wed May 24, 2017 4:41 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
I wouldn't trade rosters with any of them. Would you?

That's a really good question. What rosters (including future picks) would you swap ours for?

I agree that Golden State and Cleveland are way better.
I'd also take Boston's situation over ours.

Utah is interesting. They're pretty even with us in terms of youth, talent and chemistry.
I might take San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard alone.

Then there's Milwaukee and Minnesota, who have a lot of young talent with potentially transcendent stars, but it's a bit too early to predict their ultimate ceiling.

Other than that, there's no roster I like better.

I would consider swapping rosters with the Pelicans, just rosters so I could get Davis and Cousins alone. But the overall situation is so toxic there that it makes it unlikely they will succeed. Terrible ownership, management, coaching, fan base, and they likely won't be able to convince Cousins to stay or for any other top FA to sign there.

I considered them, but ultimately, I wouldn't rank them above us.

The way I see it:
* Davis is a bit better than Wall (or at least has more upside given his age).
* Cousins is, at best, equal to Beal in value, but probably is worth less. I wouldn't trade Beal straight up for Cousins, for example, whereas I think the Pelicans probably would.
* Porter has more value than Holiday given his age and health.
* The other Wizards role players under contract (Gortat, Morris, Oubre, Mahinmi) are better than Pelicans role players under contract (Moore, Asik, Hill, Ajinca, Pondexter)

The only way to consider New Orleans to be in better shape than us is if you envision Cousins' maximum upside actually manifesting itself. And I think that's highly unlikely given their personnel.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#36 » by Illmatic12 » Wed May 24, 2017 4:56 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:
nate33 wrote:That's a really good question. What rosters (including future picks) would you swap ours for?

I agree that Golden State and Cleveland are way better.
I'd also take Boston's situation over ours.

Utah is interesting. They're pretty even with us in terms of youth, talent and chemistry.
I might take San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard alone.

Then there's Milwaukee and Minnesota, who have a lot of young talent with potentially transcendent stars, but it's a bit too early to predict their ultimate ceiling.

Other than that, there's no roster I like better.

I would consider swapping rosters with the Pelicans, just rosters so I could get Davis and Cousins alone. But the overall situation is so toxic there that it makes it unlikely they will succeed. Terrible ownership, management, coaching, fan base, and they likely won't be able to convince Cousins to stay or for any other top FA to sign there.

I considered them, but ultimately, I wouldn't rank them above us.

The way I see it:
* Davis is a bit better than Wall (or at least has more upside given his age).
* Cousins is, at best, equal to Beal in value, but probably is worth less. I wouldn't trade Beal straight up for Cousins, for example, whereas I think the Pelicans probably would.
* Porter has more value than Holiday given his age and health.
* The other Wizards role players under contract (Gortat, Morris, Oubre, Mahinmi) are better than Pelicans role players under contract (Moore, Asik, Hill, Ajinca, Pondexter)

The only way to consider New Orleans to be in better shape than us is if you envision Cousins' maximum upside actually manifesting itself. And I think that's highly unlikely given their personnel.

Fair points, it's definitely close. Our roster after the top 2 is far better than there's no contest.

But the argument for NO is of course Anthony Davis. Now while Davis may only be somewhat better than Wall now, Imo Davis' upside projects to be higher than any current player other than LeBron, and he plays a more shallow position. The league is so PG-friendly that even a league average PG can at times put up comparable numbers to the best on any given night (see: Dennis Schroder) but at the PF position, outside of maybe the top 3-4 PFs most of ADs competition is against M Morris caliber PFs. He's a god amongst men at the 4/5 spots

I think if you gave most GMs the choice of AD + Cousins as a starting point, most would take it. But the situation surrounding those two in New Orleans is so deleterious that it's hard to view them in the best light.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#37 » by Dat2U » Wed May 24, 2017 4:59 pm

stevemcqueen1 wrote: It baffles me that the same GM who built an impressive starting five also built such a terrible bench. The bench should be the easy part.


It's not so baffling. A #1 pick is our best player & Two #3 picks are our 2nd & 3rd best players. I don't think our starting 5 is so impressive as Gortat/Morris are both below average starters at their respective positions and were outmatched in both playoff series. The rest of the roster is complete dreck save for some hope with Oubre down the road.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#38 » by Tricky_Kid » Wed May 24, 2017 5:02 pm

I tweeted to Ted about firing EG I hope he will consider this. I thought that they didn't read tweets comments but after Rachel Nichols replied on my tweet I think there is a chance that Ted at least read some of them. If hundreds of posters would tweet about firing EG in short time he can't ignore it!

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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#39 » by stevemcqueen1 » Wed May 24, 2017 6:06 pm

nate33 wrote:
stevemcqueen1 wrote:
TGW wrote:
And the Spurs. And Houston. And Boston. And maybe even Toronto.


I wouldn't trade rosters with any of them. Would you?

That's a really good question. What rosters (including future picks) would you swap ours for?

I agree that Golden State and Cleveland are way better.
I'd also take Boston's situation over ours.

Utah is interesting. They're pretty even with us in terms of youth, talent and chemistry.
I might take San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard alone.

Then there's Milwaukee and Minnesota, who have a lot of young talent with potentially transcendent stars, but it's a bit too early to predict their ultimate ceiling.

Other than that, there's no roster I like better.


Utah is good and they have a nice roster balance and their role players are strong. But I like the core of our roster and our upside better.

It struck me how shallow this Spurs team really is the other day. That coach and that system are really what make them special. They put their players in the best spot to succeed, but the roster outside of Kawhi, Green, and Aldridge really isn't that good any more. I wouldn't trade rosters with them and I wouldn't swap Wall for Kawhi 1:1. I know that San Antonio fans would probably say no to a 1:1 swap too, but I think Wall would look significantly better and Kawhi significantly worse if they traded places.

If Jabari Parker had made the leap this year and hadn't gotten a second serious knee injury, I might consider swapping with Milwaukee. But as is, I don't give up Wall and Beal for just Giannis.

Boston has a way better coach and GM, but I wouldn't swap rosters with them. The draft picks are tempting and they have a nice cast of role players, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Or two birds in the hand in our case. Markelle Fultz and whoever they get early in next year's class could end up being stars. But Wall and Beal are definitely stars. Porter is probably better than Brown. And none of them will have the same career window as Horford and Crowder, plus they're probably going to have to let Bradley walk and move Thomas eventually.

Minnesota is the only one I'd really consider. That'd put us completely clear of the LeBron/Curry/Durant window. But I also don't know how good Wiggins will end up being. And having your transcendent star at PG is a really tremendous advantage.
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Re: John wall and his $168mil 

Post#40 » by prime1time » Wed May 24, 2017 9:13 pm

Eh, you guys are ignoring the fact that other rosters have flexibility. The Wizards roster does not. Look at how the Heat built the big three. Massive Cap space. Look at how the Big 3 was built in Boston, cap flexibility and tradeable assets. Look at how Durant ended up in Golden State, a massive cap increase. The vast majority of the Wiz's roster is a fixed entity 1. And 2, the Wizards do not have many tradeable assets. So to compare another teams roster to ours and say we are better, ignores the fact that other rosters have potential. Also, the question of whether or not the Wizards have a better roster is a red herring, that will only lead to becoming a treadmill team. The question is not if the Wizards have a better roster, but rather do the Wizards have a realistic chance of competing for a championship during Wall's prime.

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